brandon graham

Before we start, I should point out an actual football coaches' actual opinion on these matters: GSimmons has done some breakdown at Three and Out. Here's the first quarter, the second quarter, and the third quarter.

I'll pull selected highlights on some big plays; I didn't look at these until I had done the UFR on my own to keep my opinions untrammeled.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O17	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Thompson	1
FB motions in from the slot actually. Mouton(+0.5) is blitzing, meeting a pulling guard in the designated hole; Thompson(+1) reads the play and attacks said hole before an OL can get out on him; Ringer buried at the line.
O18	2	9	Ace 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Graham	-7
I have an SD version of the game this week and so don't have much vision downfield; Hoyer looks and pumps, but decides not to throw (cover +1); Graham(+1) zooms around the right tackle as this happens; Jamison(+0.5) and Mouton(+0.5) are also crashing into Hoyer; the trio sacks. (Pressure +2)
O11	3	16	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Post	Ezeh	23
Another three man rush sees Taylor loop around on a ludicrous stunt; no one anywhere near Hoyer (pressure -2) and he can step into the pocket and fire comfortable. Mouton is sitting in a useless short zone and the other linebackers fail to get an adequate drop on third and sixteen, opening up a post. (Cover -2.) Eight men in coverage in third and sixteen and they don't get proper drops. GSimmons: "corners great job squeezing the fades, lb's terrible job holding inside verticals... strong safety and and the lb to the top of the screen are not closing the window far enough between themselves.. lbs have to be closer to the back hip, and the safety (number 5) has to give a little less cushion, here we say protect the sticks, and we didnt do that."
O34	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Pitch sweep	Warren	2
For whatever reason no one blocks Warren, who's in press coverage, and he closes on the ball, forces it back inside, and tackles. (Warren +1.)
O36	2	8	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Delay	Mouton	3
Doubles on both DLs leave the linebackers largely unmolested; Taylor gets blown back by his but takes long enough that there's no downfield release. They're running the FB at Mouton(+1), who shoots up into the hole and stands the FB up. Ringer decides to cut more up the middle; Mouton tracks from behind and, with Thompson, tackles. Nice play from Mouton.
O39	3	5	Ace 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Brown	61
Surely this calls for like a third corner or something, no? Mouton's(-1) lined up in man coverage over the slot receiver and does poorly with it (cover -1), opening up a slant for the first down; Brown(-3) whiffs an upper-body arm tackle, turning it into a touchdown. Varsity Blue went inside the play on this. GSimmons: "this is 100% the fault of number 8 on the catch, 100% on brown for it turning into a td...."
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 12 min 1st Q. Someone keeps emailing me with a theory: Brown is shaving points. I laughed at him the first time.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O28	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Pass	PA FB Flat	Thompson	3
Cissoko in for Trent on this drive; Brown replaced by Stewart. Thompson(+1) reads this well, getting out to tackle immediately on the catch (cover +1)
O31	2	7	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Thompson	13
Not sure what the presnap alignment is because we're looking at Mike Hart; in any case Thompson(-1) doesn't get outside fast enough on this and gets cut by the FB, who lined up in the slot, delaying his pursuit and allowing Ringer outside.
O44	1	10	Ace big	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Ezeh	8
Johnson(-0.5) slanting at the snap and punched out of the hole by a single blocker, opening up a hole on the inside, but it's Ezeh(-1) who's mostly at at fault, failing to take advantage of the downfield blocker picking out another linebacker and overrunning the play to the outside.
M48	2	2	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Mouton	4
Excellently timed blitz from Mouton(+1) gets him in the gap where the guard is pulling from; the backside tackle ends up tackling him as he attempts to haul down Ringer; no call. Graham crashes inside in an attempt to jam the play up and force it to bounce outside but ends up shoved past the play, opening up a small hole Ringer can squeeze through.
M44	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Pass	Fly	Jamison	Inc
Graham(+0.5) and Jamison(+0.5) are both coming around their tackles to pressure Hoyer as he throws deep; Jamison actually hits him, it appears. (Pressure +1) Hoyer's pass is thus totally inaccurate; good thing for State, as Cissoko(+1, cover +1) was running this guy's route for him.
M44	2	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Johnson	4
Johnson(+0.5) burrows down against a double team, managing to hold up a couple guys at the LOS and providing an angle for Ezeh to run-blitz into, forcing the play outside. Jamison(-1) has been blown way back off the LOS, opening up a significant amount of room; he and others converge after a few yards.
M40	3	6	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	Thompson	Inc
Thompson(+1) jumps out on Ringer's little out route, making Hoyer hesitate(cover +1), by which time Graham's stunt around Johnson is beginning to get up the middle; Hoyer rolls out as Johnson chases him, eventually tossing it OOB.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 7 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O38	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	--	4
These things are getting monotonous: double both DTs, knock them back a little bit, get no crease, big wad of players a yard or two downfield, somewhere between two and four yards. I have no kudos or blame to hand out on this one, just a bunch of dudes a few yards downfield and such.
O42	2	6	Ace	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Graham	-18
An attempted screen that Hoyer brings down—never a good idea—because Graham(+1) is in the throwing lane. (Cover +1) Unsurprisingly, players are now all over Hoyer, who's shoved to the ground by Brown. Hoyer holds the ball out like he's trying to break his fall with it and the ball pops out.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-7, 2 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Taylor	0
Taylor(+1) takes on a single blocker, initially standing him up, then flowing a couple steps over to tackle at the LOS.
O25	2	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Mouton	1
Mouton(+1) again stands up the fullback in the hole, preventing any possible lane to either side of him and delaying Ringer; Taylor(+0.5) again burrows through to take Ringer down after he delays. Second time they've run an iso right at Mouton and he's stoned the FB.
O26	3	9	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Dumpoff	Ezeh	12
Another three man rush, this one more of a two-man rush as the DT isn't even moving upfield. The DEs do a good job of getting upfield, forcing Ringer to move up into the pocket, and if, you know, there was anyone else rushing the passer this is a likely sack. There is not. Okay, eight guys in a zone, right? Well, Hoyer dumps it off to Ringer after Mouton shoots up to tackle him; Ezeh(-1) overruns the tackle and opens up first down yardage. How many times have we seen Ezeh miss a tackle after a short reception this year? Don't answer that. (Cover –1.)
O38	1	10	--	--	Penalty	Illegal sub	--	5
This is on Woolfolk, who came in on the last play for the first time in a long time.
O43	1	5	I-Form	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	Graham	Inc
They go play action on first and five; they appear to be looking for a bomb. Graham(+1) reads it, though, and gets up on Hoyer, hitting him as he releases. Hoyer's just chucking it OOB anyway. (Pressure +1)
O43	2	5	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Taylor	4
Okay, I'm going to start dinging Taylor(-0.5) on these, as he's getting pushed out of position by these doubles and allowing the creases in the line. The rest of it is the usual: guys pulling into a gap between a DE and a DT, linebackers meeting them, wads of players, somewhere between 2 and 4 yards.
O47	3	1	I-Form Big	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	--	2
The usual; a mass of bodies that it's near impossible to pick anything in particular out of. This time it's two yards.
O49	1	10	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Penalty	False start	--	-5
Oops.
O44	1	15	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	13
State's got three receivers in a bunch formation here to one side with all of them running routes of moderate depth; Michigan rushes four on a five-step drop and does not get there (pressure -1). Hoyer hits his receiver a couple yards short of the sticks (cover -1). GSimmons: "bobo doesn't trust the safety help, and worry about the flag route here instead of the smash, notice on the bottom of the screen how warren allows the vertical player to clear to the safety, and sits on the flat route, that's how it should have been played... "
M43	2	2	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Harrison	9
Believe this is supposed to go just outside of the tackle but behind a pulling guard; Michigan slants a DE into the intended gap, forcing a bounce out that Harrison(-1) overruns, whiffing a tackle and sending Ringer into the secondary. A diving Ezeh tackle prevents a longer gain.
M34	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	7
FB motions out to make this a three-wide set, actually, and he's open in front of Cissoko(-1)? Jeez, man, I think you can risk your recovery speed on this guy. (Cover -1)
M27	2	3	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Jamison	1
Jamison(+0.5) slants down the line, driving his guy back into the pulling guard and taking him out of the play; Stewart(+1) is left unblocked, then, and makes a good tackle on Anderson, the backup RB, stopping his momentum and driving him back after contact. Anderson pops free momentarily, only to cough the ball up. Ezeh(+1) knocks it loose, but I don't think he was trying to.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-7, 12 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O21	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	End-around	Brown	25 +15 (pen)
Actually a pretty good read by Van Bergen on this; he forces the WR significantly upfield. Trent, though, is in man, and is just gone, so the only secondary help to that side is Brown(-1), who gets caught too far inside, losing contain, and opens this up for a big gain. Van Bergen picks up a pretty weak personal foul after the play for falling on the downed runner. GSimmons: "fs should be over this, but remember we were getting on him for not shoulder the outside gap on the power g bounce, so, this is a great play call off of the power g fake, corner has to stay with his man so as not to let up the reverse pass... if 53 is more comfortable, he blows it up after the hand off, once he hesitates, its a big play"
M39	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Taylor	4
Taylor(-1) is singled this time and doesn't get any penetration; he actually ends up back a few yards, which makes Mouton's(+0.5) stand-up of the FB moot.
M35	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Warren	4
Michigan sending six guys, getting Mouton in unblocked, but Warren(-1) is bailing out and gets his feet tangled as he attempts to break on the ball; easy completion. (Pressure +1, cover -1)
M31	3	2	I-Form Big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Dive	Taylor	-2
Taylor(+2) shoots past his blocker immediately, slanting into the backfield and blasting one of the pulling guards as he comes around. Jamison(+1) has dodged a block and grasps at Ringer's feet, slowing him considerably; he manages to pop outside to no avail; Michigan swarms.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(50), 7-7, 8 min 2nd Q. Michigan sends Warren back to return the kickoff, picking up a block in the back penalty and giving up 20 yards of field position.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O47	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Ezeh	0
Ezeh(+1) is sent on a blitz, slashing between a couple of OL and forcing a Ringer cutback two yards in the backfield. Michigan players there have angles to disengage and tackle.
O47	2	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Throwaway	Jamison	Inc
Jamison(+1) beats his blocker upfield as Hoyer, on a waggle bootleg, rolls into him. Hoyer's forced to change direction and he chucks the ball to a vaguely open TE who's not looking for the ball or running the route he needs to be to catch this pass. Throwaway, I guess. (Pressure +1)
O47	3	10	Shotgun 2-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Cissoko	Inc
One of the rare times we've seen a CB actually make a play this year, and it's the kid, who's behind the WR but close enough to rake the ball out as it arrives; Harrison(+1) delivers a thumping blow, too, to add to the general coverage-ness of the situation. (Cover +1, Cissoko +1.)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 5 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M41	1	10	Ace empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Transcontinental	--	24
