will be michigan's highest pick in a while
First thing's first, I think I did a pretty thorough job, but if you think any of my numbers need to be corrected, just say so in the comments. This can be a group effort.
One of the most common objections heard from Michigan fans with respect to the potential hiring of Les Miles is that he's demonstrated a penchant for oversigning. ESPN's Outside the Lines produced a segment about a month ago widely linked to on this board highlighting LSU's use of this practice under Miles. If it matters to you my take is that it's abhorrent that a head coach making a multimillion dollar salary and with tremendous institutional backing could go into some poor kid's home and sell the promise of a college degree and then spit the kid out when he becomes expendable. I would hate seeing someone who'd do that become the head coach at my alma mater both for the sake of the kids he'd recruit and for the fact that he'd be the most public face of my school. Game theory be damned.
I got into an argument with psychomatt earlier about whether LSU was set to oversign again this year. I cited http://www.oversigning.com which says LSU currently has 8 more commits than it will have a place for. Psychomatt disputed these numbers. So, fair enough. Let's take a closer look.
As chronicled by the OTL report LSU trimmed down right before fall camp to get down to 85 scholarship players to start the year. Since, one player was dismissed from the team and none have transferred. The player dismissed was fullback Dominique Allen. He had a scholarship, was dismissed for an undisclosed violation of team rules, and Miles noted interestingly at the press conference that walk on James Stampley was clearly the number 1 fullback anyway.
That gets us down to 84.
Now, to the roster analysis:
There are 9 outgoing scholarship seniors. They are: Terrence Tolliver, Lezerius Levingston, Josh Jasper, Derek Helton, Richard Murphy, Jai Eugene, Joseph Barksdale, Kelvin Sheppard and Drake Nevis.
All other seniors on LSUs website are either expressly denoted as walk ons or have completely blank bio pages and no varsity letters. Exception: Dan Graff, listed as a player-coach (?!) who joined the team as a sophomore walk on. I'm confident in counting on him still being a walk on.
Potential 5th year candidates
- Josh Dworaczyk- has started every game for them at left guard this year. Will almost certainly return.
- Will Blackwell- was the starter at the beginning of the year at right guard before injuring his ankle. He recovered to play in the final 3 games. Probably back.
- T-Bob Hebert- took over Blackwell's starting job when he went down and spent the previous year starting at center. As a multi year starter he'll be welcomed back.
- Stevan Ridley- LSU's top back this year getting 249 carries and 1,147 yards. If he wants to come back he can. And he probably will come back at least according to where he's currently projected to go in the draft and to general message board scuttlebutt.
- Stefoin Francois- Started every game at linebacker, will be welcomed back. Not thought to be a draft risk.
- Ron Brooks- backup cornerback/strong safety and contributor on special teams. Played all 12 games, but started none. Put up decent numbers, though, 28 tackles 5 tfls and 3 PBUs. With Peterson leaving on the one hand and the number crunch on the other let's give him a 50-50 chance of being back.
- Jarrett Lee- 2nd string qb. It might be conceivable they'd let him go, but because Miles in his infinite wisdom, put Russell Shepard at wide receiver (seriously if he comes RIP Dilithium), their current 3rd string option is a freshman walk on. Zac Mettenberger (highly touted Georgia castoff) is about to come aboard though. But still, who likes having a redshirt freshman walk on as your 3rd string? Lee's getting invited back.
- Jordan Jefferson- Starting qb. He's welcome back.
- Patrick Peterson- Thorpe winner. All world cb. NFL. Gone.
- Alex Russian- Cone like tight end turned backup snapper. It's a wonder he isn't gone already.
- Mitch Joseph- in LSU's 3 man tight end rotation. Started 4 games this year. Let's say it's 50-50.
Only case with any ambiguity is Dennis Johnson, but after going through message board stuff I'm 90% sure he's a walk on.
So giving Les more wiggle room than he probably deserves let's count the maybes as both out. So in total we'll say that's 4 RS juniors not coming back. Obviously that +9 seniors +1 free schollie = 14.
Potential 3rd year draft entrants
I couldn't find any 3rd year guys LSU fans seem worried about losing early to the draft. Correct me if I'm wrong.
As Brian explained here , outside Alabama, medical hardships aren't very common. In fact, between 2008 and 2010 SEC schools that don't love houndstooth on average gave out slightly more than one each.
