2014-15 michigan state #2

irvin-msu

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (13-12, 6-7 B1G) at

Michigan State (17-8, 8-4)
WHERE Crisler Center,

Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 9 pm ET, Tuesday
LINE MSU -2 (KenPom)
TV ESPN

PBP: Mike Tirico

Analyst: Dan Dakich

THE US

While there's still hope that Derrick Walton will return before the season ends, he won't be back in uniform tonight. 

THE STAKES

Losing four in a row has put Michigan in danger of missing the NIT. The Bracket Matrix listed M as a six-seed when they updated at the end of last week; DRatings put them as the last three-seed; Big Apple Buckets placed them as a five-seed before the Illinois loss.

While Michigan finishes with two very winnable games (at Northwestern, Rutgers), they probably need to pull an upset in one of these next three much more difficult games (MSU, OSU, at Maryland) to feel comfortable with their postseason chances heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

As for pride, Michigan hasn't lost to State at Crisler since 2010, when the Spartans got away with murder on the would-be game-winning lob to Deshawn Sims.

THE LAST TIME

Led by Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan almost pulled off a shocker in the Breslin Center, surging in the second half before going scoreless in overtime. The Wolverines haven't won since.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 20 Travis Trice Sr. 6'0, 170 80 25 No
Disciplined, productive distributor. Dangerous outside shooter. Not great inside arc.
G 5 Bryn Forbes Jr. 6'3, 180 68 15 No
Spot-up gunner hitting 46% of threes.
G 45 Denzel Valentine Jr. 6'5, 220 75 28 No
Does a bit of everything: rebounding, passing, shooting, and hilarious turnovers.
F 22 Branden Dawson Sr. 6'6, 225 84 22 Very
Great athlete, monster on the boards, excellent defender. Not a shot creator.
F 34 Gavin Schilling So. 6'9, 240 45 18 Very
Solid rebounder and rim protector. Decent finisher.
F 10 Matt Costello Jr. 6'9, 245 48 18 Very
Very similar minutes and profile as Schilling. Eminently elbowable face.
G 11 Lowrawls "Tum Tum" Nairn Fr. 5'10, 170 41 13 Very
All-pass, no-shoot PG who's prone to freshman mistakes.
G 3 Alvin Ellis So. 6'4, 205 18 14 Yes
Getting minutes with Javon Bess hurt. Has been really bad this year.

THE RESUME

Since the last meeting, MSU dropped a home game against Illinois, blew out Northwestern on the road, and most recently staved off Ohio State at the Breslin Center on a game-winner by Denzel Valentine. The Spartans are currently on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Michigan can play spoiler.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]