chris hinton

What's he seeing over there? [Bryan Fuller]

Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.

Quickly: Smart, businesslike, solid-based, right-sized DT held back by a sluggish first step.

Draft Projection: 6th round to undrafted free agent. I think he'll end up on a roster, but as deep as the tackle pool is this year, not a lot of teams are going to bother using picks for DTs when they think they can find a guy like Hinton on the practice roster or someone else's. If your team used a Day 3 pick on him, they probably like his upside, and need to fill a hole. You can do a lot worse with a 6th rounder.

NFL Comp: Damion Square, a 5-star DL who played 3-tech at Bama, went undrafted in 2013, and is still bouncing around the league as a backup DT. Like Square, Hinton has the versatility to fill in at several interior positions, and his best move is the swim, which he could further develop in the NFL. Square also struggled as a guy his size shouldn't because his feet were mostly planted on the ground. They were seldom planted in one city for very long however; Square's most notable accomplishment was managing to play for two different teams in the same postseason, the only player to ever do that.

What's his story? A lot of people were surprised that Michigan could pull a 5-star DT out of Georgia, but Michigan's been successful in multiple sports at attracting the kids of prominent pros—Chris being the son of Christopher Jerrod Hinton, the Colts offensive tackle best known as the guy traded for John Elway. Junior rose up the rankings as a DE, fell off when he looked like he'd have to move inside, then charged back to blue chip status when he moved inside as a senior. Michigan in 2019 needed DTs badly, but even 5-star freshmen almost always struggle. Hinton flashed a bit and got blown up by doubles a lot while 4-star classmate Mazi Smith redshirted.

That portended better things, but Hinton was constantly slipping out of the conversation in 2020 while vastly undersized Carlo Kemp started, and Michigan preferred to have Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye (until both were injured) dive into B gaps rather than play another DT. His coaches praised his personality and how much work he was putting into his short-area quickness and change-of-direction, which in retrospect was sort of ominous.

Like the defense, things settled down considerably in Macdonald's system in 2021. Hinton played 3-tech whether Michigan was in a nickel or 5-2. Smith was their best defensive tackle, but Hinton was always in the next breath. Pass rush from him was virtually non-existent, however, and because he had the glory DT position and Michigan's edges were consistently providing opportunities, the lack of any production in that area was quietly a prominent weakness for the defense.

It's the most college thing in the world to react to a player leaving early for the NFL, but the reaction to Hinton's departure was telling. It's not that people were caught off guard, but I can share it wasn't just the college fan-brains saying "Dude, that's a bad idea" with this one. Of course there were a lot of fans saying it when they really meant "Oh man, I really wanted to see him blow up next year!" If he's going to, there's more money in doing it for an NFL team.

Positives: The solid base. Even as a freshman, Hinton was always facing the right way with his feet under him. Doubles had to get him airborne to move him, and then his teammates were able to rally since Hinton was still in the way. Mature beyond his years, was one of the guys most often chosen to look like an adult and answer questions with platitudes as a true junior. Amazing family who will no doubt become part of the local program culture.

Negatives: No explosion, no pass rush, no stats to show for it. At a point in his development right now where he's got the fundamentals down but no pizazz, and few highlights. Body isn't going to help—he's solidly but doesn't have the long arms to erase zone plays or the feet to give NFL-caliber guards trouble (his highlights tend to over-represent bad linemen from Rutgers). If you could yell "You should have stayed in school!" at any prospect ever, it's him.

[After THE JUMP: What others say, scheme fit, grading, video, conclusion]
No no, Chris, Ann Arbor is <--- thattaway! [Bryan Fuller]

This one is out of the blue:

While Hinton was a borderline five-star as a recruit, his grading here and to Pro Football Focus were in line with a decent Big Ten starter, not an early NFL entry. He had two years of eligibility remaining after playing three years at Michigan. That third year was a doozy, however. Hinton improved dramatically over the last offseason after showing merely flashes of the touted recruit in his first two campaigns. That emergence played a major role in the team’s success this season that was every bit as surprising as this decision.

It’s possible that position coach Shaun Nua’s departure had something to do with this, but the far more likely explanation is Hinton is the son of an NFL player, was a Top-50 recruit out of Georgia three years ago, and always wanted to get to the League as soon as possible. A strong finish to the 2021 season probably pushed his draft grade not far from the floor of expectations if he came back for another year and didn’t get injured. That his declaration is surprising doesn’t make it a bad choice, and it's clearly one he didn't make without better advice than fans are capable of providing. We also don’t know what kind of feedback he’s gotten from NFL teams, which are always in need of athletic 300-pounders.

While Hinton’s assumed return along with classmate Mazi Smith was a big part of our hopeful talk for next season’s defensive interior, Michigan is no longer as bereft of options at DT as they were when Smith and Hinton arrived. Hinton’s surprise departure opens the door to shared backup Donovan Jeter’s return for a 6th year. Walk-ons Jess Speight and Joey George could also opt to return for their 6th and 5th seasons, respectfully, after giving the Wolverines good snaps last year and before.

More likely Michigan and its new DL coach will turn to the cupboard that Nua restocked, wherein someone should be quite ready to make an impact. Kris Jenkins contributed this year ahead of schedule, Julius Welschof developed into a weird but functional DE/DT, and touted recruit Rayshaun Benny could sophomore leap his way into heavy playing time next year after showing more flashes than a young Hinton in a redshirted freshman campaign. Michigan also added George Rooks last year, and a potential immediate-impact guy in Mason Graham this cycle.

In good news, this announcement pushes last night’s basketball game off the front page of MGoBlog. So there’s that.

Reasonably. [Patrick Barron]

Event notice: Nevermind it's canceled. 

Formation Notes: Iowa lined up their FB/2nd TE in a lot of different ways. I mostly treated him as a TE, so this is “Offset 12 SB” meaning offset shotgun with 1 RB and 2TEs, one of them as a “superback.”

image

Michigan matched this personnel group with 5-2 personnel then had Jaylen Harrell act as a true LB if they flexed the TE. Sometimes Michigan would substitute Harrell for Michael Barrett depending on the down/distance.

Substitution Notes: A lot more five-man fronts in this one, though Michigan learned to use a 4-3 (with Barrett) when Iowa went two-TE on passing downs. First three-man DT unit was Hinton-Smith-Jenkins, and second unit was Jeter-Speight-Welschof. Morris came in as a passing downs DT or Hutchinson’s backup.

[After THE JUMP: Three! Three plays and out again, ah ah ah!]

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