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Seedwatch

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Michigan may have gone 1-1 last week, but it was a good 1-1 compared to results for various other teams like Miami (losers at home to KP#84 Georgia Tech), New Mexico (went down to Air Force), Kansas (annihilated by Baylor), and Florida (at Kentucky is the most understandable loss of this bunch, but it is still a loss). As a result, they have moved up a bit. Crashing The Dance still has them a three; the Bracket Matrix has them as the last #2, in an indistinguishable heap with Michigan State and Miami for two of the three final twos.

Michigan probably cannot salvage a one seed after the Indiana collapse. Even if Michigan ran off four wins in four days to win the BTT they would have a hard time passing the current anointed four of Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, and Louisville. Duke and Indiana are pretty much out of the question; Gonzaga is extremely unlikely to lose; Louisville's run off seven straight wins after the wacky 5OT game against Notre Dame and was two games better in the BE than Michigan was in the Big Ten. Maybe if the league hadn't consigned the Big Ten championship game to a novelty that can flip seeds within the conference but do little else because it's so late, but… uh… they did.

The conference tournaments will decide whether Michigan's a 2 or 3, it looks like. The best result possible is a strong 2 that avoids Duke. I guess it is possible Michigan would fall to a 4 if they were to gack it up against Penn State again; barring that a 1-1 performance in Chicago will at least lock up a 3.

How much does this matter? Projected 6s according to the Bracket Matrix: UNLV, Butler, UCLA, VCU. Projected 7s: Colorado State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Memphis. Not much.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville

Nonconference Watch

i changed the pictures. run, BJ, run!

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Their season is over at 6-26 after being the third-worst defensive team in the country. Binghamton: January 19th. Season over at 3-27. Fourth-worst offensive team in the land.

Central won a couple games late but finished 4-12 in the MAC and went out in the first round of their conference tourney; done at 11-20. Bradley fulfilled its destiny to be .500 at something by losing their last three games to finish 16-16. Cleveland State is also done after getting blown out by Loyola Chicago and Illinois Chicago—be nice, Chicago—at 14-18.

Still alive: Eastern Michigan, which had a rematch against Northern Illinois in the MAC tourney opener that they won 45-44. They play Miami (not that Miami) tomorrow. Western won their division and plays the winner of that game for the right to play OHIO in the semi.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (24-7)

@ DePaul: W 81-66.

DePaul never had a chance, because they are DePaul. They finish the regular season Kenpom's #6 team and will be a team highlighted in every tempo-free-aware bracket preview because they'll have one of the biggest gaps between Kenpom projected ability and seed in the field. I'm with the skeptical committee: Pitt built their KP profile against nobody in the nonconference—other than Michigan their only KP100 opponents were #99 Lehigh and #75 Detroit—and anyone who can keep them from destroying the offensive boards will put their offense in considerable difficulty.

Pitt enters the last Big East tournament the four-seed. They've acquired the last double bye and will take on either Syracuse or someone real bad at basketball on Thursday during Michigan's game against Penn State.

SEEDWATCH: Up one to a five on BM; they're well ahead of the top 6, UNLV.  CTD has them a seven still. They're actually below Minnesota(!) over there.

Kansas State (25-6)

TCU: W 79-68. @ Okie State: L 76-70

Elsewhere in painful ways to blow a share of a conference title, K-State took on Okie State with a shot at going 15-3 in the Big 12 and tying Kansas. They led by four with five minutes left, whereupon OSU went on an 8-0 run before free throw time. Sad pandas. Let's be sad pandas together, eating bamboo and watching the Lifetime Movie Network.

K-State saw the Cowboys put up 63% from two, which was enough despite having a major possession advantage.

SEEDWATCH: Drops to a 4 on BM; a five on CTD.

North Carolina State (22-9)

Wake Forest: W 81-66. @ Florida State: L 71-67

You might have this image in your head of Florida State as a typical Leonard Hamilton outfit that grinds all up on you like a guy wearing Axe at the club and makes life extremely difficult for everyone. This would not be correct. They are 10th in the ACC in defense, yielding almost 38% of defensive rebounds to the opponent amongst other deficiencies. They are barely above .500 and lost to Mercer, South Alabama, and Auburn earlier this year.

NC State losing to them is not understandable except insofar as NC State is not actually all that good at basketball. All the stats are basically even; NC State was undone again by M-versus-Indiana level defensive rebounding (lost 55% of DREBs to FSU) and allowing 56% on twos.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: 11 minutes but not active against FSU, though he did have a block(!). 12 minutes against Wake.

SEEDWATCH: Still an 8 on BM; CTD now agrees. As mentioned, this team is probably the least fun potential matchup amongst all the 8-9 seeds for a one. If they, like, are trying they're good. I would hate Mark Gotfried if I was an NC State fan though.

Arkansas (19-12)

@ Missouri: L 93-63. Texas A&M: W 73-62.

Arkansas's massive home-road disparity ended their faint bubble hopes before their game against Missouri even got started. 9-9 in this SEC with one decent nonconference win against Oklahokma (that at home) isn't going to get it done.

But seriously though, I would like you to find a team with a crazier home/road split in conference play than the Razorbacks:

• HOME: 9-0, double digit wins over Florida and Kentucky. Beat Missouri.
• AWAY: 1-8, lone win against horrible Auburn. Annihilated by mediocre to terrible teams like A&M (69-51), South Carolina (75-54), and Vandy (67-49).

At home, Arkansas can play with anyone—beat anyone. On the road, they lose to SEC Penn State by 21. The Razorbacks get Vandy again to start the SEC tourney. Kenpom labels the location "semi-away." Semi-hide the semi-children, Arkansas is going to get semi-blown out.

SEEDWATCH: Thanks for playing. Enjoy your NIT home games.

West Virginia (13-18)

@ Oklahoma: L 83-70. Iowa State: L 83-74

Still not good at basketball.

SEEDWATCH: lollercoaster

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Yesterday; no games.

Tuesday

nyet

Wednesday

nyet

Thursday

Pitt versus Probably Syracuse, 2PM, ESPN
MICHIGAN versus Penn State, 2:30 PM, BTN
K-State versus Texas/TCU, 6PM, not televised
NC State versus Virginia Tech, 2:30PM, ESPNU

Friday

Maybe Pitt versus Probably Georgetown, 7PM, ESPN
Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Wisconsin, 1:30 PM, ESPN
Probably K-State vs Okie State/Baylor, 8:30PM, ESPNU
Probably NC State vs Virginia, 2:30PM, ESPN2

Saturday

Probably Not Pitt versus Probably Louisville Or Marquette, 8:30PM, ESPN
Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Probably Indiana, 12:40 PM, CBS
Maybe K-State versus Probably Kansas, 5PM, ESPN
Possibly NC State versus Probably Miami, 1PM, ESPN

Sunday

Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Probably OSU or MSU, 2:30PM, CBS
Probably Not NC State versus Probably Duke, 1PM, ESPN

Seedwatch

The moral of last week: don't lose to Penn State, you guys. Providing the Nittany Lions their only win of the conference season was sufficient to knock Michigan out of one-seed contention for now. Despite the Michigan State win, Michigan has fallen into a mass of teams duking it out for spots on the 2 and 3 lines on the Bracket Matrix, a hair behind Louisville and Florida for the final twos. This isn't a lag effect; brackets updated today are evenly split, with guy-whose-job-this-is Jerry Palm declaring Michigan a 3.

Crashing the Dance also has Michigan in the 3 range, though they're significantly closer to the last #1 seed than dropping to a 4. Kansas and Gonzaga are the main beneficiaries, with Miami hanging on the cusp of a one after a narrow defeat at Cameron. I still think Gonzaga's schedule should disqualify them from a one seed but since Michigan's not in line to replace them, whatever man.

