chance of bowl: 13.6%
So I just got to thinking about this and want to know what the rest of the MGoCommunity thinks as well: out of all the players currently on Michigan's roster (besides Denard and Mike Martin*), who do you think has the potential to win the Maxwell Award (offensive POTY) and the Bednarik Award (defensive POTY)? It doesn't have to be someone to win it this year, since we're talking potential, just someone on the current roster to win his respective award before he graduates.
Offense - Devin Gardner (I think he's the logical choice after Denard. Plus, this award has been heavily dominated by QB's lately.)
Defense - Craig Roh (I'm going with history here. It's typically a linebacker or defensive lineman who wins the award and Roh fits right in there. BTW, any idea who was the last defensive back to win the award?)
*I know, I know. How can you call the sun green? The conversation just isn't very fun if you don't take those two out of it.
Yesterday I did some quick research on an improved red zone efficiency metric, which generated some discussion on other potential ways to look at a team's offensive productivity. One of the suggestions that immediately intrigued me was points per possession (thanks Gene). This metric is becoming more and more popular in basketball; I'm sure several of us have read a decent amount on this from Pomeroy, Gasaway (formerly Big Ten Wonk), etc., as Brian references their tempo-free stats on occasion. Dylan at UMHoops uses them as well, for those of you who follow (if you don't, you should).
Points per possession would seem like a pretty easy number to come up with. Well, total points scored is easy to find, but number of possessions... not so much (if anybody has a source for this data, I'd love it if you would share). To get there, I looked at all possible ways that a possession can come to an end (once again drawing on things learned from Pomeroy and Gasaway): Punt, Turnover (downs, int, fumble), Score (and thus a kickoff). So to determine total possessions, I used:
Punts + Turnovers + Kickoffs - Number of Games (each team has one kickoff per game that was not the result of a possession).
There are still some flaws with the above:
- I currently have no way to account for a possession that ends at the end of a half.
- A muffed and lost punt (or a Gordon/Vinopal special: pick -> lost fumble) will show up as a possession (turnover), but these probably shouldn't be taken into account when considering offensive efficiency.
- Points scored without the offense's involvement (pick-six, punt/kick return etc) should not count towards offensive efficiency. I am not sure whether or not the NCAA's "Team Scoring Offense -- Total Points" adjusts for this or not.
I welcome any suggestions or further critique.
(And since this is MGoBlog) Well, that's a lot of words, how about a...
|Rank||Team||Kickoffs||Games||Punts||Turnovers||Possessions||Points||Points Per Possession|
|28||North Carolina St.||28||4||20||6||50||151||3.02|
|31||San Diego St.||30||4||18||7||51||153||3.00|
|111||New Mexico St.||11||3||22||4||34||47||1.38|
|119||San Jose St.||12||4||29||8||45||36||0.80|
Michigan is near the top of the list (6th); this is no surprise. Also near(er) the top and of interest to some folks around these parts is Stanford (2nd), along with this week's opponent, Indiana (3rd), and the Buckeyes (4th).
I would love it if this sort of statistic would eventually make its way into the "mainstream." Again, it seems like basketball is leading the charge for tempo-free stats, but there's no reason that we can't look at it for football as well. Perhaps we could lay this up against the dreaded time of possession stat and look for correlation -- or lack thereof. I also think it would be an interesting metric to use along with the work that The Mathlete has done -- we could start to replace some of the assumptions (Top 20 offense, average defense, etc) with data.
As I said above, please feel free to rip this apart and tell me that I'm a flaming idiot, or offer suggestions, critiques, ways to improve.
Note: All original data for the above was collected here:
Let's do something that's NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE (see tag) and predict the volatile defense next year. With the return of Woolfolk, the uncertainty of where to place Cam and the megacluster at Spur it seems like the possibilities are endless. In writing this list, for some reason I felt pretty good about next year. I sense a big jump upcoming. I'm leaving out the next year's recruiting class because it is uncertain.
NT: Martin (please God stay) / Campbell
DT/DE: Black / ummm Watson? Wilkins?
DE: RVB / ...Paskorz?
