landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
Even though the first quarter was pretty ugly, the defense’s ability to keep EMU out of the end zone kept the game from ever getting below 30%. Once the offense found its groove in the second quarter, the odds turned around quickly. By the middle of the third quarter, the game was officially out of reach.
One of the requests from last week was to see what the chart would look like based on the relative strengths of the teams. Since the Notre Dame game had a pretty tight spread the chart would be essentially the same as the one you saw, especially in the wild fourth quarter. For last week against EMU, that was a very different story.
The first chart showed EMU’s odds nearing 70% at one point, but that was assuming the teams were of similar skill. That is obviously not the case. To adapt, I have added a second chart that takes the 30.5 point spread and brings that into the game.
For the graph to work, Michigan is spotted the points at the beginning of the game and the value is gradually reduced over the course of the game. At halftime, the 30.5 point spread is calculated at 50% or 15.25 points. The result is a dramatically different and much more realistic chart. When assuming the teams were equal, EMU exceeded a 2/1 advantage at one point. When factoring team strengths in, they didn’t even crack 10%.
Michigan’s rank in opponent adjusted PAN. At this point the opponent adjusted is still fairly weak but it does have some value. Because Michigan is EMU’s first FBS opponent, there is no opponent adjustment and EMU is assumed to be an average-caliber team, which is surely not the case. There will be discrepancies like this for most teams.
Rush Offense: +5, 8th in the nation (Georgia Tech), 1st in Big Ten
Pass Offense: +2, 48th (Baylor), 6th (Wisconsin)
Offensive Field Position: 1.67 expected points/drive, 114th (Ohio (NTO)), 12th (MSU)
Rush Defense: +3!, 17th (LSU), 3rd (Penn St)
Pass Defense: +1, 46th (Illinois), 4th (Illinois)
Total Offense: +7, 21st (Oregon), 3rd (Wisconsin)
Total Defense: +4, 28th (LSU), 4th (Illinois)
Defensive Field Position: 2.19 expected points/drive, 102nd (EMU), 12th (Wisconsin)
Special Teams: –2, 98th (Auburn), 11th (Purdue)
Total: +9, 25th (LSU), 3rd (Wisconsin)
Turnovers: +8, 5th (Wyoming), 1st
I wouldn’t read too much into the rankings at this point as the opponent factor is still very early but it does give some good directional information. It should be noted that when comparing teams to their preseason expectations, Michigan is still ranked in the 50s but when you compare to how they have performed so far this year, the ranking goes into the 20s.
So far the defense has established that it can create opportunities for success, and that’s better than we’ve seen for a while. The offense has held onto decent numbers despite sporadic results. We would all like to see more consistency from the offense but a TD and a three and out are still better than 2 long drives and a couple of FG attempts.
Field position and special teams continue to be major issues and ones that contribute to some of the unexpected positivity in the offensive and defensive numbers. Both units have faced some of the worst field position which has given them a chance at bigger points.
San Diego St Preview
Michigan Rush: +5, 8th
Denard Robinson +4, 4th in QB rushing nationally
Fitzgerald Toussaint +2, 39th ranked RB nationally
SDSU Rush Defense: +1, 47th
Michigan Pass: +2, 48th
Denard Robinson +3, 51st in passing (individual numbers differ from team because sacks are excluded from individual numbers)
SDSU Pass Defense: +4, 23rd
SDSU Rush: +3, 26th
Ronnie Hillman +5, 6th ranked RB
Michigan Rush Defense: +3, 17th
SDSU Pass: +1, 59th
Ryan Lindley, +1, 67th QB (significant drop from last year under Borges when Lindley was +5 and a top 25 QB)
Michigan Pass Defense: +1, 46th
San Diego St hasn’t shown any breakout defensive playmakers so far this season. Jerome Long on the DL has the most plays made with 9 worth 4 points for the defense. Larry Parker leads the secondary with 8 plays for +7 and Jake Fealy is the top linebacker with 7 plays for +5.
Jordan Kovacs ranks third in the nation and is the top non-linebacker in defensive points with +14 on 6 plays. Kenny Demens is 20th with 13 plays made for +6. Hawthorne, Thomas Gordon, RVB and Jibreel Black are the other players with at least 6 plays made.