Recruits who fail to enroll
LSU currently has 21 commitments and is still in on some prospects. Let's hypothesize they don't gain or lose any commits between now and signing day, although it's probably more likely they gain. From 2005-2010 (Les' tenure) LSU has signed 144 players of whom 135 qualified academically and enrolled.* That makes for a 93.75% matriculation rate. Obviously using this rate to project into the future has its limitations, Miles might have changed his recruiting philosophy and taken on more high risk kids this year, but given how much he oversigned by last year and that 28 of the 29 in that class enrolled, I doubt a huge variation is likely this year. Anyway, using that figure we can project that 1 player not qualifying is the most likely outcome, having 2 not qualify is the second most likely outcome and having none fail to qualify the 3rd most likely outcome. Let's go with taking one out since it's the most likely statistically and they might end up with more commitments anyway.
You don't really need me for this, it's simple math. But giving Les more wiggle room than he probably deserves this is what we get 84 - 9 - 4 + 20 = 91. Miles is looking at being 6 above the limit right now.
Is this really a big deal?
I can hear people say it now: But, but, that's not accounting for players who choose to transfer voluntarily or make boneheaded decisions in the offseason and get kicked out justifiably!
To reply: Yes
Any oversigning analysis shouldn't account for that. For a coach to take a kid's signature, or even a commitment, when he doesn't have a spot for him is fundamentally wrong. Even if he thinks it's more likely than not that the spot he needs will free up in time, he promised a player much younger than him, usually much poorer and less powerful the opportunity to get a degree and play the sport he loves and by accepting that signature or commitment he doesn't have a spot for he's putting that at risk. It's grossly reckless and highly irresponsible. No institution of higher learning should be associated with it. And really, if a football program ends up a few scholarship players short is it the worst thing in the world? Those scholarships would instead go to deserving walk ons. And what's wrong with that?
Angelique (Detroit Free Press) has put out an update this evening (morning?) stating that a source has told the paper that Michigan will meet with Miles on Tuesday:
ESPN.com reported Saturday night that according to sources, Michigan has expressed interest in talking to Miles. They are expected to meet on Tuesday, a source with knowledge of the situation told The Detroit News on Sunday.
(bold added for emphasis)
This is the man I want as our next football coach:
Or maybe even this guy:
Now don't get me wrong, in no way am I advocating genocide, the atocities they caused, or the innocent people they killed. I'm just saying that I want the next head coach to be crazy. Like completely batshit crazy. I want a paranoid schizophrenic that thinks the alumni and fans are out to get them from day one. Because, simply put, for whoever coaches here that isn't named Jim Harbaugh, they will be. I want someone that has their finger on the button and doesn't give two shits what the rest of the world thinks, they'll start WWIII just for kicks. The uncertainty as to their next move will keep opponents afraid and on their heels, and we will move in and attack the jugular.
If that kind of crazy comes in the form of the Mad Hatter, grass eating, voodoo practicing Les Miles, so be it. Do what you have to do, and bring the witch doctor with you from the Bayou. But man that voodoo better be strong when he shows up in Ann Arbor. If it comes in the form of the Mad Scientist, lock players in dark enclosed spaces and lose your job Mike Leach, I'm fine with that too. If it comes in the form of practicing at unheard tempos to DJ'd music and other distractions so that you melt the brains of opposing teams come game time a'la Chip Kelly, even better.
I want someone who doesn't give a damn about the possibility of losing their job. I want someone who will pull out all the stops, throw in trick plays out to wazoo, like lining up offensive linemen as WR, fake punts, going for it on 4th and 3, statue of libery plays, and anything their wild minds can devise. I want someone with nothing to lose.
(Insert cheap cliche' line about dog in backed into corner being dangerous) I don't want that dog simply to be dangerous. I want that dog to be fucking rabid. I want to strike fear into the hearts of teams that oppose us. Uncertainty will be the weapon we use from here on out. Fear will keep the Big Ten in line, fear of our football program.
So according to a completely unfounded rumor on twitter Bob Stoops has been offered the Michigan job.
