So, with the offseason,we all know comes plenty of time to ponder and think about the teams successes and short comings from last year and what next year will hold for us. Obviously everyone's biggest concern is the defense. In my homeristic mind, I want to believe the defense will be substantially better this season due to the changes on the coaching staff. Judging the skill of a coach in my mind, greatly depends on his ability to gameplan and make in-game adjustments. To some how quantify this, as our biggest problem last year, would a help provide me the assurance that our talent wasn't as bad as I know it to be, but rather GERG and his ineptitude to run a 3-3-5 and make adjustments. So what I did was break down the games last year into PTS Allowed per quarter, or to sound smart PAPQ
Obviously with a new DC, I wanted to see what his team looked like from the previous year on the same premise with PAPQ. I understand it's tough to compare and contrast NCAA to NFL, but what the hell, it's the offseason AMIRITE?
|1st qtr||2nd qtr||3rd qtr||4th qtr|
|Avg PTS. Allowed||5.5||15.5||6.3||6.7|
|1st qtr||2nd qtr||3rd qtr||4th qtr|
|Avg PTS. Allowed||3.185||4.56||1.5||7.44|
What sticks out you say?
1.) The first thing that jumps out to me was, Holy 2nd quarter Batman... Only once during the season did we not give up at least double digit points in the second quarter. Our second worst quarter, was the 4th, which makes sense as it takes the 1st and 3rd quarters to see what defense are doing and adjust their offensive gameplan.
2.) Ironically, the same can basically be said for the Ravens defense. With their 2 worst quarters being 4th and the 2nd respectively. But, their 3rd quarter speaks volumes to me. Only allowing 1.5 points coming out of the locker room, yes please?
3.) Mattison's defense had skill yo. I am a little scared that they were giving up more points in the 4th quarter than any other quarter, But, if we can go into the 4th quarter only having allowed around 10 points like the Ravens did, I think most of us can live with that.
4.) What this means... I am not too sure, other than that, by the second quarter teams had figured out how to attack the 3-3-5 and took it to us. M only has 1 PAPQ less than 6. Which, I collectively blame on the gameplan and ingame adjustments. In comparison the Ravens also never had a PAPQ above 7.4
Is Mattison a better DC than GERG, I believe we all collectively believe that he is, and it looks like his gameplans and in-game adjustments exceed what GERG was able to do last season. How much of our problem was scheme and gameplan vs. talent deficencies? I think only time will tell.
I am no math whizz but thought it'd be it'd be an interesting topic to look at. So if you have any suggestions please, make them and I will work/edit this diary as suggestions come along to make it as informative and insightful as I possibly can. As always, Go blue.
Edit: realize I accidently put Michigan's box score in for IU during the initial post. Numbers have been reflected. First quarter slightly less bad, second quarter... GEESH...
Individual tickets went on sale to Victors club this AM at 830ET. There were only individual tickets for ND and Purdue(Homecoming).
I was able to get them for ND in the corners/endzone, and Nebraka/OSU sets in similar areas.
As of right now ND is sold out and OSU is down to individual tickets. Nebraska still has sets left.
Thought I would update if anyone still wants anything, for those of you hoping ND would make it to the general public they are sold out.
From the department of "no shit, Sherlock."
EDIT: per pdgoblue, I changed the link to a non-ESPN link for those that don't want to click-through to ESPN (largely same content).
So, I'm elaborating on my initial post in MGoShoe's original thread about the Detroit News Mascot Contest. I've got an idea and it appears that this thing has some legs, and so I quickly knocked out a five-minute visual to help sell the idea to Brandon. Call me DB.
(The following rehashes and/or elaborates on much of what I said earlier)
I had multiple people ask if I was going to submit something for their contest, but things have been pretty busy on my end. More on that next month. BUT I did think about it, and I was torn between the 'ferocious wolverine' concept, as we saw in the News' winning entry (and I think looks pretty good, all things considered), and something else, which I'll affectionately name:
THE OVERLY ENTITLED
Our mascot should be successful and he should know it. Perhaps he's got on a smoking jacket, or better yet, an overpriced fitted polo oxford with $150 jeans and a sweet pair of doc martens. He should sport a well-groomed unshaven look and a pair of rimless glasses that he will only take off to properly look down upon the Purdue Pete's and Bucky the Badgers of the world. He will always have it all put together and will be effortlessly in shape, never flaunting the ridiculous six pack that Herky the Hawkeye knows is just one layer of business casual away.
He should smell like a swanky Fortune 500 corner office and an exotic fruit you've never heard of all at once. He's not so much Facebook as he is LinkedIn, and even then he's a premium member at that who always seems to be too busy to add any contacts. Girls will always know when he enters the room, and their boyfriends will hate him for it. He'll be that guy who's already seen the movie you bring up in conversation, and will recommend an independent film that's far better. He'll tell jokes that make you laugh harder than you knew you could, and yet he'll be more interested in talking about world events.
