that is nice bonus change
Thanks to user Feat of Clay for helping name this segment. This one comes with lots of fun numbers to look at from an instant classic but also with lots of question marks. Will get to the good stuff first.
Win Percent Added
Let’s go straight to the chart:
Pretty nice job by BlueSeoul in his estimate on this. Michigan saw two steady descents in win probability over the first three quarters with only the first bomb to Hemingway to nudge the numbers up. It wasn’t until Michigan pulled within a field goal that the odds got above 30% for the first time since the opening Notre Dame drive.
The WPA graph shows the flow through time but has a lot of approximations. Since this game was so spectacular, I decided to go back to all of the major lows then highs to see what the odds of winning were for each specific situation based on the last 9 seasons (the numbers will differ slightly from above in some cases):
Notre Dame scores first (0-7): 29%
Notre Dame extends lead to 14 (0-14): 9%
Michigan gets on the board (7-14): 28%
Half-time (7-17): 17%
Notre Dame Scores Again (7-24): 6%
Michigan scores to start the 4th (14-24): 13%
Michigan cuts it to a field goal: (21-24): 21%
Denard throws a pick in the end zone (21-24): 17%
Michigan gets the stop (21-24): 28%
Michigan completes comeback #1 (28-24): 77%
Michigan allows comeback #2 (28-31): 8%
Epic comeback #3 (35-31): 99.999% (allowing for Stanford-Cal)
Since 2003 I have 38 cases where a team was down 3 with the ball with less than a minute left and first ten at their own 20 (give or take ten yards). Of those 38 cases, 35 times the team failed to score or lost in overtime. In 3 of those cases, the team was able to kick a field goal and win overtime, including Dooley Premature Handshake Pt 2 last year against North Carolina. Michigan is the only team that was able to win in regulation under these conditions. The closest I could find were three times when teams received the ball down by 3 with 1:15-1:20 left on the clock and went on to score.
Arizona State actually came close, scoring in 31 seconds and giving the ball back to Purdue with 43 seconds left in the 2004 Sun Bowl, but they had more time if they needed it. Strangely enough, the other two times were both done by Arkansas State in 2006 and 2007.
Factoring in fumble and interception returns, Michigan is currently first in the nation in turnover PAN with 14.4 pts/game net between the offense and defense. This is obviously unsustainable. Last year UConn finished first overall with a season average of +4.9 points per game in turnover value.
The good news is obviously that Michigan is generating a lot of points off of turnovers through two games. The bad news is that it is unsustainable and Michigan will need to find other ways of generating points than what they have so far.
The turnover-prone Irish sit at –15.2 PPG through two games. It should be noted that for all the mileage gotten out of mocking the Irish’s turnover failures through two games, Michigan has been nearly as strong to the positive. Neither trend can continue at their current magnitude, but let’s hope they do.
Eastern Michigan Preview
Eastern Michigan is one of four teams that have yet to play a game against an FBS team this season. All numbers for them will be based on 2010. Michigan’s numbers for 2011 are still not opponent adjusted.
Michigan Rush Offense:
Michigan 2010: +6
Michigan 2011: +3
E Michigan defense 2010: -4
Michigan Pass Offense:
Michigan 2010: +3
Michigan 2011: +6
E Michigan defense 2010: -8
E Michigan Rush Offense:
Michigan defense 2010: –3
Michigan defense 2011:
E Michigan 2010: +0
E Michigan Pass Offense:
Michigan defense 2010: -3
Michigan defense 2011:
E Michigan 2010: -1
Michigan 2010: -2
Michigan 2011: -2
E Michigan: –3
Prediction: Michigan by 21, 98% chance of victory (although my numbers typically underestimate blowouts)
Luckily for Michigan they have three games in a row that are at home and against teams that they should be able to win while working out some kinks. As you’ll see in my Big Ten team rankings below, the numbers are not kind to Michigan so far. The bad news is that the offense is down, the defense hasn’t show much bounce on a down by down basis and they are heavily dependent on an unsustainable turnover margin.
The good news is that they have Denard Robinson, are 2-0 and have two accomplished coordinators behind the wheels of the offense and defense. It will be critical to come away from the next month with wins in hand and a lot of holes fixed. If the coordinators live up to their reputations Michigan should be looking at a strong first year under Hoke and a stepping stone to a high expectations 2012. If they don’t it could well turn into 2009 Part 2 with a quick start thwarted by an offense that is good but incapable of hitting Ludicrous Speed and a defense that is undermanned.
Denard Owns The Irish: Denard has almost a thousand yards in two games against the Irish. The number one yardage total for one player against one team in my DB is Dan LeFevour at Central Michigan against Ball St with 1,575 yards. Brady Quinn against Purdue is second. Adam Weber at Minnesota holds the top two within the Big Ten with nearly 1,200 yards against both Northwestern and Wisconsin.
Rush Defense by half (via @MeanChuckieB): Big swing from first half to second half. –4 in the first 30 and +4 in the second 30 minutes with a couple of big 3rd down stops.
