football

I’ve added “AQ Best Per Game” Data for comparison purposes.

Synopsis: Yikes, that makes 3 games in a row that TOs have been a significant factor. With close games, I guess that should be expected. Although the TOM ended at -0-, the official stats do not count a blocked punt as a TO. Taking the blocked punt into account, we ended up at -1. (The blocked punt led to a UMass TD.)

For the UMass game, M had more lost TOs than the average AQ team (2.0 versus 1.77 – 3.0 versus 1.77 if you include the blocked punt) and more TOs gained than the average AQ team (2.0 versus 1.88).

Through 3 games, TOM is excellent due to very low TO Lost and about average TO Gained. TOs lost are great at just 0.67 per game versus and AQ average of 1.77 per game. A concern is our lack of forcing opponent fumbles with only 0.67 per game versus an AQ average of 1.73 per game.

The Extrapolation is a straight line: [Totals] X [12 Total Games / Games Played].
The “AQ Best” and “AQ Average” is over the last 10 years. AQ Best is kind of funky because the team with the “best” in each category is different so the numbers don’t add. But, it does provide a point of reference.

Here is the detail of each fumble/interception and a comment providing insight if the turnover (or lack thereof) was significant. Note: Blocked Punts are not officially considered a turnover and an interception of an extra point attempt is also not considered a turnover (player does not get credit for an interception).

 Here is the overall summary by player.

Remember here are the correlations of TOM to WLM at season’s end:

TOM is a significant contributing factor in determining the WLM.

90% of teams with a positive TOM of 5.0 or greater had winning records
84% of teams with positive TOM had winning records

62% of teams with a positive TOM of 5.0 or greater had WLM of +4 or better (8-4 record or better)
38% of teams with a TOM of 0 to +4.0 had a WLM of 4 or better
Only 25% of teams with a TOM 0 to -4.0 had a WLM of +4 or better
Only 8% of teams with a negative TOM of -5 or worse had WLM of +4 or better

Details here:    http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-3-what-impact-winning

I want to first establish a few things that I assume to be generally true. One is that Mike Martin is our best defensive player who will be successful anywhere on the line and the other being that we are married to the 3 man front. If he is the best, then in a three man front, we should at least try a move to an end due to his uncanny explosiveness and strength. Now Martin can obviously play the nose and fight through double teams, but he could also potentially be a more dominant lineman away from the nose. I would almost prefer to see what would happen if by playing others who could simply hold or occasionally lose the point of attack over the center if we could gain “beast mode” from the end position since we have seen the potential of Bangesse and I am not sure the ceiling is that much higher.

If you look at comparisons to other teams with 3 man fronts, you can almost see where GERG wants to go. For the best comparison, I felt it makes the most sense to compare to NFL teams since they can choose very specific talent for their schemes based on “hiring” and economic incentives. For this I pulled the Steelers (the gold standard) and the Chiefs (team in transition to a 3 man front which is sort of where we are). All 3 man fronts have is a space eater at NT which Martin is already doing very well. This space eater is typically containing the point of attack and in Martin’s over achieving case, occasionally breaking through a double team to actually cause some disruption in the backfield.

Strangely enough, the physical sizes of most positions match up (with the exception of Gordon since we are not running a 3-4 defense) with Martin still giving up about 30lbs to a comparable NT and I don’t know if you want him to carry 30 more pounds. While Martin is somewhat shorter than a Steelers DE starter (he is about the same as their second string FWIW), he is dead on with Dorsey from KC who was very disruptive in college from the tackle position and doing well in the NFL within Crennel’s 4-3 scheme due to his explosiveness.

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Due to Martin’s unusual strength, he can continue to excel at the NT, but think about him with Roh dropping down along side him from the LB spot. The only issue this creates is that it only leaves Will and Ash (who probably won’t play this year) as “big enough guys” with Patterson really undersized for the position. I really don’t care if Will can’t run distance due to his summer at Cass Tech, but we also need to consider than you can play your way into shape if we his not “there” and going against Molk all week in practice can make most guys look bad. At least you could determine his unknown upside instead of waiting for Bangesse to show something after multiple years in the program. It is also quite possible he is too tall to get leverage as a NT and he should be at the end anyway.

Something to think about at least. Coaches like everyone else can have tunnel vision or dog houses that don’t get vacated for whatever reason. Might as well try it before conference play starts so we can see what we have.

I was reading an article about LaLota transferring to Rutgers.  There was an interesting item about Marcus Witherspoon (LB recruit out of NJ that had clearinghouse issues and was not admitted to M).  

The interesting quote:  "In 2008, linebacker Marcus Witherspoon, a star at Holy Spirit High in Atlantic City,  transfered from Michigan but he never panned out and left school last spring."

Here's the link to the article:  http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2010/09/lalota_is_happy_to_be_a_scarle.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5599261

Wisconsin LB and last year's Big Ten Freshman of the Year out for the year with shoulder issues.  Big blow to Wisconsin's D.

Who is more impressive in this photo?

Taylor Lewan lifting Denard like he's a 5 year old?

or

Denard apparently flying? ... Take your pick

So after years of considering, I decided to finally go out and buy a Michigan football jersey. Naturally, I wanted to get a #16 jersey, for my all time favorite player, John Navarre. Surprisingly enough, the store was almost out of Navarre jerseys! They had one left in my size though, so I bought it, and prepared to flaunt it on Saturday at the Big House. Lo and behold, I wasn't the only one with this in mind! I didn't know there were so many Navarre fans still out there, but it was one of the most popular jerseys I saw for the day (along with a few people shamefully wearing David Underwood jerseys). Anyways, does anyone know what's the sudden rush of Navarre jerseys? Is it the recent news article on him? Are there that many Arlo Steel fans out there? Oh well, the more support for my favorite player the better!