2004 recruiting

Content note: I'll come back to Manball Matrix next time. I thought this was more timely. Note II: So you won't miss another commitment, while reading this article you are advised to hit refresh on your browser at regular intervals.

It was a commit-a-palooza unlike Michigan had seen since scholarship offers were sent by telegram and a signing ceremony was when a young player stepped off the platform of Kerrytown Station to serenades by hawkers, haberdashers, and hazing-minded upperclassman. Within one week of Michigan's annual summer camp, seven players were moved to end their recruitments and commit to the Wolverines' Class of 2004:

Name	Pos	State	Ht	Wt	Rivals	Scout	RR	Committed
Chris Rogers	LB/DE	PA	6'3"	240	4	3	5.8	6/15/2003
Will Johnson	DT	MI	6'4"	285	4	4	5.9	6/18/2003
Roger Allison	FB/LB	MI	6'2"	230	3	4	5.6	6/18/2003
Grant DeBenedictis	OL	FL	6'5"	270	3	3	5.5	6/20/2003
Charles Stewart	DB	MI	6'1"	188	3	3	5.7	6/20/2003
Alex Mitchell	OL	MI	6'5"	310	4	3	5.9	6/20/2003
Mike Hart	RB	NY	5'10"	175	3	3	5.7	6/21/2003

The verbal explosion was mostly camp commits, i.e. guys who impressed enough to earn an offer which they immediately accepted. In an age when mid-June was still quite early to be filling nearly half of a class, Commit-a-Palooza '03 was remarkable. With Morgan Trent and Max Martin this was 9 of eventually 22 signed.

[Quick: two more recruits probably just pledged; hit refresh now!]

Michigan later filled that class with Henne, Jamar Adams, Alan Branch, Jamison, Arrington, and a lot more roster fodder who appeared unremarkably in early UFRs, or didn't. At the time I wrote an email I just spent way too much time trying to find that talked about early signees of years prior. The point was to temper the post-euphoric expectations of pre-Facebook friends by showing how previous early birds had a greater chance of busting, what with all the offseasons, lifting clubs, and senior years between now and National Signing Day. Then I proved myself inconclusive.

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With an 8-man commit-fest that forced me to put time stamps in my database to keep track of % of class filled, and which puts the '03 bonanza to shame [refresh reminder], let's try it again. Here's the players, classes 2003 to 2011 in my database who committed to Michigan at least 50 weeks before National Signing Day:

Name	Pos	State	Ht	Wt	RR	Committed	Class	Rivals	Scout
Delonte Hollowell	DB	MI	5'8"	162	5.7	1/17/2010	2011	3	3
Ricardo Miller	WR	MI	6'2"	208	5.7	9/29/2008	2010	3	4
Jeremy Jackson	WR	MI	6'3"	194	5.5	10/1/2008	2010	3	3
Jerald Robinson	WR	OH	6'2"	175	5.7	2/9/2009	2010	3	4
William Campbell	DT	MI	6'5"	317	6.1	6/20/2007	2009	5	5
Boubacar Cissoko	DB	MI	5'9"	171	6	2/4/2007	2008	4	5
Vince Helmuth	RB	MI	6'1"	235	5.5	1/29/2006	2007	3	4
Artis Chambers	DB	IN	6'2"	185	5.6	2/19/2006	2007	3	3
Kevin Grady	RB	MI	5'10"	230	6.1	9/7/2003	2005	5	5
Justin Schifano	OL	NY	6'5"	300	5.8	1/15/2004	2005	4	4
Mario Manningham	WR	OH	6'0"	174	6	2/5/2004	2005	4	4
Morgan Trent	WR	MI	6'1"	180	5.8	2/10/2003	2004	4	4

I didn't include several guys who later decommitted, but I did count Will Campbell, who verbaled to Michigan in June of 2007 (!) and a year later decided to lead Rodriguez on a merry chase until 5 weeks to NSD. Many of these guys—Hollowell, Helmuth, Chambers, Trent—committed on the offer after Junior Day.

[Refresh!]

Well there's Mario, and…well that's a lot of guys who didn't or haven't lived up to their hype. Schifano gave up football, Grady was overrated before he was the guy you could count on to get Michigan at least a mention in the Fulmer Cup, Chambers and Helmuth were whiffs, Cissoko … his thing, and these days the extent of our Campbell and Ricardo dreams are Gabe Watson and Tim Massaquoi.

Busts can come from any time, and this is a small sample of early RR and late Lloyd recruits who didn't have the pedigrees of the solid-to-high 4-stars Hoke is bringing in. Taking out kickers, players with more than half of their eligibility left, guys who didn't qualify, guys who lost their best years to injury before we could get a feel for their evaluation, and proprietors of Fck Lions, here's the apparent success rates by when they committed:

Weeks to NSD	OvRtd	+/-1*	UnRtd	Success Rate	Avg Diff	Tot
50 or more	4	6	--	60.0%	-0.95	12
40 to 49	5	10	--	66.7%	-0.50	17
30 to 39	3	22	1	88.5%	-0.29	35
20 to 29	7	15	1	69.6%	-0.52	27
10 to 19	4	9	--	69.2%	-0.31	17
5 to 9	5	25	1	83.9%	-0.52	36
1 to 4	1	8	--	88.9%	-0.22	19
Week of NSD	5	18	2	80.0%	-0.26	29
Totals/Avgs	34	113	5	77.6%	-0.43	192

"OvRtd" (overrated) to me means guys who probably should have been pegged at 1.5 or more stars below their Scout/Rivals average. "UnRtd" means 1.5 or more stars and were, in order, Hart, Molk, Branch, Englemon and Omemeh. Google Doc here so you rip apart my totally subjective ratings. "Total" on right includes the guys I cut out so you can see the flow of a recruiting year before the Hoke era. FYI 30 to 39 week corresponds to about May-June.

[Refresh now anyway.]

Does this mean anything for the flood of early pledges this week, or much of this year's class for that matter? I don't really think so, no. Mostly what this says is that Michigan had a ton of busts over the last decade of recruiting, and that juniors who commit immediately upon receiving a camp offer are seldom primo athletes.

As of now Michigan has filled approximately half of its projected Class of 2013, (figuring on 22 total) at a point in the cycle when traditionally only about 6 percent of the class has taken shape. A look at previous 50-percent points demonstrates just how unprecedented this is for Michigan:

Year	Commits	Avg Stars	50% Full By	Days to NSD	Final Scout Rk	Final Rivals Rk
2013	11	4.1	2/19/2012	352	n/a	n/a
2012	13	3.6	6/10/2011	235	4	7
2011	10	3.3	1/20/2011	13	29	21
2010	14	3.3	6/20/2009	228	12	20
2009	11	3.6	8/31/2008	157	14	8
2008	12	3.8	7/31/2007	190	6	10
2007	10	3.6	8/24/2006	161	10	12
2006	10	3.5	12/4/2005	59	9.5	13
2005	12	3.5	12/7/2004	57	2	6
2004	11	3.6	8/7/2003	175	5	5
2003	8	3.8	12/10/2002	57	8	17

A handful of these 2013 guys—maybe one or two more than of a class put together later in the year—will probably disappoint from their lofty rankings. This is an inevitability. In fact count on a few never making it to campus, because 17-year-olds change their minds exactly as fast as popular music turns over. But then when you add up that attrition and apply it to the class that formed over the weekend, it's still shaping up to be one of the best incoming groups since Yost was greeting his freshmen at the train station.

So hit refresh one more time, because it only gets better from here.