big ten power rankings

Nice job picking a QB, Ace. Here's your reward.

While re-watching the M-PSU punt-fest my brother made an interesting comment: "It's amazing what's happened to two of the best quarterbacks in the conference." If you ever again need to point to something to show that the offense means more than the quarterback, this Big Ten season has that in spades. What it doesn't have is an answer to the question: who IS the best QB in the conference?

I have no idea. Of guys I expected big things from, Braxton Miller (injury) and Tre Roberson (transfer) didn't make it out of the preseason, Gardner played his way behind a true sophomore who obviously couldn't play, Hackenberg's been a tackling dummy, and when I got down to Cook my Sparty slappy brother shook his head and declined the nomination.

Lower down, Sudfeld is now out for the season but he wasn't world-beating before. C.J. Brown, true to form, has been keeping pace just behind Gardner; a wrist injury against Indiana has ceded snaps to Caleb Rowe. Nebraska and Iowa aren't getting anything more than mediocre from their 2nd year guys. Trevor Siemian is not a throw deity of any sort. Etling hasn't been good enough for Boiler fans to stop mentioning that Michigan stole Bellomy(!). Wisconsin's QB situation has been awful. Illinois thought they had something when transfer Wes Lunt was picking apart bad defenses, but he broke his leg, which is apparently 4-6 weeks these days.

Everybody's played only a few real opponents, and everybody's been a product of his offense so stats are only a little useful. Last year ESPN's Dean Oliver rolled out his "QBR" metric which is based on Mathlete-like expected points on a 100-level scale; 50 is average. Mouseover the headers for clarification (explanation here):

PLAYER	Pass EPA	RUN EPA	SACK EPA	PEN EPA	TOTAL EPA	ACT PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
Connor Cook-MSU	23.2	3.2	-1.6	0.6	25.3	175	81.5	81.3
Gary Nova-RU	25.3	6.3	-4.7	0.4	27.3	187	77.1	78.2
J.T. Barrett-OSU	22.3	8.0	-7.1	0.5	23.7	220	72.3	74.4
Tom Armstrong-NEB	13.2	7.9	-3.8	1.0	18.2	246	63.2	63.9
Jake Rudock-IOWA	25.7	2.6	-3.7	2.2	26.8	193	73.5	60.8
Wes Lunt-ILL	31.6	-2.0	-6.1	1.1	24.3	222	67.8	58.1
Devin Gardner-UM	14.7	5.0	-9.3	-0.1	10.3	210	52.9	56.4
Mitch Leidner-MN	6.8	4.4	-5.9	-0.1	5.2	134	50.7	56.3
Nate Sudfeld-IND	10.9	3.6	-4.4	2.0	12.1	221	54.4	56.2
C.J. Brown-MD	11.7	7.0	-8.0	0.7	11.4	224	52.5	50.0
Tanner McEvoy-WIS	2.1	5.6	-2.2	1.1	6.6	144	51.8	47.4
Trevor Siemian-NW	20.1	-0.3	-11.3	-0.1	8.4	276	46.1	46.2
C. Hackenberg-PSU	16.2	-1.0	-14.2	-0.6	0.3	299	38.1	37.9
Danny Etling-PUR	3.0	1.7	-5.5	-1.1	-1.8	201	35.2	30.7

I pulled the raw QBR in each game to plot it against Football Outsiders' S&P+ so you can see the individual performances in context. Gardner's games are labeled and Michigan's remaining opponents are shown.

click embigs

[after the jump: trends, discussion]

 
I HAVE THE POWER

1. Indiana (21-3)

LAST WEEK clobbered Nebraska and Purdue at home.

THING Neither of these games was even remotely competitive; Indiana put up 0.4 more points per possession than their opponents in both.

OTHER THING Will Sheehey was Indiana's leading scorer against Purdue, shooting 9/9 with a couple of threes mixed in. That guy only went 2/5 from the line so is probably not good at basketball.

OTHER OTHER THING This week in Indiana basketball is not really worth talking about.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Hulk Hogan versus guy in black trunks going by his real name.

