things go poorly
As the season approaches, we start to see more and more "Where can I catch the game in (insert city here)" posts. This is meant as an informational posts to all new users out there who recently joined, as well as keeping (trying as I know this can be a lost cause sometimes) older members pleased.
For those that don't know an actual MGoBoard exists apart from the ticker on the right hand side, there is a very helpful Michigan bar locator thread. This thread can be found on the MGoBoard page or the mouseover on the tab above, that will help you find any bars that you might want to go to along with being able to ask for other locations. If you forget to look here and post on the board most people will be helpful, one or two will point you to the appropriate thread, and you will also get responses such as this everytime (similar to double posts).
Also, here is the link to the google maps page containing all (known) Michigan friendly bars.
I know this will be forgotten by next week, but maybe some people will remember. Also, these always got deleted really quickly last year with the response to just check the correct thread (from the Mods).
So I was at the Dayton Mall this morning (its about 55 miles SW of Columbus) and I saw they had the night game jersey at Cardboard Heros. I went in and checked out a few things, actually purchased the Michigan Grill cover for my birthday grill my wife got me this year. While checking out the store manager was on the phone with another location asking them if they had any of the night game jerseys left, he then said.. only youth, dang, all right thanks, then hung up...I then said to him you been selling alot of those night game michigan jerseys, He said that they were already out of most sizes and they were almost doubling the Ohio jersey sales....just that one design. I loved it. Just thought I would share.
Yesterday, 247 named Michigan's 2012 offensive line class the best in the country, while also giving the Wolverines honorable mention at tight end. Today, they ranked the defense, and prepare for a little debate: The defensive end group of Chris Wormley and Tom Strobel came in second behind Florida State, which is cool, but the linebackers (Joe Bolden, RJS, Kaleb Ringer, and James Ross) also came in second, after Alabama, which is far less cool from a Michigan fan's perspective. While the issue is certainly up for debate, and Alabama has a pretty fantastic group, 247 analyst Gerry Hamilton said 'Bama's position at the top was 'pretty much cut and dry'.
To his credit, in the comments, J.C. Shurburtt acknowledged that both have great classes, implying that the Tide's spot at the top wasn't as clear-cut as Hamilton suggested. Your (probably wildly-biased) thoughts, MGoBoarders?
He is a 3 star DB that plays for Cass Tech. He is picking his college tonight after the game against Harrison between Iowa, Wisconsin, and Toledo.
The reason I ask is because he is 6'3 200 pounds and runs a (reported) 4.5 and it's Cass Tech.
This is not based on any information, just my own speculation. Perhaps with Barnett gone the coaches might consider converting Keith Heitzman from defense to TE. He has good size, played the position in high school, and also played some fullback - scored a TD at the end of the Big 33 game at FB. He's a pretty good Rush End/WDE prospect, but we have good depth there and a much bigger need at TE.
College football is 7 days away. Michigan football is 9 days away. It is time for a little Big Ten preview. Last year my numbers pegged Michigan at 7-8 wins. This year you’ll have to read on to see my predictions for Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten.
The Nuts and Bolts
If you just want to see the picks and the nice standings you skip on ahead. If this section confuses you or brings about more questions than answers, you might want to head here.
My methodology is along the same lines of user Undefeated Dream Season of 1992’s great post from last week.
Begin with the PAN from the team’s previous season. Regress that season half-way to a team-specific mean, which for me is the five preceding years, then adjust for returning starters. Every team ends up with a rating which is then plugged into the full season schedule and simulated a whole bunch to produce average results for every team in the FBS.
I weight returning starters based on what I can find validation from in past seasons. I am continually tweaking this because it is very difficult to separate out, but my best method currently accounts only for returning QBs on offense. A returning signal caller is worth 1 extra point per game vs average and a loss of QB is a 1 point reduction, leaving a 2-point spread. Once accounting for a regression to the mean and the QB effect I can’t find any other correlation across returning offensive starters. On defense the break-even point is seven returners. Each player returning above or below seven is worth 0.8 points per game. Return all 11 and it’s 3.2 points per game. Return 3 from the previous season and it’s –3.2.
For prediction purposes I exclude special teams because their success or failure isn’t typically consistent from one year to the next like offense and defense are. Almost all teams are predicted to have 2+ losses because even though you know several teams are going to run the table or have just one loss, which teams is a challenge and my numbers are based on averages across multiple “plays” of a season.
The Power Poll
Michigan checks in right in the middle of the Big Ten at +4 predicted. I didn’t know what to do with Purdue at QB since they have just been a mess the last two years, but hedging to the negative is probably the right call. Those of you familiar with my numbers know that Northwestern has some sort of crazy luck/skill at exceeding their numbers year in and year out. They are the one team in my ratings out of 120 that just never work and it’s always to the Wildcats' favor.
It should also be noted that I had Wisconsin as a non-returner at QB even though they kind of do have a returner. If Russell Wilson is counted as a returner, Wisconsin jumps to the top of the table.
The power poll tells you how good I think a team is but to get a read on how they will be predicted to do you have to factor in opponents and game locations.
Woody Division (R. Wilson as returning starter)
|Team||W||L||Conf W||Conf L||Conf SOS||NC SOS||SOS|
If you drop Wisconsin down based on Wilson, Ohio State sneaks into the top spot.
SOS indicates the average PAN rating for all opponents on the season.
|Team||W||L||Conf W||Conf L||Conf SOS||NC SOS||SOS|
Michigan, at 8-4 (5-3 Big Ten) comes in second in the division, but Michigan, State and Iowa are all virtually indistinguishable in spots 2-4.
The Big Ten is highly bunched this season. Whether it’s Wisconsin, Ohio or Nebraska that makes it through the championship game depending on the scenario, I am projecting the Big Ten winner to have the most conference losses of any conference winner in 2011. [Ed-M: I'm predicting SEC fans will give us shit for that.]
Overall, the Big Ten is slotted third in my preseason conference ratings behind the SEC and what’s left of the Big XII. In conference strength of schedule, the Big Ten ranks fourth behind the Big XII, Pac 12 and SEC. The SEC is the only conference with a weaker non-conference lineup than the Big Ten.
Michigan’s strength of schedule is ranked 12th in the country, Notre Dame and Ohio [Ed-M: He means OSU; next thing you know Mathlete's gonna be pointing at things too.] are #1 and 2. The SEC has the seven toughest conference schedules among its ranks but its cupcake-loaded preseason leaves them lower overall.
Predicted winners from other conferences:
|Team||Conf||W||L||Conf W||Conf L||Conf SOS||NC SOS||SOS|
|W Virginia||Big East||10.2||1.8||5.8||1.2||0.7||-3.3||-1.0|
|Boise St||Mtn West||11.8||0.2||6.9||0.1||-2.1||3.1||0.1|
Four of my top five match the AP top five (Boise, Oklahoma, Oregon and Alabama) but beyond that I have a handful of teams I think are over/underrated: