"The University of Illinois is also in turmoil. The university sports an Interim Chancellor, an Interim Athletic Director, and an Interim Football Coach; the game will be played at Soldier Field, making this an Illini Interim Home Game."
The coaches poll, Harris poll and Computers each count for 1/3 of a team's BCS ranking.
The coaches poll was released earlier today was not kind to the Cowboys. With 59 total voters, Bama totaled a 32 point edge. While we don't know for certain how this broke down, this result is equivalent to 14 coaches voting the Cowboys 2nd and Bama 3rd (23.7%), 44 voting for Bama 2nd and (nt)OSU 3rd (74.6%) and one voting for Bama 2nd and OSU 4th (1.7%).
This was a significantly worse result for the Cowboys than what they got in the AP where Alabama garnered a 16 point edge with a total of 60 voters.
Given that both the Coaches and AP polls broke for Alabama, the Cowboys' hopes seem to hinge on getting help from the computers. There are 6 computer rankings. The highest and lowest result for each team gets dropped. Last week 4 of the 6 computers put Alabama at 2nd and OSU 3rd and the remaining 2 put Oklahoma State 2nd and Alabama 3rd.
If these results hold or the Cowboys are only able to flip one computer, their chance at a title game is functionally zero.
If they flip two computers this will be the computer score
This would nearly wipe out Bama's edge gained from the Coaches poll, but OSU would still need to top Bama by a slim margin in the Harris poll to get a title shot. Given the results from the Coaches and AP polls, this seems unlikely, though not impossible.
If they flip 3 or 4 computers this will be the computer score: OSU: .96 Bama: .92 The remainder of this analysis will deal with this possibility.
UPDATE: 2 computer rankings (Sagarin and Wolfe) have been released they both have Bama 2nd. This means OSU flipping 3 or 4 computers is no longer a possibility. OSU will have to at minimum gain 5 points on Alabama in the Harris poll to go to the BCS. This means they will need to top Bama on 52.18% of Harris poll ballots assuming neither team is ranked beneath 3rd.
Assuming OSU flips 3 or all 4 computers, Bama would have to make up a .0183 edge in the Harris poll. (The difference in computer score and coaches score) The Harris Poll has 115 voters. For Bama to overtake OSU they would need to be placed 53 spots above the Cowboys in the aggregate. Assuming all voters put Bama and OSU in some comination of 2nd and 3rd Bama would need 84 of the 115 voters (73%) to rank them 2nd. For perspective, if the Harris poll comes out with similar results to the coaches poll Bama will top OSU by ,0034 points. If it comes out with similar results the AP the Cowboys will overtake Bama by .0063.
- If the Cowboys can't flip a computer, or only flip one they are doomed.
- If they flip 2 it is still highly unlikely they get to the National Championship
If the Cowboys flip 3 or 4, Bama will need at least 73% of Harris poll voters to rank them 2nd, assuming all voters rank Bama and OSU at least 3rd.
For the non mathematically inclined: If the Cowboys flip 3 or 4 computers and the Harris voters rank the teams as the coaches did it's rematch time. If the Harris voters rank the teams like the AP did T Boone will be very happy.
- If Richard Billingsly (computer) keeps Bama at 2 they are definitely in.
- If Billingsly switches OSU and Bama OSU must gain 5 points on Bama in the Harris poll. This means they would need 52.18% of Harris voters to put them above Bama assuming neither team gets ranked below 3rd. Given the results of the coaches and AP poll this seems unlikely.
- The Tide will likely roll to a rematch.
Someone managed to combine two of my favorite things (Sporcle and Schadenfruede) into a fantastic test on your knowledge of the biggest Sparty NO moments (Sparty NOments) since 2000: http://www.sporcle.com/games/schnoxl/sparty_no
The fact that we're even having these discussion is awesome. I don't care if all the speculation is driving people nuts. We haven't been able to speculate for years now. If you don't like it, get off your computer and log back on at 8:30. Go Blue. BEAT OHIO!
(note: I had two videos I tried embedding, they're below.)
Last year's basketball team got a rally in Crisler for the tourney selection show. Is there anything similar (presumably also at Crisler) going on with the football team?
If not, does anyone know the appropriate party to email to encourage such things to happen in the future?
Plain and simple, it looks like it's TCU, KSU or Boise St.
Who do you want to play in the Sugar Bowl?
What we've heard from a lot of teams complaining about the coming BCS selections, is how unfair the process is. Mostly by our "friends" in east Lansing, claiming that by a result of their victory over us earlier this season, that by default, they should be ranked ahead of us. While we could spend the better part of this month debating that, most Spartan fans, and other shunned teams are forgetting what the BCS is about. It's about money, and it's about tv exposure. Growing up a redsox fan, my hatred for the Yankees would cause me to watch them, hoping and praying they would lose. That symbol, their pin stripes, yankee stadium, I hated it all. Michigan, to a lot of football fans around the country, presents the same thing. They hate "hail to the victors", they hate our winged helmets, they hate Tom Brady, and they hate the Big House. They will most definitely watch, if only to see us get our ass kicked. The Michigan brand, like the Yankee brand, is a world wide brand.
That's what a lot of fans don't understand, that the business aspect of these selection, after the title game, and conference champions are selected, money is all that matters. Not only do we travel well, the merchandising opportunities with the Michigan brand, are far better than the other options. To quote our esteemed leader, and reigning B1G coach of the year, Brady Hoke "This is Michigan" after all.
Edit: Parts of this have been posted by other OP's, but they play an essential part iin explaining the "Yankee" comparison. This is also not to say, that we aren't worthy of going to the game on record alone, because we absolutely are. A large part of the process, is how you're playing right now, how you finish.