dante booker

Ohio State defense
Yes, in the face. [Bryan Fuller]

Previously: The Offense

Resources: My charting, OSU game notes, OSU roster, Bill C profile, CFBstats, 11W Snap Tracker

To be a college football fan in the Midwest in 2018 means moonlighting as Urban Meyer's sideline psychologist. The cameras are all too happy to oblige us, helpfully cutting to our patient's emotive state after every important event, capturing our client exhibiting all manner of worrying behaviors. He squats. He runs his hands through his hair. He paces. Squats again. Squeezes his face. Buries it in his hands. You have to wonder.

Since I happen to be married to an actual Psychologist I showed her the tape I've been analyzing for weeks, and asked the thing we've all been thinking since Brett McMurphy slimed through a noxious fissure named Zach Smith and revealed what's beneath the program that has owned our league since 2012: Does Urban Meyer look like he's losing it?

I'll spare you the professional details but the gist of her diagnosis was 1) Except in literally the most extreme case of megalomania with narcissistic personality disorder ever recorded, it's impossible to make a clinical diagnosis by watching a person on television, and 2) That's exactly what I look like when I watch Michigan.

Man Watches Sports is a controlled mental disorder. Our fake association with the outcome of a meaningless competitive event decided by randomness and an unequal system of advantages does in fact serve a few purposes. It's a way to belong, and a way to feel unmitigated success in a complex world where the payoffs of victory are abstract and delayed. The losing is good for a different reason: It is a way to break from the constraints of our rational lives and practice being in a state of distress. Your human brain is not wired to believe, on any given Friday, that today is the day you'll lose your livelihood, lose your dog, lose your dad, or find out your best friend at work has to retire at 30 from a disease that the social net doesn't even believe is real. The preparation you put in in practice will show on the field when it's your turn.

That wiring is also the reason that extremely lucky humans tend to mistake felicity for the natural way of things, and pout like spoiled children when they get a small taste of life for everyone else. Ohio State in the Age of Meyer has had it too good. The first time Urban coached The Game the elite athletes he inherited carried pharisaical Tressel off the field. He won a national championship two years later with the all-NFL defense Tressel left him, and a third string quarterback who meritocratically ought to have been starting over the other two. USC got caught lying about the same emolument schemes at the same time, and they're still in Clay Helton Hell to this day.

Urban's record in The Game is both a perfect 6-0, and extremely lucky not to be 2-4, despite a vastly superior team in all but one contest. Last year he again got ham blasted in every aspect of coaching except the recruitment of third string quarterbacks. It's no wonder that a man so favored by fortune should think he could tell bald-faced lies about the garbage assistant he covered for for years, then squeal at the unfairness of it all when the failed institution he so thoroughly corrupted could only get his fireable offense reduced to a week's vacation and three days off from televised therapy.

It's also the reason that Ohio State fans—including Meyer—are doing so much Man Watches Sports this year. Their offense, though schematically closer to the modern NFL than the college game Urban helped shape, is just as lethal as ever. This bad new feeling that's got Buckeyes pacing their living rooms and sidelines is all about having to work through what the common man's defense feels like. It's not a disaster like, say, Michigan's offense last year. Ohio State is 52nd in scoring defense, and 38th in S&P+, in a word: average. They've got a hole at boundary safety, and not quite enough first-class mercenaries trained up to cover for it.

But they're also already a lock to finish at least a game-and-a-half over their expected win total by coming out ahead in two coinflip games and two more dice rolls where they had to get a three or higher. One more catchable throw by a backup QB last week and Michigan's already the Champions of the East while Ohio State fans are left to grumble that the receiver was only open because an offensive lineman blatantly blocked his coverage. Every other sports fan outside of Alabama knows exactly what that's like; an Ohio State student today believes misfortune is having to spend a year with Luke Fickell in charge. Roll a five or a six tomorrow and the super-privileged will get to parade around in their gold pants yet again.

Probabilities, however, cannot account for individual mental states, nor the result of long-developing processes when the payoff has been artificially delayed. Judging by the last three years, Harbaugh's best offensive gameplan in 2018 will be tomorrow's, and the entire arc of his program has been toward preparing this year's charges to play the best game of their careers. That's no guarantee of a win—Michigan remains one snap away from another third-string quarterback, Runyan and JBB/Stueber get another elite edge test, and the interior of Warinner's reclamation project hasn't faced a pair of DTs of this caliber since their 2017 Orange Bowl practices.

