Given the weekly "Guess the score, win a T-shirt" contest, I found myself wondering what kinds of guesses people make. Unfortunately, it is pretty challenging to just scan through the posted guesses and get a real sense (other than most people pick UM, duh). Thus, I decided to collect the scores and make a graph. The result:
Predictions: Points UM will score (x-axis) vs. Points PSU will score (y-axis)
Click here for a larger version, if you'd like.
Users fill in a score prediction: the points Michigan will score and the points PSU will score. The x-axis of the graph shows the former (Michigan's point total) and the y-axis the latter. The line (y=x) divides the guesses into two groups; those below and to the right picking Michigan to win (and colored "maize") and those above and to the left picking PSU to win (colored "Nittany blue"). Some squares have a number in them: this shows how many people picked that particular score (oops to those who picked it second or later). I also colored my own guess in, in red, and I dropped one score where the guess was something like 127-3 (it would make the graph look bad). The last bits of data were collected around 10:30am this morning; later guesses are thus not included.
The main reason I did this was to be able to field a guess that had some "space" around it; closest to the right score wins, correct? If so, you not only want to guess something realistic but also something where not every spot around you in the graph is taken. Unfortunately, this week I guessed a bit early (before the full sample of data was taken). Had I waited until now, I might rather have guessed something like 50-15, which has a lot of room around it, or perhaps something in the 25-3 range.
Some other stats: Overall, 206 people picked UM; 13 picked PSU. For those that picked UM, the average score was 32.6 to 17.8. Does this collective wisdom serve as a good prediction? We will see. For those that picked PSU, the average score was much closer: 26.5 to 21.7. Three score predictions were most popular: 38-17, 31-20, and 31-16, each picked four times.
[UPDATE: Added "AFS" - actual fucking score - above]
Overcast skies for the morning and into the afternoon. We'll see a few breaks in the clouds, but don't expect much sunshine this Saturday. 60 degrees at lunchtime, and temps are in the mid/upper 60s throughout the afternoon. Scattered drizzle is possible, but most of it looks to remain south of the university. Winds are light out of the east at about 7mph (just enough to make leaves rustle).
Peeks of the sun will be few and far between, but there'll be some moments to see your shadow. 67 degrees for the opening kick, with an east wind still at 7mph. It's a white out at Penn State today, so make sure you're cheering loudly for blue!
Halftime drops us a few degrees, with a little more sunshine. Still going to keep a lot of those clouds around though - we'll call it mostly cloudy. This is our time between systems as the coastal low moves south and the cold front is edging into the Ohio Valley. Good news for the kickers - winds are still out of the east but fall to about 3-5mph (just enough to feel it on your skin).
Close to 60 degrees leaving Beaver Stadium with mostly cloudy skies. Winds are generally out of the east, but very light. Headed out on the town to flaunt that win infront of the nittany lions? Keep that sweatshirt handy! While not extremely chilly, temps drop to 58 by 11pm, and 55 for last call. Winds stay calm to very light, generally easterly. If you're walking home after closing time, skies will be mainly overcast with the approaching cold front, and a passing shower is possible. 8am Sunday will be 54 degrees and cloudy, hitting 60 for lunch. With that weak cold front in the Ohio Valley heading east, expect that drive back to Michigan to be overcast with scattered showers.
If you're staying home... Highs this afternoon in the low 70s, with plenty of sunshine and a southerly wind about 10mph - it's a little nicer here in A2! 70 degrees for the start of the game with mostly sunny skies, 68 at the half. Winds drop throughout the evening to almost calm, remaining southerly until around last call, when we're at 59 degrees. Cloud cover will increase with the cold front passing through, and we also have a light rain shower possible. Although we'll start Sunday with scattered rain, things will clear up for the afternoon. If you're expecting to arrive back from travels, it will be windy - northwest winds at 15mph with gusts around 20mph (small trees sway, you'd see moderate waves on the water). Let's go blue!
Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
Any idea when the Big Ten Network will announce the rest of their football schedule? How many of Nebreska, MSU, NWST, and Iowa are likely to be on the Big Ten Network?
As THE_KNOWLEDGE seems to be lost in both time and space this week, please post your predicting for this weeks game here. It’s always great to see what everyone is expecting from Michigan. Hopefully THE_KNOWLEDGE finds the 1.21 jigawatts needed to return for next week.
This was briefly discussed when speculation broke that Penn State may be the UTL game next year, but I wanted to pose the question: "Could Penn State become a rivalry game for us?"
Starting next year, Penn State and Michigan will be in the same division. This means from a competitive standpoint, they could be a divisional threat in a few years (I can't imagine the program being down for very long once the sanctions expire).
WIth Notre Dame off the schedule for a while, it seems like Penn State could be a team that fills the void left by the Irish. Looking at the following qualifiers...
- IF Penn State recovers as a program and becomes one of the teams we compete with every year to win our division, and
- IF both teams showcase high profile players, and
- IF the games are exciting games year in and year out
...would that be enough to slowly turn Penn State into a rivalry game? They clearly get up for the games whenever we play them, but most shools do.
What do you guys think?
EDIT: Meant to post this on the board... my bad.