Could Michigan get back in the conversation by winning their last two? It's not out of the question. Indiana is by far the #1 team in all these ranking systems and a win over them would at least vault them up to a solid 2. But they'd have to jump a half-dozen teams at this point, one of whom is the extremely-unlikely-to-lose Gonzaga. Getting back on the top line is not entirely out of the question, but it requires a closing streak that is, to put it kindly, unlikely.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Miami

Nonconference Watch

i changed the pictures. run, BJ, run!

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Binghamton: January 19th. Central Michigan: won! Against Northern Illinois, but still. IUPUI is done with the regular season and has a Saturday matchup with SDSU that will probably end them. Kenpom gives Binghamton a 1% chance of advancing past Stony Brook in the America East tourney, also on Saturday.

Cleveland State lost their final game and enters conference tourney play at 5-11; their season probably ends tonight. Bradley remains a 500-ish MVC team. Eastern Michigan beat Western in a 50-49 OT Wisconsin special. Both teams have a couple of games before their conference tourney kicks off.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (23-7)

USF: W 64-44. Villanova: W 73-64 (OT)

Crushing rebounding and defense against one of the worst teams in the Big East to start their week, then a home escape against 'Nova in which the stats are close to identical save a burst of OT scoring from the Panthers. With just DePaul left, Pitt is likely to enter the Big East tournament as the #4 seed.

The Panthers are going to be a trendy upset pick in the second round what with their sterling Kenpom numbers, but I've watched them enough to be wary of them against any team that can match their size and rebounding. If Pitt isn't crushing the glass it's hard to see them taking out a 2 or 3 seed.

SEEDWATCH: A strong six on Bracket Matrix; a seven on Crashing The Dance.

Kansas State (24-5)

@ Baylor: W 64-61

Scraped by the Bears thanks to excellent two-point D (38%) and a slight TO advantage in a game with lots of offensive rebounds and a swingy win graph:

That's some high leverage right there. May all tourney games not involving Michigan look like that.

K-State has a gimmie against Texas Tech tomorrow and then a season-ender against high-flying Okie State that could spring them to the three line if they perform reasonably in the Big 12 tourney. That one's on the road.

SEEDWATCH: Narrowly a 3 on Bracket Matrix; four on CTD. Jerry Palm says 4.

North Carolina State (21-8)

Boston College: W 82-64. @ Georgia Tech: W 70-57

Given NC State's defensive struggles this year two solid wins over not-great teams is actually a positive step. This is a team that lost to Maryland and Wake Forest, and BC and GT are hovering around 100 in the Kenpom rankings.

BC actually scored just over a PPP in their matchup but could not compete with an NC State team hitting 62% inside the arc and rebounding half their misses. GT shot horribly and turned it over 15 times; NC State got easy distance despite going 1/11 from three thanks to excellent twos and a lot of FTs.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: 16 minutes against BC, four points on three shots, 5 to 1 A:TO. 11 minutes, 8 points on five shot equivalents, 2 A, 0 TO.

SEEDWATCH: 7 on Crashing The Dance, 8 on Bracket Matrix. Drawing these guys in the second round as a 1 or 2 seed would be awful.

Arkansas (18-11)

@ LSU: L 65-60. Kentucky: W 73-60.

Arkansas keeps giving themselves hope at home—wins over UK and Florida—and then blowing it on the road—losses to LSU and Vandy. Their vague flutter towards a spot on the bubble comes down to winning at Mizzou and at home against A&M, plus a run in the SEC tourney.

Likely? No. But not impossible. Crashing the Dance has moved them up from the fringe bubble to Next Four Out territory, with Kentucky and Tennessee the last at large bids in and two more SEC teams (Ole Miss and Alabama) just in front of them. Lunardi also has them in Next Four Out. They've got a 10-20% shot at a bid.

SEEDWATCH: CTD next four out; no one has them in on the Matrix. 

West Virginia (13-16)

Baylor: L 65-62. @ Kansas: L 91-65

At least we won this coaching switch.

SEEDWATCH: exploding seeds that kill spiders like in Zelda or something

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Yesterday; no games.

Tuesday

Illinois at Iowa, 7:06 PM, BTN
Ohio State at Indiana, 9PM, ESPN
Arkansas at Missouri, 7PM, ESPN

Wednesday

MICHIGAN at Purdue, 7PM, BTN
Minnesota at Nebraska, 9PM, BTN
Wake Forest at NC State, 9PM, ESPN3

Thursday

Penn State at Northwestern, 7PM, ESPNU
Wisconsin at Michigan State, 9PM, ESPN (rooting interest: meteor)

Friday

nyet

Saturday

Minnesota at Purdue, 12PM, BTN
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 1:30, no tv(?!?)
Texas A&M at Arkansas , 2PM, ESPNU
Nebraska at Iowa, 2:21 PM, BTN
NC State at Florida State, 9PM, ESPN2

Sunday

Wisconsin at Penn State, 12PM, BTN
Illinois at Ohio State, 12:30, ESPN
Indiana at MICHIGAN, 4PM, CBS
Northwestern at Michigan State, 6PM, BTN

Seedwatch

projection hazy, ask again later

An easier patch of schedule has stopped Michigan's losing business, stabilizing their seed. Meanwhile, two projected ones last week have gone down. Florida lost to Missouri on the road; Miami went down against Wake Forest for their first ACC loss.

The resulting brackets are uncertain about the top line for the first time in a while—Duke and Indiana are Bracket Matrix locks and then there is a ton of disagreement. Gonzaga, Michigan, Miami, Florida, Kansas, Louisville, Arizona, and even New Mexico get Bracket Matrix support, though a couple of those outliers are from dot blogspots (no offense to dot blogspots). Miami and the Zags get tentative nods in the hivemind. Crashing the Dance goes with Kansas and Florida, with Michigan in sixth.

On the other hand, Jerry Palm has dropped the Gators and 'Canes all the way to the three line and put them in a terrifying bracket featuring one-seed Michigan hypothetically staring down this gauntlet after an obligatory round one victory: VCU, Louisville, Florida. Yeesh.

Anyway, I'm eyeballing it and:

• Gonzaga's good wins are against Oklahoma, KSU, and Oklahoma State. (They've played half of the Big 12.) They have losses against Illinois and Butler and have a super-easy conference schedule.
• Kansas has a win against OSU, a sweep of KSU, a split against Okie State, and losses to MSU, Oklahoma, and TCU(!).
• Florida has blowout wins over Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Marquette. They split with Mizzou and Arkansas, and lost to Arizona and K-State.
• Arizona beat Miami, NCSU, and Florida in the nonconference schedule. They've got four Pac-12 losses and have not beaten a team headed to the tourney in conference save the OT opener against Colorado.
• Miami beat MSU, NCSU and Duke. They swept UNC and beat Virginia. They lost to Arizona, Wake Forest, Indiana State, and Florida Gulf Coast. They had some injury early in the season that may have hampered them, but Florida Gulf Coast? Seriously?
• Michigan beat Pitt, KSU, NCSU, split with OSU, lost at OSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, and MSU.

If I'm the committee Michigan has the most understandable four losses—all these teams have four except the Zags—and has wins to go with anyone plus the attractive feature that no one battling it out for the #3 or #4 seed has beaten anyone they've lost to except Kansas. I am with Palm: if the season ended today they would be on the top line. It does not; Michigan will have to at least split the MSU and Indiana games to be projected a one before the Big Ten Tourney. Florida and Miami going down does give them some argument with a 3-1 record down the stretch.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Michigan, Kansas

Nonconference Watch

ark bid: remote possibility

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Binghamton: January 19th. Central Michigan: also January 19th. All of these are still unchanged since last week.

Cleveland State lost 50-41 to Wright State last week and is headed for a 5-11 Horizon record. Bradley remains a 500-ish MVC team. Eastern Michigan… was in Bracket Busters? What the…? Eastern is a .500 MAC team. I'm so confused. (By the way, remember that Ray Lee kid people unearthed as a possible late Burke replacement? He played eight games early and hasn't since. It looks like they're going to redshirt him.)

Western was also in Bracket Busters, winning against Pacific. They're nowhere near an at-large bid even now, but they'll win their division in the MAC.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (21-7)

Notre Dame: L 51-42. @ St John's: W 63-47.

Played a Wisconsin special against Notre Dame, which we're defining as a sub-60 possession game in which neither team cracks a PPP. Pitt didn't even get 80% of the way there as they went 0/8 from three and got pounded on the boards. Rule: if Pitt gets pounded on the boards, they are going to lose.

As per usual when Pitt loses a game like this, a long stretch where their offense dies is the culprit. After taking a 28-24 lead with just over 16 minutes left, the Panthers scored six points over the next ten minutes.

The St John's win was a decent one against a .500 BE team. Pitt's excellent shooting D a came up against a team that can't shoot or rebound, and that was it.

SEEDWATCH: Dropped a spot on both sites we track here, down to a five—a tenuous five—on the Matrix and a six on CTD. Palm has them a 7.

Kansas State (23-5)

West Virginia: W 71-61. @ Texas: W 81-69. Texas Tech: W 75-55.

Three comfortable wins over teams K-State should beat. K State grabbed their usual ton of OREBs in all, shooting well inside the arc and turning the ball over a lot… you get the idea. Their PPP was 1.2 over the course of these games thanks to a ton of free throws and the shooting from two.

SEEDWATCH: Still a four on BM; CTD actually moved them down to a five. Palm says four.

North Carolina State (19-8)

FSU: W 84-66. @ North Carolina: L 76-65.

Florida State can't score with these guys this year, especially when TJ Warren is going nuts with 31 points on 18 shot equivalents and eight(!) offensive rebounds amongst NCSU's 21(!) total; the Wolfpack got back 58% of their misses. Game over, man. Florida State is absolutely terrible at rebounding, if you're curious.

Then North Carolina got its revenge. Too many turnovers for the Wolfpack and some ugly free-throw shooting—CJ Leslie was 0/4—doomed them. This one lurched around wildly, with NC State surging from ten down to take a four-point lead in the first ten minutes of the second half. Four minutes after that lead was established, NC State decided they'd done enough scoring for one game. They were not correct.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: Back to the salt mines: ten minutes against FSU with two points and an assist; five minutes against UNC with one missed three, an assist, and two fouls to his credit.

SEEDWATCH: Five on CTD, Six on the Matrix.

Arkansas (17-10)

Georgia: W 62-60. @ Florida: L 71-54.

Arkansas remains on the bubble-bubble and could get on the bubble by winning out. A two point home win over Georgia does not suggest they are going to do that what with games against Kentucky and Missouri left.

SEEDWATCH: nyet.

West Virginia (13-12)

@ Kansas State: L 71-61. Oklahoma State: L 73-57.

Y'all be bad at basketball.

SEEDWATCH: poppy seed muffins that get you arrested for opiods.

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Was yesterday. K-State beat Texas Tech by lots.

Tuesday

Indiana at Minnesota, 7PM, ESPN
Nebraska at Wisconsin, 9PM, BTN
Florida at Tennessee, 9PM, ESPN

Wednesday

MICHIGAN at Penn State, 6:30 PM, BTN
Purdue at Iowa, 8:36 PM, BTN

Thursday

Ohio State at Northwestern, 7PM, ESPN2
Gonzaga at BYU, 11PM, ESPN2

Friday

nyet

Saturday

Alabama at Florida, noon, ESPN
Kansas at West Virginia, 2PM, CBS
Penn State at Minnesota, 3PM, BTN
Nebraska at Illinois, 5:15 PM, BTN
Miami at Duke, 6PM, ESPN
Iowa at Indiana, 7:30, BTN
Arizona at UCLA, 9PM, ESPN

Sunday

Purdue at Wisconsin, 1PM, ESPN
Michigan State at MICHIGAN, 4PM, CBS
NC State at Georgia Tech, 6PM, ESPNU

NOTE: these posts ballooned to 3500 words, so I'm chopping them in half. The Big Ten Power rankings will become a separate post running Tuesday since the Big Ten never plays on Monday; seedwatch, nonconference updates, and viewing guide will run today.

Seedwatch

Well, it finally happened. Going 1-3 in their tough stretch has moved Michigan out of the ranks of the one seeds in the circuits of computer formulas and minds of bracket projectors. The Matrix has Michigan fifth, on the verge of a top seed, but that has a lot to do with lag. The vast majority of 1 votes come from brackets that haven't been updated since Michigan got demolished by State. Almost everyone who's update since has moved them down a line.

The news is grimmer on Crashing The Dance, which has hurled Michigan all the way down to eighth. They're still a spot ahead of MSU. Miami is the main beneficiary, sliding up to the top line virtually everywhere after a narrow escape against Clemson yesterday.

Michigan still has the ability to play themselves back into a top seed. To be there by the end of the regular season they would probably have to win out; if they split their upcoming home games against MSU and Indiana they could probably wrest a one seed away by winning the league tournament. The bet here is they end up a 2.

Projected ones: Florida, Indiana, Duke, Miami.

Nonconference Watch

ark bid: remote possibility

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Binghamton: January 19th. Central Michigan: also January 19th. All of these are unchanged since last week.

Cleveland State crammed in 3 games this week, two losses, and is a bad Horizon team. Bradley remains a 500-ish MVC team. Eastern is the same in the MAC. They're fourth nationally in block rate, though. They're sending back 17% of opponent twos! And 341st in defensive rebounding.

Western is going to win their division of the MAC but still cannot crack the KP 100 because they do things like lose to BGSU and not blow out that Northern Illinois team that infamously had four points at the half against Eastern.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (20-6)

@ Marquette: L 79-69

Pitt gave up 60% on twos and sent Marquette to the line 29 times; they also allowed the Fightin' Wades to rebound 48% of their misses. Result: 1.27 PPP allowed and defeat despite playing a lot better on offense than they usually do. That's an aberration from a usually very good Pitt defense. Marquette may be a team to keep an eye on in your brackets.

SEEDWATCH: Still a five on CTD; four on the Matrix, but they're a hair away from five as well.

Kansas State (20-5)

@ Kansas: L 83-62. Baylor: W 81-61

Reeling Kansas got off the mat in a big way in a game K-State was never really in. The usually stout Wildcat rebounding got destroyed 45%-18%, and Kansas shot 54% from two.

K-State then turned around and blew out a Baylor team that's on the bubble despite losing to Charleston and Northwestern; in that one it was an avalanche of Baylor turnovers that did them in, mostly late. A six minute scoring drought whittled away a large K-State lead to two seven minutes into the second half. From there, K-State blew the doors off.

SEEDWATCH: Status quo. Four on both sites.

North Carolina State (18-7)

Virginia Tech: W 90-86 (OT)

We have to stop complaining about bad luck ruining what could have been a truly impressive nonconference win for Michigan, I think. Yeah: the last two NC State outings have been a one point win over Clemson and an OT win over Virginia Tech. They're still a little short on the luck end of the ledger, but they are who they are right now, a team that can get in a one-point game with any-damn-body.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: Seems to have earned a bunch of playing time even with the healthy return of Lorenzo Brown. In 21 minutes he had 13 points on 8 possessions used. I take it back, McHobbit.

SEEDWATCH: Five on CTD, Six on the Matrix.

Arkansas (16-9)

@ Auburn: W 83-75. Missouri: W 73-71.

Hey, two wins in a week for Arkansas, one of them against a team headed for the tourney in Missouri, the other on the road, where Arkansas is horrible. Road wins this year for Arkansas include at Auburn, and at Auburn, and also at Auburn.

Arkansas is now on the bubble to get on the bubble. They'll have to go at least 4-2 down the stretch to get in the conversation. With one of those games at Florida, that's a tall order. NIT looks good, though.

SEEDWATCH: nyet. CTD has them 12 teams away from a bid; Bracket Matrix doesn't even know their name.

West Virginia (13-12)

@ Baylor: L 80-60. Texas Tech: W 66-64.

Bob Huggins looks like a ragecomic drawing. That is all.

SEEDWATCH: ain't no seed

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Notre Dame at Pitt, 7PM, ESPN
West Virginia at K-State, 9PM, ESPN

Tuesday

Indiana at Michigan State, 7PM, ESPN (I punt on rooting interest.)
Florida State at NC State, 9PM, ESPN2
Virginia at Miami, 9PM, ESPNU
Florida at Missouri, 9PM, ESPN

Wednesday

Minnesota at Ohio State, 7PM, BTN
Wisconsin at Northwestern, 9PM, BTN

Thursday

Penn State at Illinois, 8:15, BTN
Iowa at Nebraska, 9PM, ESPN2
Duke at Virginia Tech, 9PM, ESPN

Friday

nyet

Saturday

Miami at Wake Forest, 1PM, ESPN3
NC State at North Carolina, 4PM, ESPN
Arkansas at Florida, 7PM, ESPNU

Sunday

Illinois at Michigan, 1PM, ESPN
Michigan State at Ohio State, 4PM, CBS
Northwestern at Purdue, 6PM, BTN

The Status

Chaos! This feature doomed Florida the moment it declared the Gators a one-seed lock, and then things got weird. Indiana blew a lead against Illinois. Kansas lost to TCU(!) and followed that up with a loss to Oklahoma to establish their first three-game slide since the Cretaceous. Michigan went down to Wisconsin thanks to a half-court shot. Duke is the only projected one-seed from last week to make it through unscathed, and they ended up beating 10-13 Boston College by one measly point.

The top teams are coming back to the pack, changing what seemed like a simple matter of four teams for three spots into a much more open battle. Kansas is probably done at this point. That TCU loss is an anchor. Miami, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Syracuse are now in the conversation. While The Bracket Matrix's one-seed projections are unchanged from last week, Crashing The Dance's formula has put Miami on the one line at the expense of Indiana; Kansas has actually fallen to a terrifying three-seed to go with terrifying three-seed Louisville*.

The common thread here is that the Wisconsin loss has only burned up some of Michigan's lead. They're the top overall seed at BM, and tied for second at CTD. So, #1 it remains. The gaps are narrow enough now that a loss at Breslin would put them on the fringe, I think.

*[If there's any debate about whether getting a one seed is a big deal or a non-deal, here are CTD's projected threes: Kansas, Michigan State, Louisville, New Mexico. Here are the fours: Butler, Kansas State, Minnesota, Georgetown. It's a big deal to get the latter group in a hypothetical Sweet Sixteen matchup instead of the former.]

Projected ones: Florida, Indiana, Duke, Michigan, still.

The Nonconference Folk

pitt rising

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Binghamton: January 19th. Central Michigan: also January 19th. Eastern is creating unwatchable .500 MAC basketball—they're 300th or worse in three of the four factors on offense—weekly. Cleveland State is 4-7 in the Horizon. Bradley is dipping a bit below a .500 MVC record.

Only Western seems to be a good low major at 7-3 in the MAC, though they lost to near KP300 opponent Ball State last time out. Kenpom still projects them to a 20 win regular season.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (20-5)

Seton Hall: W 56-46, @ Cincinnati: W 62-52

The Panthers seem to have figured it out and are cruising down the stretch, picking up quality win after quality win. They're on a seven-of-eight streak with the only loss by three at Louisville; in that stretch they've taken out Villanova, Syracuse, and Cincinnati.

The most recent Cinci game was a lot like the first: all towers and rebounding and bricks from long range. The teams combined to go 3/26 from three in the first matchup; in this one it was 8/33. Twenty-five of those came from the Bearcats; the teams split the makes evenly.

Pitt has a big game at Marquette this weekend and then a relatively easy glide path to the finish. They're looking at a 13-5 conference season, 12-6 at worst. Good win: confirmed.

SEEDWATCH: Five on both the matrix and CTD, up one from last week.

ODDITY: Every five seed on the matrix is from the Big East.

Kansas State (19-4)

@ Texas Tech: W 68-59. Iowa State: W 79-70.

Texas Tech is a lot worse than Penn State and victory is expected no matter where you play them. The main event this week was the Wildcats avenging their loss to Iowa State. That game was an offensive outburst: both teams shot well from the floor and rebounded half their misses; Kansas State got to the line and cut down on turnovers.

The Wildcats go to reeling Kansas tonight; win that and they a couple of Baylor games and Oklahoma State are the only thing standing between them and a two-seed.

SEEDWATCH: Four on both sites.

North Carolina State (17-7)

@ Duke: L 98-85. @ Clemson: W 58-57.

@ RIGHT: YOU CAN'T CHECK HIM

McHobbit got bunches of minutes again with Lorenzo Brown still recovering from injury—Tyler Lewis is his real name, and even with Brown healthy enough to go 32 minutes in the Clemson nail-biter, Lewis still pulled down 27. I may be forced to admit that the McDonald's All American guys did not make a huge mistake.

NC State remains NC State. They tore up Duke's defense to the tune of 1.2 PPP and lost by double-digits because Duke put up 1.4, shooting 64% from two and going to the line a whopping 41 times. It would be very frustrating to be an NC State fan this year. You're telling me you have Richard Howell and CJ Leslie and you can't play a lick of defense? That's on Mark Gottfried.

The Wolfpack then went out and ground out an ugly one against Clemson. They actually trailed by four with 19 seconds left but managed to put up five points in the allotted time.

This isn't a great team, but if they slide to a seven seed or something there is going to be a pissed off two-seed.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: 39(!) minutes against Duke, 13 points on 7 shots, 6 A, 0 TO! Duke fans taunted him about his dead grandmother, which sucks for him but also means he's arrived.

News was less good against Clemson: 27 minutes, hit a couple threes, no assists, 1 TO.

SEEDWATCH: Five on CTD, 6 on Bracket Matrix.

Arkansas (14-9)

Florida: W 80-69(!!!). @ Vanderbilt: L 67-49.

Last week:

.500 SEC continues apace. Florida looms this week. They gon' die.

I meant they were going to lose by 18 to Vandy, a 3-7 SEC team with a loss to Marist. And that they would beat Florida. What a weird team. These guys are still headed for the NIT. Beating Florida might help Michigan move above the Gators on the S-curve, at least.

SEEDWATCH: nyet

West Virginia (12-11)

Texas: W 60-58. @ TCU: W 63-50.

Completed ugly season sweep of Texas; beat up on one of the Big 12's two Penn States. They should not get used to this. They've got one game against Texas Tech left; the rest of it is brutal: Baylor, KState, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State.

SEEDWATCH: alternate universe maybe

CONFERENCE OF POWER RANKING POWER POWER

1. Indiana (21-3)

LAST WEEK led Illinois 70-62 with three minutes left; lost. Cruised away from Ohio State at the Schott.

THIS WEEK IN EVOCATIVE WIN GRAPHS lolwut

THING It was Indiana's defense that betrayed them in that game? Or something? I watched it and I still don't know what the hell happened there. But Indiana put up a 49%/53%/93% shooting night and lost. Illinois hit a lot of tough shots, and one really easy one.

OTHER THING On the other hand, coming off that disappointment and casually rolling the Buckeyes on the road is probably the most impressive win of the season in the league. Indiana had a 17 point burst over the last five minutes of the first half that gave them a halftime cushion they would not relinquish. Ohio State could get no closer than six points the rest of the way.

OTHER OTHER THING They did this by shooting 61% from two against Ohio State! Oladipo and Zeller had crazy, crazy nights. Oladipo was 7/9 from two, hit a three, and 9/10 from the line. Zeller was 8/11 from both two and the line. OSU's two point defense is the thing that they are best at. Yeesh.

THING THEY ARE LIKE pretty scary thing

  

2. Michigan (21-3)

LAST WEEK Won epic knock-down, drag-out overtime game against Ohio State. Lost grim overtime stomper against Wisconsin thanks to half-court heave.

THING Efficient scoring inside the line is something of an issue. They hit 39% against OSU, and only got to the line 11 times. It was 43% against the Badgers and two free throws on 53 attempts.

While the percentages aren't horrible, the inability to get to the line means when the threes aren't falling—and they weren't in Madison—the vaunted Michigan offense sputters to well under a PPP.

Michigan is now 340th of 347 in drawing free throw attempts, and things have only gotten worse in conference play. This is not because Michigan takes an extreme amount of threes: they're only slightly above average at launching from behind the line. Why can't a team with Trey Burke on it get to the free throw line?

OTHER THING Michigan's ceded the #1 offense in the country to Indiana, so previous theories about Michigan's hyper offense making up for their defense no longer apply quite as nicely.

OTHER THIS WEEK IN EVOCATIVE WIN GRAPHS

Pain.

THING THEY ARE LIKE I don't even know man.

 

3. Michigan State (20-4)

LAST WEEK Revenge'd Minnesota at home; eased by Purdue on the road.

THING Happier than anyone about Indiana and Michigan missteps this week; now they're in serious contention. The issue: they are entering their inevitable Big Ten doom schedule, with five of the next six games against Michigan (2x), Indiana, OSU, and Wisconsin. If they make it through that on top of the league they'll have earned it.

ADRIEAN PAYNE THREE POINT SPECIALIST WATCH No attempts against Minnesota. 0/2 against Purdue. Still at 54% on the year.

OTHER THING Gary Harris seems fine, at least for now, but Travis Trice missed both of MSU's games last week, paving the the way for Russell Byrd playing time and Denzel Valentine backing up every spot between the one and the three. Byrd is now pushing into Ronnie Johnson territory after going 0/5 from three this week. Down to 18^. He's only taken nine threes.

THIS WEEK IN STOP ASKING FOR POST TOUCHES Payne and Nix tore Purdue apart, going 11 for 19 and 7/9 from the line with one TO. Minnesota was okay: 4/11, 9/10 from the line. Payne's free-throw shooting has taken off: 49% as a freshman to 70% to 79%.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Sneaky Bagginses.

4. Ohio State (17-6)

LAST WEEK Lost epic OT game against Michigan; lost not so epic game against Indiana.

THING Part of the reason Ohio State got blazed inside by the Hoosiers: Evan Ravenel fouled out in 22 minutes and Amir Williams picked up four fouls in 11 minutes, meaning for the vast majority of the game Ohio State was either playing with their bigs daintily trying to stay on the floor or fielding sophomore Trey McDonald. McDonald had DNP-CDs in seven of his previous eight games.

OTHER THING Deshaun Thomas KPOY Watch: up to seventh. TO rate has dropped under ten percent and he's still launching a third of OSU's shots; efficiency is only down a little over the last couple games.

OTHER OTHER THING I enjoyed Yogi Ferrell's line in his matchup with Craft: one shot, that a missed three, three assists, and a turnover. Clearly he was like "aw hell naw" and just dumped it to his teammates, and wisely so.

OTHER OTHER OTHER THING Craft fouled out, which I didn't even know was possible.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Still going with Deshaun of the Dead here, though LaQuinton Ross has been helping out more of late.

FACT. Via Ace.

5. Wisconsin (15-7)

LAST WEEK Close game at OSU until that late run put it away. Had a ludicrously-fast-by-their-standards game at Illinois (70 possessions!) and dominated it.

THING if you watch these people on purpose you should seek medical attention for a broken brain. 

OTHER THING I don't even want to think about this team.

WISCONSIN PREVENTS THREE POINTERS WATCH Michigan was 5/18, which sounds like a relatively high number of attempts until you find out that they had 53 attempts inside the line. So, yeah.

RYAN EVANS FT WATCH One of five. Wisconsin is really benefiting from refs never calling fouls in any of their games, because they can't shoot free throws. In the Michigan game they met a perfect foil for their weakness. Michigan might have been better off fouling more on defense just to get the refs, like, paying attention.

THING THEY ARE LIKE bug people from Rigel.

 

6. Illinois (15-8)

LAST WEEK IT LIVES. Beat Indiana! Beat Minnesota! Totally going to the tournament with a sub-.500 Big Ten record, you guys!

THING If there was a hypothetical board for Most Justified Big Ten Court Rush Of The Decade, the post-Griffey layup hysteria slots in at an easy #2 behind Watford's three last year. Those two are so far ahead of the pack that I don't even know what #3 would be.

Peanut gallery: If I can get ten justified and unjustified court rushes, I will maintain these boards going forward. Help me out.

 
you too can have this happen for a reasonable fee

TYLER GRIFFEY WATCH I should sell STRUGGLING PLAYER WATCH spots to scufflers nationwide. Griffey not only set off the second most justified Big Ten court rush of the decade but added 12 other points against Indiana, including reasonable (2/6) shooting from three. (My favorite thing from the win over Indiana was Griffey's awkward hot-potato layup as he tried to get the ball out of his hand before the buzzer.) Then in the follow-up victory over Minnesota he put up 16 points on 4/7 shooting from three, hitting four FTs and acquiring three offensive rebounds.

You know what they say: as Tyler Griffey goes, so go the Illini.

NNANNA EGWU WATCH Four points and five rebounds as he fouls out in 19 minutes against Indiana, paving the way for Griffey's monster night (eight rebounds from him, too). Three rebounds in 21 minutes against Minnesota, but that DREB rate is hovering around 13 these days, ahead of several guards on the team.

OTHER EGWU WATCH Sam McLaurin is a statistical marvel even outstripping Egwu. He started and played 28 minutes against Indiana, acquiring one offensive rebound. In 24 against Minnesota, one of each variety. DREB rate: 6.6%. Kenpom, I need anti-leaderboards. I need to know if Sam McLaurin has a lower rebound rate than any player 6'8" or taller in the country.

THE ENNUI QUESTION Ennui? What ennui? With back to back wins over tourney-bound Indiana and Minnesota the Illini have five impressive scalps. They're not even on the bubble anymore.

They could get back on it—this is Illinois we're talking about here—if they lose to Purdue and Northwestern this week. Go 1-1 there and all they need to do to get to the magic 7-11 mark is not blow it in home games against Penn State and Nebraska. Assembly (Not That Assembly) is going to be bonkers for Wednesday's game against Purdue.

THING THEY ARE LIKE

Michigan finds out it's in the tourney, 2009

7. Minnesota (17-7)

LAST WEEK Lost at Michigan State by double-digits thanks to five-minute second-half scoreless streak and five-minute first-half scoreless streak; edged by Illinois at home.

THING Tubby Smith's substitution patterns drive me nuts. At one point in the Michigan State game he had all five starters off the floor. Twelve guys played against State, and hey surprise they were all awful. Elliot Eliason makes sense; he's your backup five. The other six players combined to post 40 minutes, 2 points on 1/4 shooting, 5 rebounds, one assist, and two turnovers.

If your bench is that terrible, it is insane to not have at least two of your high-usage guys out there at all times.

OTHER THING Remember when Minnesota seemed like a fun, interesting, uptempo outfit with a good offense? Since their loss to Michigan they've bested 62 points once, against Nebraska, and have lost games by scoring 48, 44, 50, and 53 points, all in games that featured fewer than 60 possessions. Keep them out of transition and you're good.

THIS WEEK IN MINNESOTA INTIMIDATION FACTOR Rebounded 47% of their misses against Illinois, held Illini to 27% two-point shooting. Rebounded 34% of their misses against Michigan State and held Spartans to 16% OREB.

NOBODY EXPECTS THE HOLLINS INQUISITION Four of five Minnesota blocks against Illinois were from Austin Hollins.

THING THEY ARE LIKE

8. Iowa (15-9)

LAST WEEK Another crippling Amakerian defeat in a two-OT loss to Wisconsin at the Trohl Center*; bounced back to handle Northwestern at home.

*[HT: some guy on twitter I don't remember]

THING Iowa not getting in this year would be brutal on a level approximating Northwestern's Shurna-led near-misses except for the whole Northwestern Has Never Been To The Tournament thing. Iowa losses include this week's 2OT agony, an OT loss to Purdue, two games Iowa led at the one minute mark against State and Minnesota, and a near-ish miss versus Indiana.

THIS WEEK IN WHERE'S ROY DEVYN WALDO Where's Roy Devyn reached epic levels in the Wisconsin loss. In a 50-minute game Marble got 18, mostly early. He went 1-10 from the floor with no free throws, and ate bench. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything whatsoever in OT—a total of six points before the late flurry of free throws and free twos—and Marble stayed glued on the bench with the exception of one defensive possession… on which Marble lost a Wisconsin cutter and the Badgers got an easy two. Brutal.

Marble then went off for 21 points against Northwestern's get-healthy defense. The Hawkeyes have to be hoping that performance gets him settled.

ENNUIWATCH I thought about moving them below the line and did not. Kenpom still has them with a 50-50 shot at a .500 conference record, and you have to imagine that'll be good enough. They've got a quality win over Wisconsin and a bubble win over Iowa State. If they get to 9-9 they'll add one over Minnesota, Indiana, or Illinois. That would probably be enough.

They must have Thursday's game at Penn State, and then if they can beat Minnesota at CHA they'll be cooking. Kenpom has that one 68-67. Set a block of time from 2 to 4 aside for that one.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Probity.

 

HENRI LINE OF ENNUI

 

9. Northwestern (13-10)

LAST WEEK Lost solidly at Iowa.

THING it's about to get ugly for the Wildcats. A home game against Penn State is the only game Kenpom has them winning.

THING THEY ARE LIKE A sad otter.

 

 

10. Purdue (12-12)

LAST WEEK Beat Penn State on the road; didn't really stay in contact with Michigan State.

THING Oh for pants sake, Purdue: 0/10 from three against Penn State, 1/5 against Michigan State. They won that Penn State game because Purdue went 2/20.

AJ HAMMONS WATCH Kid has started to pile up free throws. In his last four games he's shot 12, 3, 12, and 9, hitting 81%. He's at 69% for the year thanks largely to one ugly outing against MSU. If he can keep this pace up, he… well, he can kick it out to wide open but completely hapless three-point shooters next year when DJ Byrd is gone.

RONNIE JOHNSON THREE POINTER WATCH nyet. Did go 2/8 from the line against Penn State.

THING THEY ARE LIKE

 

11. Nebraska (12-12)

LAST WEEK Beat Penn State handily to claim the crown of second-worst team in the league.

THING Andre Almedia blocked three shots against the Nittany Lions, and set off earthquake alarms in Tokyo doing so.

RAY GALLEGOS BOMBS AWAY WATCH A sixth game with more than ten 3PA, going 3/11 against Penn State.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Not Penn State, that's for sure.

12. Penn State (8-12)

LAST WEEK Lost to Purdue by 9, Nebraska by 14.

THING It's over. The two best shots the Nittany Lions had at a Big Ten win came and went this week without so much as a vaguely competitive game. Kenpom has two more Penn State games with a better than 10% chance of victory: Thursday against Iowa and the penultimate game at Northwestern. Chance of winless record now at 57%, and that seems low.

THING The only Penn State player with an ORTG greater than 100 is Tim Frazier.

THING THEY ARE LIKE GopherQuest.

 

Tourney locks sans Illinois-2011-style implosion

projected seeds included

#1 Indiana, #1 MICHIGAN, #3 Michigan State, #4 Ohio State, #5 Wisconsin, #6 Minnesota

Probably In

#9 Illinois

Bubble

N/A

Northwestern Memorial wrong side of the bubble award

Iowa

Rutgers Memorial what's a bubble award

Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, Purdue

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

K-State at Kansas, 9PM, ESPN

Tuesday

Kentucky at Florida, 7PM, ESPN
MICHIGAN at Michigan State, 9PM, ESPN

Wednesday

Nebraska at Indiana, 7PM, BTN
Syracuse at UConn, 7PM, ESPN
Miami at Florida State, 7PM, ESPN2
Purdue at Illinois, 9PM, BTN
North Carolina at Duke, 9PM, ESPN

Thursday

Northwestern at Ohio State, 7PM, BTN
Wisconsin at Minnesota, 7PM, ESPN
Iowa at Penn State, 9PM, ESPNU
Arizona at Colorado, 10PM, PACTEN
Gonzaga at St. Mary's, 11PM, ESPN2

Friday

nyet

Saturday

Pitt at Marquette, 1PM, CBS
Purdue at Indiana, 2PM, ESPN
Virginia Tech at NC State, 2PM, ESPN2
Duke at Maryland, 6PM, ESPN
Baylor at K-State, 7PM, ESPNU
Missouri at Arkansas, 7PM, ESPN2
Michigan State at Nebraska, 8PM, BTN

Sunday

Penn State at MICHIGAN, noon, BTN
Ohio State at Wisconsin, 1PM, CBS
Minnesota at Iowa, 2:06, BTN
Miami at Clemson, 6PM, ESPNU
Illinois at Northwestern, 7:30 PM, BTN

The Status

It looks like four teams are racing for three spots on the one line. Those four teams are Duke, Kansas, Michigan, and Indiana. The reason there are only three spots: Florida. At this point I consider Florida in the barn with 0 SEC losses—maybe one. They'll be a one-seed. They're #1 overall on Crashing the Dance already and their path to a gaudy end-of-season record is considerably easier than anyone else's. Also they are destroying everybody.

On the good side of the ledger, the Big East continued to eliminate itself with Syracuse's loss to Pitt—a loss that happens to help out Michigan quite a bit—and Kansas dropping a game at home to Okie State drops them from the realms of the stone-cold  lock.

Those four teams are neck and neck right now; Duke's scheduling edge is evaporating as they trudge through an ACC that is a three-or-four bid league and lose to the other teams headed for the tourney. Kansas has relatively few big wins—OSU, and then K-State is probably their best—and won't be finding many more down the road. Michigan and Indiana are probably in the best shape as long as they can avoid being hewed down excessively by the Big Ten.

I'm keeping M on the one line since that seems to be the consensus. CtD has them third overall; the Bracket Matrix has them first. RPI remains steady at 7; their forecast is down to 9th. They've fallen behind Indiana in Kenpom. Indiana replaces Kansas by a nose.

Projected ones: Florida, Indiana, Duke, Michigan

The Nonconference Folk

NC State why u no clutch, other than clutch maybe not existing

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th.  Binghamton's win against Maine was followed up with three losses; they're 3-19 on the year. Cleveland State beat UIC their last time out; before that they'd lost four straight. Central is 2-6 in the MAC. Eastern had that famous game against Northern Illinois last week; they lost against Kent State—with Ohio one of two teams within the KP100 in the MAC—this week. 

On the good side of the ledger, Western lost to the top two teams in the MAC to kick off their conference schedule and haven't lost since. They're now 6-2 and approaching the KP100. Bradley continues on their path towards a .500 MVC record.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (19-5)

@ Louisville: L 64-61. Syracuse: W 65-55. Seton Hall: W 56-46.

Pitt was four points away from a monster week (and day) but could not pull it out at the most ridiculously named arena in the entire universe. Instead they pick up a needed signature win and hold off an upset attempt from Seton Hall. The various seeding projection whatnots have generally moved Pitt up two to four lines, into the six-seed range. Amazing what one win can do for you when you've got a shiny record.

SEEDWATCH: Last six on CTD; a six on Bracket Matrix.

Kansas State (17-4)

Texas: W 83-57. @ Oklahoma: W 52-50.

K-State bounced back from a couple losses against the top end of the Big 12 with a blowout of Texas and a narrow win against Oklahoma. I saw most of the Oklahoma game, and it was the usual: ugly. Kansas State blarted out 0.87 PPP and found victory.

The difference was, uh, turnovers? Or something. Kansas State is not a very fun team to watch. I get mad at their point guard lots.