Yes, that does appear to be a shirt that reads "suck it Hoff." I was working on a complicated metaphor in which Michigan State—Indiana's latest Game Of The Century opponent—is David Hasselhoff. It didn't work.

2. Michigan State (22-4)

LAST WEEK Destroyed Michigan at home. Had more difficult time with Nebraska. Which, like, cumong man.

THING I am dead certain that MSU let Nebraska score 64 points in 63 possession days after holding Michigan to 52 in 65 just to piss Michigan fans off.

ADRIEAN PAYNE THREE POINT SPECIALIST WATCH Zero attempts against Michigan, two misses against Nebraska, 7/15 on the year.

OTHER THING Maybe if Tom Izzo wasn't Michigan State's coach this assertion wouldn't be seen as a shot at Michigan…

"If we had played Northern Michigan and Eastern Michigan, we would have been ranked fifth, sixth, the whole time — like Michigan has, they've been a top five, seven team. Indiana has been that. You almost act like they aren't getting better. Maybe they are getting better, but you don't see it as easy as ours."

…but it will be. Michigan nonconference opponents include three teams that have been ranked most of the year: Pitt, NC State, and K-State. Michigan State has two of those, Kansas and Miami. Instead of Northern and Eastern, State played Tuskegee and Nicholls State.

THIS WEEK IN STOP ASKING FOR POST TOUCHES This is mostly a section designed to get Michigan fans stop asking for post touches to Morgan and McGary based on the success of the older, larger, more involved post guys on Michigan State, and I think we've seen enough of Michigan's attempted post touch routine to know that's not a good idea. Anyway: against Michigan, 8/14 from the floor with two FT attempts, both makes, 5 assists, 2 TO. Against Nebraska, similar shooting with a bunch of trips to the line as Nebraska proved incapable of handling those dudes.

THING THEY ARE LIKE annoying. Yes, I MAD, U MAD guy.

3. Michigan (22-4)

LAST WEEK Run off the court by Michigan State. Struggled on defense against Penn State but did end up winning relatively comfortably.

THING Michigan's 35 free throw attempts against Penn State were more than they had in their previous four games combined.

OTHER THING Pick a thing Michigan did against MSU and they did it horribly. Rebound? 37% OREB for MSU, 18% for M. Take care of the ball? They lost the turnover batle 16-8. Shoot? 44/32 versus 55/35. The game was only as close as it was because Michigan won the scrubwar at the end and MSU was under 50% at the free throw line.

OTHER OTHER THING Almost as damaging in the realm of possession-by-possession tempo-free ranking bits was the Penn State game, an eventual eight-point win that Michigan was predicted to take by 25. Penn State put up 1.08 points per possession, which is scary.

While the Nittany Lions' previous outing against Iowa was efficient, before that Penn State put up 0.84 against Nebraska and 0.75 against Purdue. Penn State is tenth or worse in three of the four factors and seventh in rebounding, dead last in the league in offense by a good margin. Michigan's defense was porous against those guys and seems to be going backwards as the season progresses.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Manny Pacquiao.

Penn State was a tentative outing against a meatball to recover.

4. Wisconsin (15-7)

LAST WEEK Third consecutive OT game ended in a loss, this one at Minnesota. Destroyed Ohio State at home.

THING Wisconsin is currently 9th in the Big Ten at shooting twos even after tearing up OSU for 61.

OTHER OTHER THING …and they shot 36%/25% against the Gophers in an OT loss. Their defense is impressive even if it seems impossible that they get such a nice whistle.

OTHER OTHER OTHER THING Jared Berggren now owns a majority share in Amir Williams after holding him to this line: 9 minutes, one missed 2, four fouls, no other stats.

OTHER THING Ben Brust had a double-double in that game with 15 points and 11 rebounds.

WISCONSIN PREVENTS THREE POINTERS WATCH Minnesota went 4/17, OSU 3/12. It's a skill.

