the creeping inevitability of death

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Tracy Abrams, who's still playing for Illinois, guarding a sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

As mentioned in yesterday's Basketbullets, Michigan is already edging towards "must-win" territory in games like this if they want to make the tournament.

This may go into the feelingsball realm, but Michigan has to play with a sense of urgency—especially on defense, where M's effort level seems to directly correlate with their success—that will match that of their opponent. Illinois is in virtually the same position; both teams are 1-2 in the Big Ten and among the last four teams to make the Bracket Matrix field. The Illini desperately need this home win. The Wolverines desperately need their first true road win of the season.

Both KenPom (Illinois -1) and Bovada (Michigan -2) have this as a virtual toss-up. While I hate myself for typing this, the team that plays like they want it the most should be the one that maintains their tenuous grasp on a tourney spot for at least another few days.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	13	Tracy Abrams	Gr.	6'2, 185	66	20	111	No
Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow.
G	5	Jalen Coleman-Lands	So.	6'3, 190	63	17	98	No
Just A Shooter™ beginning to heat up after a rough start to season.
G	21	Malcolm Hill	Sr.	6'6, 225	81	27	119	No
High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls.
F	12	Leron Black	So.	6'7, 220	44	24	106	Very
Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line.
C	33	Mike Thorne	Gr.	6'11, 280	37	20	105	Very
Decent rebounder, good finisher, bad FT shooter, not a rim protector despite size.
F	43	Michael Finke	So.	6'10, 230	51	18	101	No
Stretch four with career 52/36/64 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder.
C	22	Maverick Morgan	Sr.	6'10, 245	43	20	107	Very
Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder.
G	1	Jaylon Tate	Sr.	6'3, 170	50	15	92	Yes
6-for-56 on threes in career, so he'll probably hit four of them tonight.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]