basketball preview

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Rodney Williams, marginally athletic dude.

THE THEM

The going doesn't get any easier for Michigan after their loss at Ohio State, as the Wolverines travel to Minnesota to take on KenPom's seventh-ranked team.

Minnesota has been one of the surprise teams in the country on the strength on their athleticism, and that starts up front. Center Trevor Mbakwe is back for his sixth year and has been a terror on the boards, posting the nation's #9 offensive rebound rate and #33 defensive rebound rate. He also shoots 58.3% from the field while drawing a ton of fouls (though he only hits 65.8% of his free throws) and producing a top-100 block rate on the other end of the floor. Mbakwe doesn't just get by on his athletic ability—he's a strong post-up player who can score with his back to the basket.

Power forward Rodney Williams is a smaller, bouncier version of Mbakwe. He's got a nearly-identical 58.1 2P% to go with impressive offensive rebound and block rates and a propensity for getting to the line, where he has similar struggles (64.7 FT%). Unlike Mbakwe, Williams doesn't do so well on the defensive glass, and he'll shoot the occasional three (31.6 3P%). In a game full of athletes, Williams is the most likely to throw down a Sportscenter-level dunk.

While Mbakwe and Williams do much of the work on the glass, Minnesota wouldn't be the country's best offensive rebounding team without help from their guards. Their pair of 6'4" starting wings, Joe Coleman and Austin Hollins, boast 7.2 and 7.2 offensive rebound percentages, respectively; for comparison, Glenn Robinson is at 9.8%, while none of Michigan's starting guards has an OR% above 1.8. Coleman does most of his scoring work inside the arc (54.0 2P%), while Hollins takes over half his shots from three-point territory, where he shoots 39.5%.

Rounding out the starting lineup is point guard Andre Hollins, a sharpshooter (43.0 3P%) who dishes out a lot of assists but also struggles with turnovers. The two Hollinses and Coleman all get a healthy number of steals, as well.

If Michigan can get the Gopher starters into foul trouble, there's a serious dropoff to their replacements off the bench. Backup guard Julian Welch is having a horrid year shooting from both inside and outside the arc. Spectacularly-monikered guard Maverick Ahanmisi is a decent three-point threat, but he also has an ugly 28.7% turnover rate. 6'8" spot-up shooter Oto Osnieks has connected on just 2-of-20 three-point attempts this year, while backup center Elliott Eliason has a nasty love affair with worst shot in basketball—according to hoop-math, 62% of his shots are two-point jumpers, and he makes just 17% of them.

THE RESUME

Minnesota has a solid slate of wins against KenPom100 teams, beating Michigan State at home by 13 and blowing out Illinois on the road by 17 to go along with wins over Memphis, Stanford, Florida State, USC, and North Dakota State. Their two losses have come to Duke (by 18 in a neutral-site game) and Indiana (by 7 at Assembly Hall after digging themselves a huge first-half hole).

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

The ridiculous offensive rebound rate obviously stands out here, and that numbers hasn't dropped much in conference play—the Gophers are first in the B1G at 44.9% while maintaining their strong shooting and foul rates. On the negative side, they've also kept up their ugly turnover rate, though this is an area Michigan doesn't usually exploit.

The dropoff has come on defense, where the Gophers still give up a ton of offensive rebounds but have stopped forcing turnovers (17.6% in four conference games). Opponent shooting has taken a jump near the D-I average on the strength of a big rise in two-point shooting; presumably, Big Ten teams are better equipped to handle Minnesota's athleticism up front.

THE PROTIPS

Everybody hit the glass. Something's got to give when Minnesota's absurd offensive rebounding goes against Michigan's stellar defensive rebounding. Four of Minnesota's five starters are big threats to hit the offensive glass, so it's imperative that every Wolverine on the floor is focused on boxing out and securing any rebounds.

There's an added benefit to the guards hitting the defensive boards—I'll have much more in a post tomorrow, but the short version is that Michigan gets out in transition best when their guards are getting rebounds. If they can counter on the fast break and force Minnesota to stop selling out for offensive rebounds, that'll give Michigan a huge edge.

