i like 'em both
[Ed-M: diary bbbbbump]
Back in August, MGoUser "Undefeated dream season of 1992" did this fabulous diary on predicting a team's FEI rankings using previous seasons rankings and combining it with regression to the mean, returning starters (and bonus to an offense for bring a quarterback back), coaching change, and Rivals star rankings over the previous three recruiting cycles. This model predicted that Michigan's offense would settle in at #16, down from #2, and the defense would move up from #108 to #71.
Here we are after Week 7. The first set of FEI rankings specific to offense and defense have been released. Our Wolverines are ranked #15 on offense and surprising #17 on defense. The offense is right where UDSO92 predicted it would be (well, one spot higher). However, how did Michigan so dramatically improve on defense when it was only supposed to jump up to around #71, especially considering that the model has generally found that coordinator changes generally have a negative affect on the defense? Let's look at what UDSO92 himself had to say at the time:
One year is not definitive (except in the case of GERG, natch); in fact, a team that woefully underperformed the previous year could look great just by rebounding the following year.
What exactly were the expectations of the Michigan defense in 2010? The 2010 defense was predicted by the model to finish 46th. GEEEEEEEEERG indeed. Futher, over the period of 3 years, Michigan's defense underperformed by a whooping 37 positions of FEI. Now while this might not be an empirically correct thing to do, let's assume for a moment that we can adjust Michigan's 2011 FEI expectation. Let's say that perhaps Michigan was an exception to the general rule that changing coordinators hurts your defense in the immediate season, just because of how horrendously poorly the defense appeared to have been coached. Using this idea, Michigan's predicted finish of 71st can be improved to 34th (the difference of the 37 positions) by removing a product of the underperformance (GEEEEEEEEERG). Considering the previous seasons projection, the fact that Michigan has a good recruiting profile, along with 9 returning starters, this seems like a reasonable enough projection.
The rest of the increase up to 17th, while it may be an early season abberation, is quite possibly due to the fact that our new Greg, Greg Mattison, is not only a good coordinator, but an excellent one and is not a stuffed animal waving lunatic. Now, had someone tried predicting this at the beginning of the year, they certainly would have been called crazy. However, I figured it would be nice to throw out that little bit of overperformance as some actual evidence that not only was the previous coaching staff bad at coaching defense, but that the current one is good (based on the fact that they are overperforming their expectation).
That being said, the offense is exactly where it was figured to be, so despite our disappointment over the MSU game, let's remember that it was the first real road test (Northwestern was not a hostile crowd), and against FEI's #5 rated defense.
Let's take a look at the 7 opponents Michigan has faced thus far to see how they rank compared to our teams performance against them.
|Team||Michigan Yards||Avg/play||Opp Defense (FEI)||Opp Yards||Avg/play||Opp Offense (FEI)|
And now for what we'll be up against the next five weeks after we return from a bye.
|Team||Offense FEI||Defense FEI|
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Also, mods, if you want, please move this to diaries if you deem it worthy. I would put it there myself, but I typed the whole thing out on the Board and can't copy for some reason. So I'm just gonna post it here. Move as you deem worthy/not-worthy.
Lions' Ronnie Brown Trade Voided by NFL
There's a reason the Detroit Lions did not announce anything about the . They didn't want to jump the gun in case something came up before all of the physicals had been passed and everything was official. trade
As it turns out, that was a good decision, because Adam Schefter is reporting that something has in fact come up. According to Schefter, the trade has been voided because Jerome Harrison "had health issues." Whether or not that means Harrison failed his physical I'm not sure, but it really doesn't matter. What does matter is Harrison is still a Lion and Brown is still an Eagle.
Not a good sign for the Lion rushing game.
Bye week in addition to this story seeming so ridiculous about Gholston being called Tom and that was what shifted him to MSU. I decided to give it a think so see if I could solve this mystery. Tried to get out of the box. Not sure if you have any thoughts.
· Last year’s staff not familiar with “defense” and players of this strange craft, assumed he was 2012 recruit Tom Strobel.
· Gholston is a dead ringer for “Tomi”, GERG’s stylist who obviously was around the program frequently. Easy mistake to make.
· Blame it on Hilfiger clothes, their name is all over place. Gibson probably assumed the logo was a name tag.
· Had paranormal experience in Schembechler Hall, thought Fritz Crisler was talking to him and calling him Tom. Everybody knows Fritz only talks to Harmon when the lights are turned off. What an idiot, no wonder he is a Sparty.
· Looked directly into Tom Hammond’s eyes while watching the ND game on TV that weekend. Lost all track of space, time and identity as he was assimilated with the Hammond. See also Borg.
· Small children mistook him for Tommy Amaker, whom they feared had come back to take over the basketball program. They fled in tears screaming for the bad man to go away.
· Had an episode while watching cartoons the morning of the visit. Voices in the TV told him, Tom, to kill Jerry, or Denard, which does not start with a “J” but whatever. The voices said that this was the only way for Tom. Later that morning, Mr. Rogers told him to punch a Wolverine in the throat to save the Neighborhood of Make-Believe. Mr. Rogers also said engineering students at MSU count as well for punching, which I suppose is obvious to any MSU football player.
Star CB Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu and leading rusher Spencer Ware are suspended for unknown team violations. This levels the playing field somewhat against Auburn and should make this game more interesting.