Tennessee is not recruiting well just because they got 18 dudes
Another quick update on recruiting for you, this time with instate DT Danny O'Brien. Danny currently holds offers from Michigan, MSU, Tennessee, and Syracuse. It's safe to say that his offer list will continue to grow as time goes on.
Not too long ago O'Brien had said that Tennessee and Michigan were his top two choices. He talked about where he's at now, and how did in the combine this weekend.
The combine went really well. There was a lot of kids under the radar, but there was some good talent there. Exposure at these events is always good, and I tried a few new moves I've been working on. I think I did well in the 1 on 1's. Recruiting right now is getting crazy, I'm just letting everything play out and talking to all the coaches. I'll probably make my decision early in the season or at the end of it, I'm not sure.
O'Brien also told me about where he's at with his leader and top schools.
I'll probably only take 3 or 4 official visits, I don't think I'll take all of them. I have Tennessee as my favorite right now, and then everyone else is pretty much even. Michigan hasn't dropped or fallen back, I just don't know the coaches that well. I haven't gotten to really talk with them yet. I'll be up there in the spring either for the spring game or junior day.
The other topic as of late has been how Matt Godin's offer will affect Danny. O'Brien and Godin are best friends, and he talked about what that would mean with his recruitment.
I mean, yeah him having a Michigan offer that has some impact on me. We've always said it would be a dream to play school together, it's something that we've talked about a lot. If it happens, it happens, we're not going to try to force it.
O'Brien is a key piece to Michigan's recruiting efforts. It will be interesting to see how schools move up and down his list, and if Michigan can overtake Tennessee in the end.
Matt Godin also just received an offer from Michigan just now.
I just got offered by Michigan. I called Coach Montgomery, and then talked to Coach Mattison. He said they reviewed my film and I have an offer from the University of Michigan. This is definitely a dream offer, I'm pretty excited. I'm going to wait and think things through before I make my decision, I'm going to visit up there this week and talk to the coaches more.
This is a big offer for both Matt and Danny. We'll see what happens from here.
Most of you know that I live in Arizona, which unfortunately means I'm not at the Best of the Midwest combine right now. I'll have some updates from players after the combine is over, most likely in the Weekly Update on Monday.
I did catch up with Chicago OL Jordan Diamond, who is not competing in the event. He took this opportunity to go up to Ann Arbor with 2011 Michigan signee OL Chris Bryant, and his current teammate 2012 QB Robert Gregory.
Diamond has taken a few visits to Michigan already, so this trip was to familiarize himself with the new coaching staff, and the players.
We went up there yesterday; I met just about everybody. We talked to Coach Hoke, Coach Heck(linski), Funk, so it was cool. Coach Funk was telling me that they're light on the offensive line, they only have around 11 scholarship guys so I would have a good chance to play early. I was trying to build some comfort with them, get to know them, so it was good. The one thing I did get to see that was new was I got to see the players working out. That was good for me to see how they work out, and what they do.
The coaches are seemingly easy to get along with, and Michigan's current players have somewhat been the unsung heroes when it comes to recruiting. The way the players interact with each other, and how they present themselves to recruits has been a popular topic in interviews. The same was true with Jordan.
We got to hang out with a lot of the players this time, which was cool. There's a lot of good people up there. We hung out with Taylor (Lewan), met a few linebackers, they were all cool. Taylor's a pretty funny guy, it was great.
In case you're wondering, yes Taylor Lewan showed off his mustache tattoo, which always seems to be a hit. If you haven't seen it, you can check it out here.
Well as many of you know, this weekend michigan held the best of the midwest showcase. I was kind of half expecting to see multiple offer threads. I'm guessing were going to get a huge update when this weekend wraps up. On another note, I'm not much of a twitter follower but any word from jarrod wilson about how his unoffical went this weekend. It seems like a lot of recruits like to tweet about everything so maybe thats a good thing for my recruiting addiction. Well thank you for any information that is out there.
There has been some squirming lately about the potential college choices of some of our top in-state talent in the class of 2012. I, personally, hate the idea of losing out on the best Michigan high schoolers, and some have been predicting doom for the program if we aren't able to secure the likes of Ross, Jenkins-Stone, and Richardson this year. Jon Chait over on Rivals has laid the gauntlet, suggesting that this recruiting cycle will determine the destiny of the program for the foreseeable future (how great is it, by the way, that Jon Chait, a world-class writer and social commentator, contributes to our piddly Rivals site?).
Facts, data, and stuff
In response to the anxiety, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the college-selection fate of Michigan's top H.S. talent over the course of the past ten years. Using Rivals recruiting rankings, I compiled data for all the 4- and 5-star recruits out of the state of Michigan since Rivals launched their rankings in 2002. In the ten recruiting classes between then and now, there have been 76 such recruits out of Michigan high schools. That’s an average of seven or eight top-end athletes per year, and most of these recruits are regional—if not national—targets. Now, Michigan does not pursue every four-star athlete in the state, and there is less regional and national attention for some four-star players versus others. However, Rivals rankings are a close approximation for identifying the top in-state talent in any given year.
What fate befell Quincy Landingham?
The data show that, of the 76 top recruits from 2002-2011, 28 (or 37%) chose to play for U-M. Fewer than half of the top high-school players opted for the Maize and Blue. Our biggest competition, as you may expect, was Michigan State, which reeled in 24 (32%) of all 4- and 5-star players. Another 24 of these players went out of state, with Penn State being the most popular destination (four players), followed by Purdue and Ohio State (three players each). Tennessee and USC are the only other schools to sign more than one top state-of-Michigan recruit during this period (Landingham, out of Bloomfield Hills Lahser in 2007, is the only four-star guy to choose Wisconsin).
There has been some variation from year to year in U-M’s success in securing top in-state talent. Some attribute this variation to the head coach’s recruiting prowess, our on-field success, or the historical relationship between recruits’ high schools and U-M. The table below shows the college destination of top in-state talent by year from 2002 to 2011.
A few things stand out from the data. U-M has typically been able to pull in roughly half of the top in-state recruits in any given year, but got hammered in 2010, 2009, and especially 2007, a year in which the state was loaded with top-end talent. The former two classes were Rodriguez’s first two full classes and the latter 2007 class was Carr’s final full class. The 2010 and 2009 classes followed losing seasons. The 2007 class followed an excellent season, capped by one of the most high-profile games in Michigan football history. Only two of the 13 best in-state players seemed to care.
And your point is?
Few would argue that we don't need to bring in the best in-state recruits in order to achieve a high level of play. However, even during the “stable” years of the program in the early part of the decade, U-M still lost out on roughly half of the top in-state recruits on an annual basis (save 2005, a weak year talent-wise in which U-M pulled in all three 4/5 stars). Another semi-myth that the data dispel is that Ohio State has been making major inroads on state-of-Michigan talent. Ohio State has signed three total Michigan 4/5 stars during the past ten years: Gholston in 2004, Taurian Washington (meh) in 2007, and James Jackson (meh) in 2009. That record hardly constitutes an impending coup.
MichiganState is by far the biggest threat in stealing in-state talent, and one could view the last three recruiting cycles as disturbing in that regard, as MSU has signed 12 of the top recruits to our six. The Ohio States, Penn States, and USCs are much smaller threats.
Of course, U-M recruits nationally, and thus has a distinct advantage over MSU in overall recruiting. But if we want to dominate in-state recruiting, MSU has been our biggest historical obstacle. Not pulling in Ross, Jenkins-Stone, and Richardson this year would be wrenching. Precedent suggests that it may not spell doom for Michigan football, but it sure would feel goddam good.