mesmerism! presidential assassinations! circuses on fire!
Note: I edited this since my original post to better utilize the ESPN data. Apologies if this makes some of the comments confusing.
Never having contributed anything of value to this site, I thought I’d take a shot at combining the Scout, Rivals, 247, and ESPN player rankings into one. The goal is to come up with a straightforward way to compare elite recruits’ status with the ranking services (i.e. without forcing people to juggle rankings and star ratings from four different sites in their heads).
Aggregating across the sites is not easy, partly because of data availability and especially because of the different methods used by different sites. There are countless ways to do this, with most requiring some kind of data imputation. Since no data imputation strategy would be liked by all, I’m proposing a different method that requires no imputation. Let’s call it the Veto-Based Aggregate Recruiting (V-BAR?) Rankings. (Crappy name & acronym? Check.)
The basic idea is that we restrict the rankings to players who appear in every site’s top X list (i.e. no one was unimpressed with the recruit) and then order them based on their average rankings across the sites. It’s “veto-based” because any site can prevent a player from appearing on the aggregated list.
I see two primary objections to this:
(1) It eliminates highly regarded prospects when only one outlier site is unsold on them.
(2) It gives excessive veto power to ESPN (and eliminates a lot of players) just because the ESPN 150 only ranks 150 prospects while the other services rank 247-300.
First, for (1). This is just the design of this ranking. Basically, to get on this list, there is consensus that you’re outstanding, and the average rankings tease apart just how highly you’re regarded. Interestingly, for each recruiting service, one guy stands out, rankings-wise, as a glaring omission. For Rivals, it’s Sheldon Day (#65 to Scout, #80 to 247, #144 to ESPN). For Scout, it’s Amos Leggett (#104 to Rivals, #75 to 247, #95 to ESPN). For 247, it’s Avery Young (#38 to Rivals, #13 to Scout, #119 to ESPN). For ESPN, it’s Zeke Pike (#72 to Rivals, #33 to Scout, #18 to 247). In general, though, there aren't too many really serious outliers.
Now for (2). Giving ESPN excessive veto power seems problematic, especially since ESPN’s rankings are often questioned for their quality and objectivity. Therefore, in addition to using the ESPN 150, I grabbed the next 150 players from ESPN’s recruiting rankings (link: http://espn.go.com/college-football/recruiting/prospects). So we have rankings for 300 players from ESPN.
By my count, 147 players appear in Rivals’ top 250, Scout’s top 300, 247’s top 247, and ESPN’s top 300. Here they are in order of average ranking across these four sites:
VETO-BASED AGGREGATE RECRUITING RANKINGS (as of 6/19/11)
(incorporates Rivals, Scout, 247, and ESPN)
|3||Mario Edwards||6.25||DE||Florida State|
|28||Dante Fowler||41.75||DE||Florida State|
|39||Jarron Jones||49.75||DT||Penn State|
|40||Trey Williams||50.5||RB||Texas A&M|
|44||Ronald Darby||57.5||CB||Notre Dame|
|45||Kyle Kalis||57.75||OT||Ohio State|
|49||Chris Casher||61.5||DE||Florida State|
|60||Tee Shepard||83.5||CB||Notre Dame|
|67||Brock Stadnik||91.25||OT||South Carolina|
|72||Mario Pender||98||RB||Florida State|
|80||Se'von Pittman||109.25||DE||Michigan State|
|86||Kendall Sanders||115||CB||Oklahoma State|
|90||Michael Starts||116.5||OG||Texas Tech|
|93||Angelo Jean-Louis||119||WR||Miami (FL)|
|102||Matt Davis||131.25||QB||Texas A&M|
|103||Brionte Dunn||131.75||RB||Ohio State|
|105||P.J. Williams||134.5||S||Florida State|
|109||Bralon Addison||137||WR||Texas A&M|
|132||J.J. Denman||173.5||OT||Penn State|
|134||John Michael McGee||173.75||C|
|138||Camren Williams||185.25||OLB||Penn State|
|143||Joshua Perry||194.75||OLB||Ohio State|
|145||Dalvon Stuckey||207.25||DT||Florida State|
Arizona offensive lineman Andrus Peat (6'7", 305 lbs) is one of the top prospects in the nation, a five star to most sites. Peat decided to take a trip up to Ann Arbor this weekend and I caught up with him to see how the visit went. Here's a look at his film and what he had to say.
TOM: What was the reason that you decided to visit Michigan?
ANDRUS: Right now I'm just trying to get out to all the schools that I'm seriously interested in. I've been to Florida State, USC, and Stanford. I just wanted to get out to Michigan because they have a great tradition for winning and getting linemen to the NFL. I'm also going to Notre Dame tomorrow and then going back home.
