somehow we're only 124th
So I have tried to keep a close watch on the recruitment of Brionte Dunn with the help of Mgoblog and others. His recruitment really fascinates me as he seems really torn between the best choice, and the emotional choice.
I'm sure that this has been talked about somewhere, but there is soooo much info out there on him that a thread seemed appropriate. Dunn has been rumored to be an EE but has waivered. The last we hear from him via Sam Webb is that he will indeed be an EE. Is this not the sign that leads to AA? The only reason he was on the fence in the first place was because of the possible sanctions and Bowl ban. Obviously the whole spread thing and Meyer has been quite a development, but I think that is secondary to the sanctions. This being said we know nothing of what the sanctions will for sure be, yet he states he is an EE anyway. Am I missing something here? There is no way he will enter Ohio early without knowing . . . right?
The only possible thing I could think is that he has been tipped off that Ohio will know their fate soon, before EE. Thus depending on what comes from the sanctions he will make his mind up last minute and be on his way bags already packed.
Can anyone else shedd some light on this??
OK, it's Friday and I'm going through UFR withdrawl. Not the past few years the "I don't even wanna hear those 3 letters because OSU whupped us", but the "We just beat OSU, hung 40 on them, and I can't wait to relive it in ridiculous detail" UFR Withdrawl.
That said, make with the UFR Cook!
In the meantime, I figured I'd go all JamieMac and suggest some over unders. If my lines are way off, let me know and I'll adjust them. I'm setting these from memory of watching it live, I haven't seen any replays, so odds are I'll be off on a few. Also I bet Brian is generous with the numbers since we won (at least to offensive players). Also, I have no idea if we're getting the Offensive or Defensive UFR today, so here's everything
Lewan: +8.5, Schofield: +5, Molk: +12, Omameh: +5 ,Huyge: +3.5
Denard: +13.5, Fitz: +8,+5 , Hopkins: +3.5,
Odoms: +5 ,Koger: +4.5 ,Gallon: +3, Hemingway: +3
Roh: +5, Martin +11.5, RVB: +12.5, Heininger: +4, BWC: +3, Black: +4.5
Morgan: +3.5 (Huge both ways), Demens: +4.5, Ryan: +6.5
Countess: -2, Gordon: -4, Woolfolk: -3, Floyd: Even, Kovacs: +5.5, Avery +2.5 (Pick rewarded?)
Offensive RPS: +7
Defensive RPS: Even
Refs: - Eleventy Billion
Edits in the numbers above are underlined. General sentiment thus far is I'm too generous with the defense that gave up 34 points.
Overs? Unders? Any I totally missed on?
According to ESPN, Carl Pelini has agreed to become FAU's new head coach. This, of course, leave a vacancy at Defensive coordinator at Nebraska. The name that seems at the top of the list is Mike Stoops, who is apparently good friends with Bo Pelini. This could create an interesting bidding war between Nebraska and OSU.
We've been talking the last few weeks about what our offense might evolve into over the next 5 years. The consensus seems to be that Michigan will drop the spread and get drop back guys with agility.
My question for the recruiting gurus is this. Is Jayru Campbell on track to be the kind of qb that makes you question your philosophy? I've only seen highlights, but winning the state champ as a freshmen is pretty sick. I know it is a few years off, but is he supposed to be a Pryor like recruit?
If that is the case can you imagine the internet during his recruitment with Meyer vs Hoke and the rumors of promises made and style of play preferences.
It’s not quite the fourth quarter against Notre Dame, but Saturday had as many ups and downs on the Win Chart as any we’ve seen this year.
We’ll go with 5 plays each this week to mark the occasion.
1. Play 112, 14.2%, Robinson to Odoms on 3rd and 11 to give Michigan the lead back for good while the OL gave Denard all day.
2. Play 163, 11.2%, Robinson to Dileo for 28 yards on Michigan’s final drive.
3. Play 22, 11.1%, Robinson runs for 41 yards to tie it up early.
4. Play 165, 9.5%, Robinson runs for 14 yards to keep the clock moving and the drive going late.
5. Play 137, 9.3%, the defense gets in the mix, stopping Miller on 3rd and Goal from the 2, leading to the FG instead of a touchdown.
1. Play 7, –12.8%, Miller goes deep for the first score of the game.
2. Play 95, –12.0%, Miller goes deep a second time to give Ohio a halftime lead.
3. Play 172, –8.8%, Steve Watson’s personal foul pushed 3rd and Goal from difficult to impossible and increases the degree of difficulty on an impending field goal.
4. Play 134, –8.6%, Miller goes for 23 yards to give Ohio 1st and Goal at the 5 late in the third quarter.
5. Play 74, –7.1%, Miller uses my favorite NCAA Football play with an athletic QB, the wrong way speed option for a TD.
Ohio Game Scores
Rushing: +12, tops in Big Ten play and behind only SD St and E Michigan on the year
Passing: +11, second only to Northwestern on the season
Rush Defense: –9, worst score of the season
Pass Defense: –7, only Notre Dame was worse
Special Teams: +3, the late field goal pushed this to the top of the list for this year
Denard: As I tweeted earlier this week, Denard had the 5th best game of any QB this year at +24. It was both his best passing (+13) and best rushing (+11) game of the season. It was only the 7th +10 rushing performance by any QB this year and the first to pair it with a passing number higher then +3!
Toussaint: +1, a solid but not spectacular day.
Miller: Braxton Miller is going to be a force. His +15 (+6/+9) was his best game of the year by 6 points. His three games have been his three best. Had Ohio gone with him from the start Ohio is probably has at least 8 wins now.
