2014 may be 2013 after all

A man in my position cannot afford to be made to look ridikuhlis.

Ace: Brian and I did a segment on this week's podcast in which we each listed our top five most ridiculous games of the Hoke era. Not only were our bottom three picks entirely different, but between Twitter and the comments at least a dozen games that didn't make the cut were suggested as meriting inclusion, and... it was really hard to argue with a lot of them.

So let's try this again. List and explain your top five, perhaps mention a few dishonorable mentions, and feel free to explain your methodology—I'm intentionally leaving "ridiculous" open to interpretation.

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BiSB: I just drew up a quick list of candidates. There are 16 games on that list. I HATE ALL THE THINGS.

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Ace: Now remember that the very first game Hoke coached featured two Brandon Herron touchdowns and was called due to a biblical storm before the third quarter ended...

Even the wins, man. Even the wins.

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[After the jump: we discuss 60% of the games under Hoke]

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Gardner's implied question is the same we're all asking [Fuller]

The 2014 football season hinges on whether the offensive line can go from one of the worst in the country to just mediocre. We've mentioned the downsides: it has to replace two NFL tackles. The upside is an offensive coordinator who plans to simplify the things they'll have to do, a ton of talent, and rather good excuses for why the bulk of guys weren't so good (youth compounded by panicky/insane coaching decisions). The competence of coaches replaced, arriving, or remaining can't be determined until they play, so guesses at their 2014 performance have to be extrapolated from what we know of the current players and the typical progression of men like them.

When Michigan was still putting together those 2012 and 2013 classes I looked over the history of our offensive linemen going back to the mid-'90s, because my memory before that is weak.

Status

     Year in program
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
All-B1G+ - - 1 10 12
Solid Starter 1 8 14 10 13
Liability Starter 1 3 8 12 6
Backup 0 50 30 17 8
Redshirting 75 - - - -
Injured 0 6 3 2 -
Playing defense 2 1 1   - -
Not on team 1 6 13 17 29
% Available 99% 92% 81% 75% 57%
% Solid + 1% 11% 21% 29% 37%
% All-B1G+ - - 1% 15% 18%

The results were the growth chart below. I've reproduced it with updated data from 2013:

Really it's more specific than the above. If you're the backup to Steve Hutchinson in 2000 you could be pretty solid or terrible, but if you were an interior lineman on the 2013 team and hale and still couldn't crack the depth chart, you were obviously not good at that point. One thing working in our favor is Michigan has historically brought in offensive line classes rated about as highly as the recent crops. If you tried this with MSU over the same period there would be stretches of 2-stars (and, um, personal issues) to throw off the numbers.

A more precise way to show where our OL are at this point is to find closer comparisons to historic players at this point in their careers. I couldn't figure out a good way to show "tracks" before, but I think I've learned enough about table html now to make a crude flow chart. Sample sizes are way too small to say "Kalis will be X good by Y season," but if you can read it to say "At that age, Steve Schilling and Patrick Omameh were both about where Kalis is now." Usefulness is better at capping expectations: you can always say so-and-so was a backup at this point, but Miller's not going to be Molk.

Here goes:

Freshman(True) Fr/So So/Jr Jr/Sr Sr 5th Players
Solid Solid x x n/a Justin Boren
Liability
Bosch, (Cole?)

?

?

?

?

?

Defense Backup Backup Star n/a Maurice Williams,
Damon Denson
Not on team (x) TransferRS Backup Solid Star Jonathan Goodwin

Redshirted
Kugler, Samuelson, Dawson, Fox, Tuley-Tillman,(Bushell-Beatty)

Solid

Star Star Star David Molk
Solid Star Star Jansen, Hutchinson, Backus, Long, Lewan
Liability
Kalis, Magnuson
Liability Solid Solid Steven Schilling
Solid Liability Liability Patrick Omameh

Backup
Braden, Bars

Solid
Glasgow
Star Star David Brandt, David Baas
Solid Star Tony Pape, Adam Kraus, Schofield
Solid Stenavich, Lentz
Liability
Miller
Solid Star Zach Adami
Injured Solid Chris Ziemann
Liability Solid Mark Huyge
Liability Reuben Riley
x Alex Mitchell
Backup Backup Demeterius Solomon

Backup

Solid Solid Dave Pearson
Liability Ricky Barnum
Liability Solid Frazier, Petruziello, Bihl, Ortmann
Liability David Moosman, Perry Dorrestein
Backup Ben Mast, Courtney Morgan
Backup Solid Kurt Anderson, Leo Henige
Liability Elliott Mealer
Backup N. Parker, Denay, Kolodziej, McAvoy
Unrenewed Partchenko, Potts, Christopfel, Gaston, DeBenedictis, Ciulla, Gallimore, Khoury
Defense Backup Backup John Ferrara
Injuries Zirbel, Mossa, Sharrow, Brooks, Schifano, C. Bryant, Tannous, A.Brown, Simelis, Berishaj, C.Pace
Transfers Ries, Moltane, Zuttah, Wermers, O'Neill, Posada

[Discussion after the jump]