I'm terrified, as any sane Michigan fan ought to be given the circumstances. But given what I've seen of Ohio State's defense on film, rationally, I think it's time that the Buckeyes to get some practice for life's real disasters.

The Film: Indiana because I wasn't going to waste last week actually watching Indiana, and Maryland because it's the most recent game against the most recent personnel, and because Maryland's offense is built around a running quarterback in an advanced, condensed, whipsaw scheme that mercilessly tests your assignments, and has to live with an offensive line of basically five guards. I also watched the rest of their games this year in the course of being a Big Ten football person.

The diagram:

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PDF Version, full-size version (or click on the image).

The Charting:

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[the breakdown after THE JUMP]

Today's recruiting roundup recaps last weekend's visits, attempts to figure out the plans of Su'a Cravens, talks new 2014 offers, and more.

Hey Kid, Come Be Charles Woodson

FL CB/S Leon McQuay III was a relatively surprising visitor last weekend, as Michigan hasn't been mentioned much as a player in his recruitment. That may have changed over the course of his trip to Ann Arbor, however, as the four-star defensive back told GBW's Sam Webb that the Wolverines "definitely jumped up," likely into his top five schools ($). Vanderbilt, USC, Florida, Notre Dame, and Stanford are all in the mix as well. McQuay's visit also revealed the potential recruiting impact of Michigan's "Legends" jerseys:

[Leon McQuay Jr., the recruit's father:] "The one thing that hits me is him possibly wearing Charles Woodson’s jersey. I didn’t know that coming in and the way that they do that with the jersey’s and with the players, that’s major, man, when you can decide what kid is going to have the chance to try to fill those shoes.”

When asked about the idea of wearing Charles Woodson’s #2 jersey, McQuay III was at a loss for words, but managed to eek out a few.

“Definitely the love that the coaching staff showed and the campus is amazing and the Big House is amazing, it’s crazy,” said McQuay III.

While McQuay plays safety in high school, Michigan is recruiting him as a cornerback, which is his preferred college position ($). He will graduate from high school in December and enroll early at his school of choice, though there's no concrete timetable for a decision.

Another big-time defensive back considering the Wolverines is CA S Su'a Cravens, who's been the subject of some confusion this week. HuskerOnline reported earlier this week that Cravens was down to three schools($)—Michigan, Nebraska, and USC—and would visit Michigan and Nebraska later this month, but Cravens took to Twitter to refute that report. Cravens's father told Scout's Brandon Huffman yesterday that UCLA, USC, Ohio State, and Michigan are Su'a's actual leaders($), and Rivals's Adam Gorney tweeted today that Cravens will visit Michigan and Ohio State this week, and he may visit Nebraska after if he's so inclined. He'll also visit USC and UCLA once more before deciding on June 6th. The sense is still that Cravens will end up with the Trojans, but we'll see where things stand after his Midwest trip.

While pulling in McQuay or Cravens would be a coup, the Wolverines appear to have a much better shot at MA DT Maurice Hurst Jr., who has now named a top two of Michigan and Virginia ($, info in header). Hurst has set his visit to Ann Arbor for June 2nd, and he plans to decide after his trip—the signs are very positive here. Still, the Wolverines aren't taking any chances at DT, offering TX prospect Hardreck Walker over the weekend, according to Tremendous. Walker stands at 6'2", 280 lbs., and is a four-star on Scout and a three-star to Rivals and 247.

The other big position of need in this class is still wide receiver, and Michigan isn't banking on a commitment from Laquon Treadwell, or, at least, not putting all of their eggs in that basket. MD WR Paul Harris will visit Ann Arbor this summer, and has Michigan in his top four($) along with USC, Tennessee, and Penn State. Tim Sullivan reports that IN WR Mike Rogers will camp at Michigan this summer in the hopes of earning an offer ($). AZ WR Devon Allen has long maintained that he'll see Michigan as part of a Midwest trip, and while Allen states that the Wolverines are still among his favorites, due to his extremely busy track schedule those plans are up in the air ($).

