[Ed-Seth: Hey look everybody, something that's not that thing. Jamiemac of Just Cover Blog and the MGoPodcast was dragged out of quasi-retirement for a weekly thing on lines, tips, and expectations, and Draft Kings’ offered to to sponsor it. How it works: we identify a Draft Kings fantasy game (could be NFL, CFB, CBB, etc.) to commune in, followed by Jamie’s discussions on odds of relevance to you. This week we're playing for… /raises pinky One MILLION dollars.]
THIS WEEK’S GAME: ONE MILLION DOLLARS!
Yeah it's NFL this week, because DK has $1 million out there for the winner. That's enough money to actually have a say in Michigan's athletic department. Or you could blow it on funny hats.
- $2,200,000 prize pool.
- First place wins $1,000,000
- $27 entry fee.
- Top 15,500 are paid.
- Starts on Sunday, October, 5th at 1:00 EST.
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots. 8 players and 1 defense.
- Roster Format: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Defense.
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
It'll be a big pool, which is why I (still Seth)'ve got home run threats all over my roster. Here's Jamie:
THIS WEEK’S CHALK
If you've been following my ups and downs over the years, you know I love taking road dogs the week after they've been upset as double digit favorites. This theory has led us to covers—and outright wins—in each of the last two weeks. We had Iowa +7 over Pitt in Week 4, a week after the Hawks blew a game to rival Iowa State and last week we were on Missouri plus the points over South Carolina. A week after inexplicably losing at home to Indiana, the Tigers went into South Carolina and nipped the Gamecocks 21-20. Aint college football, fun?
Good news? We have three options this week. The bad news? One of them is Michigan, catching 3.5 points at Rutgers. Alright, that might qualify as terrible news. I realized midway through the Minnesota second half that UM would be in this spot and immediately decided to cancel this system for a week. There's just no way I'm betting on this team.
[Jump for the Pitt Trick, and every M opponent looking good]
[Ed-Seth: You all know Jamie Mac, he of Just Cover Blog and the MGoPodcast, and expert on sports betting. I was at his tailgate last week for the Miami (NTM) game, and between Draft Kings’ offer to to sponsor it and Jamie’s somewhat impaired state at the moment, I was able to convince this legend to come out of writing retirement.
So here’s how it’s gonna work (for now): we’ll have a weekly spot where we identify a Draft Kings fantasy game (could be NFL, CFB, CBB, etc.) to commune in, followed by Jamie’s discussions on odds of relevance to you.]
THIS WEEK’S GAME: CFB $10K REDSHIRT [$1,000 TO 1ST]
I like Jake Butt [and HSR’s groovy image]
- $10,000 prize pool.
- $2 entry fee. Entry is free with your first deposit.
- $1,000 1st Place prize.
- Starts on Saturday, September, 20 at noon EDT
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots.
- Roster Format: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
THIS WEEK’S CHALK
Everyone has eliminated the Big Ten from playoff contention. I am not here to argue against that, although I am in the firm camp of letting the rest of this month and October play out before putting any serious thought into what the true pecking order should be. But keep hope alive Big Ten fans. You can still bet on some of your teams qualifying for the first ever college football final four. Here are the current odds on Big Ten teams making that postseason field.
|Odds of Michigan in the CoFoPuff this year are running about even with the likelihood that the world will apologize. [Upchurch]|
Ohio State: Yes, +400; No, -600
Michigan State: Yes, +500; No, -800
Wisconsin: Yes, +600; No, -1000
They actually have Michigan listed on this board, but there aren't any odds. Talk about a tease. What does it matter anyway. Michigan isn't making any Final Four this season. Well, at least not in football.....
GAMES OF THE YEAR UPDATED LINES
Everyone who knows me, knows I love to track the lines of the Games Of The Year that are released way back in something called June by various Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks. Let's take a minute to compare the lines for the remaining Big 10 games that were on that board. We've got three data points: opening lines from June, lines on the day the season started and lines as they stand today. It's time for a chart, with some quick thoughts afterwards.
[After the jump, updated lines and Jamie’s tips on who to draft around the league]
PREVIOUSLY ON DRAFTAGEDDON: Many defensive linemen went off the board early, and then there was a big run on tailbacks inexplicably kicked off by Venric Mark. Trash was talked about Shilique Calhoun, because that's how we do this business. Trash was not talked about MSU in general because obviously.
