football

Brady Hoke is the head football coach at the University of Michigan.  All Michigan fans wish him and the team (or should) nothing but the greatest success.  However, several of us are not convinced that he will deliver on that hope.  We're not rooting for him to fail; we're not trying to undermine him; we're not saying he shouldn't have taken the job; and we're not criticizing him as an individual.  We're expressing disappointment and will ultimately move on.

At his press conference Hoke was asked whether Michigan was still an elite job, still an elite program.  He expressed incredulity at the notion that a sane minded person could consider Michigan anything else.  And we all feel that way about Michigan.  For that reason, we expected the university to hire a football coach whose track record indicates with a high degree of certainty that he would succeed at Michigan.

Let's take a step back to the moment before Hoke was hired and consider whether Bob Stoops would have been a good hire.  He has won a national championship, recruited nationally at a place that doesn't produce a lot of talent regionally, continually produces teams that win conference championships and contend for national championships and has done so while avoiding NCAA violations.  In short, there's no reason to believe that if he coached at Michigan that he couldn't maintain that level of success.  On the contrary, the evidence indicates that but for some unforeseen circumstances, the probability of his success at Michigan would have been high.

Let's next consider Tim Brewster.  Brewster failed to recruit at Minnesota, he produced consistently poor teams and his coaching performance prior to Minnesota contains no evidence that he would have been a success had he been hired by Michigan.

In short, most all candidates fall somewhere on the scale between Brewster and Stoops.  They all come with a certain amount of evidence that increases or decreases the likelihood that they could win at Michigan.

If we believe that Michigan is an elite job, we should also believe that Michigan is capable of hiring a coach who comes with lots of evidence that he could win at Michigan.  Brady Hoke has some - he has the support of the administration and former players, he produced two great turnarounds and SDSU and Ball St. - but Bob Stoops has more. 

I'm not asking for Bob Stoops; that's not the point of this diary.  Rather I'm saying that for those of us disappointed in the hire, we had an idea as to the quantum of evidence we wanted to see that forecasted with high probability that the new coach would be a success, and we believe that Hoke is below that line, or that at a minimum, his resume contains less evidence than those of other potential candidates.  For that reason, we are disappointed.

Say you really want to go to Harvard, and apply to there and Yale and only get into Yale.  You go to Yale.  You try to make the best of the situation.  But that doesn't mean you don't have some disappointment that you didn't get into Harvard.  As it is with Hoke.  We'll make the best of the situation and support Michigan Football.  But it's ok to express some disappointment.

As many have noted, prior success is not always indicative of future performance.  Brady Hoke will have every opportunity to prove that whatever his resume, he has what it takes to win at Michigan.  And those of us skeptical that he can do so will cheer for him with the same vigor as those most convinced that his resume is outstanding. 

So, rather than discussing whether everyone on this board is "all in" or whether people have a right to criticize the hire, I wanted to start a more constructive discussion:

Who do we think will end up on Hoke's staff?

We already know the OC - Borges.  If his team's offense against Navy is any indication, then he runs a fairly dynamic (albeit "old school") offense that should be able to fit Denard and company.

It looks like he will also bring his S&C guy who, while not possessing wolves, is pretty highly regarded.  I loved Barwis, but in 3 years, I didn't think that our players looked any faster or stronger or were less susceptible to injury.  Not a criticism on Barwis, but I think that the hype maching went out of control because of his awesome personality. 

So, who else do people think will join?

I am expecting Loeffler, but that is purely based upon his prior employment here and the fact that he is well-regarded.

Any thoughts?  Inside info?

Like many of you, my biggest concern with this transition is that we will go backwards on offense for several years while Hoke and Borges get "their guys".  I am only slightly reassured when I hear Hoke say Denard can be his quarterback, because Borges has never had a running QB.  

Can the coaches out there tell me if this would be a realistic approach?  Could Borges sit down with the offensive team and tell them that they would build the play book together?  Let Denard and co. put in one play from the current play book  and teach Borges how it works and then Borges could put in one of his own and teach them how it works.

It seems to me this approach would have several advantages:

1. Smoother the transition for the players
2. Shortened learning curve.
3. It would limit transfers.
4. Contribute new ideas to Borges' playbook.
5. Potentially maintain a somewhat explosive offense.

Over the next few seasons, Borges could remove the plays he didn't like, as the current roster graduates, and keep the ones that worked in his system.

Is this realistic?

My friends down here in the SEC give me loads of crap but even I found this hilarious.

http://www.sportspickle.com/opinion/4722/les-miles-application-for-michi...

*Sorry if it's already been posted.

So, kinda weird that Vlad Emilien would be breaking this news, but per his twitter account @Vlad_E07:

"wow just heard the mike barwis went to san diego state university to be the strength conditioning coach out there.. hmm thats cool"

Edit:  Devin Gardner confirmed via twitter that Barwis is gone.

why did LSU Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton just leave the bayou to become the offensive coordinator at Maryland?  Same job, inferior conference, new head coach.

http://www.lsu.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1176089