basketball opponent watch

[Sponsor Note (via Seth): You guys remember Larry Axelband, my IU fan friend who used to sponsor stuff? Well he’s helping to start a new daily fantasy sports and e-sports app for player props called ThriveFantasy, and offered to sponsor an MLB Opening Day freeroll for MGoBlog readers who want to try it. They’re also willing to match up to $50 of your first deposit if you choose to make one.

Of course, this came with a condition: Larry said he wants to read a new Opponent Watch. So this being the end of the basketball line for 14/14 Big Ten teams, I’ve drafted BiSB into a serious and thoroughly informative overview of the misery beyond our borders.

But first you should go draft! Or more specifically, choose 10 out of the 20 available prop bets (plus two in case of emergency props).

Take the link, hit “Play Now” and jump in the $1,000 Freeroll. You have until 1:05 PM ET tomorrow (4/1) to get in, with a 100% deposit bonus up to $50 plus free entry in the $10k MLB Opening Day contest. We’ll also track anyone who entered from MGoBlog so we can see how you did against me. Download ThriveFantasy on your App Store or Play Store, or visit www.thrivefantasy.com. Sign up, PropUp, and Eat ‘Em Up!]

-----------------------------

/a door swings open. The author cautiously pokes his head around the corner. Many wise, serious people are in the room. They are somberly discussing important matters of state. Many large notepads and VHS tapes are being placed into boxes. A pot of coffee percolates on a small table. Everyone looks up.

“Hi guys.”

/the assembled brain trust seems confused, but only slightly annoyed. They return to their packing.

“Y’all want to hear a joke?”

/much scowling. A tomato is hurled from the back of the room.

About Last Night

Not yet.

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Texas Southern (17-9, 10-3 SWAC)

What Happened: ‘Twas a stupid game. Hunter Dickinson got a Sixth Grader Playing With The Third Graders whistle. Michael Weathers shorts were too short.

Like every #1-#16 game other than that one #1-#16 game, it will be forgotten. But let the record show that there were points in the second half of this game where Michigan fans were nervous. Because we are always nervous.

LOOK, THINGS GOT TIGHT, OKAY???

LSU (19-10, 11-6 SEC)

What Happened: Will Wade, master of five-dimensional chess, came up with a brilliant game plan: tall springy man get buckets.

And for the first five minutes, this was effective. But eventually Michigan’s stubborn insistence on doin’ stuff won out.

Florida State (18-7, 11-4 ACC)

What Happened: Is “Trogdor’d” a verb? Because Michigan Trogdor’d Florida State. Michigan jumped out to a 19-8 lead, which never got tighter than 5 the rest of the way.

That was the end of Michigan’s tournament run, after the rest was cancelled. Because it was haunted.

[After THE JUMP: Big Ten Tournament teams versus the cast of Super Troopers.]

----------------------------------

Seedwatch

LIKE MAKE YOUR FREE THROWSSSSS

Michigan may have gone 1-1 last week, but it was a good 1-1 compared to results for various other teams like Miami (losers at home to KP#84 Georgia Tech), New Mexico (went down to Air Force), Kansas (annihilated by Baylor), and Florida (at Kentucky is the most understandable loss of this bunch, but it is still a loss). As a result, they have moved up a bit. Crashing The Dance still has them a three; the Bracket Matrix has them as the last #2, in an indistinguishable heap with Michigan State and Miami for two of the three final twos.

Michigan probably cannot salvage a one seed after the Indiana collapse. Even if Michigan ran off four wins in four days to win the BTT they would have a hard time passing the current anointed four of Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, and Louisville. Duke and Indiana are pretty much out of the question; Gonzaga is extremely unlikely to lose; Louisville's run off seven straight wins after the wacky 5OT game against Notre Dame and was two games better in the BE than Michigan was in the Big Ten. Maybe if the league hadn't consigned the Big Ten championship game to a novelty that can flip seeds within the conference but do little else because it's so late, but… uh… they did.

