...says Denzel Valentine of Big Ten Tourney favorite MSU, which is 5-7 in its last 12 games. Cumong, man.
With recruiting season starting earlier than ever, one of the most important skills for a coaching staff may be the ability to predict future success not only from graduating high school players, but sophomores or juniors who are still lacking that next growth spurt and have not played their final season of football. Don't misconsure my intent with the post, I am more than happy to have 10 commits at this point, it puts pressure on other schools we compete with. An earlier recruiting cycle just introduces more risk into an evaluation process that now necessitates that major programs accept that risk in order to get in early with top talent.
A great example of doing this well is Coach Beilein, who has proven many wrong by spotting talent much earlier than many others and subsequently benefitting by locking that player up only to have them greatly improve later in High School (e.g. Hardaway, Robinson). Alternatively, Texas had their recruiting class finished by Junior Day in the spring the last few years and have experienced mixed results. They have subsequently changed their recruiting philosophy to slow recruiting down for better evaluation (also of note is they changed their coaches as well so is may have not been a talent evaluation issue alone). Texas also has the luxury of having 10 of the Rivals Top 250 already locked up with just in state prospects alone so they can be a bit more choosy.
We won't know the results for a few year or how good our early evaluation skills are, but I am just glad the new staff has been aggressive early. I would rather roll the dice on the early big names and get momentum rather than sit back and have the pressure build as others announce commits.
From Tom VH: 2013 QB Shane Morris has committed to #Michigan while on a visit today. Just called to tell me he got done talking to Coach Hoke
More tweets from Tom below:
Morris wanted to know if Michigan was going to take another QB in this class, had a good talk, said Hoke went crazy.
Hoke told Shane Morris that they will be taking another QB, mentioned Drew Henson scenario, Morris said he's fine with it.
I spoke with Morris this morning about his visit today, he wasn't sure if he was going to commit or not, decided this was home.
The Rivals top 100 came out yesterday and there seemed to be a lot of confusion about the lack of midwest prospects. The complete 250 rankings are now out and it's looking a little more balanced. Here's a look at the top 250 prospects that Michigan is still in on with a little commentary as well.
|Overall Ranking||Position & Name||State||Star Ranking||Summary|
|#1||WR Dorial Green Beckham||MO||5 Star||Without an elite QB like Zeke Pike in this class don't get your hopes up.|
|#4||DT Eddie Goldman||DC||5 Star||Goldman still lists Michigan as a school of interest, but there won't be much to go on until he visits.|
|#6||DT Ellis McCarthy||CA||5 Star||McCarthy has expressed interest in Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed on the west coast.|
|#8||WR Stefon Diggs||MD||5 Star||Michigan is still in the conversation, but until he visits there might not be a lot to go off of.|
|#13||DE Noah Spence||PA||5 Star||Spence lists Michigan as a school of interest, but it will take a lot for them to reel him in.|
|#15||OL Andrus Peat||AZ||5 Star||Andrus' brother Todd committed to Nebraska in the 2011 class. I would be surprised if he picked Michigan.|
|#19||QB Gunner Kiel||IN||5 Star||Kiel took a visit to Michigan recently. He's very quiet as far as media attention. I have a feeling a school like Oklahoma has a good shot with him.|
|#28||OL Kyle Murphy||CA||4 Star||Murphy has expressed a lot of interest in Michigan. They have a decent shot, but again I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed on the west coast.|
|#29||DT Tommy Schutt||IL||4 Star||Schutt hasn't mentioned Michigan in awhile. If they can get him to visit they might have a chance, but it looks like they're on the outside for now.|
|#31||OL Zach Banner||WA||4 Star||Banner has expressed a lot of interest in Michigan, and plans on taking an official.|
|#32||WR Durron Neal||MO||4 Star||Just received a Michigan offer, we'll see how much interest he has.|
|#34||OL Erik Magnuson||CA||4 Star||Magnuson is very interested in Michigan, they have a good shot.|
|#37||ATH Devin Fuller||NJ||4 Star||Fuller has been relatively quiet lately, but he has maintained that he will visit Michigan in the summer. We'll know more once that happens.|
|#45||OL Jordan Simmons||CA||4 Star||Simmons has a lot of interest in Michigan. He's taking things slow for now. He has genuine interest in Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed out west.|
|#48||DE Ifeadi Odenigbo||OH||4 Star||Odenigbo has Michigan on the outside of his top group that includes Ohio State, Stanford, and Notre Dame. He plans on taking a visit to Ann Arbor in June, so we'll see if that changes anything.|
|#55||RB Keith Marshall||NC||4 Star||Marshall has Michigan in his top ten, but I believe he'll end up staying down south.|
|#60||DE Tyriq McCord||FL||4 Star||Just received a Michigan offer. I haven't spoken to him yet about where he's at.|
|#61||DE Se'von Pittman||OH||4 Star||Pittman has expressed interest in Michigan, and it seems like there's a shot.|
|#65||DB Deon Bush||FL||4 Star||Early on Bush had expressed some big time interest in Michigan, but it seems like that's slowed down. I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay in Florida.|
|#67||DT Jarron Jones||NY||4 Star||Jones is committed to PSU, but recently told an ESPN analyst that he still plans on visiting Michigan in the summer.|