RYAN EVANS FT WATCH 2/8 against Minnesota—they finally lost a game because of it—and 1/2 against OSU. Now at 40% on the season.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Lawyers.

 

5. Ohio State (18-7)

LAST WEEK Fairly rote ten point win against Northwestern. Destroyed by Bo Ryan's flaming eyes at the Trohl Center.

THING remember how you felt as a Michigan fan before the Penn State game? That's where OSU is right now, having lost 3 of 4, with one loss an OT gut punch, another a not-very-competitive outing against Indiana, and the most recent a depressingly uncompetitive road blowout.

A slight difference between Michigan and OSU: the Buckeyes have Minnesota and MSU up next instead of Penn State. Thanks, Penn State.

OTHER THING The script has flipped from earlier in the year. Previously a defensive juggernaut without the ability to score, OSU has seen opponents put up 1.2, 1.2, 1.1, and 1.2 points per possession in their last four games, one of which was against Northwestern. The normally incapable Badgers shot 61% from two the last time out. 

THING THEY ARE LIKE Ditto Manny Pacquiao.

6. Illinois (17-8)

LAST WEEK Continued streak of playing like basketball team instead of collection of geese in heat, wiping out Purdue and Northwestern by 20+ points.

THING They're in you guys. It's not even a question. Home games against Penn State and Nebraska will be enough to do it, and while the rest of their schedule is pretty brutal—@ M, @ Iowa, @ Ohio State—they're not even on the bubble anymore and those teams are in various states of reeling. 

TYLER GRIFFEY WATCH Followed up monster Indiana-game-winning week by going 0/7 from three. He did put up 12 points against Purdue and acquire four offensive rebounds in each game, so there's that.

NNANNA EGWU WATCH Only 22 minutes against the Boilers; 2 and 2 as far as rebounds go. 18 minutes against Northwestern, in which he acquired one defensive rebound and fouled out. DREB rate has slipped behind DJ Richardson.

OTHER EGWU WATCH Sam McLaurin's impossibly low DREB rate is still dropping! He's down to 6.4%. What an amazing player.

THE ENNUI QUESTION GTFO

THING THEY ARE LIKE power donut. Inexplicable first image hit for "power donut": Gerald Ford.

It appears to be a GQ article about Picard-esque bald haircuts. You will agree that all of this is very Illinois.

7. Minnesota (18-8)

LAST WEEK Received rousing huzzah from league for beating Wisconsin in OT; put Iowa on the bubble with massive loss to them.

THING Tubby's tendency to give scads of minutes to terrible players was somewhat reduced against Wisconsin, with the Hollinses playing 43 minutes each and all starters going at least 34 in a 45 minute game. He's learning!

OTHER THING …or he's giving Oto Osenieks 20 minutes against Iowa. I guess his entire team was playing like death so maybe that's understandable. Also, Rodney Williams went out with a shoulder injury and only played ten minutes. Maybe this is all easily explainable by common sense. Except it is a Tubby Smith substitution pattern, so it is not.

THIS WEEK IN MINNESOTA INTIMIDATION FACTOR Actually got beat up by the Badgers on the boards thanks in no small part to Team, which was credited with six Badger OREBs. But Mbakwe was held to one offensive rebound. Jared Berggren can put that in his pocket, too.

Meanwhile in the game they lost by a billion, they outrebounded Iowa 37%-30%.

THIS WEEK IN NO ONE EXPECTS RANDOM MINNESOTA PLAYER INQUISITION Andre Ingram had all three of Minnesota's blocks in the Badger game; Elliott Eliason had four of their five against Iowa.

ENNUIWATCH Q: Is Minnesota on the bubble? They're under .500 in the league and their best nonconference win is against Memphis—they have no other Ws over at-large teams.

A: Absolutely not? I feel like they are a bubble-ish team looking at their accomplishments but no one else in the world does. The worst I can find for them on Bracket Matrix are a few eights; overall their seed average is dead on 6. Crashing the Dance also has them in that range. I guess wins over MSU/Illinois/Wisconsin in the league are good, but there's also a loss to Northwestern and one to Iowa in there.