It's tough to criticize Warren here since he's the only guy with even a prayer of stopping this before a long gainer, but... he does slice through two blockers, then whiff on the lumbering Hoyer. Still, he did slow the procession, which was more than anyone else can say, and no minuses.
M17	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Ezeh	2
Another Wad O Bodies Play; credit on this one to Ezeh(+0.5) and Thompson(+0.5) for standing up b lockers in the hole, causing a mess and a minimal gain.
M15	2	8	I-Form Big	Base 5-3	Pass	PA FB Flat	--	Inc
Hoyer wings it wide of the FB; looked like Ezeh had this under control.
M15	3	8	I-Form	Base 4-3	Pass	Fade	Trent	Inc
This one was going to be hard to catch in any case; Trent gets a bit of a push on the WR, which may have been interference-ish, but no call. Trent was looking for the ball, and they'll let a lot of stuff go when that's the case. Eh, on replay just good coverage. (Trent +1, cover +1)
Drive Notes: Blocked FG(32), 7-7, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O36	1	10	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Dive	Stewart	64
Oh, three-man line. How you must be destroyed. Actually, I don't mind it here with 1:14 on the clock and one TO for MSU. Running is kind of dumb. This is going to be a five or six yard gain, which is acceptable given the time and down and distance and all that, until Cissoko(-3) gets over-anxious and attempts to close down the hole between himself and Ringer; Ringer spins outside and is off to the races. This is losing leverage. (And a great play from Ringer.) Stewart gets a –1, too, I guess. GSimmons: "power g ot bounces outside shouldn't have been a big play, but by bobo coming inside his block and trying to make the play, he cuts off the flowing safety, since he misses the tackle the play bounces and there is no one there."
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-7, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Trent	-3
Trent(+2) reads this all the way, tackling just as the ball arrives. (Cover +1)
O25	2	13	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Counter	Warren	1
Taylor doubled, pushed back a bit; Mouton(+0.5) effectively handled by the pulling guard, but bounces off and does harass Ringer somewhat. Warren(+1) beats his guy to the outside and contains excellently.
O26	3	12	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Graham	-8
Okay: this is a two-man rush with both Johnson and Jamison dropping off into short zones (on third and twelve... why?); no matter, since Graham(+3) smokes the right tackle and sacks Hoyer. (Pressure +2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-14, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O39	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Harrison	3
Taylor does just all right against a double, but still provides a crack for Ringer; Mouton gets the FB in the backfield and Harrison(+1) fills well, tackling near the LOS.
O42	2	7	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen	--	Inc
They catch Michigan blitzing a couple linebackers—bad—but Hoyer overthrows it. Also, Ezeh is getting held blatantly and if we can get one on a screen they should get one.
O42	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Fly	Cissoko(?)	35
Four-man rush stoned (pressure -1), providing Hoyer plenty of time to survey and throw; despite the fact that he's staring White WR down, no one gets depth on his route and he just runs into a gap behind Cissoko(-2, cover -2). Then he runs some.
O7	1	G	I-Form Big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Off tackle	Jamison	1
Jamison(+1) shoots inside, taking his man out of the play and cutting out one of the pulling guards, forcing Ringer to bounce it out. There he's cut down by a filling Brown.
O6	2	G	I-Form Big	5-3 Jumbo	Pass	PA TE Flag	Harrison	Inc
Graham(+0.5) doesn't buy the fake and gets in on Hoyer sans blockers, forcing a throw; the TE is blanketed by Harrison(+1, cover +1), and he chucks it OOB. (Pressure +1)
O6	3	G	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Fade	Warren	Inc
A little handfighting and Warren(+0.5) slows up Dell; Hoyer throws it inaccurately.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(24), 21-14, 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O37	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Fly	Trent	Inc
Play action, Hoyer chucks it deep to a covered Dell; it comes up well short. Trent(+1, cover +1) in good position.
O37	2	10	Ace twins	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Harrison	4
Aggressive, very aggressive, here, with both safeties creeping up to the line and man press on the wideouts. Mouton(+0.5), blitzing, gets into the middle, forcing a cutback that Harrison is there to shut down; suboptimal tackling allows this to be a decent gain.
O41	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Cross	Thompson	12
Zone blitz from Michigan and one that makes little sense as Jamison(-1) drops into a space that Thompson is attempting to cover. I think he got his drop wrong, opening up this little cross for a first down. (Cover -1) Brown(-0.5) overruns the tackle, ceding some bonus yards.
M47	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Jamison	-6
Hoyer on a deep drop; before he can decide whether or not to fire Jamison(+1) is in on him, having beaten the LT to the inside. He can't make the tackle; Martin(+0.5) and Graham(+0.5) clean up. (Pressure +2)
O47	2	16	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Counter	Johnson	4
Johnson(+1) momentarily doubled but stands up to it; when the second guy peels he's still in the hole and can grab at Ringer, providing time for Mouton and others to converge after a meh gain.
M49	3	12	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Improv	Brown	44
A base set on third and twelve? And okay, this really bothers me. We rush three guys from our four man line, dropping Johnson off into a short zone... on third and twelve. This is relevant because Graham(+0.5) made Hoyer flush up into the pocket, but he had all day to roll around and throw because Johnson was sitting five yards downfield. I just don't understand. Hoyer motions a guy deep and chucks it; Brown is in position... and fails to get his head around, falling as the ball arrives and allowing a ridiculous third and long conversion. (Brown -2, cover -1, pressure -1) GSimmons: "great idea of dropping one late into the underneath middle, the problem is he should have been spying the qb the dt that is, and not dropped so far, then he could have attacked him when he had to jump up the middle out of the rush.. great rush by the outside forces him into the middle. everyone is in position here. but brown is turned around by the throw, and gets tangled up in his own feet, he should have easily had the pick, if the ball wasn't under thrown badly, he would have... bad luck here... but have to locate the ball..."
M5	1	G	I-Form Big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Pitch sweep	Jamison	1
Jamison(+1) gets a good push on the TE, forcing a pulling OL to try to shoot inside of him and leaving just one guy to block Brown and Thompson. Thompson forces it outside, where Brown tackles.
M4	2	G	Power I	5-3 Jumbo	Pass	TE Cross	Brown	4
Brown(-1) sucked way too far up by the play action fake, opening up the TE behind him. (Cover -1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-21, 2 min 3rd Q. I don't want to be too harsh on a player, but it's really hard not to be when he's basically handed the opponent two touchdowns.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O48	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Ezeh	1
Two guys block Jamison and two take Taylor, but no one bothers to block Ezeh(+1), who recognizes the play and attacks the LOS, tackling near it. Taylor(+0.5) also helped out.
O49	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	Graham	Inc (Pen -10)
Graham(+1) beats the LT, forcing a rollout from Hoyer and an eventual throwaway; the reason he didn't get sacked is Graham was tackled, drawing a flag. (Pressure +1)
O39	2	19	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen	Van Bergen	Inc
Van Bergen(+1) reads this excellently and Hoyer throws it right at him; he can't bring it in for a killer interception. Arrrrrgh. (Cover +1)
O39	3	19	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Graham	-8
Graham(+3) spins free of his man in a second, getting inside position and sacking before Hoyer has any chance. (Pressure +2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-21, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O18	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Pitch sweep	Thompson	12
This is paired with a bubble screen fake. Michigan is blitzing away from the play with two guys and dropping a DL into a zone on the other side of the field, so there's a big potential for this play from the snap. Ezeh has to fly out on the bubble fake and does; there are blockers for every guy on the playside. However, this should be held down as Warren(+0.5) makes the fullback whiff on him, allowing him to come up to cut off the outside; Thompson(-1) overruns it, gets blocked, and because of Michigan's playcall there's no one behind him when Ringer cuts back.
O30	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Pass	Waggle TE out	Harrison	-1
Harrison(+1) is all over this, tackling low after a yard gain; he punches the ball out with his helmet. The fumble goes OOB. (Cover +1)
O29	2	11	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Graham	6
Graham(-1) needs to shoot inside on this to take out the pulling guard and the fullback, which would delay Ringer and force him to bounce it into unblocked players; instead he stays outside and the resulting carry goes for six yards.
O34	3	5	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Stewart	18
Major blitz leaves the secondary in man coverage; Stewart(-1) in man coverage and gets torched; he does manage to tackle, unlike the other guy at safety. Who's not in, FWIW. (Cover -1)
M48	1	10	I-Form Big	Base 4-3	Pass	Fly	Harrison	Inc (Joke +15)
Jamison(+0.5) gets in on Hoyer, avoiding some crappy blocking by State, and Hoyer has to chuck it deep to a covered player. Harrison(+1, cover +1) is in great coverage here, running with White, and gets an inexplicable flag. I mean, you find a flag in this.
M33	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Thompson	14
Thompson(-1) fails to read where this is going and gets blocked sitting perfectly still; this allows Ringer outside, where Warren(-0.5) attempts to contain but cannot.
M19	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Taylor	1
Taylor(+0.5) gets doubled but manages to fall into the intended hole, forcing a cutback that Ezeh(+0.5) cleans up well.
M18	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Stewart	15
Michigan in man coverage; Stewart(-1) beaten on a simple out, easy pitch and catch. (Cover -1)
M3	1	G	Power I	Goal line	Run	Off tackle	Harrison	3
I don't know WTF Harrison(-1) is doing but he runs way upfield and out of the play, opening up the corner for Ringer.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-21, 7 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Ace big	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Ezeh	10
MSU has been running this all day and Ezeh(-1) still isn't scraping to the right hole; the safeties are late filling despite playing a team with a touchdown lead with 6 minutes left.
M30	1	10	I-Form Big	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Jamison	1
Jamison(+1) shoots inside, taking out a pulling guard and forcing Ringer to hop over him; Thompson and others finish the play.
M29	2	9	Ace big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Off tackle	Mouton	8
They cut Taylor and double Johnson; Thompson(+0.5) does a good job of standing up two blockers in the hole, forcing a cutback but Mouton(-1) has taken an angle too far upfield and allows Ringer past him on the cutback; Ezeh(-0.5) overcommits to the hole Thompson is currently sealing, allowing the lane behind the Johnson double.
M21	3	1	Ace big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Off tackle	Thompson	0
Excellent blitz from Thompson(+1) gets him into the backfield in a snap, forcing both the h-back and the pulling guard to block him and causing a Ringer cutback for no yards.
M21	4	1	Ace big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Off tackle	Ezeh	1
FWIW, this is a crazy decision when you've got an excellent kicker and a 38-yard attempt to basically put the game away. MSU's been running the same play this entire drive; this time they flip the side of the line they go after; Michigan jumps it and Ezeh(+1) is there to make a tackle right at the line, but the pulling guard just gets to him and gives him a shove, which allows Ringer to fall forward and pick up the first.
M20	1	10	I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Pitch sweep	Ezeh	11
The same play that went for 12 earlier; on this one Johnson(-1) gets sealed away from the play an Ezeh(-1) bites hard on the playfake, opening things up.
M9	1	G	Ace big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Off tackle	Thompson	2
Thompson(+1) running downhill into these plays now, meeting fullbacks right at the LOS and creating a mess. Slowed by that, Ringer is swarmed.
M7	2	G	Ace big	5-3 Jumbo	Run	Off tackle	Jamison	0
Jamison(+1) shoots down the line and with Martin(+1), who avoided a cut meets Ringer at the LOS.
M7	3	G	Power I	5-3 Jumbo	Pass	PA FB Flat	???	7
I don't even know who the hell is supposed to be covering this guy, as Mouton(-1) and Ezeh(-1) both get sucked up to the LOS ridiculously. I mean, it's third and seven. Not that it matters a ton but jeez. (Cover -1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-35, 3 min 4th Q