Get physical. Putting Mbakwe and Williams on the line is preferable to letting them dunk, of course. With Jon Horford back in the rotation, Michigan has three bigs plus Robinson to throw at those two. On the other end, if the Wolverines can get back to going to the basket—something they couldn't do at all against OSU—the Gophers don't have the depth up front to mitigate any foul trouble.

If Michigan can't draw fouls on offense against Mbakwe and Williams without getting too many shots blocked, they have another way to get them in foul trouble: take charges. Mbakwe and Williams aggressively attack the rim, but they may be less inclined to do so if they're hit with a couple early offensive fouls.

Work the pick and roll. Michigan has to get their bread-and-butter play going again after Ohio State shut down that aspect of their offense. Against Minnesota, there's the extra benefit of drawing Mbakwe—and his shot-blocking prowess—away from the basket.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Minnesota by 3

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Q&A with Maize & Brew at The Daily Gopher.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Yours for only $17.99!

THE THEM

After a tune-up of sorts against a shorthanded Northwestern squad, Michigan tips off conference play in earnest at home against 11-3 Iowa. With the Hawkeyes coming off a narrow four-point loss to Indiana (albeit at home), Michigan can't afford a letdown performance.

Iowa is led by 6'6" wing Roy Devyn Marble, the team's highest-usage player and a threat both inside (65% shooting at the rim, per hoop-math, with a high FT rate) and outside (36.4 3P%). It'll be interesting to see who matches up with Marble defensively for Michigan—I'd guess they go with Hardaway over Stauskas.

The matchup with point guard Mike Gesell should be a bit more lopsided, though that's not a knock on Gesell. The freshman has held his own so far this year, knocking down over 50% of his twos with a solid assist rate (24.7%), though he's turning the ball over at nearly the same clip (24.3%). He's flanked by fellow 6'1" freshman Anthony Clemens, who's made a surprising ascent into the starting lineup on the strength of a sky-high assist rate (39.8%, 16th among national qualifiers)—he's an inconsistent shooter and prone to turnovers but clearly a playmaking threat.

The most efficient Hawkeye is 6'8" power forward Aaron White, who's connecting on 61.4% of his twos and attempting a ton of free throws—drawing 6.8(!) fouls per 40 minutes. White also takes good care of the basketball, though he'd be even more efficient if he learned to stop shooting threes (5-23 this season).

Manning the middle is 7'1" freshman Adam Woodbury, a four-star recruit providing a strong interior presence—57.6 FG% with solid rebounding and block rates. Woodbury is another Hawkeye who gets to the line frequently, but unlike White and Marble he doesn't convert once he gets there (51.9 FT%).

Iowa is able to go nine deep with relative ease. You may remember forward Melsahn Basabe from his stellar freshman season two years ago—he's regressed and now mans a spot on the bench, but still has the potential to put up solid rebounding and scoring numbers. Fellow forwards Zach McCabe and Eric May both have starting experience as well, while guard Josh Oglesby is a high-volume outside shooter looking for his stroke (19-62 on threes this year, 4-9 on twos).

THE RESUME

Iowa giving Indiana a scare may be the most impressive game on their resume; aside from a nine-point home win against #47 Iowa State, all of their wins are against teams ranked #150 or below, and seven of those are ranked #228 or worse. They've struggled away from home, losing by 12 in a neutral-site game against #20 Wichita State and by 16 at #132 Virginia Tech.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

The above numbers are impressive, no doubt, though they do require a caveat: Iowa currently boasts the #320 strength of schedule this year. While their defense has held up well against quality competition, the offense has regressed significantly—twice they've been held well below one point per possession against top-50 teams. Offensive rebounding in particular takes a big hit against their better opponents.

Iowa relies on getting to the rim—and the line—to create most of their offense. According to hoop-math, they shoot 71% at the rim, but just 37% on two-point jumpers and 31% from three. Their FT rate ranks 18th nationally, however, and the Hawkeyes knock down a respectable 71.5% of their attempts from the charity stripe.

