2015-16 wisconsin

Michigan went 0-for-2 on these shots. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]

For the first 30 minutes or so, Michigan engaged in a back-and-forth battle against Wisconsin. When all-too-familiar issues plagued the Wolverines late, however, the Badgers pulled away, and Michigan's NCAA Tournament fate remains in serious question.

Zak Irvin tallied 14 points and eight rebounds to lead Michigan in both categories. He did the bulk of his damage in the first half, however, and his missed transition layup—on the heels of Derrick Walton leaving a fast break lay-in achingly short—was a lowlight among a series of backbreaking errors by the Wolverines down the stretch.

Irvin also got bullied by Nigel Hayes down the stretch, but he was far from alone in his struggles on that end. Duncan Robinson and Aubrey Dawkins were each victimized way too easily off the dribble. Mark Donnal couldn't avoid foul trouble for the second straight game. Half-hearted doubling in the post opened up the perimeter for a parade of threes by Bronson Koenig (19 points, 3/6 3P) and Vitto Brown (14, 4/6) and didn't do much to slow Wisconsin's bigs; Hayes and Ethan Happ combined for 28 points and made 10/18 two-pointers.

When Michigan's defensive shortcomings caught up to them, the offense faded, too. Irvin had just four points and two turnovers in the second half. Walton went 3/13 from the field, 0/6 in the second half. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, the team's most reliable player of late, had only two points on 1/5 shooting. Robinson and Dawkins made 3/6 three-pointers but struggled to find open looks. Only Ricky Doyle, who made all five of his field goal attempts for ten points, had a notably good offensive performance.

The Wolverines played like a bubble team facing a clear-cut tourney team. They've got a week to practice before welcoming an Iowa squad to the Crisler Center on Saturday that's lost four of their last five and must face Indiana on Tuesday. With a victory, Michigan can still feel confident about their tourney chances. A loss would make for a stressful Big Ten Tournament.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Nigel Hayes is a big presence for the Badgers. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

THE US

Caris LeVert is doubtful for Sunday's game and even that might be optimistic; John Beilein said this afternoon he doesn't expect LeVert to practice the next two days. LeVert's availability for the rest of the season is in serious doubt. Beilein insinuated he could be shut down completely if he's not ready to play next week. This is depressing as hell.

THE STAKES

Covered in exacting detail yesterday. A win would all but lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament. A loss would keep Michigan on the bubble; they'd have one more shot at a bid-clinching victory in the regular season next Saturday against Iowa. If Michigan loses both, they'd need to win at least one game—and quite possibly two—in the Big Ten Tournament to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

This game also affects BTT seeding. Michigan sits a half-game behind Wisconsin in the conference standings. A victory would keep the Wolverines in contention for the #4 or #5 seed; a loss and they're more likely to be somewhere in the 6-8 range depending on the Iowa outcome.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	SIBMIHHAT
G	3	Zak Showalter	Jr.	6'2, 184	77	13	No
Good role player. Low usage, leads B1G in eFG%, solid defender.
G	24	Bronson Koenig	Jr.	6'4, 193	86	20	No
Excellent outside shooter, takes care of ball, struggling inside the arc.
F	30	Vitto Brown	Jr.	6'8, 230	61	21	Kinda
Decent offensive rebounder, great midrange game, hits occasional three.
F	10	Nigel Hayes	Jr.	6'8, 240	90	27	Kinda
Not shooting well from field, but gets tons of FTs. Good post passer.
F	22	Ethan Happ	R-Fr.	6'9, 235	61	23	Very
Good rebounder, leads B1G in steal rate, draws lots of fouls, okay finisher.
G	21	Khalil Iverson	Fr.	6'5, 205	33	15	Yes
Minutes vary wildly from game-to-game. Coming off solid showing vs. Iowa.
G	11	Jordan Hill	R-So.	6'3, 178	31	13	No
Low-usage shooter hits 37% of threes, doesn't do much else.
F	25	Alex Illikainen	Fr.	6'9, 220	25	14	No
Stretch four makes 50% of twos, 38% of threes. Not a rebounder.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Friday, February 12, 2016

Wisconsin 1, #6 Michigan 4

1st period

MOTTE GOAL, MICHIGAN

UW 0 UM 1 EV 04:25 Assists: Compher & De Jong

De Jong picks up a loose puck in the neutral zone and moves it close to the blue line, but he’s shoved off the puck before he can gain the zone. The puck rolls ahead to Motte, who sees Compher opposite him and passes across.

Compher tries to corral the puck on his backhand but it hits the blade and hops over. He has to turn toward the wall and head down the boards to gather it.

As Compher comes out of his turn he’s already made the decision to pass; he must have seen Motte heading to the net before turning, because he unleashes a slap pass the second he’s got the puck. You can see there’s one Wisconsin defender who’s noticed Motte drove outside to cut inside.

The aforementioned defender isn’t able to do anything to stop the shot, though, as the pass gets through traffic and is shoveled toward the net while Motte’s still unchecked. Jurusik doesn’t know where Motte is, and he can’t shift back and over from where he was positioned for a potential Compher shot in time to get anything on Motte’s shot.

[After THE JUMP: A puck disappears under the side of the net and is called a goal. I blame gravitational waves, which seems to be a popular explanation.]