- The overall record of league opponents we don't play over the past 8+ seasons is 62-91 (.405)
- Since 2005, the BEST combined records of opponents we've missed on the schedule is .500 (2012 / 2011 / 2009)
- We didn't/won't play the worst team in the league in 2005 (0-8 Illinois), 2006 (1-7 Illinois), 2008 1-7 Indiana), 2011 (0-8 Indiana), and 2013 (0-2 Illinois [lost past 16 conf games) + 0-3 Purdue
Summary: Saban and Alabama officials are upset students have been leaving games early so they are imposing a clause which is in the ticketing rule. 20 student organizations (mainly greek orgs) will no longer get priority to sit together in blocks. It will be open seating throughout the student section.
Not exactly a big punishment but it is petty even if it was clearly stated up front.
I find it interesting the powers that be in college football have been making decisions for years which have nothing to do with the students interest. Most of the decisions have been made to increase TV viewership. And yet, athletic departments and coaches can't understand why students are showing up late and leaving early.
As far as I know, there is only Boise State / Brigham Young on ESPN at 8 PM, but for those of you who were in the mood for football, this is the thread to discuss this (or other) games.
At last check, many sites were giving an edge to BYU in this one actually, with TeamRankings putting out an estimate score of about 34-27, for starters.
Some key things - Boise State converts nearly 60% of their third downs while allowing opponents to convert a smidge under 40% of them. BYU has considerably more trouble with sustaining drives, but they can stop opponents more often by the numbers. Boise State is far more dangerous in the end zone, but BYU is far more stingy in the red zone.
This could be intriguing.
I've seen the site search function to try to find an explanation of the statistic RPS in Brian's UFR, but I have been unsuccessful. Can someone explain what the statistic measures?
Pictured, the closest defenders Jeremy Gallon saw all day [Upchurch]
1. The Six Factors
|Field Pos||Early Conv||Bonus Yds||Avg 3rd Dist||Adj 3rd Conv||Red Zone|
So, that was a lot of bonus yards. Michigan’s 385 yards beyond the first down mark was the highest mark in college football this year (largely because the game was close and all second half plays counted, unlike say every Baylor game this year). It was the 11th highest total since 2003 and narrowly edged the 2010 Indiana game (by 2 yards) for the highest mark for Michigan in the time period. For comparison, Purdue has 399 bonus yards on the season so far.
Add in Indiana’s 270 yards and this was the highest total for any game this season and the 13th highest total since 2003. There were a lot of big plays in this game. Also, not a lot of third downs, especially long ones and the ones that did occur were converted at a high rate, even after accounting for their short distance. The offenses may have done OK in this one. The important thing is that Michigan’s offense was better than Indiana at virtually all of these things, even if Indiana did pretty well themselves.
2. Individual Game Scores
Devin Gardner: +29.9 EV+, +118% WPA (1st)
The top quarterback score of the season, even after adjusting for what the average offense does against Indiana. This game finished as the #10 QB performance since 2003 and the second best B1G QB score behind CJ Bacher against Michigan State in 2007
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –1.8 (+5.3 before opp. adjustment), +11% (90th)
On the one hand, it was great to see some success from Toussaint, on the other hand, after adjusting for the Indiana factor, it was actually below average. At this point, my expectations are pretty low for the traditional running game. Toussaint had some nice success but given how bad Indiana was and that he still was only at 4.0 YPC until the final run, I don’t see things getting significantly better for him down the brutal November stretch.
Jeremy Gallon: +29.5, +84% (1st, obvs)
So this was a nice game for #21. This blew the doors off of any other receiving performance in the last 11 seasons. Gallon broke Stedman Bailey’s record set last year against Baylor by nearly 15%. I put together a quick chart of Gallon’s projected yards throughout the game.
After the first 70 yarder the pace shot up to nearly 600 yards and never dropped below 300 from then on. It was pretty amazing to see all the On Pace For jokes throughout the day and see that in the end, some of them undershot the final total.
Devin Funchess: +6.8, +15% (49th)
Tre Roberson: +15.5, +54% (4th)
Nate Sudfeld: –0.3, –6% (63rd)
Tevin Coleman: +5.6, +14% (11th)
Kofi Hughes: +9.3, 29%, (22nd)
Cody Latimer: +7.4, +19% (39th)
3. Game Chart
The six biggest plays of the game:
6. 11.1% Roberson runs for a 15 yard TD/Gardner hits Gallon for a 50 yard TD
5. –11.5% Tempo hits Michigan for the opening 59 yard TD pass
4. +14.2% Gordon picks off Sudfeld
3. +17.1% Gardner to
Roundtree Gallon for 70 yards
2. –18.3% Michigan fumbles the snap at the doorstep of the goal line
1. –20.3% Roberson to Hughes (through Stribling) for 67 yards to bring Indiana within a two point conversion
4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week
Last week featured a couple of coaches who punted to win. Both Butch Jones at Tennessee and Bronco Mendenhall at BYU called for punts while trailing with under 4 minutes left in the game. Those made not have been the optimal choices, but both coaches managed to get the stops and convert the stops into game winning scores.