Argh, again. What happened?

Well, first I have to take some complaints issued Monday back. Michigan did spend most of this game in tight man-to-man coverage and occasionally used a third cornerback. Also, inserting Boubacar Cissoko is a risky move at this point in his career. While the kid shows plenty of promise, he was largely responsible for two of Michigan States's four big plays (You Know Who was the culprit on the other two).

Actually, when I reviewed the tape I thought most of the defense played pretty well with the glaring exception of the safeties and the not glaring but still disappointing Obi Ezeh.

But we should probably go to the…

Chart?

Chart.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Jamison	9	2	7	Welcome back to the living, Mr. Jamison.
Johnson	2.5	0.5	2
Taylor	4.5	1.5	3	Both DTs were doubled all day, which made it hard for them to rack up big numbers..
Graham	12	1	11	He backed up his prediction as much as he could.
Patterson	-	-	-
Banks	-	-	-
Van Bergen	1	-	1
Martin	1.5	-	1.5
TOTAL	30.5	5	26.5	?!?!?!?!?!
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ezeh	5	5.5	-0.5	Eh… okay.
Thompson	6	3	3	Good day from him.
Panter	-	-	-
Evans	-	-	-
Mouton	5.5	3	2.5	Stood up MSU's fullback time and again, clearly surprising MSU.
TOTAL	16.5	11.5	5	Not great or anything, but I was pleasantly surprised by both OLBs in this game.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Trent	4	-	4	See "coverage".
Harrison	5	2	3	One of the primary culprits on the long touchdown.
Warren	3	1.5	1.5	More later.
Cissoko	2	6	-4	Directly responsible for 100 yards of State offense, sad to say.
Dutch	-	-	-
Stewart	1	3	-2	Can't cover White receiver named White (we're from White!) man to man.
Brown	-	7.5	-7.5	I'm going as him for Halloween because he's the scariest thing I can think of.
Williams	-	-	-
TOTAL	15	20	-5	More later.
Metrics
"Pressure"	14	5	9	A pretty ass-kicking day, actually.
"Coverage"	13	14	-1	…except when it wasn't.

!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

I know I managed to come up with a +26.5 for a defensive line that gave up 194 yards to Javon Ringer, but:

• About 60 of those came after Cissoko gave up leverage on the ball.
• It took him 37 carries to get there.

If you hack out the yards ceded to Ringer on that play—which had nothing to do with the line—he averaged 3.5 YPC. That's pretty much a push and would be worth +5 or +8 or something by itself.

Then add in five sacks, most of which were impressive instances where Graham smoked a guy and sacked Hoyer immediately—no coverage sacks, these—and you can see where the big number comes from. Hoyer rarely had time to throw, and when he did Michigan was often rushing three or even two.

It's not just that, you only gave a –5 to the secondary.

Yeah, I'm always torn between handing out something like a –8 on that slant and something less. –8 accurately represents the negative impact of the play but seems unfairly high for a single missed tackle, so I usually go with smaller numbers.

This is kind of dancing around the point: five plays by Brown and Cissoko killed the Michigan defense. The offenders:

• Simple slant pass Mouton screws up on, ceding a first down, and then Brown turns into a 64-yard touchdown.
• End-around Brown loses contain on goes for 25 plus a personal foul on RVB.
• Cissoko loses leverage on the Ringer touchdown, again turning six yards into 60.
• Cissoko loses White Receiver deep, allowing a 35-yard completion
• Brown gets lost on a rollout and flails as MSU completes a deep bomb.

Collectively, those plays added up to around –15 or something… and represent half of MSU's yards. Outside of those extremely localizable issues, Michigan's defense played somewhere between pretty well and really well.

Here's GSimmons' pithy summation of events:

we played man, we blitzed, we stunted, we played odd and even front, and we played our zone coverage, at the end of the day, we got beat by one bad play by one player... thats what happens..

Word.

Stone the witches!

Well, Cissoko is a true freshman and they make mistakes like that from time to time; I've been encouraged by his play so far and think he'll be pretty good starting next year.

Brown, on the other hand, seems hopeless. He was quiet for a few games, then returned with a vengeance in this one. Some guys just can't figure out how to play, and at this point it would be shocking if the light ever went on.

The only thing is: Michigan has no one to replace him, really, except yet more freshmen or Charles Stewart, who hasn't been much better. We're stuck with him.

Do you still have Scott Shafer bitches?

Yeah, man, although, as mentioned, the ones leveled earlier were wrong. New bitch: I really, really don't get his tendency to drop defensive tackles into short zones on third and long. Two major MSU plays came because Michigan rushed two(!!!) and gave Hoyer plenty of space and time. I mean, what is the point of having Will Johnson five yards from the LOS on third and twelve? The only thing I can think of is screens, but you're still dropping seven or eight guys into coverage; this is not a DT dropping off as part of a zone blitz.

Here's GSimmons on the Ezeh overrun against one of those two-man rushes:

okie 2 man rush, ng peels off looking for screens draws, and qb flow.. coverage players are not showing blitz, obviously we feel we can force the throw with are front, and we do, freak play, busted play, ilb looks lost trying to recover they get a first down... a millisecond away from getting a big sack, and getting off the field, great call , unexpected, just didnt work this time

I'll give him that one: the playcall forced a dumpoff against eight guys in a zone and should have been an easy stop, but I guess I'd rather not risk our linebackers—crappy in space all year—in long-term zone drops.

Heroes?

Brandon Graham was a beastmonster all day; I thought Mouton and Thompson both turned in the best games they've played to date.

Goats?

See "stone the witches" above.

What does it mean for etc etc… 2009!

First and foremost, pray like the dickens Brandon Graham is around next year. He's the best player on the team now, and will be the best player next year.

I'm encouraged by Mouton's play. He still sucks in coverage—see that slant he was helpless on—but his blitzing continues to get better and he defied Michigan State's repeated attempts to blow him up with iso plays. I think he's working towards being a solid guy for the next couple years.

Ezeh… well, middle linebacker is hard, maybe? He's got work to do.

As far as the secondary: I see very little hope at safety for next year. Stewart and Harrison are gone; Brown returns, and the only safety who's rotated in at all this year is Michael Williams. Maybe he'll be okay; maybe Brandon Smith or JT Floyd will emerge… I'm skeptical.

Note: "player" has never been deployed for the defense; I tried it this week and the results are kinda weird. It's the player most responsible for the result of the play, if that makes any sense.

Also Note: if you want the swanky video popups, you’ll have to click through to the post page itself. Click the title of the post. Update: hey, it works. Nevermind.