ROUND 5 - PICK 1: Trae Waynes, CB, MSU
O: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), RB Melvin Gordon (UW), WR Stefon Diggs (MD)
D: DT Carl Davis(IA), CB Trae Waynes (MSU)
BRIAN: To kick off the fifth, I'll grab the last member available from last year's lights-out MSU secondary: Trae Waynes. I trashed Calhoun, and I think justly, so let me explain how MSU is so good on defense: their secondary is impeccable. The safeties are super aggressive, often forced into man coverage as BISB mentioned. This means that the corners are on an island constantly. Waynes was opposite future first-rounder Darqueze Dennard and more than coped, with three INTs and very few derp moments. You have to be good to be in island man coverage all damn day and be part of the #2 secondary in the country when it came to YPA.
The NFL is also itching to get their hands on Waynes. Fox's Peter Schrager likes him better than Dennard and projects him 11th. Pete Prisco says he might be better and has him 26th. And why not? He's 6'1" and his fake 40 is so so fake at 4.3. Even if Ace was betting on a tailback dropping to him, NW LB versus MSU DB should be no contest.
ROUND 5 - PICK 2: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska
O: RB Ameer Abdullah(NEB), WR Devin Funchess (M), LT Brandon Scherff (Iowa)
D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), LB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW)
ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah
ACE: Dammit, Brian. Waynes was the other guy I was considering with my last pick—my decision came down to the respective depth at linebacker and cornerback—but you have a point here about Waynes' pure talent level. I might've over-thought that one.
Thankfully, Seth Millen either really under- or over-thought the Mark selection, so I still get to mock somebody and get one of the best backs in the country. Abdullah led the conference in rushing yards and averaged over six yards per carry last season even though his quarterback was either Taylor Martinez playing through turf toe so bad he failed an NFL physical eight months later, Tommy Armstrong Jr., Ron Kellogg III, or—for one glorious five-yard completion—something called a Ryker Fyfe.
In addition to being a superlative runner, Abdullah's a solid receiver out of the backfield; he cracked 100 yards of offense in all 13 games, and hit the century mark on the ground alone in all but two of them. If you've got a little time to kill, here are 14 minutes of Abdullah highlights from 2013 set to a quality selection of hip hop instrumentals—you won't be bored:
Mark's 2013 highlights, meanwhile, come in JPG form:
Oh, I almost forgot: Abdullah's also a really dangerous return man, averaging 26.1 yards with a TD on 47 career kickoff returns and 10.2 yards with another TD on 31 punt returns. Nebraska didn't utilize him as a returner last year because of his workload at running back, but there are no such limitations in hypothetical MGoB1G fantasyland.
RB/KR/PR Ameer Adbullah it is. Hello, Heisman candidate in the fifth round.
[AFTER THE JUMP: HAAAAAAAAAIIIRRRRRR, Seth drafts more Northwestern skill players for some reason.]
“Well here we go. We have another week coming up, and obviously this is going to be a huge challenge for us defensively because it’s a very very explosive offense. Watching them on film and watching what they’ve done so far this year, this will be a big test for us, so we’re looking for it. Going on the road and playing an offense like this, it’ll kind of [allow us] to see where we’re at.”
Do you use that at all to keep guys from getting complacent?
“We won’t get complacent. Believe me. That won’t happen. We’ve got so far to go, you know. I mean, again, I’m proud of the way they have played hard. I’m proud of everybody buying into try and run to the football as hard as you can, but there’s so many things we have to get better at, and they see that on the film, and they believe it just as much as we as coaches do. That’s what’s pleasing. They know where they have to get to yet and how far away they are. We just have to keep taking strides and keep trying to get better.”
How has Taylor Martinez been able to improve as a passer?
“Well I think their running game is the best, or one of the best in the Big Ten. Any time you have a really good running game, guys can get a little more open than they would if it was a true passing situation. He’s a good quarterback. I think the other thing is his offensive line looks a lot more athletic this year. They’re a very good offensive line, and they’ve protected him, and he’s a year older.”