attrition watch

With spring practice just about over and Michigan under 85 it's time to 1) check in with how the Hoke-Harbaugh transition is affecting the roster and 2) finally, thankfully drop that damn 2010 class from these posts. We will officially never talk about Demar Dorsey again. We're also moving past 2011 since none of those guys are on the roster any more. If you need to remind yourself of the final verdict on either of those recruiting classes, the December version of this post should suffice. In brief: "argh dammit" and "bleah," respectively.

Quality starters are bold, contributors italics. Walkons denoted with #.

2012

25 players. Only fifth year seniors left. Brady Hoke class #1.

Devin Funchess, Willie Henry, Kyle Kalis

Enrolled (9): Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Matt Godin, Chris Wormley, Jeremy Clark, Ryan Glasgow(#)

Played out eligibility (7): Jarrod Wilson, Sione Houma, AJ Williams, Mario Ojemudia, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross.

Early NFL draft entry (2): Devin Funchess, Willie Henry

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer

Transferred for PT (1): Ondre Pipkins

Academics/Not Being Nice (1): Dennis Norfleet.

Not offered fifth year (4): Terry Richardson, Allen Gant, Tom Strobel, Blake Bars.

Since December this class has shed four redshirt juniors who didn't see the field much, if at all, and lost Willie Henry to the NFL draft. That's not much of an impact on the overall results from Brady Hoke's first full class, which was downright terrific. If you add in walk-on Ryan Glasgow, exactly half this class panned out into multi-year starting roles, with five more guys serious contributors. If Michigan had put redshirts on guys like Ojemudia and Houma, who were little-used as freshmen, it would look even better.

The combination of player retention, strikes on sleepers (Chesson, Clark, Glasgow, and Henry were all generic-three-star-or-worse and are likely to go in the NFL draft) and sheer quantity makes this the best recruiting class in the past decade. And that's despite one of the five-stars in the class, Pipkins, failing to make an impact.

2013

27 men. Seniors and redshirt juniors. Brady Hoke class #2.

Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Logan Tuley-Tillman

Enrolled (17): Jourdan Lewis, Patrick Kugler, Dymonte Thomas, Shane Morris, David Dawson, Henry Poggi, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jake Butt, De'Veon Smith, Ben Gedeon, Maurice Hurst, Delano Hill, Wyatt Shallman, Channing Stribling, Khalid Hill, Scott Sypniewski.

Injury (3): Chris Fox, Jaron Dukes, Reon Dawson.

Transferred for PT (5): Dan Samuelson, Kyle Bosch, Derrick Green, Ross Taylor-Douglas, Damario Jones.

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Logan Tuley-Tillman, Csont'e York

Since December this class has shed five guys. Dukes and Dawson took medical hardships and stayed in school; Green, Taylor-Douglas, and Jones all graduated and will land elsewhere as grad transfers despite having only been in school for three years. (Green and Taylor-Douglas did both enroll early.)

With three major exceptions this is another excellent class, featuring at least two high NFL draft picks and probably a few more. The problems:

• Shane Morris was a major risk after missing his senior season with mono, especially since there was no QB in the previous class.
• The WR class was mostly a scramble situation after LaQuon Treadwell opted for the money at Ole Miss. All three players have already left without making an impact.
• The offensive line class was gutted, largely by things outside of the program's control. Chris Fox's knee was never right after a high school injury; Bosch had personal issues; Tuley-Tillman got charged with a felony; Dan Samuelson couldn't hack it at this level. Only the latter was at all on talent evaluation or development.

Harbaugh papered over the first problem by bringing in Rudock and O'Korn; the other two positions look good… and dangerously thin.

2014

16 men.

Jabrill Peppers, Ian Bunting, Brady Pallante

Enrolled (15): Jabrill Peppers, Drake Harris, Bryan Mone, Mason Cole, Lawrence Marshall, Chase Winovich, Freddy Canteen, Ian Bunting, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Wilton Speight, Maurice Ways, Noah Furbush, Brandon Watson, Jared Wangler, Brady Pallante.

Transferred for PT(1): Michael Ferns.

Freddy Canteen may be on the verge of exiting, per Harbaugh.

Not much change for these guys yet.  Early yet for many of them to make an impact, I did italicize a few kids who are likely to play roles this year. Ask again after this year.

The small size of the class is not hugely damaging since the two before had 52 kids in them and didn't suffer much attrition until right about now, but when you have such a small class you'd like it to be filled with more top-end guys. That wasn't the case, as everyone after Bunting on the list above is more or less a sleeper type. Seven shots in the dark is more or less expected when you take 25+; in a class of 16 that's the first hint that Hoke's recruiting was falling apart.

