I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
One Play. I got really into this piece by Brhino where he went over Michigan football seasons going back to the "Year of Infinite Pain" (i.e. 2005) to point out games where one play may have meant the difference. Interesting way to reassess how we view the seasons. For example this year's team was a couple things going right away from 11-1 and a BCS bid (MSU would have still have won the Bo Division, with BCS eligibility riding on that), and a couple of things going wrong away from 4-8. I chart:
Bicking makes it cligger.
Quibble: I may be stretching "one play" too far, but Football Armageddon had that late hit out of bounds by Crable on 3rd and 15. OSU scored on that drive to go up 10. Who knows if Michigan can drive the ball the same as they did on the next possession. NFL win probability calculator says OSU was 79% to win if Crable doesn't make that hit, and 91% after the call. Fan brain says Michigan would have drove for the victory, beaten essentially the same Florida team they played the following year, and cured cancer.
Trend Lines. If you're into seeing how the rest of the Big Ten progressed on offense as this season did, dnak followed up last week's Michigan chart with some for the rest of the field. MSU is a young offense slowly growing up, Michigan's is one coached by insane people.
Hypothesis: UConn was just a bad game and the coaches over-responded to it, putting themselves behind the 8-ball the rest of the season. I submit as a different model Penn State, which had more than a few personnel shortages but big talent in places and stuck with their scheme all year, seeing noticeable progression but no spikes until the last game.
Goals! The Corsi Charts have been shelved for the moment so MGoBlueline can do those goal analysis things I like much better anyway:
Compher wins the faceoff, which is huge. Even more important, however, is that DeBlois is able to tie his man up. This allows a clean tap across from Compher to Guptill…
The OSU weekend's tallies at the link.
Charity. Tomorrow is Adopt-a-Shelter and both sites still could use some volunteers. K.o.k.Law had a tailgate at the house next door to MGoPatio, the cause being to fix up the house of an 11-year-old with a terrible illness.
Weeklies. Turnover Analysis talked about the Countess interception, which had a negative result of half a point. I still would have taken it; I think Furman stood there amazed for a second while OSU's receivers recovered, and if he hadn't he was in the exact right spot to make a key block. Turnover margin has been steadily climbing to the good since UConn, though the offense going into a shell to make that happen might have negated the good that's done. Inside the Box Score. Best and Worst talks about Ben Gedeon. LSA's usual stuff.
[Jump to learn an important lesson about swearing.]
After Jabrill Peppers announced his intention to take official visits, multiple outlets speculated that this brewing storm could very well blow over by the time Peppers has finished taking his official to Ann Arbor next weekend. According to Mike Farrell, that appears to be the case ($):
Paramus (N.J.) Paramus Catholic cornerback Jabrill Peppers made a huge splash last week when he tweeted that he was going to take official visits despite his commitment to Michigan. Now the word is that Peppers will take his official visit to Michigan on Dec. 13 with his mom and that will likely end the process. Alabama appeared to be the biggest threat to the Wolverines, but now I hear that most close to Peppers want him to stick to his word and play in Ann Arbor. Stanford was the only school everyone green lit and that apparently isn't going to happen this late. Michigan coaches will be on hand en force this Friday for Peppers' final game and then the following weekend I expect them to close things out on his official. Crisis averted barring a surprise.
Further corroboration comes from Peppers himself, who contemplated his future Michigan uniform number on Twitter yesterday:
— Breezy (@JabrillPeppers) December 5, 2013
In this case, the (mis)use of "Big Blue" is completely forgiven. The important part is Peppers wanting to follow in Charles Woodson's footsteps.
THIS CALLS FOR A FEAST.
Coach Hoke had a nice feast with the Mone family last night for his in-home visit. pic.twitter.com/DaKu7m8S0q
— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) December 4, 2013
Forks are for spread enthusiasts, anyway.
[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on Malik McDowell's top schools and visit plans, the 2014 running back situation, visit reactions from The Game, and more.]
Bye Week Visits: A Trip To Colorado (No, Not For That)
Well played, Maison Bleue.
Last weekend's bye afforded the coaches an opportunity to hit the recruiting trail, and Michigan coaches checked in on the likes of top 2015 MN DE Jashon Cornell, 2015 four-star NC OL Mason Veal, 2015 four-star RB Nasir Bonner, 2015 NJ WR Irvin Charles, and several others.
