fair point that
Here's the Advanced Statistics Schedule Rundown for UM as of the end of Week 12, and despite the Buckeyes intentionally throwing that game against Sparty, the chart is still including a B1G Championship Game since UM still has somewhere in the range of a 10:1 to 4:1 chance to play into it. Iowa, of course, is a lock for Indy even if it dumps the Nebraska game, so they're the de facto opponent. Here's your embiggable chart:
The race in terms of fancy stats has taken a slight turn in M's direction on account on the heels of essentially dominating performance of PSU, which has effectively rekindled the S&P+ romance with M. OSU's debacle didn't help its position, which pretties things up nicely looking into The Game. Of course, the same can't be said for MSU, but overall as of this writing, MSU still sucks. What follows below is a discussion of some of the details and week-to-week fancy-stat trends of M, OSU, MSU, PSU and Iowa.
In the S&P+ ratings, M improved its standing in Offense again over last week's results, moving up one position from #42 to #41, while MSU climbed from #32 to #29. OSU plummeted from #16 to #23, PSU dropped from #66 to #68. On S&P+ Defense, M took an impressive stand against PSU, particularly on the DL, and moved back up from #3 to #2. Putting Taco on the end and moving Hurst over appears to have been the proper remedy in lieu of the approach attempted at IU – so this bodes well for The Game. Moreover, the rating improved by 0.3 points from 12.0 to 11.7. Likewise, the PSU & MSU defensive units continued to register improvements. PSU moving up slightly from #13 and #11, and MSU significantly from #35 to #21. OSU dropped one spot from #7 to #8. Overall, M and OSU swapped order in the rankings: M now at #4, and OSU at #5, with the spread opening once again by 2.0 points to M -3.8. Despite yet another win, Iowa dropped again in overall S&P+ rank from #28 to #29, with the net spread vs. M increasing by 0.6 points to M –7.5.
As for the FEI Ratings, it appears M has managed to turn around its retrograde Special Teams play, moving back up from #15 to #14 – but still a far cry from having been #1 just 3 weeks ago. Giving up a blocked punt were probably neutralized by Lewis' fabulous KOR as well as the fumble recovery on the botched fair catch by PSU. The next closest teams are Iowa and OSU at #33 and #40, respectively. As for MSU and PSU Special Teams ... they continue to wallow in the lower echelons.
FEI warmed slightly regarding M's offense, which improved its rating while holding its rank #39, thanks yet again to a gritty, workmanlike performance by Jake Rudock. The running game is what it is, but at least coupled with an array of screen passing schemes and some solid pass protection, it can be sold off enough to make play-action effective. This is a situation where scheme is everything, and it appears by virtue of M having gotten this far on that basis, M's coaching staff are schemers extraordinaire. MSU also held its rank at #19, as did PSU its middling performance, shifting from #75 to #76. OSU meanwihle dropped by a good chunk from #31 to #38 – just one ahead of M! On the other hand, Iowa popped up from #32 to #24, so good for them. Wouldn't it be interesting to see a matchup of Rudock and C.J. Beathard in the B1GCG?
Carrying on with the trend from last week, the most alarming aspect here is the FEI Defensive numbers, which sees M continue retrograde movement from #7 to #11, while OSU stepped up from #11 to #8 – a remarkable reversal. MSU also popped up from #31 to #24 however, PSU and Iowa's defenses continued to slip from #14 and #36 to #17 and #44, respectively. As such, the FEI and S&P+ characteristics for offense and defense are largely congruent.
FEI Overall rankings show M held steady at #10, while OSU gave MSU the #6 spot while retreating to #9. PSU continues to wallow in mediocrity, sliding back from #48 to #51, and Iowa slipped a good bit from #19 to #24.
Rolling the S&P+ and FEI numbers together, Connelly & Fremeau come up with the F/+ Combined Ratings, in which M swaps places with OSU, moving into the #5 spot, while OSU drops down to #6. MSU advances significantly from #15 to #10, but is still not as highly regarded as two teams from whom they've managed to steal games. PSU drops from #36 to #40, while Iowa continued its decline as well from #23 to #24.
Last but not least are the Football Power Index (FPI) ratings from ESPN. Here as well M reversed last weeks trend, moving up by 0.5 points from #17 to #16, while OSU held onto its CFP placement at #4, but with a 1.0 point lower score. As with S&P+, the total spread moved 1.5 points in M's favor from M +3.7 to +2.2, not a bad trend going into The Game! What's more, the spread between MSU and PSU, at MSU –5.4, is also within one score. Now, if Hackenberg can just get enough time to put a deep ball in the seam between MSU's safeties, they might still do what OSU did not.
Yours in football, and Go Blue!
Nothing too unexpected here, but it sounds like Cook is going to be a game time decision for sparty.
