this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Hello football fans. This is version 5.0 of a monthly segment I will do of UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge. Original purpose of this was to winnow down the 100s of offers Michigan gives to a small pool of players where there is at least a whiff of a chance. After this massive run of commits in June Harbaugh has done much of that work already for the 2016s.
All caveats, warnings, and wag of the fingers about this methodology can be found in earlier versions:
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the V1.0 so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.
The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering UM, so we play those by ear.
After the avalanche of commits in June we only saw Brad Hawkins join the fold in the following 30 days. No worries; it is going to slow down a lot from here as slots are limited. The open question is Harbaugh's Stanford "rolling commitment" system (which Ace outlined) and how they will carry over to UM. Also the # of openings will (may?) be affected by any grayshirts. Potential decommits also might show up - although it seems David Reese (a leading candidate a month ago) won't be one. To that end I've added a"New decommits" section below - which could be a Harbaugh decision in some cases based on his Stanford history.
Changes since V4.0:
- New commits - 1. WR Brad Hawkins
- New decommits - 0.
- New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - OG Johncarlo Valentin, DT Rashan Gary, CB Tony Butler, DE Connor Murphy.
- New warm interest (Offense) - TE Jacob Mathis.
- New warm interest (Defense) - DE Levi Onwuzurike, CB David Long
- No longer Warm - RB Rakeem Boyd, WR Tre Nixon, WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), WR Korey Banks (North Carolina), TE Michael Irvin Jr (Miami - duh), DE Xavier Kelly (Clemson ? in a few hrs), DE Daniel Joseph (PSU), DT Keyshon Comp (USC), LB Jonathan Smith, CB Wayne Davis (OSU), CJ Pollard (USC), K Quinn Nordon (PSU), ATH Devin White
OFFENSE (13 players, 5 UM is a "leader")
|Pos||Name||State||Starz||Ntl Rnk||Pos Rnk||Leader||# Pred|
|WR||Jack Jones||CA||4||53||3||USC 87% / UCLA 13%||15|
|WR||Ahmir Mitchell||NJ||4||79||6||UM 88% /OSU+Rutgers 6%||16|
|WR||Dylan Crawford||CA||4||88||13||USC 560% / ASU 22%||9|
|WR||Desmond Fitzpatrick||MI||3||302||52||UM 79% - Louisville commit||28|
|WR||Grant Holloway||VA||3||423||69||100% VaTech||1|
|WR||Donald Stewart||NJ||3||929||142||71% Stanford / 29% UM||14|
|TE||Naseir Upshur||PA||4||140||4||UM 81% / Miami 8%||26|
|TE||Jacob Mathis||FL||4||259||9||100% Florida||3|
|OT||Jean Delance||TX||4||100||12||Texas A&M 67% / OU 20%||15|
|OT||Landon Dickerson||NC||4||73||10||VaTech 67% / South Car 17%||6|
|OT||Alex Akingbulu||CA||3||455||41||UCLA 100%||3|
|OG||Terrance Davis||MD||4||77||2||UM 76% / Maryland 24%||17|
|OG||Johncarlo Valentin||PA||3||376||14||100% UM||4|
DEFENSE (23 players, 5 UM is a "leader")
|Pos||Name||State||Starz||Ntl Rnk||Pos Rnk||Leader||# Pred|
|DE||Bryson Young||CA||4||278||20||USC 100%||2|
|DE||Connor Murphy||AZ||3||290||21||UM 60% / ASU + Oregon 20%||5|
|DE||Jimmie Taylor||NC||3||710||47||50% NC / 50% Cloudy||2|
|DE||Terrell Lucas||FL||3||1238||73||100% UM||6|
|DE||Marlon Davidson||AL||5||24||3||100% Auburn||21|
|DE||Isaiah Chambers||TX||4||89||6||43% TCU / 43% A&M||14|
|DT||Rashan Gary||NJ||5||1||1||UM 49% / Bama 32%||37|
|DT||Chris Daniels||TX||4||148||15||TCU 50% , Texas A&M 40%||10|
|LB||Dontavious Jackson||TX||4||122||4||Texas 50% / Bama 21%||14|
|LB||Erroll Thompson||AL||3||522||17||Miss State 88% / Bama 12%||8|
|LB||Caleb Kelly||CA||5||18||2||Oklahoma 90% / UM 10%||21|
|LB||Jeffrey McCulloch||TX||4||102||10||Texas 82% / OU 9%||11|
|LB||Devin Bush Jr||FL||4||226||9||FSU 72% / UM 28%||25|
|LB||Jonathan Jones||FL||4||409||30||UM 100%||23|
|LB||Jonathan Smith||NC||3||642||25||100% NC||4|
|CB||David Long||CA||4||68||7||50% Stanford, 30% Wash||10|
|CB / S||Lamar Jackson||CA||4||91||5||100% USC||3|
|CB||Lavert Hill||MI||4||113||10||MSU 55% / UM 40% - PSU commit||20|
|CB||Jared Mayden||TX||4||134||11||Oregon 39% / OSU 17%||23|
|CB||Sir Patrick Scott||MD||3||457||40||Wake Forest Commit||1|
|CB||Tony Butler||OH||3||530||48||88% UM / 12% OSU||17|
|S||Jordan Fuller||NJ||4||120||10||77% OSU||13|
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader, i.e. >50/50.
