Gardner's implied question is the same we're all asking [Fuller]

The 2014 football season hinges on whether the offensive line can go from one of the worst in the country to just mediocre. We've mentioned the downsides: it has to replace two NFL tackles. The upside is an offensive coordinator who plans to simplify the things they'll have to do, a ton of talent, and rather good excuses for why the bulk of guys weren't so good (youth compounded by panicky/insane coaching decisions). The competence of coaches replaced, arriving, or remaining can't be determined until they play, so guesses at their 2014 performance have to be extrapolated from what we know of the current players and the typical progression of men like them.

When Michigan was still putting together those 2012 and 2013 classes I looked over the history of our offensive linemen going back to the mid-'90s, because my memory before that is weak.

Status	Year in program
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
All-B1G+	-	-	1	10	12
Solid Starter	1	8	14	10	13
Liability Starter	1	3	8	12	6
Backup	0	50	30	17	8
Redshirting	75	-	-	-	-
Injured	0	6	3	2	-
Playing defense	2	1	1	-	-
Not on team	1	6	13	17	29
% Available	99%	92%	81%	75%	57%
% Solid +	1%	11%	21%	29%	37%
% All-B1G+	-	-	1%	15%	18%

The results were the growth chart below. I've reproduced it with updated data from 2013:

Really it's more specific than the above. If you're the backup to Steve Hutchinson in 2000 you could be pretty solid or terrible, but if you were an interior lineman on the 2013 team and hale and still couldn't crack the depth chart, you were obviously not good at that point. One thing working in our favor is Michigan has historically brought in offensive line classes rated about as highly as the recent crops. If you tried this with MSU over the same period there would be stretches of 2-stars (and, um, personal issues) to throw off the numbers.

A more precise way to show where our OL are at this point is to find closer comparisons to historic players at this point in their careers. I couldn't figure out a good way to show "tracks" before, but I think I've learned enough about table html now to make a crude flow chart. Sample sizes are way too small to say "Kalis will be X good by Y season," but if you can read it to say "At that age, Steve Schilling and Patrick Omameh were both about where Kalis is now." Usefulness is better at capping expectations: you can always say so-and-so was a backup at this point, but Miller's not going to be Molk.

Here goes:

Freshman(True)	Fr/So	So/Jr	Jr/Sr	Sr 5th	Players
Solid	Solid	x	x	n/a	Justin Boren
Liability Bosch, (Cole?)	?	?	?	?	?
Defense	Backup	Backup	Star	n/a	Maurice Williams, Damon Denson
Not on team (x)	TransferRS	Backup	Solid	Star	Jonathan Goodwin
Redshirted Kugler, Samuelson, Dawson, Fox, Tuley-Tillman,(Bushell-Beatty)	Solid	Star	Star	Star	David Molk
		Solid	Star	Star	Jansen, Hutchinson, Backus, Long, Lewan
	Liability Kalis, Magnuson	Liability	Solid	Solid	Steven Schilling
		Solid	Liability	Liability	Patrick Omameh
	Backup Braden, Bars	Solid Glasgow	Star	Star	David Brandt, David Baas
			Solid	Star	Tony Pape, Adam Kraus, Schofield
				Solid	Stenavich, Lentz
		Liability Miller	Solid	Star	Zach Adami
			Injured	Solid	Chris Ziemann
			Liability	Solid	Mark Huyge
				Liability	Reuben Riley
				x	Alex Mitchell
			Backup	Backup	Demeterius Solomon
		Backup	Solid	Solid	Dave Pearson
				Liability	Ricky Barnum
			Liability	Solid	Frazier, Petruziello, Bihl, Ortmann
				Liability	David Moosman, Perry Dorrestein
				Backup	Ben Mast, Courtney Morgan
			Backup	Solid	Kurt Anderson, Leo Henige
				Liability	Elliott Mealer
				Backup	N. Parker, Denay, Kolodziej, McAvoy
				Unrenewed	Partchenko, Potts, Christopfel, Gaston, DeBenedictis, Ciulla, Gallimore, Khoury
	Defense		Backup	Backup	John Ferrara
	Injuries				Zirbel, Mossa, Sharrow, Brooks, Schifano, C. Bryant, Tannous, A.Brown, Simelis, Berishaj, C.Pace
	Transfers				Ries, Moltane, Zuttah, Wermers, O'Neill, Posada

[Discussion after the jump]

This hurt. [Fuller]

Longtime readers will know the MGoBlog policy on sacking: sacks and sack yardage should be counted as passing, because they are pass plays, not rushing, as the NCAA and thus everybody else is wont to do. Counting sacks as passing leads to a better understanding of success and where yards come from, and prevents problems like the computer in the NCAA videogames passing every play because the sacks that generates keep making the rushing numbers look progressively more awful.

For the Hail to the Victors preview books (kickstarter coming soon) each year we put these "At-a-Glance" boxes into the opponent previews, complete with offensive and defensive stats that we've adjusted for this. Having done the calculations for that, I thought I'd share them with you.