Quickly: VA DE Wyatt Teller now includes Michigan in his top three with Virginia and Virginia Tech, according to Tremendous. TN RB Jordan Wilkins is looking to narrow his list and tweets that the Wolverines are "up there" with Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. IN DE Elijah Daniel names a top 15 that does not include Michigan ($). Happy trails to VA DE Jonathan Allen, who committed to Alabama yesterday.

2014 Updates

While McQuay was the only 2013 visitor last weekend, Michigan also hosted a few sophomore prospects, including four-star in-state QB Chance Stewart. Stewart and OH QB Deshone Kizer appear to be the top two targets at quarterback for the 2014 class, and the coaches want to get a better look at each player before deciding who to offer. Stewart sat down with Al Borges on his visit, according to Tremendous, and Borges reiterated that Michigan would like to see Stewart in a camp setting before extending an offer.

Tremendous also caught up with OH OL Nathaniel Devers, who visited on Saturday and said "Michigan might be my school," though he'll have to earn an offer first—the coaches are still waiting on film. Devers comes from the powerhouse Massilon Washington program, which is the home of 2013 commit Gareon Conley (as well as the former school of ex-Wolverine Justin Turner). OH LB Dante Booker was also on campus over the weekend, and his father told GBW($) that Booker "enjoyed the visit," though he also offered the not-so-lofty praise "he is not ruling them out at this time."

Michigan offered three early Top247 prospects recently. TN WR Josh Malone also holds offers from Tennessee, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and others, and has interest from Alabama—he got his offer from Mark Smith last week ($). CB Nick Watkins plans to check out Ann Arbor this summer while visiting family in Detroit($)—he added Michigan to an impressive early offer list that includes Arkansas, Alabama, and Texas A&M. MO OL Roderick Johnson recently picked up his first offers($) from Michigan, Iowa, and Missouri—at 6'7", 310 lbs., he's got prototypical tackle size as a sophomore in high school.

Today's recruiting roundup discusses a trio of weekend visitors, new offers for both 2013 and 2014, updated rankings for Scout and 247, and more.

Come On Down, Maurice Hurst Jr.?

[Warning: Turn down your speakers, cubicleites.]

MA DT Maurice Hurst Jr. has recently emerged in a big way on Michigan's radar, culminating this week with an offer to the four-star lineman. Tremendous caught up with Hurst the day he got the offer, and with Hurst planning a visit to Ann Arbor soon, his recruitment could wrap up in a hurry:

I talked with Maurice for a split second tonight, who said he plans on visiting in a couple weeks. I also talked to a current commitment and they informed me that Maurice plans to commit to Michigan when he makes that visit. There is a strong possibility that he will be the next member of this class. He's definitely a name Michigan fans need to get familiar with.

Hurst also told Tremendous that he's being recruited as a three-tech—before you ask, I don't think Michigan would stop recruiting Henry Poggi if he committed—and should visit in two weeks or so. Hurst also chose an interesting, and potentially telling, topic for his next school project:

A humble suggestion for some years to explore, Maurice: 1950, 1969, 1986, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2011.

Hurst won't be the only four-star 2013 defender hitting campus soon, as FL DB Leon McQuay III has been confirmed as a visitor this weekend by both The Wolverine and GBW ($, info in picture). McQuay is a top-100 player who can line up at either cornerback or safety, and it appears Michigan is recruiting him as a big (6'2", 186) corner. Joining McQuay on campus this weekend are 2014 OH LB Dante Booker, a recent offeree and one of the top rising junior LBs, and MI QB Chance Stewart, who just earned his first offer from Western Michigan yesterday.

The Wolverines appear pretty serious about tracking down a third corner for the class; on top of McQuay's upcoming visit, Michigan sent out a new offer to four-star TX CB Maurice Smith, who used to play with Troy Woolfolk and tells 247's Clint Brewster that his interest in Michigan is "an eight or nine" out of ten ($). At 6'0", 185 pounds, Smith also fits the mold as a bigger cornerback.

A quick update on the running back situation: Jeff Hecklinski stopped by to see TN RB Jordan Wilkins on Monday ($, info in header). Wilkins is looking to swing by Michigan, Ohio State, and Cincinnati in June or July. VA RB Derrick Green, meanwhile, is still strongly considering Michigan, according to GBW's Andre Barthwell ($, info in header). Wilkins and Green are the top two targets at running back who are still on the board right now.