Short Drives (via @drboud): Michigan’s longest drive of the day was 5 plays. 15 teams have done that in a game since 2003. Of them, only four have scored more than a single touchdown with Michigan’s 35 points far exceeding the previous high set by Boise St against Hawaii in 2003. Coincidently, the only other time the 5 plays or less on every drive has happened this year was also in Michigan last week with Michigan State’s domination of Florida Atlantic.
ND offense 2011 vs 2010 (via @doughelmreich): Eliminating the turnover portion and this year’s version of the Irish offense is far surpassing last year’s performance. Without adjusting for opponents and removing turnovers, last year the Irish were +5 and this year they are at +13. Most of the jump has been in the passing game with has gone from +4 to +10. They are identical to last year on first down, but significantly higher on 2nd and 3rd downs, especially in medium and long yardage situations.
My Top 5: 1. Oklahoma … State 2. Alabama 3. Boise St 4. Oklahoma 5. Wisconsin
Rest of the Big Ten: 9-Nebraska 13-Ohio St 14-Michigan St 23-Illinois 42-Penn St 58-Michigan 77-Northwestern 79-Iowa 88-Purdue 100-Minnesota 106-Indiana
Sparty hopes for Michigan to lose no matter the context.
Hoke does not (the following quote is in regards to the MSU-ND game this weekend).
(The rest of this freep article discusses EMU and ND in general terms. Not much more to read, so try to not click unless you feel a deep curiosity about info you can likely find at other sources . http://www.freep.com/article/20110915/SPORTS06/110915016/Brady-Hoke-will-root-Big-Ten-Michigan-State-Notre-Dame-game )
"I think you always root for the Big Ten," Hoke said this morning on his weekly appearance on WXYT-FM (97.1). "We're a great conference. I'll probably look at it a little more critically because of that test we have down the road with them. They're two good football teams there, we've got two good football teams playing at 12:01 (p.m) here Saturday."
Thanks to MaizeNBlueJ for recording this. If you want to keep it forever and ever, the torrent is on mgovideo.
One more article before I turn in for the night. This one comes from Doug Harris of the Dayton Daily News:
I was talking before the football season to University of Dayton defensive coordinator Landon Fox, who once was a graduate assistant under Brady Hoke, about whether he felt the new Michigan head coach could flip the Ohio State rivalry in the Wolverines’ favor.
Fox had no doubts.
“He’s a great recruiter. And once you get players, the rest is easy,” he said.
I was skeptical then, but I’m not anymore after watching the Wolverines’ implausible win against Notre Dame last Saturday when they scored two touchdowns in the final 72 seconds.
Yes, they still have issues on defense, but that’s not likely to last. Hoke has assembled the nation’s No. 3 recruiting class for 2012, and I imagine the Wolverines have gotten a significant jump with juniors for 2013.
ESPN basically gave them a one-hour commercial after that prime-time game, frequently going back during “SportsCenter” for live look-ins. And announcers Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit marveled at how the 114,000 fans wouldn’t leave.
Click HERE for the rest of the article.
Stumbled across this while perusing the interwebs this morning. Any merit to what this guy is saying?
Say it isn't so.
Please say that after what happened at Ohio State, the University of Michigan isn't letting its football players keep the throwback jerseys worn in the Wolverines' last-second victory over Notre Dame.
No athletic director who pays attention to the world, and conference, around him would say "yes" to such a request.
And yet, Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon, after checking with his NCAA compliance officer, acceded to the players' wishes. They get to keep the jerseys.
While this is not a violation of NCAA rules, it is a violation of common sense.
Don't people learn?
The mess at Ohio State, which cost football coach Jim Tressel his job and seems likely to put the Buckeyes on probation, began with players trading memorabilia for tattoos.
Several Michigan players say nothing untoward is going to happen, that they will keep the jerseys forever in order to preserve the memory of their victory.
OK. That's a nice thought. But why put temptation in front of players?
Does anyone think well-heeled Wolverines boosters will resist the urge to line players' pockets with cash while getting a "legacy" jersey to frame and hang on their den walls?
Even if you believe players have the right to sell whatever they are given, the NCAA disagrees. If you want players to avoid violating rules by selling jerseys, don't give them jerseys to sell.
Click HERE to read the rest of the column.
According to Sports by Brooks, OSU's freshman QB Braxton Miller was one of the additional two players in attendance at the infamous charity event where envelopes of cash were handed out. No evidence that Miller received any money, but for some reason OSU redacted his name from their NCAA filing that was released to the public:
The two “current student-athletes” referred to by Ohio State in its report to the NCAA - with the names redacted by the the school in its release of the report to the media - are Braxton Miller and current Buckeye football player Nathan Williams.
Williams also sat out of the Toledo game and will miss the Miami game due to a knee injury.
Though I cannot confirm Fickell didn’t play Miller against Toledo because the QB was named in the NCAA report - particularly after the NCAA’s last-second Toledo game blockade of Hall - you can’t help but wonder if it was a contributing factor.