Michigan Special Teams: –2, 98th
SDSU Special Teams: +0, 64th
It looks like a pretty even matchup when the Aztecs have the ball but Michigan should be able to put some points up, even if they can’t find the higher gear consistently.
I was very surprised to hear on today's Recruiting Roundup that Sam Webb has a gut feeling that Danny O'Brien won't come to Michigan.
He thinks it could come down to Tenn and MSU. With Matt Godin and all the time he has been spending in Ann Arbor, I thought Michigan was the team to beat.
Here goes attempt number three of the season (I did not make a wallpaper for week one because BlueIndy already had it covered here.) I did a couple looks last week and ended up with the bald eagle sitting in a large jail cell looking all dejected. I struggled with taking the nations great bird and portraying him in a negative way.
As I approached this week's wallpaper I had another internal struggle. I had a hard time finding a tasteful way to place the Aztec within the grand scheme of Michigan destroying another mascot/school on the way to a B1G title and top ten finish of the season. Maybe it is the pastor in me that hates to offend. So I gave it a couple days to see if anything less offensive resonated with the creative juices.
I ended up thinking less along the lines of the mascot and more along the lines of this being Brady's last place of residents and how they must have felt about losing their coach. I thought about something along the lines of Coach walking along the intersate heading towards Ann Arbor. I considered him pointing instead of hitch hiking. I ended up with a simple concept of what they must feel like when a coach that they have loved (after all we have quickly grown to love him) just vanished and left town. As I said, it is simple but I am not a photoshop guy with a ton of time. I tried very hard to get a head set in the picture that was just tossed on the ground but I could not get the right depth and lighting/shadowing. This is all I have to offer.
It is still early to talk numbers and which particular positions the staff will be going after. But what the heck. The 2013 class in Michigan is a little weak and that maybe why only three instate offers have been extended. Still plenty of time for things to develop in state, but expect a bigger potion of our class to come from outside Michigan. That being said we're in on some great prospect early :).
Personally, I think we take two QBs in the 2013 class assuming we aren't taking one in 2012. This will build some depth and also foster some competition at the QB position. This maybe a precautionary move by the coaches because of Devin's RS status. Man if he loses a year of eligibility because of series against Bowling Green, I'm gonna be pissed! lol.
OH Pro-style QB Brogan Roback
A lifelong Michigan fan who frequents Michigan home games. Currently has a couple of MAC offers and is hearing from several BCS schools, including Michigan. He has been putting up big numbers for his St.John's team, including a game against OLSM. Looking at his tape, you can clearly see he is not at Shane's level. He has great poise and pocket awareness, but his throwing mechanics (not uncommon for HS prospects) needs work. He is a great athlete who also excels on the hardwood too. Should be a high 3 star/low 4 star. Here is a little interview on Maize N' Blue:
FL OL Larmey Tensil
Offers from UF, FSU, ND, USC early on. His coach is Ed Stokes, a former assistant with Brady Hoke at Ball State. From TOMVH's inside article (leaking a lil info) we're in his top 3, with out an offer which sounds pretty promising. I hope he gets an offer soon. For insiders here is an article:
IL RB Ty Issac
Beast, 6'3 220, very surgical runner but also can make plays after contact. Received his Michigan offer this week, which he is pretty excited about. Has many suitors and the staff will need to make some ground. I think coach Jackson is personally recruiting him. My favourite RB from the Midwest. Here is an article from Sam Webb, couple weeks before his offer:
With the 2012 class filling up, it will give us a head start for 2013. Also, two potential 5 stars to start isn't bad either. Just some of the prospects you should be aware of during the 2013 cycle for those who follow recruiting. If you know anyone else we should know about, share! Also check out the Michigan Thread on 247 when you are in need of recruiting news.
Hi, it's me, putting on my TomVH/Ace hat.
Got a tip from someone close to Jordan Payton that he is "thinking about committing to M" and that the only realistic competition at this point is Oklahoma. Not certain, but if I had to guess I'd say he ends up in a winged helmet. This does not qualify as surprising news--premium sites have had M in the lead for Payton for a while--but it is independent confirmation.
It has already been three weeks of college football season and I have the self mutilation scars tallying every time I thought a game was lost or became frustrated with the Pitbull Dr. Pepper commercials. After spending an afternoon staring at my scars, I realized this habit must stop or else I will be sucking up all the good blood at the hospital for selfish reasons. This past weekend was supposed to be a “healing weekend.” It turned out to be just as frustrating as the past two.