TOM: Once these visits are done are you going to try to narrow things down based off of what you saw?
ANDRUS: Yeah, I'm going to cut my list to probably around 5 to 8 after I get out to these schools. By the end of the summer I'll make that cut.
TOM: To get to this visit to Ann Arbor specifically, what did you do once you first got there?
ANDRUS: When I got there I got to meet with the coaches, we toured the campus, and then saw the facilities. It was good to see everything, I was really impressed by the campus and the college atmosphere. It was a lot better than I expected.
TOM: I'm assuming you got to meet with Coach Funk, what did you talk about with him?
ANDRUS: He was saying that there's a great opportunity for linemen because they only have like 8 on scholarship, I think. It's a great opportunity to play early and they said they really like me. I definitely want to give them a good look.
TOM: Do you think this visit helped you get more comfortable with the coaches? Since you live in Arizona did this help make a better connection with the coaches?
ANDRUS: I think it helped me a lot to get to know the coaches better. Coach Funk was at my school a couple times so I'm familiar with him. It was good for me to get on campus though and see everything.
TOM: You said you have been out to places like Florida State and USC, how did this visit compare to those?
ANDRUS: It's definitely way up there. It was the biggest stadium I've ever seen, and I had a really good feeling about it. The whole atmosphere, the college town which I like, and the area was good. Talking to all the coaches and seeing the opportunity to play there, it was really good.
TOM: I know Michigan fans are curious, now that Nebraska is in the Big Ten, your brother Todd signed with the Cornhusker in last year's class. Is that going affect on you at all?
ANDRUS: I'm going to give them a look, but just because he's there doesn't mean that's where I'll go. I want to find the right opportunity for me and take a look at all these schools.
TOM: Do you think this visit helped Michigan at all, and when do you plan on making your final decision?
ANDRUS: For sure, I was really impressed with everything. I could definitely see myself playing there. I don't know when I'll make my decision, just whenever I feel right. I will probably take official visits and then decide after my senior season.
Per Bill Greene's twitter. Huge get for MSU out of nowhere.
Coach Carr was the Grand Marshall at today's NASCAR event at MIS. Not sure if anyone else caught it, but I'll have some video to update late. No use of "Tremendous", but he looked pretty good and very ethusiastic!
Michigan's camp starts today and run's to the 23rd. I'm obviously not there, but here's who has told me they will be there at least one of the day. There is going to be a ton of kids at this camp, since it's back to being big and open to everyone.
- RB Juwan Lewis (5'11", 208 lbs) 3 star from Muskegon
- QB Austin Appleby (6'5", 228 lbs) 3 star from Ohio. Hoping to earn an offer.
- OL Steven Elmer (6'6", 297 lbs) 2013 prospect from Midland, MI. Just received his Michigan offer today, they're on campus. Already has Michigan State, Mississippi State, and Wisconsin.
- QB Brian Blackburn (6'5", 197 lbs) from Detroit might be there.
- DT Danny O'Brien (6'2", 293 lbs) 4 star from Flint. This camp could help him and Michigan get back on the same page. He'll be there Monday or Tuesday.
- OL Daron Brown (6'5", 312 lbs) from Detroit. Just received an offer from Akron to go with Buffalo.
- RB Alden Hill (6'2", 220 lbs) 3 star from Ohio. Hoping for a Michigan offer.
- OL David Dawson (6'5", 305 lbs) 2013 kid from Cass Tech. I'd imagine there will be more Cass kids like Kenton Gibbs, who will be there 20th and 21st, coming with him.
- DT Vontrell Williams (6'2", 265 lbs) 3 star from Illinois. Trying to earn an offer. The 21st is when he'll be there.
- Maybe: Michigan commit Anthony Standifer and his 2013 teammate WR Laquon Treadwell.
- QB Robert Gregory (6'3", 181 lbs) 3 star, teammates with Jordan Diamond is supposed to be there.
- DB Cameron Burrows (6'1", 175 lbs) 2013 prospect from Trotwood, Ohio. He isn't sure if he's coming or not yet.
- DE Matt Miller (6'4", 240 lbs) 2013 prospect. He's '11 signee Jack Miller's younger brother. I confirmed with Jack that Matt will be there. He said the coaches are interested in Matt and they're excited to see him at camp.
- RB/FB Wyatt Shallman (6'3", 245 lbs) 2013 instate prospect will probably be up on Monday to hang out. He won't be participating.
This is just a small list of notable people I've confirmed. I'll post them as I hear of more.
The link below is to a report on the Big 33 game that mentions Antonio Poole favorably and notes Keith Heitzman created pressure as a DE and scored a 1 yard TD(?). No mention of Frank Clark, but the header on Scout says he played well. Any more definitive info out there?