The most interesting prospect to receive a visit, however, is 2014 ATH Kalen Ballage, as Coach Funk stopped by his school last week, per Sam Webb ($). Michigan originally recruited Ballage as a running back, and it's been long thought that the Wolverines had cooled on him—that obviously isn't the case, even if Ballage is simply a backup option, and the fact that he can also play linebacker or safety is likely fueling at least some of Michigan's renewed interest. With a few spots left in the class and only a handful of prospects under consideration, his versatility could be the key should he want to end up in Ann Arbor.
[EDIT: Per Brandon, Michigan may not have talked to Ballage at all:
Just talked with 2014 ATH/RB Kalen Ballage and he tells me that the #Michigan coaches did NOT visit him.
— Brandon Brown (@CoachBrown3) October 28, 2013
Webb is pretty plugged in and I can't find any sort of retraction from him; since there are rules about contact with recruits, it's possible Funk stopped by Ballage's school but never actually was in contact with him. I'll try to clarify the situation when more information is available.
UPDATE TO THE EDIT: Per 247($), school was not in session when Michigan dropped by; the Wolverines are still recruiting Ballage but obviously didn't talk to him first-hand when they were out there.]
Another visit recipient that caught my eye: 2015 NC jumbo athlete Anthony Rush, who told 247's Steve Lorenz that Michigan is "leaning towards" extending an offer ($). Rush is listed at 6'4", 280 pounds as a junior, and the Wolverines are recruiting him as a tight end. Clearly, the coaches would like more blocking and size up front—most schools are looking at Rush as a defensive tackle.
Prepare For PANIC
(Aw, crap, it's already started.)
As you're probably well aware, Da'Shawn Hand took his official visit to Alabama over the weekend, and reports from the trip have been quite positive. Here's Hand himself:
This visit couldn't of been any better. Had a great time in T-Town
— Da'shawn Hand (@TheHand54) October 27, 2013
Despite the good visit experience for Hand, Alabama insiders around the internets seem to think the Tide still have ground to make up if they're going to catch Michigan; if that's the case, the Wolverines just have to survive Hand's official to Florida—just five days before his Nov. 14th announcement—and they should be in the clear. Still, Alabama is a serious contender, and that's always a frightening opponent to face on the recruiting trail.
To keep the good times rollin', Malik McDowell took a surprise visit to Ohio State for their evisceration of Penn State; he was his usual verbose self in the aftermath:
On my way home from Ohio State. Good game.
— BIG LEEK SOSA (@D1_LEEK) October 27, 2013
At this point, I might be more confident in Hand ending up at Michigan than McDowell, for the sole reason that we have some idea about what Hand thinks about Michigan, while getting information out of McDowell is like breaking into Fort Knox. If I had to bet, I'd wager both land at Michigan, but there's plenty of uncertainty.
[Hit THE JUMP for commit stat updates, the newest 2015 offer recipient, and more.]
2015 Quarterbacks: The Overview
Kevin Dillman (L) and Kyle Kearns (R)
The most pressing question regarding the 2015 class is which quarterback Michigan will offer next; our own Brandon Brown posted a detailed overview of the candidates on Sunday, and since we had a lot of content over the weekend I'd like to highlight it again. Here's the upshot, though you're strongly encouraged to check out the whole thing:
As the high schools seasons near and pass the midway point, evaluations are beginning to take shape and I heard Sam Webb say that he expects an offer or offers to be dealt within the next month or two to a 2015 quarterback prospect. I believe it will be to someone on this list and I’d rank these prospects as follows:
- Kevin Dillman
- Kyle Kearns
- Riley Neal
- Sheriron Jones
- Brady White
- Nick Johns
- Alex Malzone
I think Dillman should be priority #1 based on his film. He’s a gamer and has a toughness and a quality about him you like to see at the quarterback position.
We've reached something of an MGoConsensus in wanting Dillman to get the next offer.
There's a lot of local support for Brother Rice quarterback Alex Malzone, and while he doesn't appear to be in line for the next offer or two right now, he'll get a chance to prove himself in front of the coaches, per Scout's Allen Trieu ($):
"Coach Borges said I'm definitely on their radar and that I'm having a great year. He wants to see me throw live, so I think they're going to try to come to the Catholic League Championship Game on October 26th since it's their bye week."