The Eastern Michigan University football team has been compared to a punching bag or even an ugly mannequin used for those loners down in their basements to beat up on after losing their six hour quest of Dungeons and Dragons to install confidence for the next life wasting night full of pizza, funny dice, and no estrogen save in their man breasts from too much pizza and coddling at a young age. I debated whether to even watch this game or to take natural medicine and travel fast as I could to the Medieval Festival in Holly to take in the wonderful colors, music, belly dancing, and a turkey leg the size of Mattison’s head. I decided that in order to keep a weekly diary going it would be in my best interest to stay and watch. I expected an avalanche of offense and a punishment of defense from the get go by our beloved Michigan Wolverines. I soon found myself trying to remember how to tie a slipknot and finding a tall enough place by halftime.
The offense started out anemic and the defense played as if they were on the winning side of the game Tag and trying not to get tagged back. For a while I thought this was some cruel hoax of a uniform swith in the locker rooms so that Mike Hart would be able to coach the Michigan Wolverines incognito. Eastern Michigan manhandled Michigan as their offense stampeded down the field on at least three straight occasions but only coming away with three points from the whole ordeal. Thank the all knowing Spaghetti Monster that this was an inept team that didn’t know how to handle momentum against quality opponents and made buffoons out of themselves on national television. If this were any BIG opponent, our ass would have been grass, and they would have turned it over to the authorities. The Michigan offense was just as putrid as Gorgeous Borges still looks for an offensive strategy besides Denard Left, Denard Right, Denard Center, and Denard Please Fucking Save Us. He still hasn’t found it. MANBAWW FOOTBAWW. Sure Vincent Smith got over 100 yards on various attempts, but again, this is Eastern Michigan School of the Fighting Stuffed Animals. Denards’s throwing seemed to regress as he sailed passes to Tacopants and to Lloyd Brady tailgating outside the stadium.
At halftime I decided it was a bit hyperbolic to hang myself this early in the season. I should save that for Michigan State or Nebraska. I don’t want to waste my finale on a team that my old University President from Pennsylvania who wore plaid sports jackets stepped in for in the past to serve as Emergency President at Eastern. No way. Plaid sports jackets will not be the end of me. I knew Michigan would pull this out from the beginning, but the way in which they started the game was discouraging. Mattison and Gorgeous Borges better take note that an imitation Division III team pushed them around for one whole quarter.
After halftime, Michigan had a fire lit under their ass and the lighter fluid to ignite it was the usual brand, Denard Robinson. The defense also stepped up their game to begin to look respectable, but the rushing attack by the fighting EMU’s still plagued them. Denard galloped his way on his feet, which I am convinced are small unicorns blessed by the Pope. (How else would he always make the Irish look like chumps?) As the scoreboard raced higher for Michigan after unanswered touchdowns quicker than Tyrone Biggums racing higher after stealing a car radio, I still felt a level of disappointment. If Michigan were an ice cream shop going head to head with Baskin-Robbins for the Internationally known Lactose Award for Variety, they would lose 37-1.
Last year Michigan leaned heavily on Denard until he docked in at the end of the season with more bumps, bruises, and injuries than Whitney Hill after a good night out with Bobby. Not only was Denard beat-up by the end of the season, everyone figured out the game plan of a hobbled legged QB trying desperately to save his team from losing and his coach from trying out for Glee. The end result was a predictive offense with a defense that would have won Last Comic Standing and an embarrassing end to the season by being drubbed by Mississippi State 52-14.
The FEAR is afoot again. Whether it is Gorgeous Borges’ fault that he hasn’t tried to implement more offensive strategies using Denard’s threat to open up other plays besides a quick slant and a zone read, or because we are not there offensively with the talent up front and around someone like Denard can be debated until the cows come back to tsio’s many sororities. The defense has improved slightly, but is nowhere near a level accustomed to Michigan’s past or a level that can sustain a season in the Big Ten 2.0. The FEAR is creeping up my leg and beginning to look like a rabid warthog with pieces of kitten flesh dripping from its tusks. The game against Eastern Michigan may have been rewarding in it brought us another win and national ranking, but it also served as a curse in possible false hopes and a déjà vu that is beginning to resemble a Greek tragedy rendition of Groundhog Day. Then again, I’ve been known to worry too much.