2015-16 michigan state

Friday, February 5, 2016

#5 Michigan 2, Michigan State 3

1st period

No scoring

2nd period

Cox goal, Michigan State

UM 0 MSU 1 EV 10:41 Assists: penalty shot

I can’t remember GBGAing a penalty shot goal before, but it fits in with how strange a game this ended up being. Cox gets the puck in the neutral zone off a nice stretch pass that puts him behind two defenders, and while Werenski starts to close in he then does this.

msu 1-1

If you’re wondering why there was a penalty shot when the puck still ended up on net, read the third bullet below. (Also, though Racine had to make a save, the puck wasn’t shot; it rolls on net from the position pictured above.)

msu 1-2

It looks like Cox is going to shoot from his off foot, and Racine’s in good position to stop this.

msu 1-3

He then executes a really nice toe-drag to get the puck to his backhand. Racine has to get his leg pad down and shifts his weight to Cox’s left.

msu 1-4

Cox pulls it back across to his forehand; this gets Racine to his left, which opens up the five-hole long enough for Cox to get the shot he was looking for.

msu 1-5

[Things get better after THE JUMP]



[Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

That felt all too familiar.

For the second straight game, Michigan got run off their home court in a contest far uglier than even the lopsided final score would indicate. Within ten seconds of the opening tipoff, MSU guard Bryn Forbes drilled a three-pointer. He'd sink seven more before taking a seat; taking an early seat due to the blowout was the only thing preventing him from tying and likely breaking the Crisler single-game record of nine made three-pointers.

With Denzel Valentine and Eron Harris chipping in, State sunk ten of their 14 first-half 3PA; Michigan couldn't stick with shooters whether in man or zone, allowing MSU to pick them apart with impressive passing. The Wolverines simply had no answer on the other end, making 4/16 first-half 3PA—3/6 for Derrick Walton, 1/10 for everyone else—and tallying only four assists to MSU's 11 in the opening stanza.

Matters didn't improve in the second half. Apparently tired of lighting Michigan up from the outside, MSU's first four second-half buckets came in the paint, including a demoralizing steal-and-slam by Matt Costello, who also embarrassed Mark Donnal with a subsequent spin move and reverse dunk on a post-up. The Spartans lead ballooned to as many as 30 points with 2:48 to play, at which point they were on pace for the best single-game eFG% mark of any team in the country this season; only a solid showing by Michigan's garbage-time unit made the score look half-respectable, and a series of missed shots by benchwarmers brought MSU's eFG% down to a mere 78.0%.

For the second straight game, Michigan displayed little ability to get anything going towards the basket, and they couldn't free up shooters as a result; Duncan Robinson finished with two points and missed all three of his attempts from beyond the arc. Zak Irvin did his best to keep Michigan within reach, scoring 19 on 16 shots, but he didn't get close to enough help from the supporting cast on either end. Aubrey Dawkins chipped in 14 points, but 12 of those came in the second half after the game was well in hand.

Michigan gets a badly needed chance to regroup Wednesday at Minnesota, which is still winless in the Big Ten, and they'll need to figure out what's wrong in a hurry; a rough final seven-game stretch starts next Saturday when the Wolverines host Purdue.

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (17-6, 7-3 B1G) vs

Michigan State (19-4, 6-4)
WHERE Crisler Center

Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 2 pm ET, Saturday
LINE MSU -2 (KenPom)
TV CBS

PBP: Carter Blackburn

Analyst: Clark Kellogg

Right: Izzoface. [Fuller]

THE US

John Beilein still won't get into specifics about the availability of Caris LeVert. Today he said LeVert was able to do more in practice yesterday and "we'll see what happens."

LeVert himself has apparently told a few people that he expects to be back on the floor tomorrow. The expectation is he'd come off the bench in his first game back before working his way to his old role.

So, um, we'll see what happens. As Beilein has said repeatedly, we won't know LeVert's final status until we see him (or don't) in warmups.

THE STAKES

Aside from rivalry pride? A win would be a huge boost for Michigan's tournament resume; most recent bracket projections have M in the eight- to ten-seed range. The Wolverines need at least three more wins over a tough final eight games of the Big Ten slate to feel comfortable with their tourney chances, and while KenPom projects them to reach 11-7—getting four wins down the stretch—he only has them as outright favorites in two of those games. (Two others, vs. Purdue and at OSU, are essentially coin-flips.)

While it's very unlikely Michigan catches Iowa and Indiana atop the conference standings, a victory would be critical for Big Ten Tournament seeding; a win would get M two games clear of MSU with the head-to-head tiebreaker in their only matchup. The Wolverines could find themselves alone in fourth place with a win and a Purdue loss at Maryland on Saturday.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 14 Eron Harris Jr. 6'3, 185 50 25 No
40% three-point shooter also gets to FT line frequently.
G 5 Bryn Forbes Sr. 6'3, 190 66 19 No
One of the best pure three-point gunners in the country.
G 45 Denzel Valentine Sr. 6'5, 220 65 28 No
4th in KPOY. Consistent triple-double threat. 50/43/83 shooting splits.
F 23 Deyonta Davis Fr. 6'10, 240 45 19 Very
1st in B1G in block rate, 4th in 2P%, 19th in OR%, 5th in DR%. Kid's good.
F 10 Matt Costello Sr. 6'9, 245 55 22 Very
Good finisher and shot-blocker, elite rebounder, fouls under control.
G 20 Matt McQuaid Fr. 6'5, 190 41 14 No
Low-usage, mostly a spot-up shooter, hits 42% of his threes.
F 2 Javon Bess So. 6'5, 220 33 17 Yes
Inefficient scorer, but gets to line and does decent work on the glass.
F 25 Kenny Goins Fr. 6'6, 225 23 13 Very
Minuscule usage in B1G play, minutes vary wildly depending on opponent.

Point guard LouRawls "Tum Tum" Nairn is "doubtful at best" with a foot injury.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]