MLB: Demens / JBFitz or Bell
OLB: Roh / Herron (edited out MJones, moved to other OLB)
OLB: Cam Gordon or MRob or MJones / Hawthorne
Spur: Prison Abs or Carvin or Cam Gordon or MRob / Furman
Bandit: Kovacs / one of the Spur battle royale losers
Corner: Floyd / Cullen
Corner: Avery / Talbott
FS: Woolfolk / Vinopal or CB position switcher
I guess the main things I wanna do is get speed at FS - Woolfolk or a former CB - and care less about big hitters back there. It'd be nice if Cam could bulk up and compete with MRob for Mouton's position - I know neither are slated for that spot but I like a pretty fast yet super aggressive and big hitter to occupy that spot. I'm not a fan of Kovacs to MLB and would prefer to keep him as the run stuffing safety. The DL is....pretty thin. If Martin leaves it's not going to be pretty.
Yeah, there's not much to talk about leading up to Indiana. What say you?
Welcome to week five, in which I go out of my way not to pick on the MAC, even knowing full well there's an EMU v Ohio game, as well as a BGSU v Buffalo matchup.
Last Week's Recap
The state of New Mexico continues to look for its first win, as both New Mexico and New Mexico State lost. New Mexico actually had more time of possession than UNLV in a 45-10 loss, further evidence as to how useless that stat is. New Mexico managed to shoot themselves in the foot with 9 penalties and 3 turnovers, helping to make up for UNLV's 1/11 third down conversion rate. Anybody know how you score 45 points, have 19 first downs, and still go 1 for 11 on third down?
Moving on, Kansas went on to prove there's bad teams, then there's really bad teams, by beating New Mexico State in a game where Kansas only punted twice and returned a kickoff 96 yards for a TD.
Highlighting "Big Ten Cupcake Blowout Week" was OSU and EMU. The Buckeyes refused to call off the dogs in a futile attempt to get the national #1 and scored 21 in the fourth quarter. You stay classy, Ohio.
Starting off is the "Tang Presents: The Really Orange Bowl" featuring Miami versus Clemson. Not that this is a bad game, but it will feature more orange than the first week of hunting season. Virginia Tech and Tennessee will play to see who plays for the title.
The "How The Mighty Have Fallen" game is Colorado versus Georgia. No telling if both teams will swap coaches at half-time and tell the fans "There, happy now?" Georgia lost to Mississippi State last week, and Colorado took a week off after the road-trip to Hawaii. At least they beat Hawaii, I guess. It's in Boulder as well, so maybe the altitude (and weed) will have some effect on Georgia; it's not the "Mile High City" for nothing. And yes, since I'm in Denver, I'm well aware that Boulder's actual altitude is 5,430 feet. We put altitude on our city signs in place of population.
The "Travelocity Pointless Road Trip" game is Idaho visiting scenic Kalamazoo to play Western Michigan. Let's hope it's a home-and-home so the Broncos get to see Moscow, Idaho. Western has beaten Nicholls State, and Idaho is coming off a loss to CSU. At least take them to Bell's for a beer for making the trip. Unless they're Mormon, in which case never mind.
I haven't seen this posted yet, but Lloyd and Izzo are hosting a tailgate on the Friday before the MSU game to benefit C.S. Mott Children's Hospital.
I am pasting the email invite that I received below. Sorry if the formatting is a bit off, as I am not the most computer savvy person.
Lloyd Carr & Tom Izzo Invite You to Attend
Please join us at our tailgate for one of this season’s most anticipated college football games, as we partner for a great cause – children’s health. Whether you bleed blue or green, your generous gift will support the new University of Michigan C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital and Michigan Congenital Heart Center.
We look forward to celebrating this exciting rivalry with you – thank you for joining an incredible network of Michigan and Michigan State alumni, friends and fans in making a difference for all Michigan kids.
Please register today.
If you have questions or need more information about the event, please call 734.998.7313.
Copyright 2010 The Regents of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
After watching Nevada against Cal a few weeks ago and then UCLA torching the longhorns this past weekend, i think the pistol could be a good alternative to our usual 3 and 4 wide shotgun sets. We have had trouble at times running the ball with our running backs consistently. The pistol provides the downhill running of lloyd carr era, but also would allow Denard the space he needs only being 5'11 to see over the line a bit better on passing plays. I think it would be interesting to see our personnel use it as a package from time to time.