I’m going to try to come up with a better solution for this next week.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Flare	Panter	8
Utah starts off with a perfect example of why I hate the 4-3 against the spread, running a zone read play action that freezes Panter. The slot runs a little bubble screen route as the outside WR runs off the coverage and Panter's on an island with the slot. He misses a tackle(-1), turning five yards into eight. (Cover –1)
O33	2	1	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read handoff	Evans	3
M walks Ezeh and Evans right up to the center and blitzes them; poorly timed. Evans(-1) gets stood up and single blocked. Taylor gets a hand to slow down and the D converges but after the first down.
O36	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Stop	Trent	14
Trent is giving an eight yard cushion and by the time this guy runs a four-yards stop route he's probably 15 yards downfield. This was a zone blitz with Ezeh and Evans coming, Evans from the slot, and Graham dropping off on the backside of the play. (Cover -2)
50	1	10	Shotgun Trips Bunch	Base 4-3	Pass	Stop	Jamison	4 (Pen -10)
Tim Jamison(+2) beats the defensive end to the outside and is put in a headlock, drawing a holding flag. This allows a short checkdown for a few yards that comes back. (Pressure +1)
O40	1	20	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Flag	Harrison	Inc
Decent coverage from Harrison but not great; Johnson has a small window to lay this ball in and can't do it. Not much pressure (-1), as Michigan went with a straight four-man rush.
O40	2	20	Shotgun Trips	Okie	Run	Zone read keeper	Chambers	1
Our first taste of Okie action, with a 3-4 alignment and four guys in an umbrella behind it. Ezeh and Chambers blitz from the short side of the field; they're into the backfield immediately as the OL slants away from them on the zone read. Ezeh(+1) closes and tackles the RB immediately, leaving the QB to Chambers(+1), who closes and tackles for a minimal gain.
O41	3	19	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Post	Brown	55
Warren is clearly expecting safety help over the middle and funnels the receiver there on his post route; Brown(-3) is late arriving and overruns the guy, opening up a ton of running room. Worth noting that Jamison is really beating up on this LT. (Cover -2)
M3	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide tight	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Johnson	-5
Excellent coverage(+2) gives Will Johnson(+1) enough time to shuck a defender, then pursue Johnson up into a pocket designed to contain him. (Pressure +1)
M8	2	G	Shotgun 3-wide	Okie	Run	QB Sweep	Chambers	8
Our rock, their paper, as they bring in the running quarterback—or something—to run a sort of zone read sweep. Play action to the running back except the backside guys here aren't unblocked. Utah allows them to run upfield as they sort of orbit around them and by the time it's clear the QB has the ball they're sealed. Chambers(-1) is engaged by a tackle and roughly escorted to the endzone; Trent(-1) reacts slowly and can't do anything to deal with the QB. Cool play.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-6, 7:45 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O23	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Johnson	2
Supposed to chunk Michigan right up the middle as both DTs absorb double teams. Taylor(+1) sloughs an OL off, he stumbles and can't block Ezeh; Johnson(+1) spins to the playside of his double. The result is a fouled hole with an unblocked Ezeh, an off-balance cutback, and a small gain.
O25	2	8	Shotgun Empty	Nickel	Pass	Circle	Panter	5
Stewart comes in as a safety in the nickel package and Harrison slides down to his familiar spot over the slot. No pressure(-1) allows Johnson to find a short receiver on a circle route that beat Panter(-1). Warren comes up an tackles well.
O30	3	3	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	In	Evans	3
They throw a slant just as Evans is getting his bump on the slot receiver. Evans(-1) doesn't let go and gets a deserved PI flag.
O33	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Jet sweep	Ezeh	0
Hey, wow, Ezeh(+1) looks like David Harris on this play, instantly reading the handoff to the motioning slot man and shooting off in pursuit; he tackles for no gain. Graham(+1) and Panter(+1) helped string it out.
O33	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	TE Post	Ezeh	19
Slick pitch and catch from Johnson and the TE there as Johnson lays it right between Ezeh and Stewart, in at safety. He was only open for a moment; credit to Utah on this one. (Cover -1)
M48	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read handoff	Taylor	4
Looks like we're misaligned here as we're in the 5-3-1-7 split we broke out against the zone read last year, but we're flipped the wrong way. (This is the 5-3-1-7 split last year; this year we’re shifted over the running back.) As a result Taylor has to fight a double team that has position on him and Ezeh must deal with a lineman moving to the second level pretty easily. Four yards is a good result given the screwup, IMO, and that was because Taylor(+1) did an admirable job of fighting through an adverse situation.
M44	2	6	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Throwaway	Jamison	Inc
Jamison(+1) bursts into the LT, then swims inside, coming clean on Johnson. Johnson rolls away from the pressure, avoiding the sack, and throws it away as Panter comes charging up for cleanup. (Pressure +2)
M44	3	6	Shotgun Trips	Okie	Pass	Zag(?)	Panter	6
Bleur. Michigan shows the mondo blitz as per usual, then backs out early, notifying Johnson he's not going to be under pressure. Panter(-1) again gets beaten by a double move from a slow white guy, giving up an out and in for first down yardage. (Cover -1)
M38	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Flag	Harrison	23
This is the opposite of the 14 yard completion on the first drive, with Warren up tight on the guy running the stop and Evans in a short zone on the inside guy until the receiver breaks into the deep zone and heads to the corner. Harrison reads the coverage and throws a perfect pass Harrison has no chance on. (Pressure -1)
M15	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Cross	Ezeh	9
Second team DL in the game now—may have been in the last few plays but I haven't noticed—and they get nowhere on a five-man rush(pressure -1). Panter(-1) and Ezeh(-1) victimized underneath (cover -1) as an easy four-yard completion is open enough to turn into nine.
M6	2	1	Unbalanced I-Form	Base 4-3	Penalty	False Start	--	-5
oops.
M11	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	Harrison	11 (Pen -10)
Attempted pick here as the two outside receivers cross with the outside guy running a wheel that Harrison(+1, cover +1) jumps on. With Warren(+1, cover +1) blanketing his guy and Evans lighting out that way, the left side of the field is a no-go zone. At this point Graham(+1) is held after fighting inside his guy; Johnson rolls out and finds a receiver crossing the endzone for a touchdown that won't count. Illegal formation, too.
M21	2	16	Shotgun Empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Stop	Ezeh	18
This must be a bust by Ezeh(-2), as his zone drop heads to the other side of the field from a slot receiver who has no one anywhere near him. (Cover -2)
M3	1	G	Unbalanced I-Form	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Taylor	1
Jet sweep fake couple with a charge up the middle; Taylor(+1) stands up to a double team. When the linebackers come up to fill the holes and the running back cuts into him, he's there for the tackle. He doesn't get any help until it's too late, though, and the RB falls forward.
M2	2	G	Goal line	Goal line	Pass	Sack	Evans	-7
Play action coupled with two options for Johnson to the near side of the field; Evans(+1, cover +2) sits on the back on long enough for Warren to come over, then attacks the short one just as he begins looking for the ball. Penetration from Graham(+1) and Jamison(+1) combines to yield a Jamison sack.
M9	3	G	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Stack	Pass	Sack	Van Bergen	-2
Three man line with Graham the NT and Van Bergen and Jamison the ends. Utah rolls the pocket, cutting off one side of the field and cramming a lot of defenders into a small space; Johnson can't find anyone. (Cover +1) Van Bergen(+1) shoves his defender off balance once the pocket completes its roll and has a lane to the quarterback; a wild goose chase ensues and ends with Ezeh shoving Johnson OOB for a sack. Van Bergen is still running. His vaunted motor on display.
Drive Notes: FG(28), 10-9, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O26	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Comeback	Warren	9
Pocket is collapsing around Johnson and he just has enough time to get it into a well-covered receiver; five yards turns into nine with poor tackling from Warren(-1)
O35	2	1	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Jailbreak screen	--	Inc
Thrown too far in front of the receiver, and that's fortunate because this was set up for a big gainer.
O35	3	1	Pistol Trips	Base 4-3	Penalty	False Start	--	-5
Looks like this was going to be a speed option or a pitch or something.
O30	3	6	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare	Evans	39
Where is Marell Evans' first step going here? He takes one fatal step upfield before backing out and getting to his man, the tailback leaking out of the backfield. He then compounds his error by taking an upfield angle instead of heading straight to the sideline. Result: completion, long run, first down, swearin'. (Cover -1, Evans -3)
M31	1	10	Shotgun Trips Bunch	Base 4-3	Pass	Fly	Brown	Inc
Poor decision from Johnson, throwing a ball to a bracketed wide receiver (Cover +1). Brown(+1) has a better shot at this than the wideout, but can't reel it in. The pocket keeps collapsing around Johnson and forcing him to throw the ball, but it hasn't gotten irresponsible to the point where he breaks contain.
M31	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	Triple option dive	Panter	5
Mike Martin gets doubled and eventually shoved out of the hole a little bit; it's just a crease but it's enough. Ezeh doesn't quite make this play but he impressively reads it, attacks a guard, gets to the correct side of him, and almost makes a spectacular diving tackle for no gain. By this point I'm pretty sure Panter is tasked with spying the QB on most plays, so his initial steps away from the dive aren't surprising; wonder if a more experienced player fills more quickly here.
M26	3	5	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Curl	Harrison	Inc
Think this is a straight drop by the wide receiver, but Harrison made it difficult by impacting him as the play arrived. Pressure decent, coverage decent, not great, no plus/minus.
Drive Notes: FG(43), 10-12, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O18	1	10	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Curl	Ezeh	10
Plenty of time (pressure -1) and Ezeh(-1) is beaten in the zone.
O28	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Martin	11
Okay, when I theorized Michigan was misaligned earlier I was wrong. This is the third time this has happened where they line up inviting the zone read handoff by lining up shifted away from it, then ask the DT to that site to stand up a double. Mike Martin(-2) doesn't do this, getting bashed to the ground by the second guy's impact and opening up a gaping hole. Ezeh(-1) gets plowed by the same guy who crushed Martin, hell of a play from the Utah LG.
O39	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Ezeh	9
On each of the next three plays, Utah's lumbering power back lines up as the QB, fakes an end-around, and runs upfield. This is terrible, terrible from Ezeh(-2), who gets wholly sucked in by the end around fake and vacates the center of the field, allowing the RB-as-QB to shoot up into the hole. Martin(-1) turns in another play where he's blown out; Panter gets run over.
O48	2	1	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Evans	18
Low snap removes any threat of the end around and Michigan should have this contained; Ezeh reads it right this time and shoots into the hole; I think he's tripped to the ground by an OL and should draw a flag; he does not. Evans(-2) sits back, gets too close to an unblocked Graham, gets blasted by the FB, and opens up another gaping hole up the middle. Brown(-1) messes up a tackle and yields another ten yards.
M34	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Johnson	2
Johnson(+1) returns to the field and becomes the white knight, standing up to a double, shucking a guy, and making contact at the LOS. Panter(+1) takes on the fullback effectively, discarding him to finish the job.
M32	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Trent	Inc