The conference tournaments will decide whether Michigan's a 2 or 3, it looks like. The best result possible is a strong 2 that avoids Duke. I guess it is possible Michigan would fall to a 4 if they were to gack it up against Penn State again; barring that a 1-1 performance in Chicago will at least lock up a 3.

How much does this matter? Projected 6s according to the Bracket Matrix: UNLV, Butler, UCLA, VCU. Projected 7s: Colorado State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Memphis. Not much.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville

Nonconference Watch

i changed the pictures. run, BJ, run!

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Their season is over at 6-26 after being the third-worst defensive team in the country. Binghamton: January 19th. Season over at 3-27. Fourth-worst offensive team in the land.

Central won a couple games late but finished 4-12 in the MAC and went out in the first round of their conference tourney; done at 11-20. Bradley fulfilled its destiny to be .500 at something by losing their last three games to finish 16-16. Cleveland State is also done after getting blown out by Loyola Chicago and Illinois Chicago—be nice, Chicago—at 14-18.

Still alive: Eastern Michigan, which had a rematch against Northern Illinois in the MAC tourney opener that they won 45-44. They play Miami (not that Miami) tomorrow. Western won their division and plays the winner of that game for the right to play OHIO in the semi.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (24-7)

@ DePaul: W 81-66.

DePaul never had a chance, because they are DePaul. They finish the regular season Kenpom's #6 team and will be a team highlighted in every tempo-free-aware bracket preview because they'll have one of the biggest gaps between Kenpom projected ability and seed in the field. I'm with the skeptical committee: Pitt built their KP profile against nobody in the nonconference—other than Michigan their only KP100 opponents were #99 Lehigh and #75 Detroit—and anyone who can keep them from destroying the offensive boards will put their offense in considerable difficulty.

Pitt enters the last Big East tournament the four-seed. They've acquired the last double bye and will take on either Syracuse or someone real bad at basketball on Thursday during Michigan's game against Penn State.

SEEDWATCH: Up one to a five on BM; they're well ahead of the top 6, UNLV.  CTD has them a seven still. They're actually below Minnesota(!) over there.

Kansas State (25-6)

TCU: W 79-68. @ Okie State: L 76-70

Elsewhere in painful ways to blow a share of a conference title, K-State took on Okie State with a shot at going 15-3 in the Big 12 and tying Kansas. They led by four with five minutes left, whereupon OSU went on an 8-0 run before free throw time. Sad pandas. Let's be sad pandas together, eating bamboo and watching the Lifetime Movie Network.

K-State saw the Cowboys put up 63% from two, which was enough despite having a major possession advantage.

SEEDWATCH: Drops to a 4 on BM; a five on CTD.

North Carolina State (22-9)

Wake Forest: W 81-66. @ Florida State: L 71-67

You might have this image in your head of Florida State as a typical Leonard Hamilton outfit that grinds all up on you like a guy wearing Axe at the club and makes life extremely difficult for everyone. This would not be correct. They are 10th in the ACC in defense, yielding almost 38% of defensive rebounds to the opponent amongst other deficiencies. They are barely above .500 and lost to Mercer, South Alabama, and Auburn earlier this year.

NC State losing to them is not understandable except insofar as NC State is not actually all that good at basketball. All the stats are basically even; NC State was undone again by M-versus-Indiana level defensive rebounding (lost 55% of DREBs to FSU) and allowing 56% on twos.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: 11 minutes but not active against FSU, though he did have a block(!). 12 minutes against Wake.

SEEDWATCH: Still an 8 on BM; CTD now agrees. As mentioned, this team is probably the least fun potential matchup amongst all the 8-9 seeds for a one. If they, like, are trying they're good. I would hate Mark Gotfried if I was an NC State fan though.

Arkansas (19-12)

@ Missouri: L 93-63. Texas A&M: W 73-62.

Arkansas's massive home-road disparity ended their faint bubble hopes before their game against Missouri even got started. 9-9 in this SEC with one decent nonconference win against Oklahokma (that at home) isn't going to get it done.