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
The part where I overanalyze:
This is the time of the year where the big board is shrinking pretty rapidly as people who are only tangentially interested to UM commit elsewhere. The offensive board has shrunk the most as it would appear our actual offer list is going to be something like:
- Amir Mitchell
- Naseir Upshur
- Terrance Davis if he is indeed a silent commit or if not then...Johncarlo Valentin
The defense still has a lot of moving parts. While UM leads for Butler his decision to not make a decision until December probably swings the door wide open for Sir Patrick Scott if he wants the spot and decommits. (Hill seems like a PSU v MSU battle despite those crystal balls which are very old to UM) That would seem to close out the secondary unless we can find a flip down the road.
While we have commmits in the secondary it's where we have a lot of under the radar types and my hope is some bigger fish emerge (i.e. flips) late in the cycle. The search for a speed corner continues. We really have not been in on any high rated safeties nor corners which is strange.
Jonathan Jones is the 2015 candidate for the annual "UM is my leader for months on end but in the end I choose.... not UM." Other than Bush Jr there does not seem to be much movement in UM's direction among the linebackers.
With Kelly likely Clemson bound at DE (or "buck") there is not really a like minded replacement we seem to have a chance with at this time. Connor Murphy - already at 6'7 250 lbs seems more strong side once he gets into college.
Gary will obviously be a battle til signing day - with Bama in the race you can't feel safe until the LOI is in even if he commits. If no Gary we still need a DT and it's sparse out there.
And just as a reminder if Butler doesnt go blue this class will not have an OH recruit in it, unless someone comes out of the blue (pun intended).
MGoBloggers -- Just FYSA, I received an update from Amazon referencing Jon Falk's new book, "Forty Years.."
The new expected delivery date is now Wednesday, 29 July!
This should help subside the offseason blues, albeit briefly. I'm really looking forward to his first-hand stories and will probably fly through this by Friday the 31st. Jon Falk is a living legend.
Just wanted to give everyone an update to let everyone know what has been going on with our project.
This last month we had a clean up day in Detroit and went to Allgean , Michigan to open their community garden. And I got to see Lake Michigan for the first time.
We are moving along on our Flint project, theres paperwork to be process7ed and more fundraising this fall and we also are working our way into Detroit. I also worked in Ypsi this past week at EMU in their housing community garden.
If you hadnt recieved your shirt yet from #eating kickstarter please email me because we have volunteers changing out and I want to make sure that everyone has their awesome comfortable shirt (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Here are some pictures and yes I will do a ama here soon I saw the request probably will do next week. Thank you to the MGobloggers that came out and helped and my team mates too.
The boy in the front was the superstar of the day. He was running around wild not listening when we got there and once he saw us beautify and clean up and weeding he came up and asked if we needed help. And at the end of the day he put on his Michigan Pajamas and came out to say bye.
In the picture also is James Humphries who played for U of M from 1976-1979. GO BLUE
This is the Allgean garden opening:
The EMU garden is looking good.
I am going to my first Michigan home game this year to watch the boys take on the (edit: replace bucknutz with) douce bags . What must do would the board suggest one accomplish on gameday?
Outside of one player, maybe two, Michigan's wide receiving corps is almost a complete unknown heading into fall camp -- which begins Aug. 7 in Ann Arbor.
Tim Kawakami lays in to Jed York over his latest not so subtle digs at Jim Harbaugh and some other negative observations.