"You can't make me," Hoke said. "You're not my father."
[Ed.: Bump. This makes sense to me: Michigan should mostly dump special teams once it gets across midfield.]
As Brian highlighted in the UMass round-up, maybe forgoing the punt altogether might not be such a bad decision. He noted my earlier look at the the topic and I wanted to pull it back and revisit and refine some of the work.
I looked at the years 2004-2009 and only looked at the top 20 rated offenses for each year. This study assumes that Michigan’s offense this year will be at a top 20 caliber and provides a broad enough definition of greatness that there is a good sample size. I did not distinguish what type of offense (Texas Tech Air Raid vs Georgia Tech triple option vs spread and shred) was used to get into the top 20. I will detail more assumptions as they are applicable along the way. In place of fourth down conversion percentages I used third down conversion percentage since the data pool is much larger and covers a wider variety of opponent levels. Since the thought process on a third down and fourth downs are roughly the same in most all (for now, anyway) situations, it seems reasonable to use the third down numbers.
Time for a you know what…
Assumptions: Top 20 offense, average defense, average punt game, average field goal kicker.
Based on these assumptions, except for long yardage, the punter should grab a seat once the offense crosses midfield. On your own side of the field the decision still makes sense starting around the 30 for shorter yardage situations and becomes more viable for longer yardage as you cross further down the field. Field goals become practical with 4+ yards to gain and only from about the 5-25 yard lines.
There are two big advantages a potent offense has that make 4th down tries more logical. The first is that they have more to gain by success. With a limited number of drives in a given game, why give them away for free? The second is that they are more likely to make them. Good offenses are more likely to be in better position on fourth down and more likely to make it. Here is a chart of great offenses fourth down conversions compared with all offenses. The right hand column was the one used for the above chart.
|To Go||All Teams||Great Off|
It’s not a huge advantage on any one given down, but Top 20 offenses convert the same opportunities about 2-3 percentage points more often than the average offense. Note: the rate of conversion for great offenses was much higher in the original analysis and is part of the reason the chart isn’t quite as go for it as the original.
But we don’t have an average <blank>
<blank> = Kicker
Let’s start with the kicking game, which is currently 5 points below average on the season and rated third worst in the country after the first three weeks.
Assumptions: Top 20 offense, average defense, average punt game, below average field goal kicker (FG make odds are reduced by 25% everywhere on the field).
The decisions near midfield obviously aren’t changed but now attempting a field goal on 4th and 5-9 from inside the 25 is no longer the most valuable option.
<blank> = Punter
I know it hasn’t been the most Zoltanic of starts for Will Hagerup, but at this point if he can hold onto the snap, there is no point in adjusting him to below average, even if he isn’t an advantage at this point.
<blank> = Defense
This is the one that seems a bit counterintuitive and Brian and I disagree on. I say that the strength or weakness of your defense is irrelevant to your offensive decision on whether or not try a fourth down conversion. My belief that it is irrelevant is based on this chart.
Great defense obviously give up fewer points than bad defenses but the key point is that the difference between a great defense and a bad defense is consistent up and down the field. Giving the opponent a first down at midfield isn’t a guarantee of a touchdown even with a bad defense and isn’t a guarantee that pinning an opponent deep against a great defense will keep the other team off the board. In fact, the gap between the two is about .25 points per first and 10 all the way from the 1 to the 90. If this is true, then the ability of the defense is irrelevant to the offense’s decision to go for it. For that to be the case, there would have to be evidence that the difference between a good defense and a bad defense changes at different points on the field.
So what does all this mean
If Michigan can maintain their feverish offensive pace this year and fail to find an adequate kicker, I think their decision set in all but late game score specific situations should look something like this:
As I noted previously, if you buy into this mentality, it opens up another opportunity, changing your early down play calling. If your four down strategy has changed, so should your down by down playcalling. It may become more viable to risk a wasted down with deep ball knowing that you have an extra, or it might just make sense to keep the ball short in the air and on the ground knowing that over four plays instead of three the likelihood of getting the yardages greatly increases so play to have the shortest possible fourth down attempt if you don’t convert before that.
Recently used Denard Robinson as subject matter in an Art Class, and thought I'd share it with all of my MGoFriends. I purposely used wide, wet, blurry strokes for everything BUT Denard to imply his speed and grace. And also, because nobody cares about the UConn players gettin' toasted to the left.
Later today I might divulge a bit more on its creation. And maybe donate to the Cook household. Enjoy!
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Turns out, the Bobcat had it in for the Buckeye all along. "It was actually my whole plan to tackle Brutus when I tried out to be mascot," said Brandon Hanning, formerly known as Ohio University's Rufus Bobcat. "I tried out about a year ago, and the whole reason I tried out was so I could come up here to Ohio State and tackle Brutus."http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5596131 He tells of how his plan went to perfection, and how he'd do it again. He may be my hero.
Everything in a game can be reviewed all except a penalty. Do you think we'll ever see the day that major penalties (all but offsides and holding) can be reviewed? Good or bad calls make just as much if not more impact than a catch or a ball spot..
Just got hit with a DUI...
Sad to see but from what I can remember hearing this was not an isolated incident while he was in A2.
The first thing that has to go in this post is that I would love it if MGoPodcast returned. I listened to every single MGoPodcast last year, sometimes I slept with them playing in my ears.
Now that we have that out of the way, let's make the main thing the main thing. Does anybody listen to good podcasts that are entirely or primarily about college football?
I listened to EDSBS Live when Brian was on it, and then listened to it again last week. It's not bad, but it's not great either. Spencer is hard to hear, and it is still sports talk radio even if it is 100 times better than the sports talk radio actually on the radio. Despite these shortcomings, I will probably listen to some future episodes. Especially if Big Boutros calls in again.
Are there any others out there worth listening to? If you follow an awesome podcast that's not about college football, I wouldn't mind hearing about it (even though that's off-topic).