butt (not jake butt)

The pads are on, we have final decisions from 2/3 opt-outs, and there are a few canisters of hype to unload, but we have to lead off with some incredible news:

Don Brown says two of the most improved players along the defensive line have been Julius Welschof and Taylor Upshaw. Says Upshaw has gotten a lot bigger. "Taylor, he didn't even have a butt a year ago. Now he's got a butt."

— Orion Sang (@orion_sang) September 30, 2020

We stopped sending people to pressers recently which is a shame because there was nobody there to ask the obvious follow-up questions. Rest assured, audience, we know this is important to you and we will get answers. About butts.

GUYS AVAILABLE/UNDISCUSSED: Over the course of camp the coaches have been mentioning players they're "just getting back," or who "weren't available for a time." Other names we expected to be in the mix are being left out of rundowns. Historically when a coach isn't saying a player's name it's a bad sign. In some cases it might be. But keep in mind there might be another reason this year a player might not be with the team for 14 days, a reason that they don't want to say out loud. I emphasize this is NOT from any insider information.There are many reasons other than the 2020 reason for players to be sidelined—after so much time off it would be weird if there weren't a few strains—and coaches are loathe to share those. The point is it's more foolish to speculate on absences this fall.

Quarterback

Always two there are. [Patrick Barron]

What we want to hear: A definitive reason McCaffrey is leaving.

What we're hearing: The quarterback battle is dead, long live the quarterback battle. We've spent the last two podcasts talking past each other about whether that's a good Milton thing or scary thing. Balas posted something in a recent ITF($) that's nearly word for word what an insider emailed me:

First off, the Joe Milton hype is now off the charts. Yes, he's dropping dimes on the long ball. And yes, he's made huge strides.
No, he isn't perfect, and people shouldn't expect him to be. He'll still miss the occasional crossing pattern, etc. But he has made huge strides, and he's got the confidence and leadership that make his teammates around him trust him and want to win for him.

The next step in the program's playbook is to pump up Cade McNamara as the new McCaffrey. And so:

"He’s made as many big-time throws as Joe," Gattis said. "Probably about the same number. There's some 'wow' plays." …

"I think Cade will appreciate this: the first four days that we came back, Cade was in a little bit of a funk," Gattis said. "He was more so in freshman mode where he was used to being on the scout team last year, not necessarily getting a lot of the full-speed reps. It took him about four or five days and then literally about day five, I saw him make a throw in practice and when he hit it, he kinda nodded his head three times like he was playing a song in his head.

"And ever since then he’s been on fire."

Harbaugh's line was "Put a talented guy out there and see how it goes," on Jansen's podcast. He also said "We're testing negative and staying positive" which would make a good bumper sticker. Don Brown has been less diplomatic:

“Great leader,” Brown said. “Here’s what I’ll tell you about Joe Milton: Joe and I have a great relationship. Joe will come into my office and ask me about coverage. … He’s reaching out, he’s trying to get better every day, he’s trying to be smarter with concept.”

“He’s another one of those infectious guys, got a smile on his face all the time,” Brown said. “Ready to go to work. And I have never seen a young man with a stronger arm than this guy. He can let it rip.”

Gattis seems to be feeling the Milton Experience:

"When we see a ball travel like that, 70 yards, it’s very hard to track a ball that long and still get pinpoint accuracy on each one of the throws," Gattis said. "I’ve got to the point now where I’ve told the receivers 'don’t stop running.'"

Ronnie Bell, who spent the offseason training with Milton, is also feeling it:

I talked about it with one of the guys about a week ago, and this is the best I’ve ever seen Joe. … he’s just lights out right now. It’s just very exciting to play alongside him.

What it means: Joe Milton is the quarterback, was probably looking good enough that McCaffrey bolted. The other quarterback, who isn't a true freshman late low-3* pickup because their QB of the class medically retired, is the other quarterback, and an offseason always needs two.

You Might Remember This Position Group from Such Former Seasons As: 2012 after Denard got injured. Do you remember Devin Gardner running around lost in the backfield as Wildcats swarmed around him, then he somehow got the ball out? Do you remember that pinpoint bomb to Jeremy Gallon against Minnesota? Do you remember how if anything happened to Gardner it was Russell Bellomy and air? Do you remember that at the end of all of that the numbers were actually pretty incredible? Strap in.