Updated Scout Rankings: Dawson, Lewis On The Rise

Scout updated their top 300 this week, and while there was mostly limited movement, a couple commits saw big changes in their rankings. MI CB Jourdan Lewis jumped from #251 to #173 while his Cass Tech teammate, OL David Dawson, made a similar leap from #274 to #178. Lewis and Dawson have both been outstanding on the camp circuit recently and were due for an upgrade. On the flip side, IL OL Logan Tuley-Tillman fell from #153 to #190 and MI RB Wyatt Shallman dropped to #263 from #179. Tuley-Tillman has been injured recently while Shallman's stock may be dropping due to his college position (scouts seems to like his potential at DE more than at RB), so those drops aren't unexpected. TTB has the full list of changes for Michigan commits.

Sitting at #75 in the new Scout rankings is a familar face, IL WR Laquon Treadwell, who was profiled by Sam Webb in yesterday's Detroit News. Treadwell reiterates his accelerated timeline while his high school coach mentions that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are the two schools in best position to give the Wolverines a run due to their use of the spread offense and Treadwell's family ties to OSU (his uncle, Ricky Young, was an All-American for the Cowboys). If Treadwell's criteria for a school stays the same, however, Michigan could be tough to beat:

Said Treadwell, to Scout.com: "I am looking for a school that has a great quarterback, a nice coaching staff, a place where I am comfortable, and a place where I like the players."

Check, check, check, and check.

NJ DE Tashawn Bower hasn't been in the news much lately, but that's not because of any lack of interest on Michigan's part, as 247's Todd Worley reports that Curt Mallory has been in contact with him via Facebook "almost on a daily basis," according to Bower ($). Bower will visit Ann Arbor for the BBQ at the Big House in July. After visiting a long list of schools over the summer, Bower will narrow his list down around the start of football season, and there's a good chance Michigan makes his top group.

Quickly: Michigan has told WR Devon Allen that he could play football and run track if he commits ($). Dan Ferrigno stopped by to visit CA WR Demeora Stringfellow this week ($, info in header). HI DT Scott Pagano has a top four($) of LSU, Baylor, Clemson, and Nebraska. CA DT Eddie Vanderdoes plans to take official visits($) to Oregon, Penn State, and Nebraska—no mention yet of which schools are in the running for his other two OVs, should he plan to take them. VA DE Jonathan Allen has a top two($) of Alabama and Florida.

New 2014 Offers, Rankings

It didn't take long for 247 to expand their early 2014 top 25 to a full-fledged top 100, and Michigan offerees already pepper the list. By my count, the Wolverines have already offered 13 members on the list—Touch the Banner has a rundown of some of the notables. [For my own entertainment, NOTY-watch: #14 Raekwon McMillian (shockingly from Georgia, not Staten Island), #26 Demarcus Christmas, #35 Budda Baker, #45 Adoree' Jackson, #54 Jamoral Graham, #56 Jamadre Cobb, #77 Malachi Dupree(!)]

A few more offers went out this week, including one to five-star LA OL Cameron Robinson, a 6'5", 320-pound tackle who already holds offers from Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. Like all of Michigan's recent O-line recruits, he's got a mean streak:

“They saw on film someone that carries his weight well and is very flexible,” [Robinson's high school coach, John] Carr said. “He finishes. When he gets a hold of you, he’s going to ride you and finish. He’s not just a big teddy bear. That’s his mentality – he’s a nasty offensive line throwback.”

One of these days, a coach will describe one of his offensive linemen as a big teddy bear, and it will be adorable until nobody recruits said lineman.

Quickly: Michigan also sent out an offer to TN WR Josh Malone, who also has offers from Ohio State, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. Malone is ranked as the #42 overall player and #3 wide receiver by 247. Also offered($): four-star TX OL Demetrius Knox, who has early offers from Ohio State, Alabama, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and UCLA. According to an interview with Sam Webb, Michigan is in the top five for 2014 NY OT/DE Jay Hayes, though they'll have to catch up to his early leader, Notre Dame ($).