Arguably the most tradition-rich program in the nation, Michigan should leave no slippery rock unturned in its return to prosperity. It is for this reason that I choose to examine some of the lesser-known candidates. In addition, most people on this board are currently barking mad and could use a step back from the Heath Ledger. Without further ado, a list of unworthy candidates!
Experience: Offensive Coordinator Jets/Patriots, Notre Dame Head Coach, Your local buffet.
Pros: Weis would put Michigan on the map. Literally.
Cons: University is not big enough for both him and Barwis, but mostly him.
Interest: Rumors claim that his dream job is to consume a collegiate offensive line.
Little known fact: Once sued doctors who performed a gastric bypass on him and lost.
Outlook: Probably the best candidate on this list. Wow.
John L. Smith
Experience: Head Coach of Idaho, Utah State, Louisville, and Michigan State.
Pros: His special teams unit at Arkansas came close to icing a game against Ohio State.
Cons: Known for giving away games against Ohio State.
Interest: Telling people to "snap out of it"
Little Known Fact: Climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro and ran with the bulls.
Outlook: Would likely continue current status of the program. Seasons would begin on high notes and end with suicide notes. Hopefully that would represent a decline, but I don't know anymore.
Experience: Attained "tenure" as Head Coach of Penn State
Pros: Big name, iconic coach who has a proven track record of occasional success.
Cons: The shock of receiving the offer and the ferocity of the response will definitely kill him.
Interest: Calling recruits to inform them that he is still alive.
Little Known Fact: Died three years ago.
Outlook: Poor. Paterno is likely to have trouble noticing that Denard Robinson exists, considering the speed of his movement. On a positive note, he would (in this hypothetical situation) deny his request for transfer.
Experience: Midwest connections, Predicting Les Miles to Michigan
Pros: Would finally have inside information on Michigan's next coach
Cons: Would probably still announce Miles to Michigan
Interest: Ohio State, eating Musburgers, secret Les Miles infatuation.
Little Known Fact: Aspires to have the hair of GERG
Outlook: Destined to become the Lou Holtz circa ESPN of Michigan. Will predict Michigan to win twenty national titles in sixteen years, or some shit.
Experience: Great hair and hides a gut like a true professional.
Pros: A Michigan man of the coaching pedigree of Rodriguez
Cons: Likely costed Rodriguez a job and fueled the fire of this coaching change chaos
Interest: Collecting tears of distraught Michigan fans
Outlook: Robinson just can't be as bad as he was at Michigan. Was it the result of being underpaid? Was it the schematic conflict with Rich? He sure does look good though. Should make silver fox cubs with Anderson Cooper.
We have come to the winter of our discontent. We are headless as a program, in shambles by means of personnel, and facing a mass recruiting exodus the likes of which haven't been seen before, and looking a decade of straight losses to those-who-must-not-be-named to the south.
Alas, yet we are Michigan. We survived The Horror to defeat the defending National Champions and their golden boy Heisman trophy winner. We overcame a 19 point deficit at halftime to then-ranked number 9 Wisconsin to emerge victorious in the 500th game in the Big House. We retained the Brown Jug. We are Michigan, and we will rise once again. The only ones who can defeat us is ourselves. Perhaps a scene from one of the greatest movies of all time says it best:
"What, over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"
"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
-"Germans?" -"Forget it he's rolling"
"And it ain't over now!"
'Cause when the going gets tough...
(Patriotic instrumental music)
the tough get going! Who's with me?
Let's go! Come on!
(Tense instrumental music)
What the fuck happened to the Michigan l used to know?
Where's the spirit?
Where's the guts?
This could be the greatest night of our lives...
but you're gonna let it be the worst.
"We're afraid to go with you, DB. We might get in trouble."
(Shouting) Just kiss my ass from now on.
Not me! l won't take this! Tressel is a dead man!
-Dantonio: dead! Paterno---Dead.
DB's right. Psychotic...but absolutely right.
We got to take these bastards.
We could fight them with conventional weapons.
That could take years...cost millions of lives.
In this case...
I think we have to go all out.
I think this situation absolutely requires...
a really futile and stupid gesture...
be done on somebody's part.
We're just the guys to do it.
Let's do it.
Let's do it!
Go! Go! Go!
We all need to run screaming out of that house, build our death machine behind whoever steps up to lead this really futile and stupid gesture, and take the fight back to the field. We are Michigan. HAIL