This is open, thrown on a three step drop but just behind the receiver. ( cover -1)
M32	3	8	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Scramble	--	6
Three man rush; Taylor and Jamison get enough of a push, I guess, to convince Johnson it's time to tuck and run. He didn't have to; mental error. Ezeh and Chambers manage to tackle before the sticks. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: FG(41), 10-15, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O11	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Flat	Graham	Inc
Slant coupled with a flat on one side functions as a pick and gets Harrison out of position (cover -1). However, Graham(+1) has beaten the RT and I believe he brushes or grabs or hits Johnson's arm as he throws. End result: turfed ball. (Pressure +1).
O11	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Taylor	-3
Maybe this is the intent on these seemingly flipped plays: Taylor(+2) goes around the center away from the double team, blasting him back and penetrating into the path of the run. Graham(+1) has slanted inside, too, disconnecting and finishing the play.
O8	3	13	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Post	Warren	Inc
Five guys come with Panter sitting in a pretty useless spy/robber zone on third and thirteen; no one gets to Johnson(pressure -2). Fortunately, Warren(+2) has this post blanketed, breaking in front of the receiver and getting the PBU, nearly intercepting. (Cover +2) Brown also in good position; his bump of Warren may have caused the drop.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-15, 1:48 2nd Q. Finally a punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M37	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide tight	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Jamison	5
Jamison(+1, pressure +1) fights his way around the corner again, causing Johnson to flush up into the pocket. Unfortunately, there's a crease and Panter isn't playing spy so Johnson can roll up a decent number of yards.
M32	2	5	Shotgun Trips	Okie	Pass	Improv	Stewart	Inc (Pen -5
Five guys come; Johnson comes off his first read because it's covered(+1). After rolling out he finds a guy shooting to the sideline; Charles Stewart(+1, cover +1) is in great position and breaks it up. Illegal formation gives Utah another down; I think you turn this down, actually.
M37	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Jailbreak Screen	Graham	8
Five rushers again and Utah has a good playcall for it, so good they can spend two blockers taking out Ezeh. Graham(+1) pursues from behind quicker than you'd think he could and manages to hold this down.
M29	3	2	Shotgun 2TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	--	10
Six blitzers this time; Utah rolls the pocket a bit and finds a wide open (cover -2) receiver for the first down.
M19	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Post	Stewart(?)	19
Aw, come on. This guy is wide open between four Michigan defenders. I don't know who to blame but wow Charles Stewart(-1) is way away from this guy on a post. (Cover -2) Force even a tiny delay and Johnson's getting sacked here, too.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-22, EOH. And now for something completely different.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O37	1	10	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	In	Ezeh	11
Maybe not completely different: this Utah guy gets Ezeh(-1) to step the wrong way and comes open (cover -1) underneath for a nice gain.
O48	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option pitch		4
Evans is blitzing and forces a quick pitch; there's no outside contain. Brown(+1) comes up, though, and gets to the outside of the blocker. When the runner decides to take it outside he disengages and tackles, holding this down.
M48	2	6	Shotgun Empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak Screen	Van Bergen	-11
RVB(+1) reads the tackles intent to cut him and avoids it, leaping in the path of the screen and forcing Johnson to hold the ball. As the unblocked defenders converge Johnson flings it into a defender, drawing a grounding penalty. (cover +1)
O41	3	17	Shotgun Empty	3-2-6 Dime	Pass	Out	Stewart	10
Five rushers, one of whom is Chambers as an OLB. Johnson doesn't get immediate pressure but doesn't have all day either; he dumps it down to a guy on an out for what should be two yards. Stewart(-1) misses the tackle and turns it into ten. Cover +1 for not letting Johnson go downfield.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-22, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M9	1	G	Shotgun 4-wide tight	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Johnson	-9
Johnson(+2) and Taylor stunt, which the center has a hard time reading. Johnson explodes into him, knocking him off balance, and roars upfield into the pocket. Johnson rolls out but... uh... Johnson tracks him down. Barwis! (Pressure +2) Illegal substitution follows.
M23	2	G	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Curl	Trent	10
Trent playing in the parking lot on second and forever; Utah half-rolls his way and hits a guy underneath the coverage. I guess this makes sense in this down and distance. (Cover -1)
M13	3	G	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Post	Brown	Int
Hey, credit where due: Brown's had a couple howlers so far but on this play he breaks on the route and breaks up the pass, knocking the ball into the air where Ezeh can pick it off. (+2 Brown, cover +2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 10-22, 11 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Sack	Jamison	-5
Note that Chambers is the WLB in this package. Much better zone drop from Ezeh—HD is cool, I can see 20 yards downfield—provides coverage on the post (+1, cover +1) and time for Jamison(+1, pressure +1) to come around the corner and do a sack/strip job; Johnson falls on his own fumble.
M45	2	15	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Ezeh	8
Only six in the box on this play so Michigan is playing short. Jamison(+1) shucks the LT and Graham (the NT here) holds his ground pretty well; Ezeh(-1) fights to one side of a blocker, leaving a cutback lane behind him because Chambers(-1) has sat and passively accepted a block. Stewart comes up and makes a decent tackle. Take these +/- numbers somewhat lightly; I'm not sure exactly what's wrong on this play. This play is actually a great example of what I was talking about in HTTV about the backside DE, because without the threat of the QB here he would be closing this down for little gain.
M37	3	8	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Van Bergen	1
Stewart's sitting in a robber zone(cover +1), which makes Johnson's first read, a slant, inadvisable. Meanwhile, confusion on the Utah OL has gotten Van Bergen in unblocked. (Pressure +1) Johnson scrambles out and tackled after a one-yard gain.
Drive Notes: FG(54), 10-25, 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M44	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Panter	6
Mouton replaces Evans. Same thing as in the first half. This one isn't that poorly defended, as the “QB” just manages to hop through a hole that forms momentarily between Panter and Sagesse. I think Panter gets a -1 for getting cranked by the FB and falling uselessly. If he stays on his feet this hole doesn't develop.
M38	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Banks	3
Banks(+1) beats his man to the inside, forcing the pulling guard to block him and leaving Ezeh a free shot at the RB. Harris would have clubbed this guy dead; Ezeh loses the battle of momentum and allows the RB to fall forward.
M35	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	--	2
Camerawork lingers too long on a close shot so it's hard to tell what happens on this play. Panter and Ezeh combine to take the “QB” down after a first down.
M33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Taylor	5
Taylor(-1) attempts to spin his single blocker and gets caught. He ends up shoved downfield, his back to the play. Ezeh(-1) reads this wrong despite it being the same play they've run four times in a row.
M28	2	5	Ace Twins	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Jamison	3
Jamison(+1) shoots inside his blocker and dives at the feet of the RB, tripping him a couple yards in the backfield. He starts falling forward, managing to keep his feet for a decent gain.
M25	3	2	Shotgun 2-TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Ezeh	-12
Rollout to the side with two wide receivers; Trent(+1) and Warren(+1) blanket their two guys in man; no safety help. Those are the only guys in the pattern. Johnson continues the roll until Ezeh(+1) shoots up impressively and sacks—or almost sacks and forces an intentional grounding. Whatever. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-25, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O30	1	10	Shotgun Trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Thompson	5
Thompson in for Ezeh. He does a pretty decent job of engaging the blocker, then pushing him away and attacking the ball carrier, but it looks like he gets his arm hooked by the OL and falls because of it—after the play he does the “throw a flag” motion. Banks peels back to tackle.
O35	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Stewart	Inc
Pass is well overthrown; Johnson(+1) impacts... er... Johnson just as he throws. Didn't affect the throw but he was out of time right then. (pressure +1)
O35	3	5	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Jamison	-9
Well timed blitz from Mouton gets him in and he absorbs the fullback; Jamison(+1), meanwhile, has beaten his guy again and forces Johnson to flush out of the pocket, where Graham(+1) sacks. (Pressure +2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-25, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O26	1	10	Shotgun 2-TE	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Thompson	2
Blocking is basically the same as the ISQDs earlier but Johnson is the quarterback and he hands off up the gut. Good play by Thompson(+1) to avoid a downfield block and explode to the edge, catching Asiata as he cuts up.
O28	2	8	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	Panter	-6
Well timed blitz from Panter(+1) gets him in unblocked; with an empty backfield there's no one to take him. Snap is low; Johnson has no chance to avoid the pressure and goes down. (Pressure +1)
O22	3	14	Shotgun Empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak Screen	--	6
Pretty much a give-up-and-punt; ball is a little in front of the receiver and starts a stumbling chain reaction that ends with him falling to the ground untouched.
Drive Notes: Punt(blocked!), 10-25, 9 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option dive	Taylor	1
Taylor(+1) stands up to a double; no peeling LBs. Mouton attacks the intended POA, forcing the RB outside where Warren(+1) is unblocked and tackles. Utah picks up an unsportsmanlike after the play.
O19	2	24	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Brown	9
Rolling pocket and a quick throw to the sidelines; its open and a decent gain; Brown tackles immediately. Perfectly fine in this D&D.
O28	3	15	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Sack	Patterson	-3
Six guys come; Johnson's first read is covered(+1) and he decides to bug out, scrambling forward in the pocket. Adam Patterson(+1) spins off a block and strips from behind. Panter recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 17-25, 8 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare	Trent	Inc
Probably fortunate for Utah that this is dropped, as Trent read the eff out of this and was preparing to TFL if caught. (Cover +1, Trent +1)
O25	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Ezeh	1
Graham(+1), the NT, holds up and disengages just as Ezeh(+1) shoots into the hole and tackles; great anticipation by Ezeh.
O26	3	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Okie	Pass	Dumpoff	Trent	Inc
This Okie backs out early and massively, ending up with just two rushers and Graham a spy in the middle of the field. Johnson decides to dump it off to the TB; it's incomplete anyway (cover +1).
Drive Notes: Punt, 23-25, 5 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O30	1	10	Shotgun Trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Stop	Trent	7
Johnson does a good job of finding the open guy against a four-man rush; Trent lowers the boom immediately.
O37	2	3	Shotgun Empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	0
Good coverage (+1) causes Johnson to head out after a first read; Mouton(+1) comes up rapidly to cut off any possible advancement; help from Jamison.
O37	3	3	Pistol 2TE	Okie(?)	Run	Broken play	Warren	2
Miscommunication results in Johnson with the ball wondering WTF to do; he plows ahead and almost has the first down before Warren cuts him down.
Drive Notes: Punt, 23-25, 2 min 4th Q. Utah's last drive is academic and not charted.

So what changed at halftime?

My initial theory was they junked the 4-3 zone that Johnson was shredding in the first half in favor of more 3-3-5 and more man, but as you can see above, not really. Any increased prevalence of three-man lines has more to do with the preposterous down and distance situations Utah found themselves in than any schematic adjustment. When it was first and ten in the second half, Michigan was in a 3-3-5 twice and a 4-3 all other times.

My new theory: the second half performance is close to baseline unless someone on Michigan makes a huge error. First half drives in capsule form:

• Jamison draws a holding penalty and Utah finds itself in third and nineteen; Brown screws up badly, allowing a 55 yards pass and first and goal. (TD)
• Johnson makes two NFL-quality throws that pick up 40-some yards; Ezeh busts a coverage and allows a second and sixteen to become a first down. (FG)
• Evans blows a simple flare route in every way you can and turns a checkoff into a 40 yard play. (FG)
• Utah completes a pass against Ezeh in zone and pounds down the field, exploiting freshman Mike Martin and getting some poor play from Evans and Ezeh. (FG)
• Three-and-out.
• Short field touchdown helped by poor coverage. (TD)

On each of the first three drives, simple errors from Michigan players turn long yardage down and distance situations into enormous plays; on the last Sheridan’s interception reduces the margin for error.

None of this happened in the second half, and while Utah managed the occasional first down with a number of runs up the middle or pass against the linebackers, their offensive line couldn’t handle the Michigan DL consistently enough to keep Utah out of third and long.

This is kind of the opposite of what’s going on with the offense. The offense has severe physical limitations and execution issues, so it can get better but will always have a low ceiling. The defense looks like a physically dominant monster with occasional execution issues.

Execution issues don’t just go away, of course, but they do go down as the weeks progress.

Chart?

Wow, like. Wow, man. I don’t know if I want to show you this thing.

For newcomers: the defense chart attempts to quantify positive and negative contributions from defensive players. Routine things like being the guy to clean up and tackle after someone else disrupted the play don’t show up. This does a pretty decent job in the run game but is inadequate for the pass game, so there are two metrics—“pressure” and “coverage”—devoted to that. In general, DL get the highest scores, LBs are in between, and DBs try to stay around zero.

Usually, this thing aligns pretty closely with the opinions I had watching the game live and on tape. This one is weird.

Anyway, chart.

Player	+	-	T	Notes
Jamison	9	-	9	IMO, Michigan’s best player on the day. Totally dominant, picked up TFLs and sacks, caused others.
Johnson	6	-	6	Also thought he was excellent, night and day from his meh junior season. Barwisized.
Taylor	6	1	5	Stood up to Utah double teams consistently, only blown back once.
B. Graham	8	-	8	Wha?
Patterson	1	-	1	Forced a critical fumble, but that was after someone else had forced a rollout.
Banks	1	-	1
VanBergen	2	-	2	Legendary motor was on display on a couple plays; promising debut.
Martin	-	3	-3	Had a couple bad plays where he couldn’t hold up against interior runs, but he cycled in quite a bit and had a number of other plays where he was adequate.
Ezeh	5	10	-5	So… right. I gave the Big Ten DPOW a –5 after a 15 tackle performance. More later.
Thompson	1	-	1	Will probably get more time this week.
Panter	3	7	-4	Bad.
Evans	2	5	-3	Critical failure on that 40-yard flare.
Mouton	1	-	1	Will see more time next week.
Trent	2	1	1	Couple completions on him were due to zone, IMO.
Harrison	1	-	1
Warren	5	1	4	Better tackling, rarely challenged.
Stewart	1	2	-1
Brown	4	4	0	One big play for, one against.
Chambers	1	2	-1	Minus was because he was playing linebacker.
"Pressure"	14	7	7	Monster day.
"Coverage"	25	18	7	This is a really good number, actually.

Okay, my issues with my own damn chart:

• I thought Graham had a disappointing day, as he only got to the quarterback every once in a while. All the mentions above are from nice plays in run defense.
• Jamison and Johnson were great, IMO, and I have no problems with their numbers. Taylor checks out, too.
• The linebackers were obviously a problem, and the outside linebackers especially.
• Ezeh… well. Something like –6 was on pass coverage, where I think you’ll agree Michigan linebackers had serious issues. There were another couple plays in the run game where he just flipped out and went completely the wrong direction, and that’s how you get to –5.

I still don’t agree with the Ezeh thing, but when Johnson is tearing up the linebackers underneath and Utah racks up a billion yards in the first half because of it, someone has to suffer.

Barwis SMASH?

Well, he couldn’t do much with the patchwork offensive line but holy crap this DL looks like it’s from another planet this year. Tim Jamison was crushing a guy who was second-team All Mountain West last year; this is not conclusive but it's certainly encouraging. Will Johnson turned in more plays in that game than he did in half of last year. And Johnson got run down from behind more than once on plays we’ve all seen end in tragedy before.

All hail.

What’s with the linebackers and the suck?

They’re clearly scrambling for answers here, with Evans and Panter scheduled to sit for Mouton and Thompson next week. This should not be particularly surprising. Panter became Michigan’s first JUCO recruit in ten years for a reason, and it wasn’t “boy we’re so deep at linebacker.”

Thompson, of course, had that wowza Iowa game in 2005, then disappeared to the bench until the early stages of last year, when he started for a bit then lost his job to injuries and Ezeh. Maybe he’s not good against the pass, but if he turns out to be good against the run he’s got something on Panter. Mouton made a play or two last game, but he’s been AWOL behind players who are bad for the duration of his career. I’m not expecting miracles.

As for Ezeh, live I thought he was awesome; on tape I thought he was pretty good; in the harsh number-thing above he checked in about as ugly as it gets. He’s clearly still working towards the lofty standard set by David Harris. He’s obviously much closer this year and I think he might approach it as a junior. There will still be growing pains this fall.

Heroes?

Defensive line, Barwis, Warren.

Goats?

Linebackers, somewhat Steve Brown.

What does it mean for next week and the season?

I was more encouraged by the defense after review, since a lot of the plays Johnson made had little margin for error—little holes in a zone or a defensive lineman just about to put a facemask in his chest—and some others seemed first game jitters from young players. Iron out the n00bs to the point where they’re the defensive equivalent of Wisconsin quarterbacks—just don’t lose the game for us, kid—and let the defensive line go to work and this defense should just about live up to its hype.

Watch out for: veteran quarterbacks who operate out of a spread or have excellent underneath options. Tight ends could be problematic all year.

A note before we start: this preview relies heavily on the defensive UFRs of last year, even more so than the offense did, because 1) there are actual returning players and 2) there’s a convenient numerical system that does a decent job of summing up a defensive player’s contributions. One caveat: the system is generous to defensive linemen and harsh to defensive backs, especially cornerbacks. A +4 for a defensive end is just okay; for a cornerback it’s outstanding.

Defensive Line

Rating: 5.

Depth Chart

WDE	Yr.	NT	Yr.	DT	Yr.	SDE	Yr.
Tim Jamison	Sr.*	Terrance Taylor	Sr.	Will Johnson	Sr.*	Brandon Graham	Jr.
Adam Patterson	Jr.	Renaldo Sagesse	So.	Mike Martin	Fr.	Ryan Van Bergen	Fr.*
Andre Criswell	Jr*	--	--	Jason Kates	So.*	Greg Banks	So.*

With four starters returning, three of them seniors, defensive line should be the team's strong point. All are converts to the Church of Barwis. Terrance Taylor and Brandon Graham each dropped 30-some pounds; Will Johnson is lifting small cars for fun; Tim Jamison is noticeably less pudgy. They could be dominant. Let’s hope.

Defensive Tackle

Terrance Taylor
2006
Plowing Central
Penetration
Shooting the gap
More penetration
2007
Holds up to double
PSU pressure
Unassisted TFL
Cut to the ground
Making plays

Much was expected from fireplug nose tackle Terrance Taylor last year, but Taylor was just okay. He was bad against Appalachian State’s spread ‘n shred and ineffective against Oregon’s spread ‘n shred ‘n impossibly-easy long touchdown, a weakness that recurred later in the season against Illinois:

Taylor and Johnson weren't much more effective against the zone read than they were in the first week of the season. Taylor did make a couple plays, but +2 is a weak day for a DT playing against a lot of interior run plays.

There was also an ignominious –2 against Eastern Michigan.

On the other hand, when teams lined up and attempted to grind down Michigan all traditional-like, Taylor was pretty dang good.

A compilation:

Team	+	-	Tot	Comments
Penn State	5	1	4	Probably thinking "hallelujah, someone who will run straight at me."
Michigan State	8	3	5	A couple diving tackles that really helped out the befuddled linebackers.
Wisconsin	11	3	8	I thought he was great, but grant you that you might be skeptical. Nine tackles is a hell of a number for a DT, though.
Ohio State	6	4	2	Positive day, but a disappointing one nonetheless. Given his status as Michigan's most consistently disruptive DT and the steady diet of iso plays, he should have had a bigger impact.