2015

14 men. The Hoke/Harbaugh transition class. Harbaugh recruits denoted with *.

Zach Gentry, Tyrone Wheatley Jr, Keith Washington

Enrolled (13): Zach Gentry*, Tyree Kinnel, Grant Newsome, Alex Malzone, Ty Wheatley Jr*, Shelton Johnson*, Karan Higdon*, Reuben Jones*, Grant Perry*, Keith Washington*, Jon Runyan Jr,, Nolan Ulizio*, Andrew David.

Academics/Not Being Nice(1): Brian Cole.

This is a transition class and transition classes are rarely good. By this point Hoke's recruiting had truly imploded as the product on the field became too unwatchable to ignore. Harbaugh inherited just six kids who would end up signing LOIs, one of them a legacy and one a kicker.

Cole, the only top 100 recruit in the class, went up in smoke for violations of team rules before he could enter his second year. Michigan does appear to have a few strikes already in Newsome, Wheatley, and Perry, but the sheer lack of dudes in it and the 2014 class—just 30 players between the two—is worrisome for the next couple years.

It's worth noting that of all the players who left the team after the 2015 season, Cole is the only one who didn't take a medical hardship or get a degree. Anyone concerned about going too Saban should keep that in mind. When at all possible Michigan has fulfilled their primary duty to the departures.

2016

29 men. Harbaugh class #1.

Enrolled (or about to do so): Rashan Gary, Ben Bredeson, Brandon Peters, David Long, Devin Asiasi, Michael Onwenu, Kareem Walker, Dylan Crawford, Lavert Hill, Ahmir Mitchell, Brad Hawkins, Ron Johnson, Carlo Kemp, Devin Bush Jr, Chris Evans, Nick Eubanks, Khaleke Hudson, Eddie McDoom, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Nate Johnson, Quinn Nordin, Josh Uche, Stephen Spanellis, Kingston Davis, Josh Metellus, Sean McKeon, Michael Dwumfour, Devin Gil.

Obviously only a few of these guys are even on campus yet and there is little to say about them as a result. LB Dytarious Johnson remains in academic limbo.

I haven't done one of these in over a year. If you want a last glimpse at the 2009 class, hit up the 2014 preseason version of this post. You would be surprised that you might—that was a good class. Italics below indicate a contributor. Bold is for a player who is a multi-year starter. Sometimes the latter is a projection for guys with eligibility remaining. Yellow stars are for draftees, purple moons for All Big Ten players, and silver goats for All-Americans.

2010

One last look at the class of doom.

Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal

Did Not Take Fifth Year(2): Richard Ash, Jordan Paskorz

Played Out Eligibility(7): Jeremy Jackson, Drew Dileo, Jibreel Black, Courtney Avery, Devin Gardner, Jake Ryan, Will Hagerup

Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal

Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones

Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace

Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins

Seven out of 26 kids played out their eligibility. One kid who left, Pitt safety Ray Vinopal, did anything after his departure. The kids who played out their eligibility saw one guy drafted. This was a bad class and Rich Rodriguez should feel bad.

2011

Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada

This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.

Played out eligibility(6): Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Delonte Hollowell, Desmond Morgan, Matt Wile(H).

Early NFL draft entry(1): Frank Clark(H)*.

Early Fancy Job entry(1): Jack Miller.

Transferred for PT (6): Tamani Carter(H), Thomas Rawls(H), Justice Hayes(H), Keith Heitzman(H), Russell Bellomy(H), Blake Countess.

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones

Injury (2): Antonio Poole(H), Chris Bryant.

Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.

Transitional classes are rarely any good and this one wasn't. Hoke's late pickups did include two current Seattle Seahawks, but since Thomas Rawls had to transfer to get on the field that rather takes the luster off. Fifth-year departures complicate our "transfer for playing time" category: Blake Countess was a two-year starter at Michigan and started at Auburn this year.

This is a 20-man class with seven major contributors, which isn't great. Given the cloud Rodriguez was recruiting under and the extraordinarily brief window Hoke was provided after The Process completed, it could have been a lot worse.

*[Clark of course got booted from the team after a domestic violence incident and could be filed under Not Being Nice. In terms of his ability to contribute to the team, early entry—which was coming either way—is more accurate.]