Depth Chart: 1. Milton, 2. McNamara

[After THE JUMP: Introducing the Michigan Secondary Panicometer. It is pronounced like thermometer]

I wish I had anything other than grimace emojis to show you. Michigan announces limited seating at Michigan Stadium this fall "if U-M is able to have a 2020 football season":

• There will be no football season tickets. Status as a season ticket holder remains unchanged, and season ticket locations will be retained for the 2021 season.
• If U-M is able to have fans at Michigan Stadium, all home games will be sold on an individual game basis, with sales limited to current season ticket holders and students. There will be no ticket sales to the general public.
• For season ticket holders who elected to adjust their season ticket location/quantity during the June upgrade period, that new location/quantity will be retained for the 2021 season.
• Details regarding a potential individual game sale will be communicated once a decision on playing with or without fans is finalized.
• In the event that Michigan is able to have fans at any sporting event this season, all forms of ticketing will move to a mobile platform.

We've heard on background that we're looking at maybe 20k people, most of them students. Obviously this is a developing situation, as they say. If I was a betting man I'd guess the number of fans would be zero.

[After the JUMP: sucking yet more air through teeth]

Last week we took a look at run defenses, and concluded that Rutgers isn’t the steaming pile of hilarity we’re all expecting. This week, we’re taking the same look at pass defenses. Spoiler alert: Rutgers IS the steaming pile of hilarity we’re all expecting. If not steamier and… uh… more pile-like. The question at hand is as follows: who will have the best pass defense in the Big Ten in 2014?

If you’ve forgotten, we’re just taking a simple two-step process: we look at how good teams were last year at a thing, and we look at attrition among the folks responsible for the thing. Our key assumptions are as follows:

• Experience is good and, all other things being equal, makes things better than they were.

That’s it.

Were they good last year?

Again, this is the easier piece.

Yards per attempt allowed, adjusted for sacks: YPA is generally considered the statistical gold standard for overall goodness of passing games, so it is a pretty useful stat for demonstrating pass defense (It is almost certainly superior to cumulative stats. Yards per game can be misleading based on differing numbers of attempts; Purdue was middle of the pack in terms of YPG allowed, but that’s only because they faced fewer passes because their run defense was so ungodly atrocious, and they were usually behind, so offenses didn’t really feel the need to throw the ball).

We've adjusted for sacks, counting a sack as a pass attempt, which makes sense because if you drop back five times, and complete one pass for 10 yards while getting sacked four times, your yards per attempt should really reflect the fact that attempting to pass went poorly most of the time.

Passing S&P+ Defense: Click the link for a thorough explanation, but it is an advanced statistical model analyzing what defenses allow on a given play against what you would expect. Advantages are that it takes opponent strength into account, it factors in sacks, and it filters out garbage time. Numbers are national rankings.

20+ yard passing plays per game: Completions happen. A team will often gladly offer an opponent a 10 yard completion on 3^rd and 17. But 20+ yard completions are a strong indication of a pass defense prone to breakdowns, and one that cannot do the thing it is trying to do.

Sacks per game: Sacks can be either a cause of good pass defense or a symptom of good pass defense. A quality pass rush will lead to better defensive results when the opponent tries to pass the ball (see: Nebraska and Ohio State), and solid coverage will lead to more chances for the pass rush to get home with “coverage sacks” (see: Michigan State). It’s hard to separate the two causal possibilities, but for our purposes we don’t need to. They’re both good.

Putting it together

Here is how the teams shake out in rough order of how they fared in the above categories, with emphasis on the first two categories.

Like last week the teams generally break out into four tiers:

• MSU – MSU.
  • Again, they get their own tier because obviously.
• Pretty Good – Iowa, Wisconsin.
  • Great YPA numbers, minimized big plays, didn’t get home much on pass rush.
• Meh - Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota.
  • The great undifferentiated mass of mediocre pass defenses. All allowed between 5.87 and 6.30 YPA (other than Maryland, who played a weaker schedule last year). All but Northwestern had S&P+ pass rankings between 41st and 64th.
• Butt (NJB) – Purdue, Rutgers, Indiana, Illinois.
  •  If you’re curious, all four of these teams performed comparably with, and perhaps even worse than, Michigan’s 2010 pass defense.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Attrition tolls for thee. If thee be Ohio State or Nebraska]