avert your eyes
Via Friend of the Blog Craig Ross, offensive and defensive red zone efficiency in last year's Big Ten:
[Key:
- Opp = number of redzone opportunities.
- FGM = made field goals.
- Poss Pts = possible points
- RZEff = Pts / Poss Pots
- Trad = The traditional, stupid way of calculating red zone efficiency: (TD + FGM) / Opp.
]
Offense
| Team | Opp | TDs | %TDs | FGM | Pts | Poss Pts | RZEff | Trad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 32 | 24 | 75% | 6 | 186 | 224 | 83% | 94% |
| PSU | 25 | 17 | 68% | 7 | 140 | 175 | 80% | 96% |
| Purdue | 22 | 15 | 68% | 4 | 117 | 154 | 76% | 86% |
| Minnesota | 28 | 18 | 64% | 3 | 135 | 196 | 69% | 75% |
| Illinois | 22 | 13 | 59% | 3 | 100 | 154 | 65% | 73% |
| Northwestern | 26 | 13 | 50% | 9 | 118 | 182 | 65% | 85% |
| OSU | 23 | 13 | 57% | 4 | 103 | 161 | 64% | 74% |
| Iowa | 20 | 9 | 45% | 8 | 87 | 140 | 62% | 85% |
| MSU | 24 | 10 | 42% | 11 | 103 | 168 | 61% | 88% |
| Indiana | 30 | 15 | 50% | 7 | 126 | 210 | 60% | 73% |
| Michigan | 30 | 12 | 40% | 6 | 102 | 210 | 49% | 60% |
Note how dumb the traditional measures of redzone efficiency can be: Michigan State finished ninth in the league in points gained as a percentage of the maximum and third by traditional measures.
It doesn't matter which metric you use, though: Michigan is thunderously last in this category. That's not a huge surprise when you're as turnover-plagued as Michigan was. Add on the First And Goal Of Doom against Illinois and there you go.
Defense
| Team | Opp | TDs | %TDs | FGM | Pts | Poss Pts | RZEff | Trad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 18 | 9 | 50% | 3 | 72 | 126 | 57% | 67% |
| PSU | 19 | 9 | 47% | 5 | 78 | 133 | 59% | 74% |
| Wisconsin | 21 | 10 | 48% | 6 | 88 | 147 | 60% | 76% |
| Iowa | 19 | 9 | 47% | 6 | 81 | 133 | 61% | 79% |
| Illinois | 33 | 18 | 55% | 7 | 147 | 231 | 64% | 76% |
| Northwestern | 26 | 14 | 54% | 6 | 116 | 182 | 64% | 77% |
| Purdue | 34 | 18 | 53% | 9 | 153 | 238 | 64% | 79% |
| Indiana | 32 | 20 | 63% | 4 | 152 | 224 | 68% | 75% |
| Minnesota | 24 | 16 | 67% | 5 | 127 | 168 | 76% | 88% |
| Michigan | 31 | 19 | 61% | 11 | 166 | 217 | 76% | 97% |
| MSU | 25 | 17 | 68% | 6 | 137 | 175 | 78% | 92% |
No surprises here. Defensive red zone efficiency seems much better correlated with overall performance than the offensive variety, Illinis respectability nonwithstanding. Michigan isn't last by a mile this time, but they're not far off the bottom. No fancy explanations needed here: the defense sucked anywhere on the field last year.
Combined Totals
Just start screaming now. It will save time. PPT is "points per trip," and it hates you:
| Team | OREff | DRZEff | Delta | PPT Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 83% | 60% | 23.2 | 1.6 |
| PSU | 80% | 59% | 21.4 | 1.5 |
| Purdue | 76% | 64% | 11.7 | 0.8 |
| OSU | 64% | 57% | 6.8 | 0.5 |
| Illinois | 65% | 64% | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Iowa | 62% | 61% | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Northwestern | 65% | 64% | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Minnesota | 69% | 76% | -6.7 | -0.5 |
| Indiana | 60% | 68% | -7.9 | -0.6 |
| MSU | 61% | 78% | -17.0 | -1.2 |
| Michigan | 49% | 76% | -27.9 | -2.0 |
On average, Michigan gave up 2 more points per redzone trip than they got. Over the course of the season this cost them 122(!!!) points relative to the opposition.
I don't have any idea how much year-to-year correlation there is in this stat, but if I had to guess I'd say there was a moderate amount. It's not as loopy as turnover margin, certainly—Wisconsin's always going to be good inside the five—but I bet crazy numbers like Michigan's have a tendency to head for average the next year. Let's hope so, anyway.
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