|#72||QB Zeke Pike||KY||4 Star||I'll just keep him on here because it's not signing day yet.|
|#74||ATH DJ Foster||AZ||4 Star||DJ just received a Michigan offer. Oregon is probably his early leader, but he said he would like to visit Michigan.|
|#86||DE Adolphus Washington||OH||4 Star||Washington recently told me that he's wide open and really likes what the Michigan coaches are about. He'll be a package deal with teammate WR Dwayne Stanford. Ohio State may be tough to beat.|
|#88||DE Greg McMullen||OH||4 Star||Ohio State will be tough to beat for Greg as well. Anything can happen though with the NCAA investigation looming.|
|#93||WR Dwayne Stanford||OH||4 Star||Same situation as Adolphus Washington.|
|#96||WR Jordan Payton||CA||4 Star||Committed to USC, but will be taking looks at other schools. Michigan is a school that he really wanted to hear from.|
|#103||OL Max Tuerk||CA||4 Star||He spoke very highly of Michigan, and it seems like they have a shot. It's California though so he may end up staying closer to home.|
|#124||RB Bri'onte Dunn||OH||4 Star||Fresh off a visit to Michigan, Dunn is watching the NCAA investigation very closely at OSU. There's a lot that could happen here.|
|#130||OL Evan Boehm||MO||4 Star||Says he has interest in Michigan and would like to make it up for a visit. Until then I wouldn't get excited.|
|#134||WR Aaron Burbridge||MI||4 Star||Burbridge was just in Ann Arbor with now Michigan commits Devin Funchess, Mario Ojemudia, and James Ross. He will be back up with his mother within two weeks. He'll be choosing between Michigan and MSU. Michigan has a real shot.|
|#136||ATH Davonte Neal||AZ||4 Star||The Michigan coaches stopped in Scottsdale to check out Davonte this past week. No offer yet, which is surprising. I think he'll end up staying out west.|
|#137||OL Paul Thurston||CO||4 Star||Thurston actually just took a trip to Ann Arbor. I think Michigan has a very good chance here.|
|#139||DB Wayne Morgan||NY||4 Star||Morgan's coach has told me that Michigan and Rutgers are at the top of Wayne's list. Michigan has been making a surge, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have taken the lead over the hometown Scarlet Knights.|
|#140||DT Jaleel Johnson||IL||4 Star||Johnson was just offered by Michigan and plans to visit relatively soon. He's starting to gain some attention from Ohio State. I think Michigan has a real chance here.|
|#152||OL Kyle Dodson||OH||4 Star||Dodson has seen his recruitment take off with offers from Alabama and Auburn recently. He still maintains that Michigan is one of his top schools. I think they have a good chance.|
|#184||RB Greg Garmon||PA||4 Star||Garmon should be visiting Michigan in the next couple weeks. They are in the top three with UNC and Penn State, but I think Michigan is behind both.|
|#187||DB Armani Reeves||MA||4 Star||Reeves will be narrowing his list down soon, but has said that Michigan will be right in there. I think he has some schools in mind that stick out, and I also think Michigan is in pretty good standing right now.|
|#191||OL Shane Callahan||CO||4 Star||Callahan has mentioned Michigan as one of his favorites, and I think there's a good shot here.|
|#194||WR Amara Darboh||IA||4 Star||Darboh has told me that he's intrigued by Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick elsewhere.|
|#195||DB Terry Richardson||MI||4 Star||Terry could be deciding as early as next week. With his friends on board Michigan has a really good shot.|
|#209||OL Jordan Diamond||IL||4 Star||Diamond has been public with how he feels about Michigan. He plans on taking his time with everything, but Michigan is in great shape.|
|#222||DT Danny O'Brien||MI||4 Star||There's been a lot of questions about Danny lately and where he's at with Michigan. I think Michigan has backed off of him a little bit, but I'm not sure why.|
|#231||DT Tom Strobel||OH||4 Star||Strobel has said he wants to visit Michigan. If he does then they have a shot. Ohio State might be tough to beat.|
|#242||OL JJ Denman||PA||4 Star||Denman has Michigan in his top group and has said he really likes Michigan. I think they have a good shot with JJ.|
|#246||DT Ondre Pipkins||MO||4 Star||Pipkins really likes Michigan, has connections with former Michigan players, and still has relatives living there. Michigan has a very good chance with Ondre.|
By my count that's 45 prospects in the top 250 that Michigan is recruiting and has somewhat of a chance with. Before you ask, yes I'm surprised that Chris Wormley isn't in the top 250. That seems weird.
I think Michigan has a realistic chance with a good amount of these top 250 players. Among those are:
DT Ondre Pipkins, OL JJ Denman, OL Jordan Diamond, DB Terry Richardson, OL Shane Callahan, DB Armani Reeves, OL Kyle Dodson, DT Jaleel Johnson, DB Wayne Morgan, OL Paul Thurston, WR Aaron Burbridge, OL Erik Magnuson, and OL Zach Banner.
i actually think that luginbill isn't very good, but he's saying good things about us. so suddenly i like him.
Since there's not a lot going on today...
Apparently, 2011 Freshman RB Mike Blakely is going to be transferring from Florida. He enrolled early at Florida and today Florida released a statement saying he was leaving the program. Seems kinda strange to me considering he's only been there a few months, he's from FL, and was ranked #10 by Scout coming in this year for RB's. This is all according to The Ringer, and he still has to sit out a year even though he's technically not played.
Terry Richardson at 195
James Ross at 143
Joe Bolden 167
Aaron Burbridge 134
Danny O'brien 222
Ondre Pipkins 246
Jaleel Johnson 140
Jordan Diamond 209
Kyle Dodson 152
Brionte Dunn 124
Greg Garmon 184