OSU knew exactly what was coming on the 2 point conversion. I'll forever love the fact that Hoke went for two, but if it was Borges' call for the 2 point conversion he should be fired (I think he should still be, one game does not save your job). I'll probably be thinking about what would've happened if Devin had rolled out for the rest of the week non stop. And I know I'll never fully get over it. Shit.
Going into Saturday's game, it's pretty safe to say the overwhelming majority of us predicted we'd be crushed. The fact that we came 1 play away from taking a 1-point lead with 37 seconds left against the #3 team in the country tells me this is probably the best coaching job by the staff all year. But does that change the way you feel about 2014?
After Iowa, I saw quite a few predictions for 6-6 or 7-5 at best. Obviously Michigan has a brutal schedule and we just can't seem to find a way to win against good teams on the road. Does this performance give you hope for something better?
I don't want to seem like a Debbie Downer, especially after the utter heartbreak we all experienced yesterday, but I find it hard to believe this really changes anything. Borges's job is probably safe (though it may never have been in doubt anyway) and I still believe the guy is a terrible play-caller and game-schemer in general. Unfortunately, it looks like Hoke is putting all his eggs in Borges's basket, and it's very possible that the bottom falls out next year. But I don't claim to be a great football mind or have the foresight of The Knowledge, so I'm curious to know what the rest of you all think...
The most surprising thing about THE GAME yesterday was the complete reversal of what I and probably most of us assumed would be the story if we were in the game, that is we expected the defense to hold OSU while a sputtering offense scored just enough points to make it a game. But, of course we got a defense that could not stop Miller or Hyde, and an offense that matched OSU score for score. What happened to our defense ( keep it in mind I am not at all critical of Mattison ) ? I am hoping for the usual thoughtful and honest analysis we get here on a regular basis.
It seems that OSU will play in the championship game should they win. MSU could go to Rose Bowl. We are off to Gator.
Interesting. If Michigan plays like they did yesterday, they're gonna smack someone around in the bowl.
An old rivalry renewed. Yost vs McGugin.
|10/14/1905||Michigan 18 Vanderbilt 0||Regents Field|
|11/3/1906||Michigan 10 Vanderbilt 4||Ferry Field|
|11/2/1907||Michigan 8 Vanderbilt 0||Old Dudley Field|
|10/31/1908||Michigan 24 Vanderbilt 6||Ferry Field|
|10/28/1911||Michigan 9 Vanderbilt 8||Ferry Field|
|10/25/1913||Michigan 33 Vanderbilt 2||Old Dudley Field|
|10/10/1914||Michigan 23 Vanderbilt 3||Ferry Field|
|10/14/1922||Michigan 0 Vanderbilt 0||Dudley Field|
|10/13/1923||Michigan 3 Vanderbilt 0||Ferry Field|
|9/20/1969||Michigan 42 Vanderbilt 14||Michigan Stadium|
|9/2/2006||#14 Michigan 27 Vanderbilt 7||Michigan Stadium|
Michigan’s upset bid against Ohio State came up just short when Devin Gardner’s pass on the two-point conversion attempt was intercepted, leaving us with a disappointing 7-5 record on the regular season. This was not the first time Michigan was one play away from victory this season. Consider:
We had two attempts to make a game-winning field goal in overtime against Penn State but couldn’t.
We had the ball 58 yards from the end zone down by 4 points with two minutes left against Nebraska, but couldn’t pick up a first down.
We had the ball at the Iowa 39, down by 4, with 2 minutes left, but Devin Gardner fumbled.
If you change just one play at the end of these games, Michigan could by sitting at 11-1 right now and looking for a BCS bid. (MSU would unfortunately still be representing the Legends Division in the Big-10 Championship Game). On the other hand, Michigan escaped with some narrow victories this season as well:
If Michigan hadn’t stuffed Akron on two plays inside the 3 yard line, we would have lost.
If UConn could have managed a touchdown on their final drive, we would have lost.
Against Northwestern, If Brendan Gibbons had missed his field goals at the end of regulation or in overtime, we would have lost.
Just as easily as Michigan could have finished the season 11-1, we could be 4-8 and prepping ourselves from another episode of our least favorite reality TV show, Dave Brandon’s The Process. That’s a huge spread. I wanted to see how it stacked up to previous years. I’m looking at all the games in which just one late-game play could have changed the outcome.