But seriously though, I would like you to find a team with a crazier home/road split in conference play than the Razorbacks:

• HOME: 9-0, double digit wins over Florida and Kentucky. Beat Missouri.
• AWAY: 1-8, lone win against horrible Auburn. Annihilated by mediocre to terrible teams like A&M (69-51), South Carolina (75-54), and Vandy (67-49).

At home, Arkansas can play with anyone—beat anyone. On the road, they lose to SEC Penn State by 21. The Razorbacks get Vandy again to start the SEC tourney. Kenpom labels the location "semi-away." Semi-hide the semi-children, Arkansas is going to get semi-blown out.

SEEDWATCH: Thanks for playing. Enjoy your NIT home games.

West Virginia (13-18)

@ Oklahoma: L 83-70. Iowa State: L 83-74

Still not good at basketball.

SEEDWATCH: lollercoaster

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Yesterday; no games.

Tuesday

nyet

Wednesday

nyet

Thursday

Pitt versus Probably Syracuse, 2PM, ESPN
MICHIGAN versus Penn State, 2:30 PM, BTN
K-State versus Texas/TCU, 6PM, not televised
NC State versus Virginia Tech, 2:30PM, ESPNU

Friday

Maybe Pitt versus Probably Georgetown, 7PM, ESPN
Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Wisconsin, 1:30 PM, ESPN
Probably K-State vs Okie State/Baylor, 8:30PM, ESPNU
Probably NC State vs Virginia, 2:30PM, ESPN2

Saturday

Probably Not Pitt versus Probably Louisville Or Marquette, 8:30PM, ESPN
Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Probably Indiana, 12:40 PM, CBS
Maybe K-State versus Probably Kansas, 5PM, ESPN
Possibly NC State versus Probably Miami, 1PM, ESPN

Sunday

Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Probably OSU or MSU, 2:30PM, CBS
Probably Not NC State versus Probably Duke, 1PM, ESPN

Seedwatch

The moral of last week: don't lose to Penn State, you guys. Providing the Nittany Lions their only win of the conference season was sufficient to knock Michigan out of one-seed contention for now. Despite the Michigan State win, Michigan has fallen into a mass of teams duking it out for spots on the 2 and 3 lines on the Bracket Matrix, a hair behind Louisville and Florida for the final twos. This isn't a lag effect; brackets updated today are evenly split, with guy-whose-job-this-is Jerry Palm declaring Michigan a 3.

Crashing the Dance also has Michigan in the 3 range, though they're significantly closer to the last #1 seed than dropping to a 4. Kansas and Gonzaga are the main beneficiaries, with Miami hanging on the cusp of a one after a narrow defeat at Cameron. I still think Gonzaga's schedule should disqualify them from a one seed but since Michigan's not in line to replace them, whatever man.

Could Michigan get back in the conversation by winning their last two? It's not out of the question. Indiana is by far the #1 team in all these ranking systems and a win over them would at least vault them up to a solid 2. But they'd have to jump a half-dozen teams at this point, one of whom is the extremely-unlikely-to-lose Gonzaga. Getting back on the top line is not entirely out of the question, but it requires a closing streak that is, to put it kindly, unlikely.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Miami

Nonconference Watch

i changed the pictures. run, BJ, run!

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Binghamton: January 19th. Central Michigan: won! Against Northern Illinois, but still. IUPUI is done with the regular season and has a Saturday matchup with SDSU that will probably end them. Kenpom gives Binghamton a 1% chance of advancing past Stony Brook in the America East tourney, also on Saturday.

Cleveland State lost their final game and enters conference tourney play at 5-11; their season probably ends tonight. Bradley remains a 500-ish MVC team. Eastern Michigan beat Western in a 50-49 OT Wisconsin special. Both teams have a couple of games before their conference tourney kicks off.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (23-7)

USF: W 64-44. Villanova: W 73-64 (OT)

Crushing rebounding and defense against one of the worst teams in the Big East to start their week, then a home escape against 'Nova in which the stats are close to identical save a burst of OT scoring from the Panthers. With just DePaul left, Pitt is likely to enter the Big East tournament as the #4 seed.

