spoiler alert: i linked this
Accused of home invasion in the second degree (no one home).
Hearing date is November 16th.
[ED:BISB: Held pending confirmation]
[ED:BISB: Okay, so apparently this is a thing]
1) On a fake field goal when the ball is snapped to the holder whose knee is on the ground, why is the play not blown dead at that point?
2) On a silent snap count when the quarterback pumps his fist, why isn't false start called? Oregon's QB comes to mind here. He almost hits the ground with his fist he pumps it so vigorously.
So another week gone by and another win by the boys in the winged helmets. Hooray for nobody selecting Michigan lower than the Outback! Although now nobody is selecting Michigan in the BCS, either.
The chart shows the MNC and all BCS bowl game projections, followed by the Big Ten bowl game projections.
|Week 11||Rittenberg||Schlabach||Edwards||CBS Sports||CNNSI||BTN||CFN|
|Ok State||Ok State||Oklahoma||Ok State||Oklahoma|
|Fiesta||Nebraska||Oklahoma||Oklahoma||Ok State||Oklahoma||Ok State|
|S Carolina||S Carolina||Georgia||S Carolina||S Carolina||Georgia|
|Gator||Penn St||Penn St||osu||osu||osu||osu||Nebraska|
|Care Care||Iowa||osu||Penn St||Purdue||Penn St||Penn St||Penn St|
|New Era Pinstripe||NW||Iowa||Purdue|
|Kraft Fight Hunger||NW||NW|
|New Mexico Bowl||Iowa|
So yeah, that's a big chart. You can see Michigan bolded throughout. The big changes for U-M are that Dienhart no longer has Michigan in the TicketCity, Rittenberg elevates us from the Insight to the Outback, and Palm drops us from the Fiesta to the Outback. Potential bowl opponents include Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas.
Rittenberg is now the only one to have a Big Ten team earn an at-large BCS berth (Nebraska to the Fiesta). Last week, Rittenberg had msu-Rose and Wisco-Sugar, and Palm had Wisco-Rose and Michigan-Fiesta.
Everyone has Wisconsin to the Rose, except Schlabach, who sticks with msu. Speaking of msu, they're predicted in the Rose (1), Cap1 (3), Outback (1), and Insight (2). Michigan, on the other hand, is pretty much a concensus at the Cap1 (2) or Outback (5).
Of note is that several of these guys are predicting 10 Big Ten teams to be bowl eligible: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, msu, Penn St, osu, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, and Northwestern. There is a clear top half and botom half, but that's just crazy, man. That's why you're seeing random bowl games like New Era Pinstripe, Kraft Fight Hunger, and New Mexico Bowl. Rittenberg can't commit, so he just puts Illinois in "Other".
There is another post about BCS rankings & the Big 12. This post doesn't care about the Big 12, but is about the Big 10 and Michigan.
The current rankings have four teams bunched together, and one not far behind, all at 8 - 2:
- 15 Michigan State
- 16 Nebraska
- 17 Wisconsin
- 18 Michigan
- 21 Penn State
I'm not going to go into all the permutations, but in a common sense way, whoever wins out will be in a BCS Bowl. However, that's not what will happen. Michigan State will win it's next two games, and play in the inaugural championship game. Wisconsin, if it beats Penn State, will also go. Penn State, if it beats Wisconsin, will go. I can't even begin to predict who will win the game in Indy.
Back to Michigan: I like our chances to win our next two games, not go to the championship game, and end up with a decent bowl. I'm wondering if we beat Nebraska and Ohio, if we might sneak in as a 2nd Big 10 team going to a BCS bowl. Or would the loser of the championship game in Indy still be ranked ahead of us?
Well, its just speculation. I like Hoke's attitude: focus on the games on the field, and the rest will sort itself out.
So with two games left, home contests against Nebraska and Ohio State, we know Michigan will finish the regular season 8-4 at worst and 10-2 at best.
I think most of us would have been happy with being 8-2 after 10 at the beginning of the season, my pre-season prediction was 8-4, so I have to tell myself I can't be very disappointed no matter what happens to finish the season.
There's no doubt, however, that Michigan has been a pretty bi-polar team this season. Impressive wins over some decent teams and a couple of poor performances in our losses leave many fans wondering how good this team really is. I think we'll find out for sure in the next few weeks, but who wants to wait that long? Here's a statistical breakdown of the season so far:
All stats are based on the last 9 games, the game against Western doesn't officially count.