He'll be that guy that buys really good coffee. The kind that tastes even better than it smells.
And even as he's leading the team onto the field, he should be cutting consultant deals on his smartphone AND playing plants vs. zombies at the same time. And throughout the game he'll be far too busy discussing microbrews with the hottest adjacent cheerleader to even care that he's been named "Biff."
In short, the new mascot should be a d**k that all of the other mascots hate, and yet also desperately wish they were.
He will give the Nittany Lion the perfect compliment on his striped scarf, and the Lion's insecurities will turn it into the most humiliating insult the Lion has ever heard. The Golden Gopher will constantly ask our mascot to have his picture taken with him, and when he finally does it will become his Facebook avatar in less than three minutes. Oddly enough, the Northwestern wildcat will be one of his buds. And for Brutus the Buckeye, he will be fear personified. Brutus will have a manic and hateful obsession with him, and he'll spend far too many Friday nights in Columbus trying to perfect the perfect Biff google search.
He is Biff, and he is THE MAN.
He will give the Nittany Lion the perfect compliment on his striped scarf, and the Lion's insecurities will turn it into the most humiliating insult the Lion has ever heard. The Golden Gopher will constantly ask our mascot to have his picture taken with him, and when he finally does it will become his Facebook avatar in less than three minutes. Oddly enough, the Northwestern wildcat will be one of his buds. And for Brutus the Buckeye, he will be fear personified. Brutus will not sleep well when he thinks of the Wolverine, and he will have a manic and hateful obsession with him.
I had been keeping in touch with Moeller WR Monty Madaris (6'2", 190 lbs) for some time now because I figured that Michigan would eventually come calling. He told me tonight that Michigan did in fact offer him.
He now holds offers from Boston College, Cincinnati, Florida State, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisville, MSU, and Nebraska among others.
Here's what he had to say about the offer, visiting soon, and when he wants to make a decision:
Coach Smith said they liked my film and they are looking forward to getting me up there for a visit soon. I'll be up for the BBQ on the 31st. Michigan is near the top of my list [now] for sure. They are one of the schools that I'm evaluating more than others. I have no idea when I want to make my decision but I would like to make it soon.
Here's a look at his film. We'll know more about his interest level once he gets on campus. He does like Ohio State and Michigan State, too.
In my last diary I suggested that there might be some room for extra defensive improvement due to the upgrade at DC from Greg Robinson to Greg Mattison. Although I am in general agreement with Brian that massive improvements in the defense should not be expected, I began to wonder what was possible--that is, in the past 5-6 years, has a team improved its defense by leaps and bounds? To that end, I looked at scoring defense ranks of all 120 FBS teams from 2003-2010 to see how teams improved from year to year. Based on the numbers at Rivals, here is how the data shake out:
Note: the x-axis represents changes in rank (negative is good), the y-axis number of examples (out of 840 [120 teams * 7 years]). So the distribution is more or less normal, with a change of 80 rank positions (in either direction) being the maximum, more or less. The largest improvement in our dataset is 94 positions, so if that is the maximum possible then Michigan in 2011 could move up from the 102nd scoring defense (in 2010) to 8th (in 2011). HOORAY!
I had originally suggested that this level of improvement was unlikely, but turd ferguson pointed out that my percentages were misleading, because middling- to highly-ranked defenses simply cannot improve by a large margin. Looking at teams ranked 91st or worse in scoring defense, then, we get the following chart:
You can see that teams with bad defenses improve 20 ranks on average, in part because they have more room to improve than they do to regress. 31% of the time teams ranked 91st or worse improve 30 ranks or more; and 17% of the time they improve 50 ranks or more. To get into the top quartile of defenses, a team ranked 102nd (like Michigan) needs a 70 rank (or more) improvement, which has happened 5% of the time. Looking at the teams with huge improvements, it is difficult to generalize about how they did it. Here are the most improved teams in each year for which we have data (bolded numbers represent the year in which the big improvement was made):
In some cases they seem based on the emergence of a superstar player on defense. For instance, Suh for Nebraska in 2009, which jumped from the 84th scoring defense to 2nd, or Von Miller for Texas A&M, which jumped from the 104th scoring defense in 2009 to the 27th in 2010.
In other cases you have teams that are consistently fairly good who for some reason have a collapse but then recover to their old form. UConn, for instance, usually has a pretty good scoring defense. In 2005, they were 21st, and in 2007 they were 11th in the country, but in 2006 they were 94th. Likewise, TCU has a pretty amazing scoring defense but in 2004 they were 106th in the country. The year before they were 27th, the year after they were 12th. They had some NFL talent, but all 2nd day draft picks or free agents.
Michigan is obviously not in the second type of team. Our defense hasn't been top 20 since 2006. It seems likely that for Michigan to have a good-to-great defense next year, something unexpected will have to happen. The most probable in my opinion is that one or two of our defensive players becomes dominant. Note: my excel spreadsheet is available for download here.