Actual record: 7-5 (Bowl pending)
Best case: 11-1
Worst case: 4-8.
Range: 7 games
Actual record: 8-5
Best case: 10-3
Worst case: 5-7 (no bowl)
Range: 5 games
One play from a win: Couldn’t score go-ahead touchdown with 5 minutes left against OSU. Gave up touchdown with 11 seconds left against South Carolina.
One play from a loss: Stopped Air Force’s final drive to preserve 6-point win, kicked game winning field goal against MSU, Robinson to Roundtree bomb sets up tying field goal and overtime win against Northwestern.
2011: Hoke’s First Season
Actual record: 11-2
Best case: 12-1
Worst case: 8-5
Range: 4 games
One play from a win: Couldn’t score on 1st and goal from the 3 against Iowa (although Iowa let by 8, so a two-point conversion and overtime would have still been needed)
One play from a loss: Michigan gains, loses, and regains lead against Notre Dame all in last 72 seconds. Ohio State’s final drive ends with interception. Gibbons OT field goal beats Virginia Tech.
2010: RichRod’s Last Season
Actual record: 7-6
Best case: 7-6
Worst case: 4-8 (no bowl)
Range: 3 games
One play from a win: none(!) All 6 losses were by minimum of 10 points.
One play from a loss: Robinson scores with 27 seconds left against Notre Dame. Robinson scores with 17 seconds left against Indiana (had been tied). Michigan beats Illinois in triple overtime.
Actual record: 5-7
Best case: 8-4 (plus bowl eligibility)
Worst case: 3-10
Range: 5 games
One play from a win: OT loss to MSU, two-minute drill fails while down by 2 against Iowa, tying two-point conversion fails against Purdue.
One point from a loss: Forcier to Mathews gives Michigan lead with 11 seconds left against Notre Dame, Michigan takes lead with 2 minutes left and then intercepts Indiana’s last chance.
2008: RichRod’s First Season
Actual record: 3-9
Best case: 7-5 (plus bowl eligibility)
Worst case: 2-10
Range: 5 games
One play from a win: two minute drill fails down by 2 against Utah, game-tying 26-yard field goal misses against Toledo, Purdue drives the field for go-ahead touchdown in final minute, two minute drill fails down by 7 against Northwestern.
One play from a loss: Wisconsin’s game-tying two point conversion fails with 13 seconds left.
2007: Carr’s final season
Actual record: 9-4
Best case: 10-3
Worst case: 6-7
Range: 4 games
One play from a win: game winning field goal blocked against App State
One play from a loss: Penn State’s 2-minute drill fails with M leading by 5, MSU’s 2-minute drill fails with M leading by 4, Tebow goes 0/4 on Florida’s last chance drive.
Actual record: 11-2
Best case: 11-2
Worst case: 10-3
Range: 1 game
One play from a win: none (M/OSU was close, but never just one play away)
One play from a loss: PSU’s 2-minute drill fails with M leading by 7
Actual record: 7-5
Best case: 12-0(!)
Worst case: 4-7 (no bowl)
Range: 8 games
One play from a win: M’s two minute drill fails against Notre Dame, Wisconsin scores go-ahead TD with 24 seconds left, Minnesota kicks game-winning field goal with 5 seconds left, OSU scores go-ahead TD with 24 seconds left, Michigan’s desperation lateral-fest ends one lateral short of a touchdown against Nebraska.
One play from a loss: Michigan beats MSU in overtime, Henne to Manningham with 1 second left beats PSU, Michigan beats Iowa in overtime
Notes: This season’s record of 7 games decided in the final minutes is something we’ve not seen for 8 years. Those critical of Brady Hoke may compare this year’s 7-5 record to the 7-6 season that got Rich Rodriguez fired. However, it’s worth noting that unlike this year (where every game went down to the wire except MSU), the 2010 season featured losses by 10, 10, 17, 20, 30, and 38 points. A better comparison may be the 2005 season (known then as “The Year of Infinite Pain”) in which 8 of the games went down to the wire, including all 5 of the losses. Those looking for reasons for optimism may be reminded that the year following that, Michigan recovered and only a narrow loss to OSU (plus politicking by Urban Meyer) cost Michigan a spot in the National Championship game.