2017 preview

For 2017, instead of previewing conferences division-by-division, I decided to preview the 64 Power Five teams individually, so I ranked them and counted down from the bottom.

I created a ranking system based heavily off of Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings: half of the ranking comes from the S&P rankings from the past five seasons among Power Five teams (1/3 of that number is 2016’s ranking; 1/3 is the average from 2014-2016, 1/3 is the average from 2012-2016); half comes from two component parts of his 2017 S&P+ projections, weighed evenly – recruiting impact and returning production – and ranked 1 through 64. There is no subjectivity involved in these rankings and they skew towards emphasizing where the teams were according the 2016 S&P+. I think it serves as a decent way to sequence these previews.

Previously: #64 Purdue, #63 Rutgers, #62 Kansas, #61 Illinois, #60 Boston College, #59 Virginia, #58 Vanderbilt, #57 Syracuse. #56 Maryland, #55 Arizona, #54 Wake Forest, #53 Duke, #52 Iowa State, #51 Texas Tech, #50 Missouri, #49 Oregon State. #48 Arizona State, #47 Cal, #46 Indiana, #45 Kentucky, #44 West Virginia, #43 South Carolina, #42 Washington State, #41 Northwestern. #40 Minnesota, #39 Iowa, #38 Colorado, #37 Kansas State, #36 Utah, #35 Georgia Tech, #34 Nebraska, #33 Michigan State. #32 North Carolina, #31 NC State, #30 UCLA, #29 Mississippi State, #28 Oregon, #27 Arkansas, #26 Pittsburgh, #25 Baylor. #24 Oklahoma State, #23 Virginia Tech, #22 Georgia, #21 TCU, #20 Texas, #19 Tennessee. #18 Ole Miss, #17 Texas A&M, #16 Miami, #15 Wisconsin, #14 Louisville, #13 Washington. #12 Penn State, #11 Florida, #10 Stanford, #9 Auburn. #8 Michigan, #7 USC, #6 Oklahoma, #5 LSU.

(I didn’t include Notre Dame)

[hit the JUMP for the previews]

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebackers

Denzel Ward takes over as OSU's top corner. [Patrick Barron]

I'm sorry, but I couldn't bring myself to rank Indiana first.

Explanations for the stats used in this post can be found here. I leaned towards being generous with returning starters in this category because in today's football the nickel is a starter in all but name.

1. Ohio State

Returning Starters	Passing S&P+ (Rank)	Passing Success Rate (Rank)	Passing IsoPPP (Rank)	DB Havoc Rate (Rank)	PD to INC
2	125.2 (8)	36.8% (24)	1.40 (30)	7.2% (35)	34.6% (50)

This year, like last year, will test Ohio State's ability to reload in the secondary. They passed that test with flying colors last year, hardly missing a beat despite losing Eli Apple, Vonn Bell, and Tyvis Powell. Now they must replace three first-round draft picks: corners Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley and safety Malik Hooker.

The talent is there for another reload. Denzel Ward, who played close to starter-level snaps as the third corner, allowed only a 55.4 passer rating when targeted; he's yet another NFL prospect. Damon Arnette, who saw action as a redshirt freshman last year, is competing for the other corner spot with JuCo transfer Kendall Sheffield, a former five-star Alabama signee; both will play quite a bit. There's probably going to be a drop in quality from two first-rounders, but it still may not be much.

Safety is a bit more uncertain. Senior Damon Webb was the weak link among last year's starters, and unlike Arnette he couldn't blame youth for his subpar play. The other spot is still a tossup between sophomore Jordan Fuller and senior Erick Smith, who both played fewer than 100 snaps last year. The development on the back end will determine if this continues to be an elite pass defense or merely a good one. They'll be helped mightily either way by what should be a fearsome pass rush.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the list.]

Previously: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends, Offensive Line, Defensive Line

Chris Worley moves from spacebacker to MIKE this year. [Eric Upchurch]

[If you haven't seen Seth's post from this morning, please check it out for both a great explainer on the power spread evolution and links to several ways you can help those affected by Hurricane Harvey.]

I hate to say it but I'm starting to get the sense Ohio State could be pretty good.

You've read half a gazillion words this week and have several gazillion to go, so let's get right to it. Explanations for the stats used in this post can be found here.

1. Ohio State

Returning Starters	Rushing S&P+ (Rank)	Rushing Success Rate (Rank)	Rushing IsoPPP (Rank)	LB Havoc Rate (Rank)
2	120.2 (15)	35.3% (9)	1.08 (66)	4.4% (54)

This Buckeye unit is led by outside linebacker Jerome Baker, a great player in space who grades out well in every phase. He boasts the second-highest grade of any returning linebacker in the country, per Pro Football Focus. He's an All-American candidate with a shot at the first round of the NFL Draft if he improves at shedding blocks.

OSU loses star middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan. They've chosen an unusual way to replace him, shifting spacebacker Chris Worley—who was basically a LB/S hybrid last year—to the middle. While Worley was excellent in his role last year, that won't be an easy transition. Even if that doesn't work out, though, OSU should be fine. Senior Dante Booker moves into the starting lineup after missing 2016 to injury, and five-star freshman MIKE Baron Browning may be too talented to keep off the field—he's already taken McMillan's old #5 jersey.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the list.]