the season has truly begun now
Hey, kids! Death to Comcast! No internet until just now today and my backup plan wasn't working. Apologies. Anyway:
Maybe you can do it after all? Luke Winn is my favorite college basketball writer for pieces like the one he just published on three-point defense. Inspired by Ken Pomeroy's repeated assertions that three-point defense is random* and that you should therefore try to reduce the number of threes opponents get off, Winn looks at the problem in more detail, finding a couple of notable exceptions:
After writing a story on the Pack-Line Defense -- a packed-in, help-oriented man-to-man that Dick Bennett first used at Wisconsin-Green Bay in the mid-1990s -- I couldn't help but notice that three teams running pure Pack-Line this season were among the leaders in three-point field-goal D: Arizona, which ranked third nationally at 28.5 percent; Virginia, which was sixth at 28.9 percent; and Xavier, which was 22nd at 30.5 percent. Meanwhile, two teams that seemed to encourage opponents to take threes, Florida State and Syracuse, also managed to rank in the top 50 in defensive three-point percentage and were top-20 overall defenses in efficiency.
Syracuse in particular demonstrates that three-point defense probably exists in a meaningful way. In the ten years Kenpom has data for Syracuse has finished 8th (out of about 350), 6th, 63rd, 129th, 63rd, 185th, 8th, 22nd, 29th, and 47th in defending three pointers. That's one or two mediocre years, three good years, and five outstanding years. Clearly there's a lot more variance in three pointers**, but you can defend them. There may be a price (Syracuse, unbelievably, was 341 of 345 in defensive rebounding while being 33rd in offensive rebounding), but you can do it.
Also, this is why you are right to pull out your hair at Tim Hardaway long twos:
If you don't think the long twos-vs.-threes argument is important, consider this: While Wisconsin held its opponents to just 0.807 points per possession on three-point attempts -- an amazingly efficient rate -- it allowed just 0.628 PPP on long twos. There's a reason Ryan charts and cherishes the two-point jumpers UW forces outside the paint. The odds on getting beat from that area are miniscule.
Long twos are the worst shot in basketball, and you can get them with 25 seconds on the shot clock because teams don't care if you take them. If there's ten seconds left, sure, go for it. Eschewing the offense in favor of The Worst Shot In Basketball makes Brian crazy.
*[If you look at shooting percentages from the first half to the second half of a season, there is almost no correlation. I think this might be a sample size issue.]
**[Variance for the statistically disinclined: imagine the difference in variability in 50-point 30-foot Rock 'n' Jock baskets versus dunks.]
Feel the love for the system. The Insight Bowl is no longer going to be named after some sort of computer company I think or an abstract concept. They made the mistake of asking the twitter what the twitter thought they might rename it to. If this feels like a softball covered in butter, yeah:
The Tempe Municipal Government Cheddar's Casual Cafe' Quality Food & Service Bowl, at Sun Devil Stadium #NameTheGame
i want a bowl game called the Horrybowl. someone ask Robert Horry if he's interested in starting a liability-only car insurance company.
Jason Kirk's list of suggestions has some excellent candidates:
Molybdenum Ore Bowl
Insane Maricopa County Sheriff Bowl
P.F. Chang's Rock 'n' Roll Arizona Marathon & 1/2 Marathon Bowl
Erosion of public support due to shameless profit-seeking, etc etc etc. This is definitely a meaningful indicator of bowls' public face and not just the internet snarking on stuff.
Basically. Via Ira at WTKA, former Alaska-Anchorage player Justin Bourne responds to a piece on the superiority of the major junior route:
As someone quickly approaching their 30th birthday thinking about what I’d do if I were a young player now deciding between the two, I can’t help but think: I’d have to be awfully damn good to choose major junior hockey over college. It’s not taking anything away from those who choose to go the CHL route, it’s just that one way seems a little more all-or-nothing than the other. Both seem like flying down the highway on a motorcycle, but one affords you a helmet. …
Nobody can say for certain what’s the best route – each player has a different set of developmental needs, and each league fulfills those differently.
But for those who could use a little more time to develop and miiiigghht just want to hedge their bets on the future with an education, college hockey is the way to go.
That's about right. If you're not going to be in the top two rounds, junior is a gamble on a longshot when there's a less risky route that doesn't require you to give up the gamble, or even seem to hurt your chances much. Given the NHL hit rate of secound-rounders, you could argue that even those folks would be making a better decision to go to college.
Unless you just don't want even the tenuous amount of schooling you have to go through to be in college these days, the best argument in favor of the CHL is usually "they offered me money." If so, fair enough.