Defensively, that eFG% numbers should regress to the mean—Hawkeye opponents hit just 27.9% of their threes despite getting them off at a national-average rate. They are tough inside, however, with a 13.3% block rate making opponent two-pointers difficult to come by.

THE PROTIPS

Collapse inside. As said above, Iowa relies on getting to the hoop to generate their offense, either through layups or drawing fouls. The good news is that they don't have a dead-eye outside shooter to make teams pay for collapsing inside—Marble is the team's best shooter but also their best threat on the drive. Michigan is ranked #2 in the country at opponent free throw rate, so they should be able to keep Iowa from getting to the line frequently, but the lack of a true shot-blocking presence is a concern.

Hit the glass. Iowa's other main option for scoring—the putback—also plays into a Michigan strength, as the Wolverines are 7th nationally in defensive rebounding. Tough break, Iowa.

Attack Woodbury. Iowa's two-point defense has been stellar this season in large part due to the presence of Woodbury. The seven-footer hasn't cracked 20 minutes in any of their losses, however, and fouled out of the Indiana game. At this point, Michigan opponents are wise to avoid playing zone lest they face a three-point barrage. The Wolverines should be able to run plenty of pick-and-roll action, which would accomplish two things: get Woodbury away from the basket—and out of shot-blocking position—and potentially get him into foul trouble, forcing Iowa to go small.

Keep doin' what you've been doin'. I mean, yeah.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 13

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Maize 'n Brew preview.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Willie the Wildcat, presumably in happier times.

THE THEM

Poor Northwestern, man. The team that has never made an NCAA tournament appearance wasn't expected to make a ton of noise after losing all-time leading scorer John Shurna; slim hopes for postseason play were dashed entirely when Drew Crawford was lost for the season after tearing his labrum last month.

Now the Wildcats must open Big Ten play against Michigan without the services of leading scorer Reggie Hearn, who will miss the game with an ankle injury. Even though Tim Hardaway Jr. likely won't play tonight with an ankle issue of his own, this bodes unwell for Northwestern's upset hopes.

Sophomore point guard Dave Sobolewski is the team's only healthy double-digit scorer, not to mention the lone returning starter from last year's team in the lineup. Sobocop takes a little over half his shots from beyond the arc, hitting those at a 49% clip; he's decent on the drive (52 FG% at the rim) but hasn't found his stroke on two-point jumpers, connecting at a 12% rate per hoop-math.com.

Hearn should be replaced at the two by senior Alex Marcotullio, a career role player who can knock down the three and otherwise doesn't stand out as doing anything very well or very not-so-well. Freshman Kyle Abramson steps in for Crawford at the three; he's another decent outside shooter (35.3 3P%) that doesn't do a whole lot else.

BONUS POOR NORTHWESTERN: Marcotullio has been limited by back spasms.

The Wildcats do have some size up front in 7'0" freshman center Alex Olah and 6'8" senior forward Jared Swopshire. Neither is a stellar rebounder, though Olah at least is a good shot-blocker. Neither hits 50% of their twos, though Swopshire contributes(?) 30.8% three-point shooting. Olah does boast an unusually high assist rate (26.2%); he also shoots 41.7% from the line. Advantage up front: Michigan.

The bench no longer really exists because of injury. Only seven Wildcats average over 15 minutes per game—two of those are Crawford and Hearn.

THE RESUME

Northwestern currently boasts a 9-4 record with quality wins over KenPom #28 Baylor (by four on the road) and #43 Illinois State (in overtime, neutral site). Losses have come to #53 Maryland, #139 Illinois-Chicago, #41 Butler, and #50 Stanford, all at home.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

These numbers are probably highly misleading with the absence of Crawford and Hearn, who have missed just four combined games, not to mention a schedule with seven opponents ranked #235 or worse on KenPom. Michigan can expect Northwestern to take care of the ball and shoot well from outside; without their two top players, it seems unlikely the Wildcats will be able to threaten inside the arc.