That’s three of four performances that were at least good; there were also big days against spread teams Purdue and Northwestern.

Michigan fans are banking on Taylor improving after his midseason conversion to the Church of Barwis. The gregarious fat man is now more gregarious and less fat after dropping 25 pounds over the summer. He claims his conditioning has improved:

"I'm going to be lean," he said, laughing, knowing what his 6-foot frame can handle. "I know doing that, being more flexible, doing the things they want and improving in the areas I can improve in, all working together, it's a blessing I stayed here and we got (strength coach) Mike Barwis."

Taylor’s ability to stay effective late in games will be extremely important with the loss of Marques Slocum and position switch of John Ferrara: the top backups are a freshman and a Canadian.  

Will Johnson
2006
ND third and one dies
Snuffing a draw
2007
Causing a sack
Third down vs Illini
Slowing the zone read
Forcing INT
Crushed by UW

If Taylor was a bit disappointing, Will Johnson was more so. After battling through a severe knee injury that forced a redshirt and lingered on, Johnson debuted as a redshirt sophomore backup to unholy terror Alan Branch in 2006. In that role, he was good. Sometimes they’d lift Branch on third and short in favor of Johnson and, remarkably, that turned out pretty well.

Unfortunately, when Johnson was pressed into full-time duty the results were meh. Stats don’t always tell the tale at defensive tackle, but 2.5 TFLs and half a sack does not indicate an impact player. UFRs indicate a strong game against Penn State, a rollercoaster performance against Wisconsin, a good day against Minnesota (BFD, maybe), a clunker against Ohio State, and unremarkable days otherwise.

Johnson also has tales of Barwis:

"I think I'm stronger and more explosive than I've been in a while," senior defensive tackle Will Johnson said. "(Barwis') staff is really good. They're really on top of everything. They know what you need to do and how to get you there.

"I love (Barwis) to death so far. He's a good guy. He really gets after you and wants you to do your best."

He owns many of the weightlifting records for the current team and is a fifth year senior; now is the time. He should be better, but probably not All Big Ten level.

Freshman Mike Martin is the top backup at defensive tackle. Out of high school he’s a smaller version of Terrance Taylor, a shortish but stocky NT sort who was a state champion wrestler and powerlifter. A true freshman at DT would normally be cause for concern but Martin is reputed to be a gym rat much better prepared for the rigors of a college weight program than most. His highlight film is pretty impressive, as he shoots through the line and drags down ballcarriers like he’s a middle linebacker.

No one knew what to expect from Renaldo Sagesse, as he is from Quebec and played mostly against 150 pound guys who got much, much sorrier they didn’t make the hockey team as soon as he wandered on the field. He saw sporadic snaps last year, but they were too few to glean any impression from. Jason Kates stuck around and stuck it out under Barwis a year after dropping from a listed 358 pounds to 318; he will probably start rotating in this year.

Defensive End

Brandon Graham

2007

Snuffing a draw

Sacking Painter

Hates Gophers

Brandon Graham was injured or suspended or something for Michigan’s first two games of 2007. You probably don’t remember this because it’s not like it’s been brought up every 15 seconds since, but Michigan gave up a lot of points in those games. When Graham returned against Notre Dame, he racked up 3.5 sacks and Michigan gave up no points. From then on the defense dragged itself from dead last to 24th nationally, finishing second in the Big Ten. This looks like an important player.

In truth, Graham wasn’t the all-crushing destroyer of worlds the events of last year may have made him out to be. He did pick up 8.5 sacks and would likely have cracked double digits without the missed time, but in marked contrast to Lamarr Woodley, Graham added just one non-sack TFL and 15 non-sack regular tackles. Tim Jamison, in contrast, had about triple those numbers. Woodley was on another level yet.

Michigan State turned its run game around by attacking a tired Graham, and he came in for some clucking:

He's got a -2 up there, by far his worst total of his career, and it was largely because he got booted out of the line by double teams frequently.

Michigan needs Graham to take the next step forward in the pass game and start wreaking similar havoc against the run.

I tentatively suggest this will happen. Barwis broke Brandon Graham into his component molecules, examined every one individually, and reassembled Graham into a 16-foot-tall fire-breathing dinosaur robot. Or something like that:

…at 287 pounds, Brandon Graham did 315 pounds on the bench press. We cut him all the way down to 250 and then brought him back up to 269. At 269 today, he did 475 for two (repetitions) on the bench.

This quote is amazing for obvious reasons—Graham can now lift Charlie Weis twice—and more subtle ones: we had a 290-pound defensive end last year? Jebus.

We have a player who was already one of the better defensive ends in the league whilst carrying around 20 pounds of Cottage Inn one year more experienced and several times better conditioned. Also there is the cockpit-mounted flamethrower. Survey says: really, really good.

After three years of nonstop hype and the occasional flash of brilliance in a backup role, Tim Jamison debuted as a starting defensive end and was… eh… a little better than okay. Late in the season he was wildly inconsistent. Against Wisconsin he was a measly +1 as the DL as a whole turned in a –8 in the important “pressure” metric, but against Ohio State he turned in a +7 and was the best player on the defense.

Other than that though, Jamison’s porridge was boringly average. Earlier it was meh-plus—+4, +4, +5, that kind of thing—as the pressure metric wandered around the acceptable range. His stats were similarly unremarkable: 5.5 sacks, 52 tackles, ten TFLs. A point in his favor: that’s a lot of tackles and a decent number behind the line; he wasn’t really the issue in the run game.

Jamison enters his final year an established starter who should take another step forward this year. How much depends on how realistic the Barwis hype is, how crazy Scott Shafer is, and how much potential is yet untapped. Jamison’s entering his fifth year in college instead of his third and is thus less likely than Graham to blow up, but he was a slightly plus player a year ago and will probably be an honorable mention All Big Ten sort, maybe second team.

Tim Jamison
2006
ND sack
Easy PSU sack
Indiana sack
2007
He owns Penn State
Thumping a FB
Sacking EMU

Behind the starters it’s thin. Ryan Van Bergen was a moderately shirtless recruit reputed to have a nonstop motor; he redshirted a year ago and appears to be the top option behind Graham on the strongside. At 6’5” he’s a bit taller than optimal height for a defensive end. Greg Banks was a meh recruit; he’s seen some time here and there but hasn’t done anything of note. Adam Patterson was a major recruit but has done less than Banks so far, as a junior he’s rapidly running out of time.

Linebackers

Rating: 2.

Depth Chart

WLB	Yr.	MLB	Yr.	SLB	Yr.
Marell Evans	So.	Obi Ezeh	So.*	Austin Panter	Sr.
Jonas Mouton	So.*	Johnny Thompson	Sr.*	JB Fitzgerald	Fr.*
Kenny Demens	Fr.	Brandon Logan	Fr.	Brandon Herron	Fr.*

Obi Ezeh returns; Chris Graham and Shawn Crable do not. Crable will be missed. Unfortunately, available options here are few.

Middle Linebacker

Obi Ezeh

2007

Hesitant early

More decisive

Still decisive

Sophomore middle linebacker Obi Ezeh was the Steve Schilling of the defense in 2007: a redshirt freshman pressed into the starting lineup before his time, he was unprepared and often bad. Now he’s the “veteran” anchor of a shaky unit, counted upon to improve massively.

Though Ezeh doesn’t have the same plague of injuries to excuse his play, he was switched from strongside linebacker to the middle midway through fall camp and was significantly less touted as a recruit. There’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll get better.

He’ll have to. Michigan Sports Center put this video up to highlight Morgan Trent’s wicked speed but when I look at it all I see is horrible linebacker play:

This is a simple zone read handoff on which Ezeh is unblocked. Not only does Ezeh not read the play and the hole fast enough to make a tackle, he commits the cardinal sin of losing “leverage” on the ball by letting Harvin outside of him. The result is a big gainer.

This happened quite frequently last year, as Colin Johnston detailed in his piece on the differences between David Harris and Obi Ezeh for Hail To The Victors 2008. Ezeh was a freshman and he played like it, especially against Wisconsin when he turned in a –7.

That’s not to say there wasn’t good stuff mixed in there. Ezeh usually managed to stay on the positive side of the UFR ledger, which was more than Chris Graham could say. Ezeh is getting a lot of positive buzz, too. Here’s hoping it’s accurate.

Johnny Thompson

2007

He slices up well

Johnny Thompson backs up Ezeh. He’s a player damned by the shifting tides of football, a guy who could have been a starter back when second and eight was a running down. Our one glimpse of Thompson’s promise came during the 2005 Iowa game, when the ineptness of Chris Graham became too much to bear and he was inserted at weakside linebacker. I wrote this last year and it still holds true:

The first half was full of indecision and error; the second half he made a significant contribution to the win... in the run game. When he was asked to defend the pass, he overran plays and got clunkily out of position.

Though he did intercept Jimmah Clausen last year—raise your hand if you didn’t—put your hand down, Todd Howard—that limitation remains. He’s an outmoded player.

Thompson should see the field as a situation run-stopper on short yardage and goalline sets. If there’s a non-spread team on the schedule that really can’t throw you might see a lot of him in that particular game… maybe Wisconsin?

Outside Linebacker

On the outside things are tetchy. Marell Evans has won the weakside job from presumed heir apparent Jonas Mouton. Neither has seen the field much so we’re reduced to recruiting rankings, extrapolation, and practice whispers.

Evans first: he was a legit nobody (to the recruiting sites, at least) out of Varina High in Virginia a couple years back. Varina also happens to be the school that produced Brandon Minor, and Michigan internet legend has it that a primary reason Evans got his offer was Minor’s recommendation. Minor told the staff “this guy works harder than I do,” and this was suitably impressive. At the time of his commitment, Evans’ other offers were from Buffalo, Temple, and Middle Tennessee. Now he’s a true sophomore slated to start at Michigan. Dude.