I would like to see the man behind the curtain, because there is only one. Michigan is investing a cool half-million into a giant curtain they can put in Crisler when it hosts women's basketball and gymnastics events so that the place feels less abandoned. Michigan averaged about 1700 fans per game at basketball last year.
It's probably the right thing to do, but putting up a curtain so attendance at certain sports is less embarrassing is… well, it kind of sums up the whole NCAA thing. The football players make a bunch of money, which is then spent on the strangest things.
Demar lands somewhere nice. Demar Dorsey will play his college ball at Hawaii, so at least he got an adventure out of everything. No, he's not coming here. I just told you he's going to play at Hawaii. No, still not coming. I am beginning to think you have the brain damage.
Etc.: Big Ten hockey hires Steve Piotrowski as its head of officials, which is a good move. Better move would be to clone him and put him on the ice for all games. Piotrowski #1 would be a super Piotrowksi. Dennis Norfleet gets really excited when he blocks a shot, understandably. SBN is making the case for relegation.
NO DEMAR DORSEY IS NOT COMING TO MICHIGAN
A note on ads. Unfortunately, the ads on the sidebar are items I don't have a lot of control over. If I did I'd axe the increasingly booby Evony ads for a multitude of reasons. One is that the site is run by a Chinese gold farming company and does malware things to your computer. Don't click the Evony ads.
A note on diaries. We're pretty lax around here about the quality required to start a thread on the message board once you get to the magic 20 points. Diaries have no such restrictions because a lot of people who have never posted email me stuff that I say they should post as a diary, and that content is usually very good. The tradeoff is that some low-quality stuff ends up there. As the season kicks off and diary frequency increases, low quality ones will get bumped off the front page or deleted wholesale. FWIW. Note that any diary complaining about the fact that people around here don't like you is by definition low quality.
Photos! Paul took bunch of media day photos. Enjoy:
Fred Jackson watches a lot of ESPN. Yesterday this space noted Fred Jackson's tendency to say Player X is the MOST EVER SOMETHING when he followed up his McGuffie most evers with some directed at Denard Robinson*, noting that when someone is always going for the superlative it reduces the high. Ask Don Gately.
But Fred Jackson isn't done:
Jackson said he never has had a speedier group of tailbacks while at Michigan, and he never has had a more physical back than senior Brandon Minor. … "I've coached a lot of tough guys, but I'm going to say right now, (Minor's) probably the toughest back I've ever coached physically," Jackson said.
Fred Jackson uses the most mosts of anyone I've ever read a lot of quotes from, and I've been doing this for years. He would be outstanding on one of those shows where wizened old sports columnists yell inanities at each other.
This is the part where I talk about the content of the article but does it need to be said that Fred Jackson has nigh ludicrous praise for his charges?
"In this group right here, if you miss Carlos Brown on the 1-yard line, he'll go 99 yards; if you miss Shaw, he'll get it around the 20," Jackson said, trying to explain how to gauge their speed. "If you miss Vince, he'll get up to the other team's 40."
I would have pegged Shaw to get a bit farther, but maybe there are still lingering hernia effects.
(BONUS: Is Jackson imbibing blog terminology?
Jackson said he has a "play-selection type thing in my mind" and said specific backs will be used in certain situations.
*(Weird flow of information note: apparently Media Day was the official start time for Denard Robinson shoelace mania, despite the fact that people have known about this thing since he was an uncommitted recruit. All I want to know is "how do the shoes stay on?")
HA! Awwwww, hamburgers. Quick, enjoy a brief moment of schadenfreude that Comcast is having a nasty carriage fight with DirectTV over the status of Versus. DirectTV is talking tough about dropping it. Now stop as you remember where Stanford 24, USC 23 was broadcast. (Also hockey, Tour de France, and uh… rodeo?). Anything that removes the possibility you'll be able to see a ridiculous upset is bad, even if that ridiculous upset is broadcast by evil.
These things always sound worse than they are, though. Before the Big Ten Network came to an agreement with Comcast the two sides' rhetoric could have been confused with Ohio State fans talking about that guy who hit Tyler Moeller. It might not be so grim underneath the posturing.
Etc.: I have some quibbles with Wojo's latest—Rodriguez didn't exactly "drive away" Mallett or Mitchell or Ciulla—but it's a fair assessment of where Michigan stands and accurately diagnoses the subtext of "All In For Michigan." He's the Detroit area's best columnist. Also, FA interviews baseball/volleyball SID Matt Fancett for anyone interested in the PR side of things.