coaches say you can't, so don't sign a loi
Had the opportunity to watch the Anacostia High School football team play out here in the DC. Some may recall that Cato June returned to DC and is currently in his second year coaching Anacostia.
The team looked great in a 20-14 win. Not surprisingly, they rely on a tough, hard hitting, and stingy defense. They're now 4-3, a nice turnaround after having won just a single game over the past 2 seasons combined. He's really changed the culture at the school as well, with their formerly empty stands consistantly being filled on Friday nights.
Title says it all. Nice to see Stribling getting some recognition, and seeing the coaches find a diamond in the rough this summer:
2. Is there a sleeper in your region who could be getting a bump in our next rankings?
Mike Farrell, National/Mid-Atlantic: Matthews (N.C.) Butler defensive back Channing Stribling was a bit of a reach when Michigan took him, but he has played very well this season and his stock is rising. He was outstanding at Michigan's summer camp, which is why he earned his offer, and he has carried that play over to this season.
MIchigan is the top team in the B1G according to The Sagarin poll. Below I list the PREDICTOR ratings--which are the best in actually predicting game outcomes. I also list the overall national rank according to these ratings.*
1. Michigan (#13 overall, rating 85.33)
2. Ohio (#18 overall, rating 83.15) INELIGIBLE for postseason
3. Neb (#23, rating 81.74)
4. Wisconsin (#27, rating 79.69)
5. PSU (#28, 79.64) ALSO INELIGIBLE for postseason
6. MSU (#36. 77.2)
One predicts the outcome of future games by subtracting the two Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (with + or -3 for Home Field). So, if we play Wisc in INDY for the B1G title, we should be favored by 5-6 points. If Ohio were not ineligible and Michigan played them in INDY, UM would beat Ohio. In Columbus, the game would be essentially a tossup (less than a one point margin). Also, Michigan would be favored over MSU by 8 points on a neutral field and by 11 points this coming week in Ann Arbor (+3 for home field).
I don't know what the Vegas point spread is, but I suspect that it will be smaller, since UM-MSU is a rivalry game.
*Michigan also is #1 when Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings are averaged with the ELO-CHESS ratings. The latter do not consider point margins and are not as good in predicting actual game outcomes. Regrettably, the overall BCS computer rankings use the ELO-CHESS Sagarin ratings--as well as other computer polls that often overweigh WL records and underweigh SOS. So, we will not do as well when the BCS computer rankings come out. However, I do not believe that any of these alternative ranks has been shown to do as well as the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings in forecasting actual game outcomes. And that's what's important in predicting the rest of the UM season.
FWIW Taylor Lewan is listed first in the list of NFL draft stock risers of the week on SI, with a projection of him being potentially the first tackle off the board (which in today's NFL I presume means a top 5 pick at worst).
Sad face as I selfishly held out hope he might not be super-hyped so much so that he'd stay another year, but I would never begrudge a first round pick for leaving early. (frankly, I don't begrudge other folks like Shantee Orr or Ernest Shazor either for doing what they felt they needed to do, just disappoint sometimes for what coulda been)
Anyway, stay safe, NFL donkeys. You're on notice.