Total Offense: Denard Robinson- 1,611 yds passing, 864yds rushing, 275 total YPG (24th Overall, 1st in B1G)
Passing YPG: Denard Robinson- 99/189, 179ypg, 13 TDS, 13 INTs (71st Overall, 5th in B1G)
Passing Efficiency: Denard Robinson- 132.92 rtng (57th overall, 5th in B1G)
Junior Hemingway- 27rec, 520yds, 19.3ypc, 1 TD (NR)
Jeremy Gallon- 23rec, 391yds, 17.0ypc, 2 TDs (NR)
Roy Roundtree- 14rec, 278yds, 19.9ypc, 2 TDs (NR)
Denard Robinson- 151car, 864yds, 12 TDs, 5.7YPC, 96.0YPG (32nd Overall, 5th in B1G)
Fitzgerald Toussaint- 114car, 673yds, 5 TDs, 5.9YPC, 84.1 YPG (48th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Passing: 200.4ypg, 15TDs, 14INTs (84th Overall, 7th in B1G)
Rushing: 235.9ypg, 22TDs (11th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Total Offense: 436.3ypg, 6.48 yards per play (33rd Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Scoring: 32.3ppg, 38TDs, 8 FGs (37th Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Turnovers lost: 19, 14 INTs (111th), 5 fumbles lost (9th) (T-78th Overall, 11th in B1G)
Red Zone Offense: 44 drives, 27 TDs, 8 FGs, 80% (T-69th Overall, 7th in B1G)
Not exactly the powerhouse that we were last year, but we have the 5th and 6th best rushers in the Big Ten in Denard and Fitzgerald. Denard is obviously not much of a passing quarterback and he gets a lot of flack for it, but with his legs factored in he's still the most productive player in the Big Ten. Toussaint is looking like the running back of the future. Our lack of a passing game means we don't have any receivers that stand out nationally, with none falling in the top 100. Our turnovers have been brutal this season, with our 14 INTs landing us 111th in the country. After a great start to the season in the red zone, we've fallen to an 80% in red zone scoring, putting us in the bottom half of the B1G.
All in all, not as impressive as many of us were hoping for, but plenty of glimmers of hope, the most productive player in the Big Ten, and a solid ground game make it a pretty decent season so far.
Offensive Grade: B
Passes Defended: JT Floyd- 6 PBU's, 2 INTs, .89 passes defended per game (T-78th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Forced Fumbles: Thomas Gordon- 2FF (T-68th Overall, 4th in B1G)
Thomas Gordon- 4FR (T-2nd Overall, 1st in B1G)
Jake Ryan- 2 FR (T-31st Overall, T-4th in B1G)
Passing Defense: 191.3ypg, 6.47ypa, 9 TDs, 6 INTs (22nd Overall, 6th in B1G)
Rushing Defense: 130.9ypg, 4.01ypc, 9 TDs (41st Overall, 5th in B1G)
Total Defense: 322.2ypg, 5.18yds per play, 19TDs (17th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Scoring Defense: 19TDs, 4 FGs, 16.1ppg (7th Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Turnovers Forced: 20, 6 INTs (T-94th), 14 FR (T-5th) (T-28th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Sacks: 19 sacks, 2.11 per game (44th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Red Zone Defense: 27 drives, 16 TDs, 2 FGs, 67% (1st Overall, 1st in B1G)
First of all, we have the best red zone defense in the country!? I would not have guessed that. Second of all, the Big Ten is a defensive juggernaut of a conference. When we're 22nd in the country in passing defense and that's only good for 6th in the Big Ten, that's pretty ridiculous. But seeing that we're 17th nationally in total defense and that five other Big Ten teams are still ahead of us (MSU, Wisky, PSU, Illinois and OSU) is just obscene. There's not even a major statistic that our defense is outside the top 50 in (we're also 39th in 3rd down defense and 20th in 4th down defense). I think if you told me our defense would be this good a year ago I would have slapped you. We're lacking in interceptions but dominating in fumble recoveries. I love Greg Mattison and I love this defense.
Defensive Grade: A-
Punting: Will Hagerup- 21 punts, 49 long, 35.8avg (NR)
Kicking: Brendan Gibbons- 8/11, 38 long, 37/37 XP (55th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Punt Returns: Jeremy Gallon- 14ret, 11.43ypr (18th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Punt Returns: 16ret, 160yds, 10.0avg (39th Overall, 4th in B1G)
Punt Return D: 16ret, 142yds, 8.88ypr (78th Overall, 10th in B1G)
Net Punting: 33 punts, 37.73avg, 16ret, 8.8ypr, 32.82 net avg (112th Overall, 12th in B1G)
Kickoff Returns: 20ret, 388yds, 19.4ypr (102nd Overall, 10th in B1G)
Kickoff Return D: 37ret, 708yds, 19.1ypr (23rd Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Turnover Margin: 20 gained, 19 lost, +1 (51st Overall, 7th in B1G)
Penalties: 40 penalties, 39.22yds per game (T-12th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Not really sure what to make of this. Pretty disheartening to see that we're one of the worst net punting teams in the nation, one of the worst kick return teams in the nation, and one of the worst punt return defense teams in the nation. It is, however, encouraging to see Gallon in the top 20 punt returners in the country, and our penalties are under control. Gibbons is Gibbons, and 8/11 is pretty good compared to last year. Still, I feel like Special Teams aren't a priority on this team.
Special Teams Grade: C+
So our offense has been a little underwhelming, our defense has been an extremely pleasant surprise, and our special teams have been business as usual, sadly. But that's just what the numbers say. What do you say?
Since the defensive improvement has been far and away better than anything any of us could have expected, I thought it would be interesting to see the extent of the improvement in historical terms. I collected data on scoring defense and yardage defense from Rivals as far back as 2003 to the present. Here are the results (click on the graphs to embiggen):
And, to compare the two data sets, I've superimposed them by representing each as a percentage of the worst historical performance (i.e., 2010):
The result is striking. Thus far, Hoke, Mattison and the rest of the defensive staff have turned this squad into one of the best 3 defensive teams in the past 9 years.
UPDATE: MGoBlog user Mat suggested that I look at our defense's yards allowed per play. I did some googling and found stats dating back to 2003 foryards per play. The following graph is based on statistics that only take into account performances against other FBS teams:
Which confirms Mat's impression (and ours) that while this defense is excellent we are not yet elite. That's not surprising given that it's year 1 of yet another defensive system and that we are starting two freshmen.