The Panthers are going to be a trendy upset pick in the second round what with their sterling Kenpom numbers, but I've watched them enough to be wary of them against any team that can match their size and rebounding. If Pitt isn't crushing the glass it's hard to see them taking out a 2 or 3 seed.

SEEDWATCH: A strong six on Bracket Matrix; a seven on Crashing The Dance.

Kansas State (24-5)

@ Baylor: W 64-61

Scraped by the Bears thanks to excellent two-point D (38%) and a slight TO advantage in a game with lots of offensive rebounds and a swingy win graph:

That's some high leverage right there. May all tourney games not involving Michigan look like that.

K-State has a gimmie against Texas Tech tomorrow and then a season-ender against high-flying Okie State that could spring them to the three line if they perform reasonably in the Big 12 tourney. That one's on the road.

SEEDWATCH: Narrowly a 3 on Bracket Matrix; four on CTD. Jerry Palm says 4.

North Carolina State (21-8)

Boston College: W 82-64. @ Georgia Tech: W 70-57

Given NC State's defensive struggles this year two solid wins over not-great teams is actually a positive step. This is a team that lost to Maryland and Wake Forest, and BC and GT are hovering around 100 in the Kenpom rankings.

BC actually scored just over a PPP in their matchup but could not compete with an NC State team hitting 62% inside the arc and rebounding half their misses. GT shot horribly and turned it over 15 times; NC State got easy distance despite going 1/11 from three thanks to excellent twos and a lot of FTs.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: 16 minutes against BC, four points on three shots, 5 to 1 A:TO. 11 minutes, 8 points on five shot equivalents, 2 A, 0 TO.

SEEDWATCH: 7 on Crashing The Dance, 8 on Bracket Matrix. Drawing these guys in the second round as a 1 or 2 seed would be awful.

Arkansas (18-11)

@ LSU: L 65-60. Kentucky: W 73-60.

Arkansas keeps giving themselves hope at home—wins over UK and Florida—and then blowing it on the road—losses to LSU and Vandy. Their vague flutter towards a spot on the bubble comes down to winning at Mizzou and at home against A&M, plus a run in the SEC tourney.

Likely? No. But not impossible. Crashing the Dance has moved them up from the fringe bubble to Next Four Out territory, with Kentucky and Tennessee the last at large bids in and two more SEC teams (Ole Miss and Alabama) just in front of them. Lunardi also has them in Next Four Out. They've got a 10-20% shot at a bid.

SEEDWATCH: CTD next four out; no one has them in on the Matrix. 

West Virginia (13-16)

Baylor: L 65-62. @ Kansas: L 91-65

At least we won this coaching switch.

SEEDWATCH: exploding seeds that kill spiders like in Zelda or something

Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding
3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Yesterday; no games.

Tuesday

Illinois at Iowa, 7:06 PM, BTN
Ohio State at Indiana, 9PM, ESPN
Arkansas at Missouri, 7PM, ESPN

Wednesday

MICHIGAN at Purdue, 7PM, BTN
Minnesota at Nebraska, 9PM, BTN
Wake Forest at NC State, 9PM, ESPN3

Thursday

Penn State at Northwestern, 7PM, ESPNU
Wisconsin at Michigan State, 9PM, ESPN (rooting interest: meteor)

Friday

nyet

Saturday

Minnesota at Purdue, 12PM, BTN
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 1:30, no tv(?!?)
Texas A&M at Arkansas , 2PM, ESPNU
Nebraska at Iowa, 2:21 PM, BTN
NC State at Florida State, 9PM, ESPN2

Sunday

Wisconsin at Penn State, 12PM, BTN
Illinois at Ohio State, 12:30, ESPN
Indiana at MICHIGAN, 4PM, CBS
Northwestern at Michigan State, 6PM, BTN