SEEDWATCH: Five on CTD and Bracket Matrix.

North Carolina State (16-6)

@ Virginia: L 58-55. Miami: L 79-78.

Glabdangit, NC State. Virginia is the Wisconsin of the ACC. They have in fact beaten Wisconsin in a 56 possession game that I recommend not watching should you come in contact with a copy of it. It is the Basketball Ring.

Anyway, they're a pretty tough out, especially on the road. NC State performed about as expected, and lost narrowly. Then they had a home game against surging Miami that they were winning until a tip in with under a second left. NC State has now lost four ACC games by a total of 7 points. The difference between the Wolfpack being the good win they are now and being a good win that looks like a great win is not much.

A game at Duke looms next; after that it's clear sailing, except this is a team that has lost to Wake Forest.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: McHobbit renaissance yo.

Lorenzo Brown, NC State's starting point guard, got injured, and now I can't talk nearly as much crap about McHobbit. His 15 minutes against Virginia were suboptimal—three shots, two assists, NC State collapsed to 0.87 points a possession. ORtg superficially high thanks to low usage in a low-scoring game; bad overall.

Against Miami it was a different story: dude was on the floor for 36 minutes, put up 16 points on 8 shots, and had 5 assists to 1 turnover. Well done, McHobbit. Well done.

SEEDWATCH: Six on Bracket Matrix, five on Crashing The Dance.

Arkansas (13-8)

@ Alabama: L 59-56. Tennessee: W 73-60.

.500 SEC continues apace. Florida looms this week. They gon' die.

SEEDWATCH: nyet

West Virginia (10-11)

Kansas: L 61-56. Texas Tech: W 77-61.

WVU had a surprisingly good outing against Kansas and then did what everyone does to Tech. Status quo.

SEEDWATCH: alternate universe maybe

CONFERENCE OF POWER RANKING POWER POWER

1. Indiana (20-2)

LAST WEEK We need to invent a new word for what they did to Purdue, at Mackey. Something with connotations including flaying alive and evisceration. Then they had a solid home victory over Michigan.

THING About the last thing Indiana opponents need is to deal with yet another scoring threat. Unfortunately for them, Yogi Ferrell's early-season shooting woes are disappearing rapidly. While he still doesn't put it up much, in Indiana's five-game win streak he's 9/13 from 2 and 9/17 from three. He was nails at the free throw line late in the Michigan game, not that he really had to be.

OTHER THING It kind of goes without saying that Victor Oladipo continues his reign of terror. After assembling all of the hype machines after his dominating performance on national TV against Michigan State he put up 17 points on 12 shots against Purdue and 15 on 12 against Michigan. In those two games he added five more steals against just two fouls, and a couple of his misses against Michigan turned into spectacular Cody Zeller tip dunks after Oladipo drew help defense.

Even though Tim Hardaway Jr had a pretty good night against the Hoosiers it was clear Oladipo was on another level.

OTHER OTHER THING No, Jordan Hulls can't really check Nik Stauskas, but Stauskas couldn't shoot on Saturday night.

THING THEY ARE LIKE The Constructicons. Their powers have united and now they cannot be stopped moooohahaha.

2. Michigan(20-2)

LAST WEEK Routine 20-point win against Northwestern; could not defy Kenpom or Vegas at Assembly Hall in aforementioned game.

THING If you had to point to one thing that doomed Michigan it was three-point shooting. Before a late flurry after the game had been decided but for the ritual of fouling, Michigan was 4/18. Most of those were excellent looks from good shooters, but pre-flurry Hardaway and Stauskas were 1/8. Against a similarly elite outfit, ballgame.

OTHER THING Mitch McGary cracked 20 minutes for the first time in his career against Indiana and put up a great box score, but it's hard not to look at the early Horford foul that saw him eat bench and correlate it with IU's scoring blitz to open the game. While Michigan got their defense kind of figured out after the first ten minutes, maybe not having to throw the freshman out there at the beginning of the game would have helped.

OTHER OTHER THING If there was heroball from Burke against Indiana, it was necessary heroball.

THING THEY ARE LIKE The Autobot version of Destructor minus a leg or arm or something. I forget. There was one, right? Here's a picture of a damaged Optimus Prime.

 

3. Ohio State (17-4)

LAST WEEK Blew open a close game against the Badgers with a 13-0 run spanning a third of the second half. A 13-0 run against Wisconsin is the equivalent of a 20-0 run against human teams. OSU was then mildly threatened by Nebraska. Andre Almedia missed a putback that would have brought the Huskers within three points late.

THIS WEEK IN EVOCATIVELY CORRECT WIN PROBABILITY GRAPHS. Ohio State vs Wisconsin:

A dead heat until Ohio State decided to stop missing shots at the 13 minute mark; over seven minutes later when Wisconsin finally broke their run. No 1-3-1 turning point here, just a period of blazing heat.

THING A pattern emerges with that secondary scoring bugaboo: against bad defenses other guys get involved—Lenzelle Smith had 21 against Nebraska. Against good ones, it's Deshaun of the Dead again. He had 25 points in the low-possession Wisconsin outing; only Aaron Craft made it into double digits with him and the other three starters combined for seven points.

OTHER THING Deshaun Thomas KPOY Watch: up to ninth. Had a bad game against Nebraska (15 points, 20 shots, 0 A, 2 TO); had a great one against Wisconsin (25 on 17, 4 A, 1 TO).

THING THEY ARE LIKE Stupid Saturday morning cartoon theme continued:

I expect several iseewhatyoudidthere.gifs in the comments.

4. Michigan State (18-4)

LAST WEEK Followed up last week's analyst-tizzy-inducing road loss to Indiana with home game against Illinois. Found themselves down ten at halftime, ruthlessly pulled it back right after halftime, and escorted the game to the finish.

THING That Illinois game was one of the weirdest of the year. Illinois shot their way to a ten-point halftime lead, and then MSU scored on almost literally every possession they had in the second half. They shot 16/18, rebounded both misses, and ended the game with a whopping 34 free throws to their credit, scoring 80 points in a 65 possession game… and winning by five.

Did Illinois annihilate from three? Not really: 9/25. It was hard to figure out how the game was close watching it live, and it's equally hard figuring it out in the box score afterwards.

ADRIEAN PAYNE THREE POINT SPECIALIST UPDATE. Just 1/3 against Illinois, bringing his recent spree down to… uh… 7/10. Had a relatively quiet game outside of that, with just eight points in 38 minutes.

Remember when Adriean Payne had tiny lungs that prevented him from playing more than 20 minutes a game? Yeah. That may not have been true.

OTHER THING Russell Byrd notched a seven-minute trillion. Alex Gauna and Matt Costello were single missed two pointers away from joining them.

These events (rather, non-events) happened after Travis Trice went out with a concussion in the first half; Gary Harris was somewhat limited with back spasms. If either condition persists there's going to be a guy on the floor who doesn't do much except pass it around the perimeter.

THIS WEEK IN STOP ASKING FOR POST TOUCHES This isn't going to work out when Illinois is dead set on fouling everything that moves. Payne and Nix combined for 4/7 shooting with 6 FTAs, 3 A, 3 TO.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Bald Bull: a challenge but extremely fragile.

artist's impression of Michigan State in the event of persistent Gary Harris back spasms

5. Wisconsin (15-7)

LAST WEEK Close game at OSU until that late run put it away. Had a ludicrously-fast-by-their-standards game at Illinois (70 possessions!) and dominated it.

THING Don't be fooled by the relatively close final score of that Illinois game. The Badgers had a 15 point lead when fouling time kicked in with two minutes left. Illinois whittled it down against the worst free-throw-shooting team in the conference but had already flatlined on the Kenpom win graph.

Note that the extended foul time is a major reason for all the possessions in that game.

OTHER THING Little-used backup guard Frank Kaminsky had his first outing of more than ten minutes since December and was Wisconsin's go-to guy down the FTA stretch. He had 14 attempts from the line, almost doubling his season total. He hit 12.

