Okay, now that I've got your attention... this really isn't just about a tee shirt, and it's certainly not about me.
Cancer fighter. Source of inspiration. Devoted Father. Wolverine.
Most of you all know his story by now. Diagnosed with Multiple Myeloma at a very rare early age, Phil has made a choice to aggressively fight this thing with a pride and passion only a former Wolverine could muster. Spend some time on his blog, and I'm sure you'll be more appreciative of your own family and life this weekend.
Some of you may already know that Phil is an honorary captain for tomorrow's game. Look for him to be featured in the first quarter, and I almost dare you not to stand at your feet for this courageous guy. But, perhaps you feel compelled to help, and would like to do more. Well, you can!
Phil and his foundation CancerKicker.org/DomiNATION are hosting a TAILGATE event tomorrow morning/afternoon to raise awareness and (hopefully) funds to help fight Multiple Myeloma at UM. There'll be balloons, bracelets and other items there, including a t-shirt I designed in Phil's honor:
To my knowledge these shirts will be available for purchase, although they're sure to go quickly. If you want one stop by, or if you just want to help, Phil's team, led by his sister Brooke, are always looking for more volunteers to pitch a hand. If you'd like to get involved, the team offered this information:
They're meeting at 6am on the north end of the golf course, and hopefully looking to get a prime spot in the first row. Their spot will feature maroon balloons with 'MM' on them. And their itinerary is as follows:
- :: Cold Breakfast & Hot Coffee (you do not need to show up at )
- :: MM domiNATION Outreach Instructions (Teams pick up maps, bracelets and shirts)
- :: Pep talk from Phil Brabbs
- 11:00-1:00/30 :: MM domiNATION Outreach
- :: Tailgate (food and drinks provided)
- * :: MSU vs UM Game (Phil will be honored as the Honorary Captain in the 1st Quarter)
- :: Post-game Tailgate (food and drinks provided)
- *if you aren't going to the game, you are welcome to hang out and watch the game from the tailgate
My only wish is that I could be there!! But I hope to hear that you all stop by, and do your part in helping Phil fight the good fight not only for himself, but for all of the other patients sharing his diagnosis at UM and across the globe. Do your part to help KICK CANCER!
So I am in the camp that the MSU game is important, but it doesn't make or break the season. Every game is important. We want UofM to win every single one. But raising any single game to the status of make or break is a mistake. This isn't rocket science. For DB, it is "the entire body of work" that matters.
Let's be real. At the beginning of the season, if you were told, "Michigan will win a minimum of seven games and go to a bowl game," what would you have thought? You would have been thrilled!
The reality is that win or lose vs. MSU, Michigan is going to win at least three more games, and quite possibly could win more. That is a huge improvement over 2009. Putting all your eggs in the "State is a must-win game" is crazy. No, it is foolish.
Michigan is returning to prominence. It is just a matter of how soon. MSU fans know this, which is why the game is so important to them this year. They know that the tide is turning, and that things are returning to their natural state of existence.
Part of the reason State fans are so obnoxious is because of their inferiority complex. Because they know that they just haven't been as good as UofM. This extends to the team, and to the entire university. The only place they are strong is in areas Michigan doesn't even focus (i.e., animal and agricultural science.)
But there is something else at play. There are some Michigan fans who have over the years been insufferable jerks. You know who you are. This has led to the behavior of some of the State fans. For my two cents, remember this once Michigan returns to prominence. Don't act the way State fans are acting now. You're above that.
One last thing. If you really believe that Michigan has returned, put your money where your mouth is. I have a "friendly wager" with a couple of MSU grads. I would hope that those of you living in Michigan have the cajones to do the same.
Didn't see this posted yet. Sorry if I missed it, but a very well written article as per usual by Jonathan Chait. It helps put things in perspective, if like me, you haven't gotten a good night sleep all week and tend to freak out or get increasingly angry with each new local article portraying MSU as good and U of M as evil.
right now has 128 yards in the air w/ a td, and 241 on the ground w/ 4 tds.
|Kicking Team Position||42|
|Kicking Team Probability||25%|
|Kicking Team Expected Pts From Own 42||2.71|
|Kicking Team Net Expected Pts||.68|
|Receiving Team Position (Onside)||58|
|Receiving Team Probability (Onside)||75%|
|Receiving Team Expected Pts From Opp 42||3.47|
|Receiving Team Net Expected Pts||2.60|
|Kicking Team Expected Pts (Normal)||0|
|Receiving Team Position (Normal)||25|
|Receiving Team Probability (Normal)||100%|
|Receiving Team Expected Pts From Own 25||1.90|
|Kicking Team Net Expected Pts (Onside) = .68-2.60||-1.93|
|Kicking Team Net Expected Pts (Normal)||-1.90|
|Advantage of Normal||.03|
(please allow for rounding adjustments)
So, yeah. That works a lot better in Excel, but hopefully you get the point.
A few other scenarios from Excel:
- If the kicking team has a 26% chance of recovery, as Brian cites in his post, there is no advantage to a deep kick (-1.90 expected points onside, -1.90 expected points normal).
- If the kicking team has a 25% chance of recovery, but the normal kick results in a drive starting at the receiving team's own 32 (maybe more likely with our kickers), there is a predicted .30 point advantage (-1.93 vs. -2.23) for an onside kick.
One more thing: as per the borrowed data, this assumes an average offense and defense (I've employed a DENARD Constant in my spreadsheet, but it is difficult to represent here).
In conclusion, this is as much an appeal to The Mathlete (and others) as it is an effort at meaningful contribution. I have no background in math or statistics, so if there are massive logical flaws in the above, please feel free to rip me in the comments.