football

Last year when I posted FERGODSAKES, I was very thankful for all the amazing support I received and the generous amount of views my hype video got. I was even more blessed to see players tweet it out and to see via the analytics that most of the views came from MGoBlog. I love this community so much!

When I made that video, I had no intention of making it a yearly thing, but a poster said he couldn't wait to see what I would do "next year." Well, I decided to have a recurring hype video, so without further ado, here's the 2013 edition of FERGODSAKES.

I hope you all like it!

(And in case this doesn't embed, here's the direct link: http://youtu.be/lhaj-d8iTv4)

Looking at this week's college football schedule of games, I don't know man.

Are there any probable or likely upsets that could get this season off to a roaring start of hopelessness, despair and "tears of unfathomable sadness"?

Week One Schedule (August 31): http://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/scoreboard/

Somehow I'd like to see Hawai'i blast USC and Kiffin's two quarterback approach after a week of Pat Haden incessantly (yet needlessly) supporting that decision.

Like most, I can't wait for the season to start.

So, I've been waiting for this thread to appear. It hasn't.  So I'm officially starting my  second  thread ever.  I'm sure that tomorrow will be pretty busy with the CMU preview and all.

Your prediction should come in three forms.  First: What will the first offense offensive play for us be?  Second: Who scores the first  touchdown this year?  Third: What will the final score be?

I'll start us off:

1. I think Hoke wants to start MANBAWL off right and we see Fitz off right tackle for 4 yards.  I would love to see play  action deep to Chesson, but I doubt it.

2. The first touchdown will go to none other than D. Funch.  Of course, if we win the toss and defer, than Blake can have the honor of a pick 6 and I'll be just fine with that.

3. 42-3. Usually as we get closer to a game I get more pessimistic.  Oddly this year I feel that we should blow their doors off on both sides of the ball.

Grab your crystal ball and make it happen, people!

THE DIFFERENCE IN YARDS

Building a little on something Seth put in the last Dear Diary, I went back through the 2011 and 2012 seasons last night and took a look at yards per play and point differential, and as it turns out, they do correspond to each other rather well.

To be fair, 26 games is a somewhat limited sample, but it is telling enough that I think we can show statistically something that you probably would have guessed - if you’re typically gaining more yards per offensive snap than your opponent, the chances are that you’ll win. Further, the bigger that differential between offensive yards per play, the larger the point margin will typically be – good or bad, of course.

How good is the correlation? It is pretty good for football statistics actually. Indeed, the R-value for the correlation between point differential and the yards per play differential turns out to be R=0.85 in this sample. Actually, in these last two seasons, we are averaging 64 offensive snaps per game, which probably ranks towards the bottom of Division I, I would believe, but then again, we do get quite a bit out of them at an average of 6.20 yards per play overall.

A LITTLE SUMMARY ANALYSIS:

Here are a few summary statistics from the two seasons:

Of minor note here is that the minimum value for total plays represents the rain-shortened Western Michigan game, and the minimum value for yards per play for Michigan actually is the 2012 Nebraska game, which…well, anyway. We somehow managed to run 82 plays against South Carolina in our latest bowling adventure, and the 9.04 yards per play is the 2011 ND game.

In those 26 games, the median YPP turns out to be 6.59 yards, and performance above and below this line is night and day really. Indeed, in two seasons, we are 5-7 when we fall below the median for yards per play. We have a perfect record when we have achieved better than 6.59 yards per play.

THE RELATIONSHIP CHARTED:

Here is the relationship between yards per play and point differential in graphic form –

CONCLUSION:

So, it is indeed correct that yards per play is a fairly effective indicator of overall success on a game-by-game basis. It will be interesting to see what this season will look like in graph form. I will have them ready at some point.

OBLIGATORY:

Obviously we're ALL going to enjoy the game as fans first. This is going to be an exciting year of Michigan football.

Me myself, I'll probably watch the game (as a fan), record it, then watch it immediately afterwards to actually look at individual battles, subs, and things of that nature.

That said, what is the "coach" in your looking for on Saturday? Any position battles? Any players in particular? Just interested to see what everyone will be keeping an eye on to try and gather more information about the rest of the season.

BREAKING: Johnny Manziel will be suspended for first half against Rice, source tells @McMurphyESPN.

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 28, 2013

Umm. yeah.  The NCAA slapped his wrist so lightly here I don't even think he felt the contact.

Go NCAA.