Defensively, Northwestern will break out the 1-3-1; while they've done well limiting opponent shooting, especially inside the arc, they're not forcing the turnovers one would expect from an aggressive zone defense. While the rebounding numbers are decent on their surface, Dylan points out that the Wildcats were abused on the boards by Stanford, Maryland, and Butler—the closest comparables on their schedule rebounding-wise to Michigan.

THE PROTIPS

Key on Sobocop. The only conceivable way I can see Northwestern winning this game is by catching fire from three, and Sobolowski is by far their best outside shooter. If the Wildcats set a screen for him, Michigan should be going over the top and hedging like crazy—let anybody else on that team try to beat them.

Attack Sobocop. Hell, why not foul the guy out—he's committing 3.2 fouls/40 and hasn't faced a Trey Burke. If Sobolewski reaches a point where he can't commit to contesting Burke's drive because he's worried about fouling out and leaving the Wildcats with nothing, it's game over, man.

Do not contract Northwestern Injury Curse Virus. Please and thank you.

Keep doin' what you've been doin'. I mean, yeah.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 12, which is not KenPom's prediction because KenPom is accounting for data from Crawford and Hearn. This number would be higher if not for Big Ten road game.

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Tremendous preview. Maize 'n Brew preview.

Optimism abounding at Sippin' On Purple!

How many injured players are there on Northwestern's stat sheet with more points per game than Dave Sobolewski, Northwestern's top leading healthy scorer?: That would be two.

How many teams in the country are ranked higher than Michigan: That would be one.

How many conceivable ways could Northwestern win a game in that scenario?: That would be zero.

Or not.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: The World's Most Phallic Building, according to something called Cabinet Magazine.

THE THEM

This evening, Michigan hosts cross-county foe Eastern Michigan, which currently boasts a 6-3 record that includes a win over Purdue. This means they could give Michigan a test, yes?

Well, probably not. Purdue appears to be in serious rebuilding mode, while Eastern's resume is otherwise built on wins over non-DI competition or dregs like Texas Pan American. Relevant game: a 36-point road loss to Syracuse.

The Eagles can post a challenge with their size, however—according to KenPom, they're 11th nationally in effective height. That's in large part (hey-o) due to 7'0" center Da'Shonte Riley, easily the team's best rebounder as well as a major shot-blocking threat (15.6% block rate, #7 nationally) in the middle of their 2-3 zone. Riley—a transfer from Syracuse—lacks deft touch around the basket, shooting just 37.5% this year from the field and 38.9% from the line.

Glenn Bryant, apparently somewhat athletic

6'8" forward and Arkansas transfer Glenn Bryant also provides decent shot-blocking and offensive rebounding, and unlike Riley can occasionally put the ball in the basket, hitting 44.7% of his twos. Unfortunately, Bryant is apparently under the impression he can shoot threes, but has hit just one of his 13 attempts from beyond the arc this year.

The team's wings are also their most effective shooters (a relative term when applied to this EMU squad). 6'3" shooting guard Derek Thompson is their outside threat, with 60% of his attempts coming from three—he's hitting a respectable 38.3% from outside. 6'6" guard/forward Daylen Harrison is a slasher who gets to the line frequently—he's connecting on 52.9% of his twos and 86.2% of his free throws, making him by far the team's best scoring option inside the arc, despite turnover issues. He's also an above-average rebounder on the defensive end.

Rounding out the starting lineup, at least according to EMU's game notes, is 6'2" guard Austin Harper, but he's only averaging 7.6 minutes per game this season. In Harper's limited action, he's been boom-or-bust, with a sky-high assist rate (31.4%) and turnover rate (24.4%). The point guard who sees the most minutes is 5'11" freshman Jalen Ross, who's 7-for-31 from the field this year with assist and turnover rates in the low 30s.