2012

25 players. Seniors and redshirt juniors, if they're still around. As of April 2014 this class had lost just one player, Kaleb Ringer.

Devin Funchess, Willie Henry, Kyle Kalis

Enrolled: Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Kyle Kalis, Blake Bars, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Willie Henry, Matt Godin, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley, Terry Richardson, Allen Gant, Jeremy Clark.

Played out eligibility: Jarrod Wilson, Sione Houma, AJ Williams, Mario Ojemudia, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross.

Early NFL draft entry(1): Devin Funchess

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.

Transferred for PT (1): Ondre Pipkins

Academics/Not Being Nice (1): Dennis Norfleet.

With Ryan Glasgow a bonus walk-on this class is the spine of what was, OSU excepted, one of the best defenses in the country. Only two guys got added to the attrition list, and it was clear that Ondre Pipkins was inclined to stay before clashing with Harbaugh about his health. Pipkins will have a year at Texas Tech to show what he can do.

This class also provided Michigan's starting wide receivers, three-fifths of its offensive line, a boring safety, and a couple of linebackers. Hoke's first full class is going to see 22 of 25 players have their careers end successfully. This is an excellent class that drove Michigan to 9-3 once the glaring hole in it—quarterback—was resolved.

2013

27 men.

Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Logan Tuley-Tillman

Enrolled: Jourdan Lewis, Derrick Green, Patrick Kugler, Dymonte Thomas, Shane Morris, David Dawson, Henry Poggi, Mike McCray, Taco Charlton, Jake Butt, De'Veon Smith, Ben Gedeon, Maurice Hurst, Delano Hill, Wyatt Shallman, Jaron Dukes, Ross Douglas, Channing Stribling, Khalid Hill, Da'Mario Jones, Reon Dawson, Scott Sypniewski.

Injury(1): Chris Fox.

Transferred for PT (2): Dan Samuelson, Kyle Bosch

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Logan Tuley-Tillman, Csont'e York

Just five guys have departed, and two of the linemen had things that were just fate: Fox blew his knee out in an un-repairable way, and Kyle Bosch was in a bad place.

This class is going to experience some additional attrition after the season, all of it for playing time reasons, but with Jake Butt, Jourdan Lewis, and Maurice Hill leading a dozen-plus contributors it is another quality class.

It is again notable for the hole at QB, where Michigan went with a mono-afflicted Shane Morris after forgoing one in 2012 and taking Russell Bellomy at the last minute in 2011. The failure of this OL class to break through is the other major disappointment. Of the six enrollees only two remain and neither started this year.

2014

16 men.

Jabrill Peppers, Ian Bunting, Brady Pallante

Enrolled: Jabrill Peppers, Drake Harris, Bryan Mone, Mason Cole, Lawrence Marshall, Chase Winovich, Freddy Canteen, Ian Bunting, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Wilton Speight, Maurice Ways, Noah Furbush, Brandon Watson, Jared Wangler, Brady Pallante.

Transferred for PT(1): Michael Ferns.

Ferns departed shortly after Hoke was fired, before Michigan could even hire Harbaugh. That looms rather large for next year. It's still early days for this class but it's looking rather sketchy, with just two guys making a major impact so far.

On the other hand those guys are Peppers and Cole.

Meta: Hokepoints is now alternating bi-weekly features. Jimmystats is the one where we play with Excel, H4 is the one where we play with Playmaker or get misty-eyed. Thank you readers who submitted name ideas.

Not all upperclassmen are good, but having upperclassmen is good. [Fuller]

I keep a few different databases on Michigan players for various uses, and Bosch's transfer initiated a two-day time sink into updating the big roster one. It now includes number of starts each guy since the 1993 class had in his career, along with the recruiting profile and career summary. Have at it, diarists:

Some stuff I generated with it:

The Holy Balls 2010 attrition chart:

Bigging it makes it clicker.

The retention rate isn't the number of players who stuck, it's the number of total eligible seasons the class would have produced if every freshman played four (and every junior transfer played two, etc.). If somebody ever says there was nothing good about the Hoke era, point at the 2012-2014 classes. I do expect the transition costs and other levies of time will reduce those triple towers eventually, but that is a very good start, especially the 2012 group who came in after 11-2 and got not that since.

The flipside of course is that 2010 class, which spent exactly half of its eligibility not on Michigan's roster. And that was followed by the 2011 "process" class, which more on that in a minute. I also tracked the reasons for losses:

[Jump for that a bunch more charts and tables you can use to wow your friends, like the average number of starts for a 5-star recruit]