spoiler alert: i linked this
Regression to the Mean
What do you get when you have a game between two crappy conferences, one which comes into the game posting an 8-0 record and the top CPR among all conferences, and another that comes in as the only conference not to log a non-conference win over the opening weekend?
Yaaay, law of averages.
The Big East lost their clean sheet on Friday night, as Louisville fell to the mighty Golden Panthers of Florida International. To the Panthers' credit they have started the season 2-0, even though the Sun Belt had yet to win an interconference game. Their opening game was against conference foe, North Texas - the Texas team which is least likely to start talking about how pretty it is.
The last conference to post a perfect resume for 2011 fell only hours later. The Big 12 fought hard for their perfect record, with Arizona State needing overtime to beat Mizzou and break the streak of 11-0. This is not a big deal for the Big 12, though, as it is not like they're going to disintegrate the conference because of the loss...
|Conf.||Wk 1||Wk 2||Season||CPR||+ / -|
From the Top
The red-headed stepchild of the BCS. The ACC comes in below both the MWC and CUSA in this weeks table. Talks of the ACC poaching from the Big East should cease, as the Big East actually looks like a stronger conference.
What happens to your CPR when you go 7-5? Nothing, apparently. The B1G stays at number 3 even after developing a subpar record this week. I was tempted to give them +1,000,000 for Michigan's efforts, but that would skew my numbers a bit. Instead, the Big 10 stays at three and watches the top two conferences put some distance between themselves and the pack.
Well, this is kinda akward. The Big 12 this year is like a boyfriend who saw the light a little too late. Yes, they are on their best behavior, but she's totally over you, Big 12. The B12 is leading our CPR at this point, but they're still going to come home at some point and find all their shit on the lawn.
The Big East took a nosedive this week, after leading the FBS in the CPR last week. They drop four spots to number 5 due to a 'meh' 4-4 effort which saw losses to teams such as Vanderbilt and FIU.
CUSA can lay claim to the title 'Best of the Rest'. Their 8-9 record is good enough as 11 of their 17 OOC games have been against BCS conferences. They have posted three wins in those games, with two more coming to other FBS schools.
Don't look now, but EMU is 2-0! Largely due to the Hart influence, no doubt. A heartbreaker in Columbus was very nearly the biggest win the MAC has seen in years. Northern Illinois also lost a close game to Kansas while CMU kept it close throughout most of their game against Kentucky, only to lose 27-13.
A lukewarm 3-2 record which included two wins against FCS schools saw the MWC drop a spot. Their lone win was a 3 point SDSU win over Army.
The Pac 12 rebounded nicely from a disasterous opening week to climb six points in the CPR. They did so with a 6-2 week that saw them become the only conference which has beaten the Big 12.
Undefeated. 8-0. The AFC Southwest. God's gift to ESPN. God's gift to God. The reason I couldn't watch the opening kickoff of the greatest game in the history of the word 'game'. The SEC shot up as the only potential challenger for the CPR crown. At this point, it appears to be a two horse race with the Big 12 narrowly beating the SEC.
The Sun Belt didn't wait until Saturday to post their first win, with FIU beating Louisville on Friday night. The Sun Belt went 4-4 with wins over the MAC, CUSA, Mountain West, and an FCS school. For their part, the Sun Belt has beaten up the fewest cupcakes (sounds like innuendo?), having only played one FCS school.
The WAC has brought up the rear among FBS conferences for the second week in a row. That's what happens when you post a 5-10 record, with only two of those wins over other FBS schools.
Navy posted the only vistory this week as they rolled over Western Kentucky. BYU gave Texas a run, but came up short by a point. Notre Dame was apparently involved in some sort of 'night game' thing.
The FCS was picked on less this week, as they only played 20 games against FBS schools, compared to 36 the week before. They posted as many wins this week as Notre Dame.
I took a shit ton of video from the game last night including Desmond's presentation, the team entrance, the last play, and all the fans singing along to the various songs they played after the game was over. Should have them uploaded to youtube shortly.
Here's my youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/Tigersfan829?feature=mhee
edit: some of them are shaky, sorry about that. I am not the best at holding a camera. Plus I was actually shaking during the Desmond Howard one and I couldn't keep it steady.
[Ed: You know, I was going through my VOAV stuff today and ran across this from Boyz in the Pahokee, which is everything I was going to post, so here's the bump. Still looking for Denard's post-game Sportscenter interview.]
Al Lesar's lede from his column in this morning's South Bend Tribune:
ANN ARBOR, Mich. - Retro jerseys obviously didn’t fit well. Collars were too tight.