WISCONSIN PREVENTS THREE POINTERS WATCH This goes beyond skill and enters the realm of creepy: Illinois, the three-jackingest team in the conference, was 2/13. Ohio State was 3 of 5. Five!

Conference opponents are getting threes off at a 21% clip. That's #1, obviously. They're third nationally.

RYAN EVANS FT WATCH None against Ohio State. He shares this distinction with his teammates: Wisconsin acquire even one measly free throw. It was a different story in the extended Illinois game: Evans went 5 for 11.

THING THEY ARE LIKE A congressional bill banning gun scopes.

6. Minnesota (15-5)

LAST WEEK Clubbed Nebraska. Edged a narrow home game against Iowa.

THING You can do this every week in this league, but wow Minnesota has a rough road coming up: @ MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, @ Iowa, @ OSU, Indiana. All of those are losable and if you escape that .500 you're high-fiving each other.

OTHER THING I know Trevor Mbakwe is more of a garbage man than a guy you can go to in the post but man it seems like a huge waste when he's 2/5 from the floor in consecutive games. He just doesn't take many shots but it's weird that he was at 20% during his last healthy season and has dropped almost two and a half points this year.

THIS WEEK IN MINNESOTA INTIMIDATION FACTOR Had more offensive rebounds than Nebraska had defensive rebounds. Held the Huskers to four OREBs themselves. Rebounded 41% of their misses against Iowa but actually lost the board war thanks to a heroic effort from Team, which secured a whopping six OREBs for the Hawkeyes. Go Team.

Minnesota did acquire seven blocked shots against Iowa, though.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Sludge.

I think, anyway. The powerful dumb one.

7. Iowa (13-7)

LAST WEEK Amaker bubble team status: locked in. First it was the uninspiring win over Penn State to keep hopes alive, then a strong game against a good opponent (Minnesota) that still ends in defeat.

THING The rims scream for relief from your frequent three-pointers, Iowa. Have you no decency, at long last?

THIS WEEK IN WHERE'S ROY DEVYN WALDO Wow: 17 minutes, 0 points for Marble against the Gophers. He didn't even do much against Penn State other than miss a bunch of threes.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Turtleneck sweaters.

8. Illinois (15-8)

LAST WEEK Continued stellar impression of 2012 Illini with losses against Michigan State and Wisconsin. Now 2-7 in the league.

THING Dying by the three continues apace. The Illini are dead last in three point shooting in conference play at 25%; they're third in launching them. They are dead last in eFG% D, tenth from two and tenth from three.

TYLER GRIFFEY WATCH Did not attempt a three. Doesn't even want to be around a basketball right now.

NNANNA EGWU WATCH One rebound in 25 minutes against Michigan State, and he fouled out. To be fair, the Illini only had 14 defensive rebounds for the game because Michigan State was hitting everything they threw up. Against Wisconsin, seven rebounds in 33 minutes, one offensive. Egwu also fouled out in this one.

This is progress! Egwu has passed point guard Tracy Abrams in DREB rate and has tied DJ Richardson.

OTHER EGWU WATCH Egwu backup and Coastal Carolina grad-year transfer Sam McLaurin has a DREB rate of 6.9. He is 6'8".

THE ENNUI QUESTION They can still make it to 7-11, 20-12 with wins over Butler, Gonzaga, and OSU. They just have to beat Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, and Iowa, and then they've got four more swings at quality wins. They can do it. They'll get at least one more week above the line as games against Indiana and at Minnesota are not must-wins. Then they will probably lose to Purdue by 60, at which point I'll move them under the line.

THING THEY ARE LIKE WHO WATCHES THE WATCH WATCHERS

HENRI LINE OF ENNUI

9. Northwestern (13-10)

LAST WEEK Beat up by Michigan; beat up on Purdue.

THING The Michigan box score looks like Ohio State minus Deshaun Thomas: one guy over ten points, that Alex Olah with ten.

OTHER THING The Purdue box score looks like Ohio Stat with Deshaun Thomas: Reggie Hearn went off scoring 26 points on 17 shots. Some other guys helped marginally.

OTHER OTHER THING It's probably not good for Purdue's defense that 24 of Northwestern's 26 baskets were assisted. Or Northwestern's offense, honestly.

THING THEY ARE LIKE King of the Dwarves.

 

10. Purdue (11-11)

LAST WEEK Destroyed by Indiana. Destroyed by Northwestern.

THING AJ Hammons played about as well as it is possible to in a 37-point loss on your home floor: 30 points on 14 shots and five blocks in 28 minutes. Rebounding may have been an issue. He also played about as well as you can in a 15-point loss to Northwestern: 19 points on 19 shots, okay, but 7 OREB and 6 DREB plus three assists to two turnovers.

Hype about Hammons being the All Big Ten center next year: buying.

OTHER THING I know that hitting 9 of 19 twos doesn't seem that impressive but consider it in context: Purdue shot 33% from two against Northwestern. No one other than Hammons even approached 50%, and even though Purdue rebounded half its misses and had just eight turnovers they could only get to 1 PPP.

OTHER OTHER THING Purdue players other than AJ Hammons are bad at basketball.

RONNIE JOHNSON THREE POINTER WATCH One of two against Indiana brings him up to 16%.

THING THEY ARE LIKE Ohio State if Deshaun Thomas was a center and Aaron Craft was a small dog named Wuffles.

Vetenari's hand… Indiana? This is getting strained.

 

11. Nebraska (11-12)

LAST WEEK Blown out by Minnesota. Kept it interesting against Ohio State.

THING Ray Gallegos is the Annoying Ole Miss Guy of the Big Ten, except he's not a polarizing GIF machine with emotional problems. He put up 30 on Minnesota, taking just 17 shots to get there.  He then put up 11 on Ohio State on 14 shots.

He's taken double-digit three pointers in five games this year, has not launched fewer than four, and is averaging over eight attempts a game. He's hitting 31%.

THING THEY ARE LIKE what if Ole Miss played in the Big Ten

12. Penn State (8-12)

LAST WEEK Fairly competitive at Iowa, and was mercifully given the weekend off.

THING Penn State has a guy shooting 18% from three and a guy shooting 14 % from three who collectively have 80 attempts.

OTHER THING they're 340th at giving up free throws

OTHER OTHER THING they're pretty good at rebounding though!

THING THEY ARE LIKE a really depressing basketball team

Tourney locks sans Illinois-2011-style implosion

projected seeds included

#1 Indiana, #2 MICHIGAN, #3 Michigan State, #4 Ohio State, #6 Minnesota

Probably In

#7 Wisconsin

Bubble

#13 Illinois

Northwestern Memorial wrong side of the bubble award

Iowa

Rutgers Memorial what's a bubble award

Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, Purdue

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

was yesterday. Pitt beat Seton Hall by 10.

Tuesday

Purdue at Penn State, 7PM, BTN
Florida at Arkansas, 7PM, ESPN
K-State at Texas Tech, 8PM, ESPN3
Ohio State at MICHIGAN, 9PM, ESPN

Wednesday

Minnesota at Michigan State, 7PM, BTN
Iowa at Wisconsin, 9PM, BTN

Thursday

Indiana at Illinois, 7PM, ESPN
NC State at Duke, 9PM, ESPN3 (wow, lame)

Friday

nyet

Saturday

MICHIGAN at Wisconsin, noon, ESPN
Arkansas at Vanderbilt, 1:30, ESPN3
Kansas at Oklahoma, 4PM, ESPN
Northwestern at Iowa, 4:36(?) PM, BTN
Pitt at Cincinnati, 6PM, ESPN
Iowa State at K-State, 6PM, ESPN2
Michigan State at Purdue, 7PM, BTN
Penn State at Nebraska, 9PM, ESPNU

Sunday

Indiana at Ohio State, 1PM, CBS
NC State at Clemson, 1PM, ESPN3
Illinois at Minnesota, 6PM, BTN
Duke at Boston College, 6PM, ESPNU