talk to caris yo
Synopsis for Turnovers: "Turnovers, yeah, that's ridiculous…. You know, we're not good enough to make mistakes and beat anybody. I told you, everybody that earlier, our team understands that. Especially the ones – you're moving the ball, you're inside the red zone, inside the 15 and you fumble it. And then we kick a field goal and it's about this high [hand gesture about head high] and that gets blocked….And then the penalties, we're our own worst enemy in the first half with the silly penalties. That's just ridiculous and we gotta get that cleaned up." Rich Rodriguez.
M has been –7 in TOM the past 2 games. Turnovers have now reached the point that a winning season (6-6 or better) is in jeopardy! Only 28% of teams with a TOM of –5 or worse had a winning record (basis: all FBS—AQ teams for the past 5 years).
To reiterate: turnovers are NOT primarily due to luck. Turnovers ARE primarily due to poor performance and/or inexperienced players. Turnover margins often increase when the relative experience and skill of the opposing teams are significantly different. Over the next 5 games, M will face 3 teams (Penn State, Illinois, Purdue) with similar (or perhaps less) experience at key positions and 2 teams (Wisconsin, osu) with more experience at key positions. How the turnover battle shakes out will have a major impact on how many of those games Michigan can win. If we can maintain a neutral or positive TOM, all of those games are winnable. If not…….(I will make no comment about the chart on the right. It is what it is.)
BTW, blocked punts, blocked field goals, on-side kick recovered by the opposing team, roughing the kicker penalties, etc. are not considered to be "official" turnovers but have the same effect. I will continue to track these also.
Overall, M declined from +1 TOM to –3 TOM and the national ranking climbed to #79. Turnovers lost are now about the same as an average team but turnovers gained are just 69% of the average team. All TOs, except the last interception by Tate, have occurred at important times during the games.
Synopsis for Special Teams
Another mixed review for special teams. Hagerup in now ranked #28 nationally and ended up with 50.3 average yards per punt and a net of the same 50.3 yards per punt! M's overall net punting includes a couple of pooch punts by Denard and Tate and (amazingly to me) the blocked punt by Hagerup is NOT included in his stats – it is included in the overall team stats for punting. Starting field position for the opposition after our kickoff remains at the 29 yard line (slightly better than average). Broekhuizen had a 38 yard FG blocked that was then returned 37 yards to the M48. He also sent two kickoffs out of bounds (which is really just an 11 yard penalty versus the average starting field position after KOs).
Details for Turnovers:
Here is the Summary by Game. According to the folks at Football Outsiders a first down TO is worth 5 points, second down TO is worth 4.5 points, and a third down TO is worth 4.0 points (regardless of field position!).
The extrapolation is a straight line [Totals] X [13 Total Games / Games Played]. AQ Best and AQ average is over the past 10 years. AQ Best is kind of funky because the team with the "best" in each category is different so the numbers don't add. But it does provide a point of reference.
Here is the detail of each fumble/interception and a comment providing insight if the turnover (or lack thereof) was significant. Note, blocked punts are not considered a turnover and an interception of an extra point is not considered a turnover (player does not get credit for a interception).
Here is the overall summary by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
Details for Special Teams:
Here are the Punting and Kickoff statistics. (Touchbacks are included as –20 yards when determining net yards.)
Remember here are the correlations of TOM to WLM at season's end.
Figured I'd turn this into a regular feature. Just a compilation of stats to show where the team is at, presented without comment. All rankings are national (out of 120 FBS teams) unless otherwise noted.
Overall Rank- 37th (5th in the Big Ten)
SOS Rank - 49th (3rd in the Big Ten)
Scoring - 36.0 p/g (17th)
Rushing - 281.6 yds/g (7th)
Passing - 250.4 yds/g (36th)
Pass Eff - 159.83 (15th)
Total - 532.0 yds/g (3rd)
Sacks Allowed - .43/game (5th)
TFL Allowed - 3.57 (5th)
Turnovers Lost - 12 (67th)
RedZone - 84% (50th)
3rd Down - 46.59% (28th)
4th Down - 80.0% (11th)
Scoring - 28.4 pts/g (82nd)
Rushing - 144.7 yds/g (57th)
Passing - 296.3 yds/g (105th)
Pass Eff - 140.95 (94th)
Total - 441.0 yds/g (105th)
Sacks - 1.43/game (85th)
TFL - 5.71/g (71st)
Turnovers Gained - 9 (83rd)
Red Zone - 88% (93rd)
3rd Down - 42.00% (86th)
4th Down - 64.71% (90th)
Net Punting- 37.68 (42nd)
Net Kicking- ?
Punt Returning - 5.11 yds/ret (100th)
Kick Returning - 19.37 yds/ret (100th)
Punt Return D - 9.4 yds/ret (71st)
Kick Return D - 18.42 yds/ret (11th)
Field Goals - 25.0% (118th)
Penalties- 5.0 pen/g (16th)
Penalty Yards - 51.0 pen yds/g (54th)
TOP - 28:32 (90th)
Denard - Rushing
1096 rush yds (1st); 156.6 rush yds/g (2nd)
Denard - Passing
1319 pass yds (53rd); 188.4 pass yds/g (66th); 9.2 yds/att (9th); 159.1 rating (16th)
9.00 tackles/g (44th)
8.71 tackles/g (53rd)
8.43 tackles/g (63rd)
43.6 avg punt (34th)
(Note: over the past three games, Hagerup has punted 11 times for an average of 48.3 yards. That would be good for 2nd nationally).
Minnesota is 1-6, 0-3 in Big Ten - Offensive coordinator Jeff Horton will serve as interim head coach for the remainder of the season
For those wishing to smack their head on the table just a little harder - Minnesota is not on the remaining schedule for Michigan
He will be paid a buyout of $600,000 stemming from a contract extension he signed in January. The extension ran through the 2013 season but included a lower buyout than his original deal with the school.
Brewster was informed of the decision Sunday morning. Maturi had discussed Brewster's future with university president Robert Bruininks several times in recent weeks, and Bruininks was "in complete agreement with the decision to remove Brewster as head coach," according to a news release.
More information as it becomes available
I am not advocating firing RR (yet), and I am not yelling that the sky is falling in. However, everyone that puts their fingers in their ears and yells, "the team is young, we are improving, I WILL ACCEPT NO CTITICISM OF RR!" is not paying attention. I am really getting frustrated by some of the decisions RR and his staff have been making. We are starting young players, so I can accept that they will have growing pain mistakes, but this is not RR or GERG's second year. Denard Robinson is an elite talent running and throwing on fake run-then-pass plays, but is a mediocre (AT BEST) pocket passer. the last two weeks he has asked Robinson to prove to everyone he can drop back and pass. I also like Vincent Smith, but not running up the middle on a fourth and 1 like last week. This week, he watches Hopkins have success up the middle, puts in Smith and runs the same play. Smith gets crushed, fumbles, and the rest is history. I am not blaming Robisnon or Smith, they are both talented guys doing their best. I do blame RR for stubbornly putting them in positions to fail instead of playing guys to their strengths. Add in the decision to punt last week, the fact that our guys apparently don't know that a blocked FG is live, his blowing of Gardner's redshirt to prove a point for two plays, his handling of press conferences and media in general, and the fact that other teams seem to regularly make better second half adjustments than us, and I am starting to feel like we have been outcoached more times than not, If I turn on RR, it is going to be for his coaching mistakes, not for how many times he loses to MSU or OSU or anyone else for that matter. If he is making poor coaching decisions now, how likely is that to change when the players are seniors, or will they just cover them up better?