that's unfortunate, but at least the interest is there on both sides
Week eleven lines and over/unders are up and that means MGoBlog's 238947324th best weekly post is back.
Recap (game, who covered, by how much, over/under, by how much):
Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State (2.5) over (+23.5)
Michigan @ Minnesota: Michigan (9.5) under (-3.5)
Penn State @ Purdue: Penn State (21.5) under (-8.5)
Nebraska @ Michigan State: Nebraska (2) over (8)
Iowa @ Indiana: Indiana (1.5) under (-10.5)
Notes: No upsets this week.
If you picked last week, see how you did here.
Week Eleven (line listed is for the home team):
Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5)
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53)
Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5)
Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51)
Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47)
For the second week in a row, I have to say Penn State looks good at that line. This may be wishful thinking on my part, but I definitely think Nebraska and Martinez hit a wall enough times that it should go down to the wire. Elsewhere, I'm more confident that Minnesota will beat Illinois handily, and the over looks tempting for Wisconsin v. Indiana.
Texas A&M @ Alabama (-15.5, +/-56)
Oregon @ California (+28, +/-67.5)
Notre Dame @ Boston College (+19, +/-48)
Colorado @ Arizona (-31, +/-68)
Nobody has been willing to put a line on Kansas State v. TCU (Klein).
2 key observations....
"The interior offensive line had a rough day for the Wolverines. On the first drive of the game Elliott Mealer pulled on a running play, but couldn't get to the play in time and Toussaint was tackled for a one-yard gain. Mealer hasn't been able to get to the play a lot this year, yet Al Borges continues to think he can.
Then two plays later Mealer got dominated on third and three and gave up a sack to Ra'Shede Hageman, who simply swatted Mealer away.
Guards Ricky Barnum and Patrick Omameh had similar games. When they pull, they may or may not get to their man. Both lack the necessary mobility to make this running attack work as well as it could.
Denard Robinson does a fantastic job minimizing the offensive line's weaknesses, but nobody else does."
"It continues to be a very dull double-edged sword for Toussaint. Half of the time there is no where for him to run, the other half of the time when there is somewhere to run, he can't make anybody miss."
I am not sure I agree with his assessment of Omameh's mobility since it was his main asset in RR's offense.
Kurt Warner from the NFL Network was on Mike and Mike's radio show this morning discussing the issues with the Philadelphia Eagles. He made an interesting comment about the limitations of the West Coast Offense that I thought were relevant to us in the MIchigan blogsphere.
I'm paraphrasing here obviously, but this is pretty close to what he said:
The West Coast Offense is a very successful offense, but it has limited opportunities to make adjustments at the line. Sometimes when the defense blitzes you find yourself without a good play called to counter what they're doing and there may not be someone to throw to.
Essentially he was saying that when the Saints blitzed there were times when the routes being run by the WR were not giving Vick an obvious option to throw to before he was overwhelmed. He implied that there aren't a lot of play changes available to a West Coast QB. I presume what is supposed to happen is that a WR changes their route when they see blitz and the QB is supposed to know that - which seems like a lot of pressure on both positions.
I assume the interview will be posted here later:
Time to run these again.
Needless to say, this past weekend wasn't kind to Michigan on this front, as Nebraska dodged a bullet and except for Penn State the teams they'll face the rest of the way posted poor results.
The usual caveats apply--this assumes the probabilites are independent for each game, and while that becomes a better approximation as each week goes by it's completely ignoring (among other things) the possibility of a significant injury to a key player. That increases the likelihood of an extreme result and means the division-winning chances for the less likely teams are a little better than they appear here.
Massey win probabilities for the remainder of the season:
- Northwestern 64%
- Iowa 80%
- Ohio State 36%
- Penn State 67%
- Minnesota 92%
- Iowa 77%
- Michigan 36%
- Michigan State 44%
- Illinois 95%
That works out to:
- 3-0 18%
- 2-1 48%
- 1-2 29%
- 0-3 5%
- 3-0 47%
- 2-1 42%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-3 1%
- 3-0 15%
- 2-1 47%
- 1-2 36%
- 0-3 2%
Chances of winning the division are now 85% Nebraska, 13% Michigan, 2% Northwestern.
There are some bizarre possibilities still out there, like a 5-way tie at 4-4 (either Minnesota or MSU has to lose at least 5, since they still have to play each other). None of those possibilities let Minnesota or MSU win the division; they would always lose the divisional-record tiebreaker.
On the leaders side it's:
- Indiana 70%
- Ohio State 46%
- Penn State 51%
- Wisconsin 30%
- Penn State 27%
- Purdue 60%
Odds of winning the division are 77% Wisconsin, 23% Indiana.
Everyone else has been eliminated. There's still a possibility of a 3-way tie if Wisconsin loses out, Indiana loses both non-Wisconsin games, and Purdue or Illinois wins out. If it's Illinois they'll have lost to the other two and Indiana's win over Wisconsin gives them the tiebreaker and a trip to the championship game as a 5-7 team. If it's Purdue, the three teams will have split with each other, Indiana will be ruled out because they'll have the worst record in the division, and Wisconsin will then win the tiebreaker thanks to their win over Purdue.
Team Two will play 8 home games this season, with 5 of them being at Michigan Stadium. This will be Michigan's first season as a full member in the ECAC. They are now eligible for the ECAC Regular-Season and Playoff Championship.
Pretty tough. at Hopkins, at Denver, penn state at Oosterbaan. Battle at The Big House II will take place after the spring game which will play be on 4/13.
^Game at Oosterbaan Field House
* ECAC Conference Game
(ex) Exhibition Game
|2/2||vs Marquette^ (ex)||1pm|
|vs Dension^ (ex)||3:30pm|
|2/9||vs Penn State^||1pm|
|2/23||at Johns Hopkins||1pm|
|3/2||Army (in Miami, FL)||TBA|
|3/6||at High Point||7pm|
|3/17||Colgate (in Flushing, NY)||TBA|
|3/30||vs Air Force*||3pm|
|Battle at The Big House II|
|4/20||vs Saint Joseph's||1pm|
|ECAC Tournament (Geneva, NY)|
This was requested by joeyb in the comments of today's gif post. I'm here to serve (language NSFW):