That's nothing compared to backup point Ray Lee, though—the freshman is posting an astounding 39.9% assist rate and 36.9% turnover rate. He's also got an ugly 42.9 eFG% while taking a high number of shots. Do not let Ray Lee get his hands on the Crisler T-Shirt cannon.

Other bench contributors include 6'9" shot-blocking specialist Jamell Harris (36.7 eFG%) and 6'3" guard J.R. Sims (34.8 eFG%).

On second thought, don't let any EMU player near the T-shirt cannon.

THE RESUME

Eastern's signature victory came over Purdue, of course; none of their other conquered foes are ranked higher than #259 on KenPom. They've been defeated by #6 Syracuse, #118 Illinois-Chicago, and #212 Jacksonville State, all on the road.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

The offense is a mess, with EMU currently sitting at #332 in the country in adjusted efficiency. Slightly above-average offensive rebounding does not cover for horrific shooting, lots of turnover, and infrequent trips to the line.

The defense is surprisingly stout; the 2-3 zone has forced a ton of turnovers, and the going inside is tough, with EMU eighth nationally in block rate. The opponent shooting number is bolstered by opponents shooting just 28.1% from beyond the arc; this is almost assuredly unsustainable with the Eagles allowing three-point attempts—a more accurate portrayal of perimeter defense—on just under 41% of opponent shots.

THE PROTIPS

Bombs away. Trey Burke probably won't be replicating his drive-and-create performance from the West Virginia game—the old adage is you don't beat a 2-3 zone by dribbling through it. If the stats are any indication, however, the perimeter will be open for business. Paging Nik Stauskas:

Meanwhile Nik Stauskas has been lethal, scoring 1.5 points per zone possession with a 82% effective field goal percentage.

Michigan has actually been relatively ineffective against zone defenses this year, though they haven't seen them too often, due in no small part to Stauskas.

Don't miss the gimmes. Eastern has been woeful at keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass. Michigan has been very effective this year at creating second-shot opportunities. The battle of the boards should go in Michigan's favor in a major way. Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary have been known to miss a few easy ones, though. So, please make those, guys.

Let them shoot? EMU's 68.1% mark from the free-throw line is nothing to write home about, but it's positively Stauskian compared to their field goal shooting. Between their awful shooting and large lineup, there's no reason to overplay an open shooter instead of getting in position for rebounds. There will be rebounds.

Keep doin' what you've been doin'. I mean, yeah.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 24. I'm tempted to predict a larger margin, but Eastern is one of just a handful of teams in the country that plays at a slower tempo than Michigan.

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Tremendous preview. Maize 'n Brew preview.

Bravo, ClearEyesFullHart. Bravo.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE THEM

Michigan's last high-major test before conference play begins comes against a struggling 4-4 West Virginia squad, which is coming off a four-point road loss to Duquesne. The Mountaineers have not fared well against tougher competition; they're 1-4 against KenPom top-100 teams, including a 44-point blowout loss at Gonzaga. Their lone win in that category came by a single point at home against #63 Virginia Tech.

West Virginia could pose some problems, however, especially up front. 6'10" center Aaric Murray is a very strong rebounder on both ends of the floor, hits 52.7% of his twos, and can even step out and knock down the occasional triple. Murray is also an strong defensive presence, boasting a 7.8% block rate.

Murray's counterpart up front, 6'9", 260-pound forward Deniz Kilicli, does two things well: pulling down offensive rebounds (12.4 OR%) and drawing fouls (6.5 fouls drawn/40 mins.). Unlike Murray, Kilicli is a bit of a mess offensively, hitting just 41.1% of his field goals (all twos) and 51.4% of his free throws, along with a high turnover rate. The fact that he's WVU's highest-usage player may explain some of their offensive woes.

6'1" guard Juwan Staten, the team's leading scorer at 10.6 points per game, is dangerous when he gets to the basket (65 FG% at the rim) but settles for a lot of two-point jumpers, of which he doesn't hit many—according to hoop-math.com, 65% of his shots are two-point jumpers, and he knocks down a paltry 22% of them. 5'11" point guard Jabarie Hinds is having a rough shooting year and doesn't have impressive assist numbers. 6'3" wing Terry Henderson gets a surprising number of offensive rebounds but also has awful shooting stats—14-43 from two and 6-22 from three this year.

The bench is led by 6'1" slasher Gary Browne, who boasts a solid O-rating of 111.9 despite an anemic 36.6 eFG%—like Kalicli, he gets to the line at a very high rate, and unlike Kalicli he actually takes advantage (81.8 FT%). 6'7" forward Keaton Miles is the team's defensive specialist, boasting high block and steal rates, and is a solid shooter inside the arc and at the line, though he's rarely used offensively.

Naturally, West Virginia's most efficient offensive player, backup big Kevin Noreen, also has the team's lowest usage rate.

THE RESUME

Aside from Virginia Tech, victories have come against Marist, VMI, and Marshall. Losses have come at the hands of Gonzaga, Davidson, Oklahoma, and Duquesne. Interestingly, WVU has played only two home games, winning both; Saturday's game will be their fifth at a neutral site.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

In case you didn't gather this above, the Mountaineers are a horrendous shooting squad, hitting 43.2% of their twos and 26.4% of their threes. They take care of the basketball and pull down a bunch of their misses, however, bumping their offense into the top 100 efficiency-wise; if they're not getting second-shot opportunities, they're in trouble.

Defensively, WVU is mediocre in just about every aspect, which in totality actually makes them an above-average unit. If there's an area to attack, it may be the perimeter, where they're allowing a higher-than-average number of three-point attempts; that's more indicative of poor perimeter defense than three-point percentage against.

THE PROTIPS

Box out. Blinding insight, I know. West Virginia has a very tough time putting the ball in the basket on their first attempt. They do manage to get a second attempt at a pretty high rate. Keep them from doing that and this could easily turn into a blowout.

Collapse inside. West Virginia doesn't have a single player with more than nine attempts who's shooting more than 27.3% from three. They do have a couple guys, most notably Staten, who can get to the rim. Given the option of helping out against their slashers or staying out on their shooters, the choice is obvious.

Attack the paint. Both Murray and Kalicli are prone to foul trouble. Getting those two off the floor—particularly Murray, the team's best inside scorer, rebounder, and interior defender—would go a long way towards securing victory. West Virginia's most common lineup actually features three players 6'1" or shorter, which means Tim Hardaway Jr. and Nik Stauskas can take advantage of mismatches; they'll have to resist the temptation to simply shoot over their defenders, however.

Actually, Stauskas can shoot whenever he wants. Do what you do, man.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by ten

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. ClearEyesFullHart diary.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Thundercats hoooooo

THE THEM

Yes, you read that correctly: KenPom has Michigan at a 37-point favorite (with a 99.7% win probability). The good news for Binghamton is that would actually cover the 38-point Vegas spread, the largest in Divison I so far this year.

Binghamton—a program cratered by scandal—is not good; in fact, they're 344th, third-from-last, on KenPom. Their lone wins in a 2-8 season have come against #252 St. Peter's and Division III Marywood; only one of their losses has come to a team ranked higher than #230. KenPom doesn't have them favored to win a game for the rest of the season. They have an 8% chance of beating Stony Brook. At home.

Of the players who account for at least 16% of the team's possessions when on the floor (KenPom "role player" status), none has an offensive rating higher than 93.5. As a team, they score 0.84 points per possession while allowing 1.09. This, obviously, is god-awful.

The Bearcats do feature one starter—forward Taylor Johnson—who's hit 6-of-11 twos and 13-of-24 threes this year. Naturally, he's by far their lowest-usage regular. Guard Jimmy Gray, who's shot nearly twice as many threes as any other player, is connecting at a 26.7% clip.

Prepare for a massacre.

THE RESUME

Covered above. Is bad.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

Ouch.

THE PROTIPS

Don't play the worst game of your collective lives. Full stop.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by all of the points

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Tremendous preview.