Mouton, on the other hand, was a mondo recruit out of California, ranked in or around the top 50 by both sites. He moved down from safety and redshirted his first year; last year an ankle injury lingered into the season, limiting his time early. Nothing limited his time late, however, and Chris Graham was still tres ineffective as the starting WLB. Like Mark Ortmann’s struggles behind an unprepared Schilling, this is a disturbing indicator for his future.

Evans doesn’t exactly have the profile of a future star what with that recruiting story—even if you don’t believe in star ratings, that offer list is less than ideal—but at least he’s beaten out a touted guy and has an encouraging career path to date. I won’t venture a guess as to how it will work out. Mouton remains the better athlete and may see some time as a madman blitzer in Scott Shafer’s madman blitzing schemes.

On the strongside, Austin Panter is the most unexpected starter on the defense, and that’s saying something given the science that was just dropped on Evans. Michigan’s first JUCO transfer since Russell Shaw, Panter arrived with a JUCO Defensive Player of the Year award and was immediately considered a total bust. He saw just enough time to rob him of a redshirt—yay—and seemed poised to languish in obscurity his final year. Exit Crable and enter Rodriguez and he’s a starter.

I have no idea what this portends. The only thing I’ve seen from Panter was a couple good plays in the 2007 spring game. Michigan never uses JUCOs so I don’t know if this is a reasonable thing to have happen. It seems like it might be since there’s a huge leap from some community college in Kansas to Michigan, but it also seems a little desperate. It’s not like this JUCO DPOY award has been a great predictor of I-A success: most of the guys who got it faded away into Bolivia without so much as a start.

This may work out; I lean towards not so good. It might not matter that much because Michigan will be in a nickel so often.

Brandon Logan exists but isn’t going to see time outside of special teams. A fleet of freshmen will probably rotate in at points. JB Fitzgerald has been the only freshman linebacker drawing direct praise from Rodriguez so far. He’s a middle linebacker by trade, though, so may get buried this year. Kenny Demens, Taylor Hill, and Brandon Herron have not drawn any mentions. Hill was the highest rated but was also a 210 pound DE. Marcus Witherspoon would probably have seen the field this year but a clearinghouse issue has him lingering around home. He certainly thinks he’s going to arrive; at this point a redshirt seems like a foregone conclusion.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 4.

Depth Chart

CB	Yr.	FS	Yr.	SS	Yr.	CB	Yr.
Morgan Trent	Sr.*	Steve Brown	Jr.	Brandon Harrison	Sr.	Donovan Warren	So.
Troy Woolfolk	So.	Charles Stewart	Sr.*	Artis Chambers	So.	Boubacar Cissoko	Fr.
JT Floyd	Fr.	Brandon Smith	Fr.	Michael Williams	Fr.*	Doug Dutch	Sr.*

The one unit that was a pleasant surprise on last year’s team, the secondary returns about three starters depending on how you classify oft-deployed nickelback and new starting safety Brandon Harrison. The starting corners return and are backed up by some promising young talent; Steve Brown… well, he’s going to play and God willing last year’s contribution to the Horror was an anomaly.

Morgan Trent

2007

Jumping a slant

Senior cornerback Morgan Trent underwent a remarkable transformation last year. He was torched time and again in the Football Armageddon ‘06 Ohio State game and was #1 on the fan whipping boy charts until Appalachian State’s first drive. He proceeded to turn in an excellent year, emerging into one of the better corners in the Big Ten. Defenses avoided him in favor of Johnny Sears and, later, Donovan Warren. That might not say much when those two guys are baked out of their gourd and freshman, respectively, but this does:

PASS DEF EFFICIENCY      G   Att  Cmp  Int  Pct.  Yds TD Effic
--------------------------------------------------------------
1. Michigan............  8   252  134    8  53.2 1382  4  98.1
2. Ohio State..........  8   276  145    6  52.5 1355  8  99.0
3. Purdue..............  8   288  166    9  57.6 1783 10 114.9
4. Iowa................  8   290  167   10  57.6 1933 10 118.1

Michigan missed Jake Christensen's unconvincing impersonation of a man with arms and was still the top pass efficiency D in the conference. Morgan Trent was the best player in that secondary.

This year, NFL scouts are saying Trent is the most draftable prospect on the team, even ahead of the defensive linemen. I could only turn up one highlight for Trent because teams avoided him so much—there was also a “look what I found” interception or two, but those weren’t exactly testaments to his ability. He’s headed for an excellent senior season and some postseason award consideration.

Donovan Warren

2007

Jumping a hitch

Too hesitant tackling

Batting it away

And the whiff

Meanwhile, Donovan Warren is on the same stardom track followed by Jackson, Hall, and Woodson (praised be his name) before him: come in a highly touted recruit, start about half the year as a freshman, and blow up your sophomore year en route to the first round of the NFL draft. Warren actually has more recruiting accolades than anyone on that list—only Jackson was even close—and was a starter by the second half of The Horror.

As you might expect, Warren started off a little shaky. Though he was one of the few Wolverines to escape the Post Apocalyptic Oregon Game without a tongue-lashing, he was one of the “goats” against Penn State. (“Goats” is probably the wrong term when you give up nine points, but whatever.) He was also responsible for a coverage bust against Illinois that led to a touchdown. But as I review the UFRs he’s always at 0 or –1 or +1, which is pretty good for a freshman in a system that has a hard time crediting secondary players for the times they don’t screw up. Most of Warren’s mentions go like this:

Warren(+1) reacts to this quickly and just manages to not screw up the tackle. I'm still pretty leery about his tackling ability, and frankly, this play, but we are a results-based charting service. (Cover +1)

Tackling was his main issue a year ago. And indecision. Tackling and indecision and etc Spanish Inquisition, except that tackling and indecision were about it. Those things should melt away with more experience; the expectation here is that Warren will be very good.

Top backups at corner are true freshman Boubacar Cissoko, a highly-rated player from Cass Tech in Detroit, and Michigan legacy Troy Woolfolk. Cissoko was well regarded by the recruiting services despite the fact he can’t get on any of the rides at Cedar Point, and this hilariously-scored highlight package gives an indication as to why:

There’s only one Black Jesus and he’s Steve Breaston.

Anyway, Cissoko’s short but he’ll get in your grill and jam your ass to the ground. My go-to comparison for him is former Arkansas corner Chris Houston, who spent his college career lined up six inches from his man and rode them all the way downfield. Sometimes this worked out great; sometimes it did not it was spectacular to watch either way.

Woolfolk, meanwhile, was a high school track star and is the son of Michigan legend Butch Woolfolk. He’s physically reminiscent of Trent, a long, lanky guy who can go fast in a straight line but doesn’t have the change of direction a dwarf like Cissoko does.

Safety

Steve Brown

2007

The Horror Begins

In a way, I blame myself. Mostly I blame other people with a direct hand in it, but in a way I am culpable. There’s the “Functional DNP” thing and then Angry Michigan Safety Hating God saw this arrogance re: Steve Brown in last year’s preview and struck us all down:

It's usually silly to expect a new starter to outperform a departed one, but in this case it would be nearly impossible for Brown not to. Ryan Mundy was the worst safety I have ever seen in a Michigan uniform.

Mundy, of course, transmogrified into a safety decent enough to actually get drafted by an actual NFL team in the actual NFL draft. Meanwhile, Brown’s first start caused in mass chaos, tragedy, and this:

our safeties remain way downfield holding their penises, or, in Stevie Brown's case, trying very hard to grab his penis but falling down and watching it score a touchdown.

I was a little cranky.

Brown (right) was yanked halfway through The Horror and blameless Brandent Englemon occupied the starting job for the remainder of the year. Brown emerged from time to time when injury demanded it or just to spot a tired starter; in this time he made no big plays but neither did he give any up.

So now he’s the man, man, at free safety, and there are few other options available. (Maybe Artis Chambers is ready. Maybe not.) Brown’s still racking up the hype that caused such a sunny prediction in last year’s preview. He has full guru approval. He’s a junior now. He still scares the living daylights out of me.

This probably isn’t fair; I’m no doubt overrating two very bad plays from an inexperienced player in his first real action. If Brown had just sat behind a highly reliable Brandent Englemon, everyone would be terribly excited about him.

But, yeah, he didn’t.

Brandon Harrison

2007

Blowing up screen

Taking down Benn

Mighty mite Brandon Harrison has claimed the strong safety job. Though he’s technically not a returning starter, Harrison saw a ton of time last year as Michigan’s nickelback. From that spot he strung out options and attempted outside runs, provided underneath coverage, and blitzed quarterbacks. His proficiency at these things: excellent, average, and why don’t you run AT him instead of PAST him?

I’m a little disappointed Harrison will be giving up that spot as a quasi-linebacker, because he really was excellent at crushing outside runs last year. Three plays expound on a season:

Harrison(+2) jets in, fending of a blocker to chop this down in the backfield. Thompson(+1) also out there to help after a quick read. … Harrison(+2) reads and shoots into the backfield, making a huge TFL just as the ball arrives. … Harrison(-1) in unblocked but overruns the QB.

Those instincts will serve him well, though, and I expect he’ll be in that familiar spot over the slot receiver with frequency as Shafer brings another guy up to blitz.

Harrison’s coverage was been decent to good last year, though he missed an occasional tackle underneath; he should be acceptable to good in his final year.

Fifth-year senior Charles Stewart is the main backup at safety. His most extensive time on the field to date was as Morgan Trent’s ineffective replacement during the 2006 Minnesota game. After getting torched in a variety of ways there, he was buried on the bench and moved to safety. He’s been getting sporadic praise from the new regime and may see some time in nickel and time packages.

Artis Chambers was getting some time on special teams when the Big Ten dinged him for some eligibility snafu and forced him out for the remainder of the year. There are reports he’s playing some outside linebacker in a weird pass-down dime package. Whether that signals disaffection with the linebackers or a desire to get Chambers on the field is yet to be determined.

Brandon Smith is a high-rated true freshman who will see some time as he’s groomed to step in Harrison next year. He’s got wicked dreads.