mesmerism! presidential assassinations! circuses on fire!
Star CB Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu and leading rusher Spencer Ware are suspended for unknown team violations. This levels the playing field somewhat against Auburn and should make this game more interesting.
1 game for a punch and an handstomp
The slippery slope is getting slippery. We can see where the next slide is: Clown Uniformz for the Ohio State game. You know, gotta match our big rivals special look that we know they will wear.
Dave Brandon is plotting as we speak. Addidas is plotting as we speak. The lure to do "special" uniforms for Michigan-Ohio State is irresistible. What can we do? How can we avoid it?
Don't fight it, channel it.
A simple yet elegant (and authentic) idea is to have both teams wear their home uniforms for the game. Talk about throwbacks . . . this is authentic. It is what every Michigan-Ohio State game used to look like.
When games started being televised on black and white TV, they had the problem of not enough contrast to tell the teams apart. So they had the visiting team wear white.
I don't think we have that problem anymore. Michigan's and Ohio State's home uniforms are a natural color compliment to each other. It's not like Michigan playing Notre Dame in home uniforms. This would look great and give a special classic nod to the rivalry without clowning it up.
USC and UCLA have done this recently with great success. When they first starting doing it, they each had to sacrifice a time out penalty, but now it can be done without penalty with both team's approval.
Call your local AD now.
Our first chart to end at the bottom
Best Three Plays:
Play 162: Keshawn Martin fumbles to give Michigan great field position, +13%.
Play 166: Robinson to Koger on 3rd and 13 sets up 4th and 1, +12%.
Play 117: Thomas Gordon strips Edwin Baker in the open field, +10%.
Worst Three Plays:
Play 172: Denard sacked on 4th and 1, –21%.
Play 178: Denard throws a pick 6, –15%.
Play 101: Cousins to Martin to give MSU it's first lead of the day, –11%.
Saturday was a day of missed opportunities. After fighting uphill all season on field position, Michigan’s offense finally had a chance to start from a strong point, and did nothing with the opportunity. Michigan’s field position for the game was worth 28 points (average offense vs average defense). Obviously they did not score 28 points. Michigan St’s field position was worth 18 points and they got 21 plus another 7 from the defense. When MSU had the ball the teams ended about equal, with MSU getting 3 more points than expected but also fumbling twice. The game was lost with Michigan’s offense, which should have gotten 28 points if they performed equally to the Spartan defense, but only netted 7. In terms of Win Percent Added, the defense was +4% and the offense was –54%.
Rush offense: +6
Pass offense: –5
Rush defense: –5
Pass defense: –2
Special Teams: -1
The grades look a bit different than the text above because the grades are opponent adjusted. It’s clear what worked and what didn’t on offense, but the play calling did not reflect the strength.
A look at how the major candidates are faring through the first seven weeks through the eyes of Win Percentage Added. Denard takes a big hit as Michigan suffers its first loss, but still holds the overall lead with over 2 full games won by himself.
Denard Robinson +2.11
Russell Wilson +1.73
Kellen Moore +1.62
Andrew Luck +1.26
Sammy Watkins +1.26
Landry Jones +1.01
Ryan Broyles +.66
Trent Richardson +.36
After a leap, Brian's favorite part, and yours.
I had a brief discussion about this in the Opponents comments thread, but I'm wondering if anyone can provide some advanced metrics about whether Zook made the right call last week to go for it on 4th and 3, down 10 with a little over a minute left. Heiko (as well as the announcers in the game) tore Zook a new one for this, but it certainly seems defensible to me, and probably the right call. My point from the comments discussion:
The way I see it, you need a touchdown and a field goal either way. They were in fourth and makeable, pretty close to the OSU goal line--that might be the best opportunity they have to convert the fourth down and score. If they kick the field goal there, they might face down a 4th and 10 from the 33 on the next drive, but they would have to go for that much-more- difficult-to-convert play. it seems like whenever you're down 10 and you know you're going to have to recover the onside kick, you should take the 4th down opportunity to go for it when it seems like you won't get a better one. It's not like Illinois was moving the ball up and down the field. If they kick the field goal and recover the onside kick, seems likely they're going to face something worse than 4th and 3 and be forced to go for it.
To take it to the extreme, if it were 4th and goal from the 2, no one would criticize going for it--that's your best chance to get the touchdown you're going to need anyway. By kicking the field goal, you're "wasting" all of those yards you got within field goal range. I don't see the benefit of doing the field goal first just because it's the easier one--you might only have one chance in the two possessions to get the TD, so when you have that chance, you need to take it. You're going to have to convert the onside kick either way.
It seems like we should be able to calculate a "right" answer for this, but that's much too complex for my simpleton mind. Mathlete, do you have a chart that can enlighten us?