Brian Kelly went for the punt on 4th and 3 from the USC 38.
Northern Illinois and CMU will share this week’s award. Northern Illinois punted on 4th and 3 from the CMU 35 yard line. This happened in a game where Jordan Lynch set the single game rushing record and averaged nearly 10 yards a carry on 32 carries! CMU shares the award by punting away to Northern Illinois with 5 minutes left while trailing by 13 points. Somewhere Gary Andersen is nodding in approval.
Bonus Dumb FG of the week: Arizona State took it to Washington early, and Washington was facing a 4th and goal from the 9 midway through the third trailing by 20 points. Rather than push to truly get back in the game, the Huskies opted for the chip shot field goal to cut it from a three score lead to a smaller three score lead. Going for in on 4th and Goal from the 9 is usually not a no-brainer, but when trailing by 20 in the second half, there isn’t a great case for the field goal.
5. State of the Stats
The Six Factors for all teams can still be found here
- Devin Gardner’s record setting day has him up to fifth in the season QB totals (+11.5) behind Bryce Petty (+14.7), Johnny Manziel (+13.7), Marcus Mariota (+12.5) and Aaron Murray (+11.9).
- No player has been more instrumental to his team’s success than Gardner who has accumulated a season high 3.8 wins on the season and is still in first in terms of team replacement value, with Michigan 117 points better when he rushes or passes versus an average play from any other player.
- Jeremy Gallon’s big day has moved him up to #4 on the season at +9.9 behind Antwan Goodley (+11.5), Mike Evans (+11.5) and Brandin Cooks (+10.4).
- Devin Funchess is inside the top 40 at +5.8 and is third among all players listed as tight ends behind Jace Amaro of Texas Tech and Eric Ebron of North Carolina.
- Next week I’ll dive into the details behind Michigan State, but the offense defense splits are getting absurd at this point. The Spartan offense is ranked 100+ in four of the five defense independent factors and the defense is top 10 on three metrics.
With no game this week, we’ll take a look at the season projection for Michigan. My numbers are more optimistic than most on the prospects for the remainder. I have Michigan as a favorite in all remaining games, with @NW, Nebraska and @Iowa listed as reasonable ~60% odds. My numbers aren’t big fans of either Michigan State or Ohio State, largely due to schedule concerns for both and offensive woes for Michigan State.
Next week I’ll dig more into the MSU numbers, but for now I have listed the original numbers as yellow and optimistic projections and a more realistic assessment (noted here as Pessimistic) of Michigan’s chances versus its two main rivals. Depending on your take on the games, this season is projecting to 9-10 wins, but with all the remaining games competitive, a lot of different outcomes are still on the table.
CIRCLING BACK: UPDATE ON AP POLL BEHAVIOR
Those of you that look at the polls as they are released each Sunday know that Michigan did in fact fall out of the Top 25 in the AP poll after the Penn State game. I thought, however, that this might be a good time to circle back and look at the overall picture now that we have lived through another full month of the season.
The summary data is below:
AVERAGE RANK (ALL VOTES)
The average position of Michigan’s AP vote has fallen from 14.597 to 16.836 in the last month, so basically two full points, which is considerable. The median ranking is 17thand for the time being, the mode is still 16thin the poll. The variance in the votes has increased significantly as well, from about 10 positions to nearly 15 positions now. Part of that is more votes, part of it is performance.
Below is the change in average position each week. I should state at this point that one thing I have done here is count the votes which put us in the range of the Top 25 for purposes of calculating these averages since there were still reasonably significant portions of the voters which did rank us. Still, the last two weeks are likely better stated as approximations.
Since the preseason poll, we have had quite the ride, as you can see.
Here is the tracking of the average ranking versus actual ranking and their differential. Again, the same note here – the last two weeks are approximate because of the number of “unranked” votes. I am still not sure exactly where I want to go with that differential, which I had start calling “The Hater Index”, but if it is showing anything here, it is showing that the voters are somehow kinder than the actual formula for calculating rank perhaps.
Here are the weekly distributions. These do show the number of occurrences of “unranked”, and indeed, you can see that a couple weeks ago, I started putting the actual counts on the graph. I have a separate table which contains the entire distribution, so if you are interested in precise figures, I can make them available and the next poll check will include numbers on all weekly distributions.
Here is the cumulative distribution of all votes (apologies in advance for the sizing - I can provide the direct link if anyone wants it):