Malzone was at Saturday's game and said he "loved the visit." If offered, he's probably a lock to commit. With Michigan's very limited 2015 class size, they'll take only one quarterback in the cycle—with Malzone in their backyard, the coaches can wait to offer him while evaluating all of their potential options and guaging their interest.
Rivals released an unordered list of the top ten "out of state steals" for the 2014 class, and the obvious choice is obvious:
DB Jabrill Peppers, Paramus (N.J.) Paramus Catholic
Peppers is the type of player that can fill that Charles Woodson/Patrick Peterson role for Michigan. It was very impressive that the Wolverines' staff was able to go out to the East Coast, away from their traditional recruiting grounds, and grab one of the top players in the country. In addition to his abilities on the field, Peppers' character and leadership attributes are something that coach Brady Hoke and company really like.
Damon Webb also makes the list; if you feel sad about that at all, look up.
Speaking of Peppers, he's at #3 in the latest 2014 Top247. Michigan's commits all stayed in essentially the same place; you can see the full rundown at Touch The Banner.
[Hit THE JUMP for the latest Wolverine commit to get an All-American invite and a roundup of the top statistical performances from last weekend.]
In case you haven't noticed, FBO has taken a back seat this year while I've focused more on other work (FFFF, GIFs, the hoops preview mag, etc.) and attempted to save my body the wear and tear that led to me barely hanging on through basketball season. Instead of spending my Fridays heading out to games, I've been looking for online streams of Michigan commits and other available film to break down. In that vein, if you're in the area of a U-M commit or target and are interested in filming a game for me to analyze, please email me.
Highland vs. East Overview
This game did not got well from Highland's standpoint, as the Rams coughed up seven(!) turnovers and managed just 128 yards of offense in a 29-7 loss. The defense barely had time to breathe between possessions and the turnovers repeatedly put them in tough situations:
Four of Highland’s six first-half possessions resulted in turnovers — two fumbles, two interceptions — and East’s average starting field position on those four drives was Highland’s 31-yard line.
Good teams make a living punishing mistakes, and East did just that.
After missing a field goal following their first takeaway, the Leopards punched the next three into the end zone to open up a 22-0 halftime lead.
East's triple-option attack allowed them to largely avoid Mone on the interior while hitting the edge or utilizing play-action to move the ball down the field—the star of the game was one of East's wing-backs, Malakai Solovi, who rushed 104 yards and a pair of TDs as Highland repeatedly lost contain. The Rams offense was unable to generate anything even when they weren't giving away possessions, leading to a rote blowout.
Bryan Mone Film
Film courtesy of WATCHit Network, which has the whole game available on YouTube.
This is just about every snap of Mone on defense (he also played several snaps at offensive guard, and a couple late cuts to the action made it impossible to see him on a couple defensive snaps). As you'll see, the plays are broken down into categories. This is when I note that I'm not a coach or even a former player, so if I've filed something as good that's actually bad, or vice versa, please point out my error in the comments.
Apologies for some of the quick cuts and hard-to-read descriptions; next time I'll leave more room between snaps so it's easier to point out a player and add commentary. If you have any suggestions for the format, as always, let me know in the comments.
[Further impressions from the film can be found below THE JUMP.]
Shaun Crawford, Mini-Jabrill
A much-anticipated matchup between Cleveland.com's top-ranked Cleveland St. Edward squad and #9 Cincinnati Elder didn't live up to the hype, as St. Eds ran away with a 48-7 victory. Much of the credit for the blowout goes to 2015 commit Shaun Crawford, whose stat line looks like one posted by a certain other defensive back headed for Ann Arbor:
@TomVH Shaun Crawford: 9 carries, 124 yds, 2 TDs 3 receptions, 28 yds, 1 punt return 63 yds, TD, 1 kick return 25 yds. 240 all-purpose yds
— Brad Bournival (@bbournival) September 22, 2013
Yes, it appears Michigan may have the best player on the best team in Ohio, and he's only a junior. This is nice.
Jabrill Peppers, Still Jabrill
2014 commit Jabrill Peppers, meanwhile, did a little bit of everything to lead Paramus Catholic to a 35-21 victory over DePaul. Peppers rushed seven times for 41 yards, caught four passes for 49 yards and a TD, returned a kickoff for 47 yards, tallied four solo tackles, recorded three pass defenses, and returned an interception 32 yards for another TD.
[Hit THE JUMP for more outstanding performances by Michigan commits, plus an interesting development in JuJu Smith's recruitment.]