I believe what the world is saying here, but it feels to me like Minnesota should be at least somewhat fearful of dropping out; they aren't anywhere near it.

THING THEY ARE LIKE A guy who plays Mastermind by putting in random guesses until the game is over. BONUS: mustache.

8. Iowa (17-9)

LAST WEEK Almost blew it all to hell at Penn State but eked out a two-point win. Come home and put the spurs to Minnesota in a 21-point win.

THING Basketball is weird.

OTHER THING It's strange to me that Iowa's defense is better than their offense, except then I think about Iowa's offense and this makes sense.

THIS WEEK IN WHERE'S ROY DEVYN WALDO He's back. A high FTR guy, he was always going to have a lot of fun playing the hackers at Penn State, and he put up 22 points thanks to 11 FTAs.  Success was less assured against Minnesota, but he got to the line 8 times in that one and put up 15 points.

He's still turning the ball over too much and not shooting that efficiently overall. If it's a choice between that and not existing, Iowa will take existing.

ENNUIWATCH The Minnesota game gave them a bit of a boost—they now appear on five Bracket Matrix brackets—but they're actually below Arkansas on CTD. They've got two left  against Nebraska and a home game against seemingly done-for-the-year Purdue. Win those—no sure thing—and lose at Indiana—yup—and it comes down to two things:

1. Can Iowa beat Illinois at home?
2. Can Iowa pick up a quality win in the Big Ten Tourney?

Two "yes" answers and they're in. One and they're sweating it out for Dayton. Zero and it's NIT all the way.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Steve Ballmer.

Sweaty, kind of crappy, prone to be a yelling freak in a suit, not entirely ready for the job they've been put in.

HENRI LINE OF ENNUI

Now with actual line

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9. Northwestern (13-10)

LAST WEEK Ten point loss at OSU; blown out by Illinois.

THING Northwestern shot 33%/19% against Illinois.

OTHER THING But they had kale!

THING THEY ARE LIKE Trying to eat kale.

10. Purdue (12-14)

LAST WEEK Lost by 2 and 28 to Illinois and Indiana, respectively.

THING In their last eight games, Purdue has either won (in OT by 3 against Iowa, by 9 against Penn State) or lost by 15+. If Iowa doesn't make the tourney, that's going to be… well, one of five games they kick themselves over. This kick will be quite a bit harder than the others.

AJ HAMMONS WATCH Terrible week, with 10 points against Illinois (point Egwu, admittedly) and six against Indiana. Indiana was never going to let him blow up again. No FTAs and few blocks.

RONNIE JOHNSON THREE POINTER WATCH 0/2 against Indiana; 15%.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Mike Samples.

 

11. Nebraska (12-14)

LAST WEEK Clubbed by Indiana. Vaguely competitive against Michigan State.

THING I have no idea how Nebraska kept in contact with MSU looking at the box score. Oh, I guess Dylan Talley had 28 points. He could develop into… oh, he's a senior. Never mind.

RAY GALLEGOS BOMBS AWAY WATCH Ten three pointers launched in both games. Two makes against Indiana, zero against MSU.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Scott Bailey.

12. Penn State (8-12)

LAST WEEK Almost got off the schneid versus Iowa and had a decent shot against Michigan.

THING At the rate Northwestern is losing players, this winless Big Ten season thing is not in the bag. Kenpom doesn't know that Northwestern is operating down half its team and still has the Nittany Lions with a 20% shot at winning in that one

THING THEY ARE LIKE GopherQuest, still GopherQuest.

Tourney locks sans Illinois-2011-style implosion

projected seeds included

#1 Indiana, #2 MICHIGAN, #2 Michigan State, #4 Wisconsin, #6 Ohio State, #6 Illinois, #7 Minnesota

Probably In

N/A

Bubble

N/A

Northwestern Memorial wrong side of the bubble award

Iowa

Rutgers Memorial what's a bubble award

Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, Purdue