Saturday’s +23 was the 9th best opponent adjusted offensive game of the year for any team and the best game in BCS conference play.
Fired Coach Dumb Punt of the Week
Several good candidates this week. Clemson punting from the 35 late in the third trailing by two touchdowns. Ohio punting from the 36 trailing by 6 in the third. This week’s award goes to the $8 Million Dollar Man Mike Sherman who punted from the 41 twice in the second half, going on to blow their
42nd 6th lead of the season and losing the final chapter of the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry on a last second field goal.
Big Ten Projection Recap
Team: Pred W, Pred B1G W
Illinois: 8.0, 4.5
Indiana: 2.9, 0.6
Iowa: 7.8, 4.6
Michigan: 8.0, 4.8
Michigan St: 8.0, 4.7
Minnesota: 3.9, 1.2
Nebraska: 10.1, 6.1
Northwestern: 3.9, 1.7
Ohio: 9.3, 5.8
Penn St: 8.5, 5.2
Purdue: 5.7, 2.7
Wisconsin: 10.3, 6.3
That’s an average error of 1.4 games/team in total and 1.3 in conference play. Ohio was clearly my biggest miss, missing both numbers by about 3 games. Wisconsin was dead on and Iowa, Minnesota, Penn St and Purdue were all pretty close. I had the top and bottom of the Woody division correctly ranked but the middle was a mess. For the Bo division I swapped Nebraska and Sparty both nailed the other 4.
Nationally, picking conference winners went decently. Virginia Tech is favored in the ACC title game, along with other picks of mine like Wisconsin and Oregon. West Virginia is right in the middle of the Big East mess. If Alabama could make a field goal they would be playing for the SEC title and Oklahoma is playing for the Big XII’s BCS berth at bedlam.
In the smaller conferences, Tulsa, Toledo, Boise and Nevada all had shots but fell just short of championships while Troy wasn’t even close in the Sun Belt.
Advanced Metrics All-B1G
Offensive players are listed as PAN (per game)/WPA (total). OL is excluded because I have no stats specific to players. TE are evaluated solely on receiving. Defensive players are listed as Plays/Value (count and magnitude of plays made negative to the offense). Kickers and punters are cumulative for the season.
This is not meant to be absolute, but it is a ranking based solely on the advanced metrics, no judgment calls on my part.
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin +13/+3.4
Montee Ball, Wisconsin +5/+1.2 & Marcus Coker, Iowa +1/+0.7
Drake Dunsmore, Northwestern +3/+0.8
Jeremy Ebert, Northwestern +8/+2.1 & Marvin McNutt, Iowa +7/+1.3 & AJ Jenkins, Illinois +7/+1.3
Broderick Binns, Iowa 47/32 & Whitney Mercilus, Illinois 35/36
Devon Still, Penn St 45/28 & Johnathan Hankins, Ohio 50/21
Jonathan Brown, Illinois 75/41 & Lavonte David, Nebraska 59/29 & Gerald Hodges, Penn St 52/28
Josh Johnson, Purdue 33/21 & Bradley Roby, Ohio 21/27
Brian Peters, Northwestern 32/28 & Drew Astorino, Penn St 34/18
Dan Conroy, Michigan St +12.4
Ben Buchanan, Ohio +10
Denard Robinson, Michigan +7/+3.5
Fitzgerald Toussaint, Michigan +1/+.4 & Rex Burkhead, Nebraska +0/+.3
Jacob Pedersen, Wisconsin +2/+0.3
BJ Cunningham, Michigan St +7/+1.1 & Nick Toon, Wisconsin +6/+1.0 & Da’Jon McKnight, Minnesota +4/+0.8
John Simon, Ohio 40/25 & Michael Buchanan, Illinois 38/18
Mike Daniels, Iowa 40/22 & Akeem Spence, Illinois 40/18
David Nwabuisi, Northwestern 51/21 & Ian Thomas, Illinois 47/20 & Will Compton, Nebraska 49/18
Tavon Wilson, Illinois 28/17 & Ibraheim Campbell, Northwestern 25/17
Jordan Kovacs, Michigan 17/27 & CJ Barnett, Ohio 25/18
Brett Maher, Nebraska +11.8
Cody Webster, Purdue +8
Ryan van Bergen, Mike Martin and Kenny Demens all narrowly missed spots on the second team defense.
Don’t know if articles will be coming weekly, but I have a number of articles and ideas in the hopper for the pre and post-bowl season.
A bowl game preview
The promised Game Theory Manifesto
A 4th down redux, a more detailed look at fourth down decision making with an added tool of offensive and defensive strength sliders for dynamic decision making.
A critique of success rates and the concept of “staying ahead of the chains”
A semi-related post on why I think the running back position is overrated
A more detailed looks at the EV and WPA implications tied to UFR.
EV and WPA by coaches and if I can find a good source of history, coordinators, as well.
Some recruiting themed posts around signing day on the back of a massive recruiting database I am building on the back of my play by play database. I think there is a lot of potential here, just don’t know if I can pull it off.
Any user submitted ideas that are sure to be better than what I have listed so far.
In the wake of Meyer Mania, I need my Ohio schadenfreude fix. I checked the Ohio Supreme Court web site and there are a bunch of new documents regarding the case of ESPN vs Ohio. I am the layest of all laypersons, so I need my lawyer friends to help glean any pertinent information.
I wasn't encouraged by the Meyer press conference where he stated that Gee and Smith assured him no more NCAA penalties are coming. Everyone in Cbus is convinced the NCAA will accept Ohio's self imposed penalties. It is encouraging that everyone from Ohio involved in the process seems to have lied at some point, so why should I believe this. Keep fighting for me ESPN.