First, the difference it makes to passing stats:

2013 Passing		Unadjusted					Sack-Adjusted
Team		Pass Att	Pass Yds	YPA	Rk		Sacks	Sack Yds	YPA	Rk
Indiana		470	3680	7.83	2nd		18	121	7.29	1st
Ohio State		368	2846	7.73	3rd		22	135	6.95	2nd
Penn State		409	3110	7.60	4th		22	135	6.90	3rd
Michigan		395	3221	8.15	1st		36	270	6.85	4th
Wisconsin		355	2562	7.22	6th		16	94	6.65	5th
Illinois		455	3452	7.59	5th		30	231	6.64	6th
Iowa		375	2562	6.83	10th		15	61	6.41	7th
Michigan State		430	2964	6.89	9th		17	127	6.35	8th
Nebraska		378	2557	6.76	11th		17	140	6.12	9th
Northwestern		382	2726	7.14	8th		36	198	6.05	10th
Minnesota		267	1925	7.21	7th		27	170	5.97	11th
Purdue		426	2590	6.08	12th		38	265	5.01	12th

By counting sacks as passing Michigan drops from 8.15 yards per attempt (good for the best passing team in the conference last year) to a more realistic 6.85 YPA, dropping them to fourth. Minnesota's passing game dropped from middling to awful, Iowa's climbed from the bottom to the middle.

And the difference to running stats:

2013 Rushing		Unadjusted					Sack-Adjusted
Team		Rushes	Rush Yds	YPC	Rk		Sacks	Sack Yds	YPA	Rk
Ohio State		635	4321	6.80	1st		22	135	7.27	1st
Wisconsin		557	3689	6.62	2nd		16	94	6.99	2nd
Indiana		458	2422	5.29	3rd		18	121	5.78	3rd
Nebraska		584	2804	4.80	4th		17	140	5.19	4th
Illinois		411	1668	4.06	10th		30	231	4.98	5th
Minnesota		586	2538	4.33	5th		27	170	4.84	6th
Northwestern		507	2069	4.08	9th		36	198	4.81	7th
Penn State		501	2088	4.17	8th		22	135	4.64	8th
Michigan State		569	2433	4.28	6th		17	127	4.64	9th
Iowa		556	2338	4.21	7th		15	61	4.43	10th
Michigan		498	1634	3.28	11th		36	270	4.12	11th
Purdue		319	805	2.52	12th		38	265	3.81	12th

Michigan's awful running game is still awful, but it no longer looks like the Scheelhaase option-running game was a disaster. Ohio State's 7.27 YPC isn't just first among the conference; OSU and Wisconsin were the #1 and #2 rushing offenses in the country. Michigan: 115th out of 125 teams.

This isn't perfect since quarterback scrambles still can't be pulled out of rushing stats, but that's not so big of a deal considering a running QB should be contributing to your rushing success.

[Jump for Devin Garder's passing season and profiles of next year's opponents]

Non-Conference Opponents

RPI Effect Only Teams:

UMass-Lowell (5-14) Beat Maine, but lost to New Hampshire. I’m assuming this was hockey. Houston Baptist (4-12) had a rough Bayou-centric week, losing home games to New Orleans and Southeastern Louisiana. At this point, you probably aren’t even reading this section because who cares. But I’m still writing. South Carolina State (7-13) beat Norfolk State, but lost to Hampton. I’m tempted to call this section “a tree falling on a blog when a 402 error knocks out the servers.” Coppin State (7-13) lost to North Carolina Central, but beat North Carolina A&T, and are a middle-of-the-pack MEAC team, which is probably best-case scenario.

Long Beach State (7-12) beat Cal State Northridge. Purple monkey dishwasher. Holy Cross (11-9) is on a four game winning streak, beating Lafayette and Navy. Inflammable and flammable mean the same thing. Charlotte (12-7) lost to Louisiana Tech and Rice, though given the last week, Michigan’s loss to the 49ers has shifted from “resume anchor” toward “amusing anomaly indicating the unpredictable nature of sports.” Resume. Résumé. Ah, better. Vive Napoleon! Allons enfants de la patrie, le jour de gloire est arrivé.

Big Sorts of Teams

#16 Iowa State (15-4, 3-4 Big 12)

This week: Beat Kansas State (81-75); Lost to Kansas (92-81)

Somehow, the bracket gurus still have Iowa State as a 4-seed. You figure it out.

Florida State (13-6, 4-2 ACC)

This week: Lost to Duke (Many-Few); Lost @ NC State (74-70)

Yikes, this week. Florida State has fought its way down to the bubble. For some reason, they have been terrible on the defensive glass; they’re dead last in the ACC, losing 40.8% of rebounds to their conference opponents. I wonder if this will come into play against…

#23 Dook (17-4, 6-2 ACC)

This week: Splattered Florida State (78-56); Beat Pitt (80-65)

Duke is hitting on all cylinders, beating KenPom’s #13 and #22 teams by a combined 37 points, with the 15 point win over #13 Pitt coming on the road. In possibly the most amazing stat I have seen all year, Duke grabbed 27 OFFENSIVE rebounds (to FSU’s 24 TOTAL rebounds). That is an OR% of 61.4%. A Duke miss was way more likely to end in Duke hands than in Seminole hands. And FSU, as I have been reminding you weekly, is huge. Jabari Parker had 10 offensive boards. That is how you beat a quality opponent by 22 despite shooting 10-39 (25.6%) from INSIDE the arc. Mind: bottled.

#1 Arizona (21-0, 8-0 PAC 12)

This week: Beat Colorado (69-57); Beat Utah (65-56); Beat Stanford (60-57)

Arizona is going to walk away with the PAC 12, and could probably sleepwalk into a 1-seed. So nothing has changed.

Stanford (13-7, 4-4 PAC 12)

This week: Lost to UCLA (91-74); Beat USC (79-71 OT); Lost to Arizona (60-57)

Stanford is riiiiiiiight on the bubble right now, and a win over Arizona would have been worth an incredible amount to the committee. They’ve still got a shot, but their golden ticket may have just escaped.

[The Big Ten after the Jump]