With all this discussion of how lucky Michigan was, how brilliant the result was in the face of the mistakes, etc. when will we hear what all the recruits thought of that atmosphere? I'm serious, because after that game I really don't want to hear about the X's and O's, the UFR's or any other analytical acronym. I want to hear about what people thought and felt after experiencing that game.
Thank you Jamiemac for maintaining the proper priority and perspective after that game.
[ED:BISB; Changed title. You aren't Ace, Ace.]
So I made an "Inside the Box Score" post last Sunday and it was reasonably well received, so let's do this again.
First, the link thingy:
Last week, I mentioned that I was going to be paying attention to the 2nd quarter this year, as we routinely lost the 2nd quarter last season. Jamiemac picked up the theme by making the 2nd quarter score one of his prop bets. A quick glance at the box score shows we won the 2nd quarter 7-3, and after the rough first quarter, that was huge in keeping us in the game. Look a little deeper, though, and you'll see that we ended the 1st quarter with Denard's first interception, giving the Irish a short field to start the 2nd quarter. This was a recipe for disaster last year. Instead, with the Irish starting at OUR 39 yard line (you almost don't need a 1st down to get in FG range) our defense stiffened and forced them into a 3 and out. Three plays, 2 yards, after getting 140 yards on 17 plays in the 1st quarter. That stopped their momentum enough to keep us in the game.
Other items of interest:
* Net yards per kickoff: ND 49.3, UofM 45.3. This was much improved over last week when WMU had a 15 yard per kickoff advantage over us. I did go back and watch our first kickoff last week, and it appeared that Woolfolk was playing the deep safety on the kickoff. The guy who is supposed to run down the returner if said returner gets through the first line. If Woolfolk has the best combination of speed and tackling on the team, I can't fault them for playing him there. It really shouldn't be that much of an injury-risk, but this is football, and those things happen. The kickoff disparity COULD HAVE been huge at the end as the Irish started their last drive on their 39, while we started at the 20. I thought it was going to take a miracle to go 80 yards in 23 seconds (after the first incompletion) and that is exactly what Denard and Gallon produced on the 64 yard play. It called to mind the AC play against Indiana. Instead of going Hail Mary, you throw a 20 yarder and get YAC.
* Gallon and Smith, two players who receive more than their fair share of criticism, combined for 4 receptions, 104 yards receiving, and 2 TDs. And they handled the punt and kick returns flawlessly.
* We had 22 players show up on the defensive statistics section, similar to last week. Although a lot of last night's seemed to be special teams or from our turnovers. It was nice to see our leading tackler be a LB, but the next two were safeties. BWC didn't record a tackle, but he showed up in the box score for recovering a fumble, and he showed up in the box score indirectly by forcing an ND holding penalty. Which leads me to this:
* Penalties: ND 9 for 75, UofM 9 for 82. After a 1 penalty game last week, and a good start to last night's game, we started racking up the defensive penalties, some of which were actually earned. I think those refs throwback hats were a size too small, but I'm not one to complain about officials.
* First downs: ND 28, UofM 16. How the F did we win that game? Oh yeah,
* Turnovers: ND 5, UofM 3. Gotta win the TO battle. Apparently, UofM's stat sheet is crediting the Irish with a fumbled kick return on the last play. And,
* Yards per play: ND 7.1, UofM 9.0. I guess you don't need many first downs when you are averaging 30.7 yards per completion. ND was playing break-but-don't-bend. They stuffed our run (except for Denard) and matched up one-on-one with Hemingway, Gallon, and Roundtree. We played a mixture of defenses, sometimes blitzing (ouch on the upcoming RPS numbers) sometimes doubling Floyd, but generally giving different looks. I couldn't keep track of how many times the play clock got down to 1 second for ND. At one point, I screamed at the TV, "Hey REES, you are not Peyton Manning, snap the damn ball." They ended up using a lot of timeouts and I think that helped us out.
* Attendance: 114,804 (yes, they put the attendance in the box score.) I believe that's a record of some sort. While I was watching out here in Southern California, my brother and his wife were rocking with the students in section 29. He reports that the pom-poms sucked, and I'm generally not a fan of the pom-pom, but I think they looked good last night.
* The referee's name (what don't they put in the boxscore?) was T. Tomczyk, the same as my uncle before his last name was Americanized. After last night, I think we can agree, Notre Dame has been Denardized, AGAIN!
WLB starter was true freshman Morgan, with Hawthorne getting legit time too.
But I never saw Herron, or even M. Jones at all.
Injured? Special teams? Suspended?
And before anyone gets all uppity on me, no, I didn't dig through the in-game posts to see if this was discussed....