basketball mailbag

Who's the Clutch Bucket-Getter?

Who's the crunch time bucket-getter? Seems that was one of the few things lacking this year. Or does everything still run through HD in the post? #mgomailbag

— Tom Peterson (@wolverinetom) May 5, 2021

This one feels a lot easier now that Michigan picked up DeVante' Jones. Not only did Jones have to function as Coastal Carolina's clutch playmaker for years, he did so while playing in two different roles — first as the primary ballhandler, then playing more of an off-ball role last season.

Jones should be headed back to more of a true point guard role; his knack for scoring difficult buckets is still going to carry over. He's an excellent finisher around the rim, and while the opposition will be tougher at Michigan, he'll also have much more space to operate. He was a remarkably effective scorer inside the arc, especially when accounting for his ability to draw fouls and hit free throws at high rates, despite often driving into multiple defenders:

That floater, in particular, is a great shot to have in the arsenal for late-clock and late-game situations, and Jones has one of the best in the country. According to Synergy, he shot 25/51 on runners in 2020-21, putting him in the 80th percentile in efficiency even though he attempted them at a huge volume—only 21 players in the country took more and just four of them surpassed Jones' marksmanship.

In 2019-20, when Jones was used as a point guard, he performed very well as a scorer in both pick-and-roll and isolation situations. His most recent season has tricked some people into doubting his ability to run the point at the Big Ten level; I don't have any concerns there after watching his older games and digging into the numbers.

Jones managed to score in the 78th percentile on pick-and-rolls even though his teammates were lacking. They dragged down his overall pick-and-roll efficiency to the 63rd percentile because they finished average to bad on passes to spot-up shooters (57th percentile), the roll man (19th), and cutters (19th). Despite the poor passing numbers, I really like his vision:

Jones split the ballscreen defense with enticing frequency in the film I watched of him. He can break down the defense when he gets into the lane and they have to respect his touch around the rim.

This is where Hunter Dickinson (and Moussa Diabate and Caleb Houstan and Eli Brooks and... you get it) come back into the picture. Juwan Howard seems likely to put the ball in Jones' hands when it's time for a tough bucket; that doesn't mean Jones is going to have to make all the tough buckets. Michigan has three viable roll threats in Dickinson, Diabate, and Brandon Johns; they have some pick-and-pop potential with the big men and Houstan; they have dangerous spot-up shooters in Houstan and Brooks (and even Johns, when willing). Howard's system can create plenty of buckets, too.

Giving the ball to Jones is a good starting point. Defenses will be in a bind trying to dictate where it goes from there.

[Hit THE JUMP for some roster management questions and shooter emergence possibilities.]

I started to do a full mailbag and ended up going long on what's become the pressing question of the offseason since a certain video hit the interwebs:

Hey Ace,

That video of Hunter draining threes has been going around and I’ve played enough basketball to know the difference between a gym shoot around and a live game with a man in your face. Is there any reason (analytical or otherwise) to think Dickinson can add a three point shot to his game? He’s a decent FT shooter, but I’m not familiar enough with his high school career to know if this is a realistic hope or a fever dream. 

I mean, if he adds a deep threat to his game, that blows the ceiling off this offense... right?

Peter

The video in question, if you somehow haven't seen it yet:

Yeah it’s over for the rest of the country pic.twitter.com/FSwpOPxlGN

— Twill is a B1G Champ (@TwillSZN) April 20, 2021

Hunter Dickinson was highly ranked and reputed to have good touch out of high school, so it wasn't a huge surprise that he made 74% of his 111 free throw attempts as a freshman. It's still worth mentioning how rare it is for a big man to accomplish that: according to Bart Torvik's database, which dates back to 2008, he's one of only 18 freshmen listed at 6'11+ from high-major conferences to hit 70% or better from the line.

That list is packed with NBA players: DeAndre Ayton, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaren Jackson Jr., Myles Turner, Lauri Markkanen, Cody Zeller, Greg Monroe, Jaxson Hayes, Jontay Porter, and Donté Greene among them. Towns, Jackson, Turner, Markkanen, and Green all became legit stretch bigs in the league.

[Hit THE JUMP for a deeper dive into that list, some recent Big Ten stretch big breakouts, and more.]

I'm off for the next week to recharge, so I figured before I go a combined MBB/WBB mailbag was in order, starting with a MBB/WBB combo question.

The Ultimate Basketball School?

Which school is poised for the best combined success in men's and women's basketball over the next decade? Is Michigan better positioned than Baylor or UCONN? #mgomailbag

— Matthew Duprey, PharmD, PhD (@PharmDuprey) April 8, 2021

Unless Kim Mulkey's behavior catches up to her on the recruiting trail, which hasn't happened despite her history of poorly worded (at best) statements and fraught relationship with some former players, it's hard to say any program is better positioned than Baylor. The men's team just won a national championship after making it at least as far as the Sweet Sixteen five times since 2010. The women's team has made 12 straight Sweet Sixteens and captured national titles in 2005, 2012, and 2019.

After relying almost entirely on the transfer portal to assemble this year's champs, Scott Drew recruited at a top-ten level for the 2021 class headlined by five-star wing Kendall Brown and already has a top-50 commit for 2022. It's hard to imagine that slows down now that he has a ring to show off.

UConn, meanwhile, is poised for continued dominance on the women's side. They have the best player in the country, Paige Bueckers, heading into her sophomore season, and she'll be joined by another #1 overall recruit in DC PG Azzi Fudd along with (depending on where you look) either two or three more 2021 five-star signees. Of any individual program mentioned in this section, UConn WBB has the best chance of winning a national championship in the next three years—it'd be somewhere between a surprise and a shock if they didn't get at least one.

On the men's side, though, the Huskies have the weakest program in this section. Since their unexpected national title as a seven-seed in 2014, they've made two tourneys (as a 7- and 9-seed) and haven't made it out of the opening weekend. Dan Hurley's recruiting has picked up steam but his classes are topping out with fringe top-50 prospects instead of five-stars. The last 247 composite five-star to sign with UConn was Jalen Adams in 2015 and he didn't live up to the billing, going undrafted and ending up in the G-League.

Michigan should slot in between those two schools in terms of combined success. Here's my stab at ranking these programs by most likely to win at least one national championship in the next ten years:

1. UConn WBB
2. Baylor WBB
(gap)
3. Michigan MBB
4. Baylor MBB
(gap)
5. Michigan WBB
6. UConn MBB

[Hit THE JUMP for how the WBB team can move up those rankings, a look at their recruiting, how fast PGs can pick up Juwan Howard's system, and more.]