Assuming that we take care of business against Ohio State, this could be the difference between us making a trip to the BigTen Championship game or not. If Cook plays, I think that sparty beats PSU pretty handily. Without Cook, however, PSU's solid defensive front is likely to really rattle MSU's inexperienced QBs, which could lead to a PSU win.
after a long hiatus, got a chance to put one of these together this week. long story short is that my boss sits a couple desks behind me know, so its been a little complicated logistically...
in past years, when enthusiasm is down, so is interest in this feature, based on scribd's data. i think enthusaism is up a bit this year... let me know if there are any things that need to be changed, might have a chance to get to it this week.
hoping to be a little more on top of this for the next games and next season, so if you have any suggestions about other information to include, i can see what i can do.
For those who follow recruiting but haven't listened to the front page replay here is a summary of comments ahead of a big recruiting weekend.
First most imporant - UM has confirmed to Lorenz 27 is the size of the class. Subtraction and addition will get UM there. (Most of us expected 28).
EDIT 4 PM - Lorenz and Ace just put in crystal ballz for Elliott to UM.
- If it was today it would be GA or TN. Delaying to NSD only helps Michigan which is a dark horse. Peppers utilization is a draw - not quite the player Peppers is but not too far away.
- Long time leader with UM. Went to dinner with Drevno and entire family incl Drevno mom. Loves UM. With 2 guards already in class, UM would prefer another tackle aka Jean Delance. If UM gave green light to Davis Lorenz think he would commit but trying for Delance for now. (Delance rescheduled this weekend's official due to his team advancing in playoffs). Bottom line: If UM wants him, he is coming. Of course risk is slow ball and get neither at end.
Dontavious Jackson + Chris Brown (HS teammates)
- Both had come up here for a 4 day unofficial in spring. Brown not as highly rated but UM likes his game - could play CB or S. With Brown it's UM or Texas.
- Jackson's recruitment is more national of a battle but Texas vs Michigan might be the battle here too. Texas struggles have helped UM with these 2 kids as well as others.
Pie Young, Velus Jones, Dylan Crawford
- Lorenz expects wr recruiting to play out over time as UM wants Crawford. (Oregon heavy in mix as Crawford's "dream offer") Pie Young would commit if green lighted. Still a tiny chance for Corley but most think MSU. (announces Dec 8th). McDoom is sort of a backup plan and is basically a Kentucky guy at this point. All indications are Velus Jones won't sign with USC.
- If they feel Crawford is not coming, Pie Young would appear to be the guy but that was my take because Lorenz didnt talk much about McDoom or Jones other than their status with other teams.
- Crawford is the domino.
[Edit - per jack daniels below "Sam Webb thinks McDoom is at the top of Michigan's board with Crawford, but that they won't wait on those two if it meant turning away Young or Jones."]
- Hill has been to UM 5x this season, hasnt been to PSU once (?). "A matter of time...but how much time?" when he picks Michigan. Lots of head scratching my analysts why it hasn't happened yet. No idea when.
- A flip is "very possible". Not expecting it this weekend. Lorenz is close to flipping him in crystal ball to UM. Reuben Jones has been in his ear constantly about how great atmosphere up here.
- Terrance Davis teammate Anthony McFarland is an elite elite elite (did I mention elite?) 5 star running back who will be here this weekend; Georgia leads but obviously one UM wants. This guy would be the "missing piece" for UM - crazy speed AND vision.
- DT Fred Hansard continues the pipeline of great DTs out of NJ; Lorenz says NJ has 5 legit DTs in 2017 (4 stars). Pretty wide open - PSU, OSU, UCLA... UM in mix.
- LB Drew Singleton - Paramus Catholic pipeline, top 150 LB - UM has a "significant" lead.
- CB Ambry Thomas out of King. Most "Jourdan Lewis" type player Lorenz has seen of late - Lorenz loves this kid. UM in "decent shape" because OSU has already taken 4 2017 DBs. MSU heavy in mix.
- Peters, Bredeson, Mitchell are your 3 main "recruiters" in this class to fellow 2016ers.
Jordan Elliott, Bush Jr, Delance will now be here Dec 11th for official due to playoff games for their HS. Slight disappointment for staff as obviously being in this environment would be great. as staff wants these 32.
- UM's top 3 DL targets are: Gary, Camp, Elliott.
- Expects a committment this weekend but just saying that because so many players out there who like UM will be here. He has no inside info with any names - just a probability thing.
Kingston Davis talk
- Lorenz still thinks he ends up at UM. Michigan loves him much more than scouting services and wants him bad. He is a Harbaugh type back through and through.
Decided to upload the Hate Week wallpaper I made. Hopefully some will enjoy.
Direct link: http://i66.tinypic.com/n65ac8.jpg